There is a falsehood running rampant on this board

[Alphadawg7]

I don't know how many dozen times I've read how Fitzpatrick might be the better option right now because he was consistently willing to take shots downfield and get his WR's involved while Trent refuses to pull the trigger on any sort of long ball. It's been said so many times by so many different posters that's it's simply been accepted as a fact with no evidence to back it up. It didn't seem entirely accurate to me so I just went through the playbyplay of every Bills game this year to see whether or not this is true. And guess what, it isn't. The differential is so slight between the two that it is barely worth mentioning. According to their averages, Fitzpatrick throws downfield 0.3 times per game more than Edwards, which is just slightly above 1 more deep ball per month.

I made no attempts at subjectivity so I wouldn't be tempted to skew the numbers either way. These are purely objective numbers with no mitigating factors such as down/distance, field position, scoreboard or anything else taken into consideration. Just a simple average of how many times each guy goes downfield per game. And they are essentially the same.

Following is the number of down field shots they've each taken.

 

Trent Edwards:

Week #1 - 5 deep balls

Week #2 - 6 deep balls

Week #3 - 2 deep balls (the only anomaly for either guy)

Week #4 - 7 deep balls

Week #5 - 6 deep balls

This is 26 shots downfield in 5 games for an average of 5.2 attempts per game.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick:

Week #6 - 5 deep balls

Week #7 - 6 deep balls

This is 11 shots downfield in 2 games for an average of 5.5 attempts per game.

 

The difference being a grand total of 0.3 deep balls per game or again, just slightly more than 1 deep ball per month.

 

Is it too much to ask that we stop spreading the inaccurate assumption that Fitzpatrick goes downfield more than Edwards? Can we possibly base our arguments in reality and maybe even move the debate forward by using truth as a basis for discussion? I'd say we're likely to come to more accurate conclusions if we can manage that.

 

And as always, this is a troll free thread.

 

Simon, its not the "deep" ball thats the difference, its the downfiled passing to WR's thats the difference. Downfield passing isnt a "deep" ball. Deep passes are a small part of an offense, its the short to mid routes to WR's that seperate Trent and Fitz.

 

More importantly, what your stat check doesnt show you is how often Trent bails on a play at the first sight of pressure and immediately looks to a short checkdown because of his inablility to slide in the pocket and shaken confidence. Fitz manuevers better in the pocket keeping the play alive longer giving his wideouts time to run their routes.

 

Comparing a deep ball to each of them is just a convenient way to skew the comparison.

[Alphadawg7]

Wow, "Simon"! First of all, you must have a LOT of time on your hands, which I don't. However, here's a feeling I have that may or may not be accurate......maybe you could look it up to see if it's true or a falsehood.

 

It SEEMS that Fitzpatrick throws to his wide receivers (i.e. Evans and Owens) more on average per game than Trent Edwards does. I also KNOW that Lee Evans has 2 touchdowns in 1-1/2 games with Fitzpatrick at QB. This SEEMS to be a better average per game than with TE. 2 touchdowns in 1.5 games roughly equates to 21 touchdowns over a full season, whereas 1 touchdown with TE over 4.5 games equals about 3.5 touchdowns for a 16 game season. It also seems that there isn't as much "checking down" with Fitzpatrick than there is with TE (see catches by running backs and tight ends). No, I don't think Fitzpatrick is the long-term answer at QB for the Bills, but I DO think that he gives the Bills a better chance to win week in and week out right now.

 

^^^What he said^^^

[Alphadawg7]

I made no attempt to put my own quantifications on this. I chose consistency by only counting each time the playbyplay (CBS) considered each guy to have thrown a deep ball so that both guys would be judged on identical merits. I'm guessing that CBS counted anything that went 20yrds in the air as a deep ball.

 

Simon, this I find interesting. You just said with certainty that they are about the same while using information that you have no idea what it represents. A "deep" ball may be 17 yards on that play by play listing for instance and you are comparing that to others that were 40 yards in the air. You have no idea how to evaluate that data as you have no point of reference of the length of each pass yet you come to certain conclusions and a decleration of falsehood.

 

More importantly, its not the "deep" ball people say Fitz does better. Its his pass attempts anywhere on the field to WR's...something Trent doesnt do very well. So, while I respect the effort spent looking this up it just doesnt provide any real insight on the difference between Trent and Fitz.

 

In retrospect, they both suck, but Fitz's ability to see the field better and slide in the pocket giving him time to attempt passes to our playmakers gives him the slight edge on who gives us a better chance to win at this current time for me.

[SuperKillerRobots]

CBS, like the official NFL gamebook, uses 15 yards as the cut-off for deep. I don't think that's what a lot of the board means when we say we want Trent to throw deep. So, while I respect the effort you put in and the objectiveness, I don't think it meaningfully settles any dispute.

 

If they use 15 yards, I think that validates the statistic and Simon's point even more. Most people want to say that it's not the "deep" balls, but instead the 10 to 25 yards passes that they wish Trent would throw more of. This statistic should capture that information pretty well, assuming you are right that they consider anything over 15 yards to be "deep".

 

Personally, I would just like to see Edwards throw over the middle and down the seam more, while also looking more to his WRs. I wonder if it is the play-calling, since it seems that more WR short routes are being called with Fitzy in the game, while when Edwards is in, it seems like all the patterns are down the sidelines for the WRs, which means he isn't hitting them short.

[kota]

LOL anyone who thinks Fitz is a better option that Edwards is lying to themself. Yes Fitz was QB for the last 2 wins but that really don't have anything to do with it. The turnovers made us win the game not the guy throwing the rock.

[Mickey]

I made no attempt to put my own quantifications on this. I chose consistency by only counting each time the playbyplay (CBS) considered each guy to have thrown a deep ball so that both guys would be judged on identical merits. I'm guessing that CBS counted anything that went 20yrds in the air as a deep ball.

i don't think that is "identical", wetre the announcers the same for all those games?

 

i think if you go to the nfl.com play by play they show the distance to the catch and the rac.

[baseballbob]

Ummmmm.......I'm not Simon.........

 

Yeah, I know....sorry about that!

[Mickey]

I don't know how many dozen times I've read how Fitzpatrick might be the better option right now because he was consistently willing to take shots downfield and get his WR's involved while Trent refuses to pull the trigger on any sort of long ball. It's been said so many times by so many different posters that's it's simply been accepted as a fact with no evidence to back it up. It didn't seem entirely accurate to me so I just went through the playbyplay of every Bills game this year to see whether or not this is true. And guess what, it isn't. The differential is so slight between the two that it is barely worth mentioning. According to their averages, Fitzpatrick throws downfield 0.3 times per game more than Edwards, which is just slightly above 1 more deep ball per month.

I made no attempts at subjectivity so I wouldn't be tempted to skew the numbers either way. These are purely objective numbers with no mitigating factors such as down/distance, field position, scoreboard or anything else taken into consideration. Just a simple average of how many times each guy goes downfield per game. And they are essentially the same.

Following is the number of down field shots they've each taken.

 

Trent Edwards:

Week #1 - 5 deep balls

Week #2 - 6 deep balls

Week #3 - 2 deep balls (the only anomaly for either guy)

Week #4 - 7 deep balls

Week #5 - 6 deep balls

This is 26 shots downfield in 5 games for an average of 5.2 attempts per game.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick:

Week #6 - 5 deep balls

Week #7 - 6 deep balls

This is 11 shots downfield in 2 games for an average of 5.5 attempts per game.

 

The difference being a grand total of 0.3 deep balls per game or again, just slightly more than 1 deep ball per month.

 

Is it too much to ask that we stop spreading the inaccurate assumption that Fitzpatrick goes downfield more than Edwards? Can we possibly base our arguments in reality and maybe even move the debate forward by using truth as a basis for discussion? I'd say we're likely to come to more accurate conclusions if we can manage that.

 

And as always, this is a troll free thread.

I had the tine to look at the first game play by play at nfl.com. There were 5 balls they called deep but one of those was only 19 yards. That one and another were on the last "drive" when we were behind with only one time out. One of those was the last play, the attempted fumblerooski. There were only 3 deep balls and one of those was for only 21 yards.

 

I know that Ryan appears to be less quick to the checkdown, so far anyway, but neither has played particularly well and our offense has been pretty lame all year with the exception of the first two games.

[baseballbob]

Just calculated the throws to WR's in another thread because folks seem to think Fitz throws to his WR's more then TE.

 

TE has the slight edge, Fitz 7.5 receptions to a WR per game, TE 7.8 receptions to a WR per game.

 

 

Yo Simon, you should post more...

 

I don't think we're talking about RECEPTIONS per game, I think we're talking about attempts THROWN TO wr's per game. I'd be interested in looking at those numbers. And take out Josh Reed's numbers...

[Guest dog14787]

QUOTE (I Billieve @ Oct 27 2009, 12:06 PM) *

This is proof that both are terrible...

 

Trent Edwards career stats.

QB rating 78.0

TD's 23

INT's 24

Completion rate 61%

30 starts with 54 sacks and 14 fumbles

 

Ryan fitzpatrick career stats.

QB rating 66.8

TD's 14

INT's 18

Completion rate 57.4%

16 starts with 49 sacks (38 in the 13 games he played w/ 2008 begals) with 14 fumbles.

 

 

I would prefer another option but given the 2, I would rather give Fitzy a chance (meaning a few games) to see if he can prove himself to be better than his stats suggest...a task trent has been unable to do in 3 years.

 

 

I wanted to repeat this fellas post because it gives the impression that in their career so far, Fitz has been almost twice as bad as TE when it comes to getting sacked. ( Fitz also fumbles almost twice as much )

 

Note: I did not verify his stats

 

 

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick is the Buffalo Bills starting QB now and I just wouldn't feel right If I didn't say something positive on his behalf. I'm going to compare him to my biggest hero, something I do allot, but to me there is no one better, not a better man thats ever stepped onto the football field or on the face of this Earth for that matter, at least in my opinion anyway.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick shows the courage reminiscent of Jim Kelly to stand in the pocket and deliver the football regardless of whats going on around him. Fitzpatrick shows the courage reminiscent of Jim Kelly to trust in his receiver's to make a play.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has better wheels then Jim Kelly ever did but lets make one thing perfectly clear,

 

 

There is no QB now or that has ever played the game that's BETTER in my heart and in my mind then Jim Kelly of the Buffalo Bills...

[LongLiveRalph]

Whatever the reasons are, Trent has not thrown down the seam or deep over the middle since the 1st quarter of the Monday Night game vs. Cleveland last season. That game damaged him, and it has looked beyond repair this season.

 

Granted, he is already on his third offensive coordinator, but I'm not sure if that is better or worse. On one hand, it could be an excuse/reason that Trent hasn't gotten comfortable. On the other hand, it further drives home the point that regardless of the scheme/playcalling, Trent is going to throw short and safe the majority of the time.

 

Let's not forget, Edwards only looked good in the first place when compared to Losman, a spazzy, confused QB who couldn't get a job as a backup in the NFL the very next year.

 

Seeing as we are heading for an uncapped season, I don't expect the Bills to be in a bidding war for an available free agent QB, considering the money an open market would demand. Therefore, I'm bracing for another hopeful draft pick and three years of inconsistency until we know what we have with the next guy.

[garbag3man]

Whatever the reasons are, Trent has not thrown down the seam or deep over the middle since the 1st quarter of the Monday Night game vs. Cleveland last season. That game damaged him, and it has looked beyond repair this season.

 

Granted, he is already on his third offensive coordinator, but I'm not sure if that is better or worse. On one hand, it could be an excuse/reason that Trent hasn't gotten comfortable. On the other hand, it further drives home the point that regardless of the scheme/playcalling, Trent is going to throw short and safe the majority of the time.

 

Let's not forget, Edwards only looked good in the first place when compared to Losman, a spazzy, confused QB who couldn't get a job as a backup in the NFL the very next year.

 

Seeing as we are heading for an uncapped season, I don't expect the Bills to be in a bidding war for an available free agent QB, considering the money an open market would demand. Therefore, I'm bracing for another hopeful draft pick and three years of inconsistency until we know what we have with the next guy.

 

What does it matter, everyone will be calling for this new draft picks head after 4 weeks. I am not saying Trent is good, and I have been here hoping for Max Hall, but there is a very good chance that quarterback isn't going to be good for a few years, but no Bills fans seem to have the patience for that. We don't have the answer but we have to stop calling for QB's heads and find out if maybe we have the answer, and just need a few years for him to learn.

[Kelly the Dog]

I don't think we're talking about RECEPTIONS per game, I think we're talking about attempts THROWN TO wr's per game. I'd be interested in looking at those numbers. And take out Josh Reed's numbers...

 

Welcome to the board, Baseball Bob. I once met a bartender in DC of the same moniker, so named because "he was thrown out at home so many times."

[Lori]

I don't know how many dozen times I've read how Fitzpatrick might be the better option right now because he was consistently willing to take shots downfield and get his WR's involved while Trent refuses to pull the trigger on any sort of long ball. It's been said so many times by so many different posters that's it's simply been accepted as a fact with no evidence to back it up. It didn't seem entirely accurate to me so I just went through the playbyplay of every Bills game this year to see whether or not this is true. And guess what, it isn't. The differential is so slight between the two that it is barely worth mentioning. According to their averages, Fitzpatrick throws downfield 0.3 times per game more than Edwards, which is just slightly above 1 more deep ball per month.

I made no attempts at subjectivity so I wouldn't be tempted to skew the numbers either way. These are purely objective numbers with no mitigating factors such as down/distance, field position, scoreboard or anything else taken into consideration. Just a simple average of how many times each guy goes downfield per game. And they are essentially the same.

Following is the number of down field shots they've each taken.

 

Trent Edwards:

Week #1 - 5 deep balls

Week #2 - 6 deep balls

Week #3 - 2 deep balls (the only anomaly for either guy)

Week #4 - 7 deep balls

Week #5 - 6 deep balls

This is 26 shots downfield in 5 games for an average of 5.2 attempts per game.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick:

Week #6 - 5 deep balls

Week #7 - 6 deep balls

This is 11 shots downfield in 2 games for an average of 5.5 attempts per game.

 

The difference being a grand total of 0.3 deep balls per game or again, just slightly more than 1 deep ball per month.

 

Is it too much to ask that we stop spreading the inaccurate assumption that Fitzpatrick goes downfield more than Edwards? Can we possibly base our arguments in reality and maybe even move the debate forward by using truth as a basis for discussion? I'd say we're likely to come to more accurate conclusions if we can manage that.

 

And as always, this is a troll free thread.

I don't have time to do 'em all, because I'm already late on deadline because of the road trip, but...

 

Week 1, Edwards @NE:

passes - to 0 yds: 4-6

1-5: 4-7

6-10: 4-7

11-15: 1-1

16-20: 2-4

21+: 0-0

Total: 4 of 25 attempts 16+ yards beyond the LOS.

 

Week 7, Fitzpatrick @CAR:

<=0: 3-5

1-5: 4-5

6-10: 1-2

11-15: 1-3

16-20: 1-2

21+: 1-5

Total: 7 of 22 attempts 16+ yards beyond the LOS.

 

 

Those yardages are for pass length ONLY, no RAC. As you can see, Edwards never threw a pass over 20 yards vs. NE -- in fact, discounting the 19-yard completion to Josh Reed that was called back by penalty, he never completed a pass more than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage (and attempted only three) until making throws of 19 and 18 yards on the final drive.

 

Against Carolina, Fitzpatrick attempted passes that traveled 42, 21, 40, 27, and 44 yards in the air beyond the line of scrimmage, with the final one being the 50-yard completion to Evans.

 

Source: NFL GSIS. Don't know if these links are password-protected, but...

NE game

CAR game

 

In sum, based on that admittedly limited data sample, it is neither an assumption nor inaccurate to say that Fitzpatrick throws more "deep" balls than Edwards.

[Guest dog14787]

I don't have time to do 'em all, because I'm already late on deadline because of the road trip, but...

 

Week 1, Edwards @NE:

passes - to 0 yds: 4-6

1-5: 4-7

6-10: 4-7

11-15: 1-1

16-20: 2-4

21+: 0-0

Total: 4 of 25 attempts 16+ yards beyond the LOS.

 

Week 7, Fitzpatrick @CAR:

<=0: 3-5

1-5: 4-5

6-10: 1-2

11-15: 1-3

16-20: 1-2

21+: 1-5

Total: 7 of 22 attempts 16+ yards beyond the LOS.

 

 

Those yardages are for pass length ONLY, no RAC. As you can see, Edwards never threw a pass over 20 yards vs. NE -- in fact, discounting the 19-yard completion to Josh Reed that was called back by penalty, he never completed a pass more than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage (and attempted only three) until making throws of 19 and 18 yards on the final drive.

 

Against Carolina, Fitzpatrick attempted passes that traveled 42, 21, 40, 27, and 44 yards in the air beyond the line of scrimmage, with the final one being the 50-yard completion to Evans.

 

Source: NFL GSIS. Don't know if these links are password-protected, but...

NE game

CAR game

 

In sum, based on that admittedly limited data sample, it is neither an assumption nor inaccurate to say that Fitzpatrick throws more "deep" balls than Edwards.

 

 

With all due respect, the Defense's you play week to week tends to dictate what you do successfully as an offense. Given that, the averaged out play over a longer time frame would give you a fairer representation of the two QB's capabilities and tendencies than pulling two games out of a hat against totally different teams and trying to compare them in my opinion.

 

Unless maybe I'm misunderstanding you.

[thebug]

I went hunting with some buddies, I am a little more confident in my shooting from long range so I take more chances on longer shots. I hit all. But hey I tried

[Lori]

With all due respect, the Defense's you play week to week tends to dictate what you do successfully as an offense. Given that, the averaged out play over a longer time frame would give you a fairer representation of the two QB's capabilities and tendencies than pulling two games out of a hat against totally different teams and trying to compare them in my opinion.

 

Unless maybe I'm misunderstanding you.

I'm not the one who decided to compare the numbers from week to week. You'll need to take that up with Simon.

 

That said, the "five deep balls" he cited in Week 1 traveled 19, 16, 13, 19, and 18 yards past the LOS (unless he's counting the 19-yarder nullified by penalty instead of the 13-yarder, which is OK by me). The "six deep balls" from Week 7 traveled 20, 42, 21, 40, 27, and 44 yards past the LOS. (They apparently didn't list an 18-yarder as such.)

 

Okay, so that makes the cutoff somewhere around 15 yards. In the Jets game, one of seven Edwards passes -- the incomplete 30-yarder to Owens, nullified by the penalty on Revis -- traveled 15 or more yards past the LOS. Same criteria for Fitzpatrick: 6-for-25 (17, 15, 17, 27, 16, 29). The 37-yard TD to Evans doesn't count as it was caught at the NYJ 30, thus only traveling 7 yards past the LOS in the air.

 

I should probably also note that the bombs-per-game numbers do not take into account the total number of passing attempts: 25, 31, 35, 26, and 31 in Edwards' five complete games, versus Fitzpatrick's 25 (in roughly a game's worth of work against the Jets) and 22.

 

I'm not about to use those numbers to prop up Fitzgerald as a better option, but I will argue that the difference is not statistically insignificant -- which I thought was the entire point of my friend Simon's post.

[Dan]

With all due respect, the Defense's you play week to week tends to dictate what you do successfully as an offense. Given that, the averaged out play over a longer time frame would give you a fairer representation of the two QB's capabilities and tendencies than pulling two games out of a hat against totally different teams and trying to compare them in my opinion.

 

Unless maybe I'm misunderstanding you.

What are you saying, Trent... you take what the defense gives you?

 

While I agree, your gameplan should change week to week to take advantage of the defense you're facing; that doesn't mean you allow the defense to dictate what you do. Do that and you lose. Yes, sometimes a defense may be shifting coverage to your best WR, but that doesn't mean you don't try to get him involved in the offense. You have to dictate to them, not the other way around.

 

On your second point, it's difficult to average out the plays over a longer time frame considering that Fitzy has only started one game and played roughly half of another.

[Tcali]

I'm not the one who decided to compare the numbers from week to week. You'll need to take that up with Simon.

 

That said, the "five deep balls" he cited in Week 1 traveled 19, 16, 13, 19, and 18 yards past the LOS (unless he's counting the 19-yarder nullified by penalty instead of the 13-yarder, which is OK by me). The "six deep balls" from Week 7 traveled 20, 42, 21, 40, 27, and 44 yards past the LOS. (They apparently didn't list an 18-yarder as such.)

 

Okay, so that makes the cutoff somewhere around 15 yards. In the Jets game, one of seven Edwards passes -- the incomplete 30-yarder to Owens, nullified by the penalty on Revis -- traveled 15 or more yards past the LOS. Same criteria for Fitzpatrick: 6-for-25 (17, 15, 17, 27, 16, 29). The 37-yard TD to Evans doesn't count as it was caught at the NYJ 30, thus only traveling 7 yards past the LOS in the air.

 

I should probably also note that the bombs-per-game numbers do not take into account the total number of passing attempts: 25, 31, 35, 26, and 31 in Edwards' five complete games, versus Fitzpatrick's 25 (in roughly a game's worth of work against the Jets) and 22.

 

I'm not about to use those numbers to prop up Fitzgerald as a better option, but I will argue that the difference is not statistically insignificant -- which I thought was the entire point of my friend Simon's post.

watch out darryl lamonica

[Guest dog14787]

I'm not the one who decided to compare the numbers from week to week. You'll need to take that up with Simon.

 

That said, the "five deep balls" he cited in Week 1 traveled 19, 16, 13, 19, and 18 yards past the LOS (unless he's counting the 19-yarder nullified by penalty instead of the 13-yarder, which is OK by me). The "six deep balls" from Week 7 traveled 20, 42, 21, 40, 27, and 44 yards past the LOS. (They apparently didn't list an 18-yarder as such.)

 

Okay, so that makes the cutoff somewhere around 15 yards. In the Jets game, one of seven Edwards passes -- the incomplete 30-yarder to Owens, nullified by the penalty on Revis -- traveled 15 or more yards past the LOS. Same criteria for Fitzpatrick: 6-for-25 (17, 15, 17, 27, 16, 29). The 37-yard TD to Evans doesn't count as it was caught at the NYJ 30, thus only traveling 7 yards past the LOS in the air.

 

I should probably also note that the bombs-per-game numbers do not take into account the total number of passing attempts: 25, 31, 35, 26, and 31 in Edwards' five complete games, versus Fitzpatrick's 25 (in roughly a game's worth of work against the Jets) and 22.

 

I'm not about to use those numbers to prop up Fitzgerald as a better option, but I will argue that the difference is not statistically insignificant -- which I thought was the entire point of my friend Simon's post.

 

 

I wasn't really sure what your interpretation was, seemed more in favor of the Fitz Followers to me and I didn't have any problem with how Simon derived at his conclusions.

 

Just pointing out your way of comparison was different then Simons and his way of comparison was more accurate in my opinion that's all, didn't mean to drag you into a drawn out explanation, my bad.