There is a falsehood running rampant on this board

[Clippers of Nfl]

I don't know how many dozen times I've read how Fitzpatrick might be the better option right now because he was consistently willing to take shots downfield and get his WR's involved while Trent refuses to pull the trigger on any sort of long ball. It's been said so many times by so many different posters that's it's simply been accepted as a fact with no evidence to back it up. It didn't seem entirely accurate to me so I just went through the playbyplay of every Bills game this year to see whether or not this is true. And guess what, it isn't. The differential is so slight between the two that it is barely worth mentioning. According to their averages, Fitzpatrick throws downfield 0.3 times per game more than Edwards, which is just slightly above 1 more deep ball per month.

I made no attempts at subjectivity so I wouldn't be tempted to skew the numbers either way. These are purely objective numbers with no mitigating factors such as down/distance, field position, scoreboard or anything else taken into consideration. Just a simple average of how many times each guy goes downfield per game. And they are essentially the same.

Following is the number of down field shots they've each taken.

 

Trent Edwards:

Week #1 - 5 deep balls

Week #2 - 6 deep balls

Week #3 - 2 deep balls (the only anomaly for either guy)

Week #4 - 7 deep balls

Week #5 - 6 deep balls

This is 26 shots downfield in 5 games for an average of 5.2 attempts per game.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick:

Week #6 - 5 deep balls

Week #7 - 6 deep balls

This is 11 shots downfield in 2 games for an average of 5.5 attempts per game.

 

The difference being a grand total of 0.3 deep balls per game or again, just slightly more than 1 deep ball per month.

 

Is it too much to ask that we stop spreading the inaccurate assumption that Fitzpatrick goes downfield more than Edwards? Can we possibly base our arguments in reality and maybe even move the debate forward by using truth as a basis for discussion? I'd say we're likely to come to more accurate conclusions if we can manage that.

 

And as always, this is a troll free thread.

how many attempts total?

example: game 1, 5 deep vs 35 total attempted? that would be considered low. game 7, 6 deep vs 12 tries. that would be considered high.

 

anyway way too much time on your hands simon. thanks for posting.

[Clippers of Nfl]

Trent has 153 attempts, Fitzpatrick 47.

 

26/153 = 0.17

11/47 = 0.23

 

In 153 attempts, Fitz will have thrown 35 deep ballProxy-Connection: keep-alive

Cache-Control: max-age=0

 

to Trent's 26.

 

I guess.

 

the big cat should be more like that smart cat. this is actually correct.

comparing total attempts would give u a real #.

trent threw 26 long balls (not really long anyway)

fitz would have thrown 35 long balls had he had as many attempts as trent.

 

so actually the rumor is not really a rumor. its a fact. fitz throws more deep balls than trent. PERIOD!

 

big cat, u beat me to it....

[Simon]

anyway way too much time on your hands simon.

 

Yeah, it took almost 20 minutes.

I forget that's a lifetime for your instant gratification generation.

 

 

trent threw 26 long balls (not really long anyway)

fitz would have thrown 35 long balls had he had as many attempts as trent.

 

You must have missed the part where I said I dealt with only actual numbers.

Not extrapolated guesses into the future.

 

Edit: You must have also missed the part where I mentioned this was a troll free thread.

Take a powder junior.

(that means get out of my thread and go babble about pet meds somewhere else))

[Dan]

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/index.php?...t&p=1615656

 

Cliff's Notes version:

 

Edwards has thrown just under half his passes at WRs, with about a quarter each going towards RBs and TEs.

 

Fitzpatrick has targeted over 80% of his passes at WRs, with about 12% going at RBs and about 6% going at TEs.

 

No guarantee that Fitz's numbers continue at this pace, but so far, the difference is extreme.

Excellent points made and interesting pass distribution.

 

Not going in depth into your fine work, just wanted to mention I enjoyed your stylish bullets.

Thanks for noticing. I was hoping someone would appreciate the effort I made at making up those bullets.

[Clippers of Nfl]

3C. In reference to the last statement, many of us have pondered... is Trent being coached to throw the dump offs or are the WRs just not open down field. Well, Fitzy, has shown that WRs sare indeed open and Jauron doesn't insist that the ball be checked down at all costs. For proof that Trent checks down more than Fitzy, I prefer to look at the number of RB recpetions:

 

Week 1 - FJ (5)

Week 2 - FJ (6)

Week 3 - FJ (5)

Week 4 - ML (5); FJ (3)

Week 5 - ML (6); FJ (2)

Week 6 - ML (2); CM (2)

Week 7 - ML (1)

 

wow Dan. this is a very insteresting stat. thanks for taking your time to run these #s. really!

 

ps. so after all the data i basically came to this conclusion. trent does not throw deep balls. fitz does. trent dinks and dunks to rbs. fitz doesnt.

[BillsVet]

I think Trent has way more potential.But yes Fitz plays gutsier. Sad that Trent has become Jauronized.-And I agree the QB we need isn't on the roster. -I thought Trent could become a very solid system QB in this league--with savvy and intellect to make up for his barely average gun.But that's probbly over with.

 

It's hard to fathom that a QB with Owens and Evans would throw so often to his backs and TE's. The only thing I can think of is that DJ is in TE's head so much, he won't take risks for fear of any type mistake.

 

There are so many variables involved that someone can pick apart TE versus RF. I think if we look at yards per attempt and yards per completion, we'll find it validates Simon's information. Fitz's YPA is 5.09, whereas TE's is 6.44. Edwards' 91 completions have gone for 985 yards, or about 10.9 ypc. RF's 21 completions have gone for 239 yards, or 11 ypc.

 

Fitz's YPA is brutal, although his sample is much smaller. I'd like to see what he does, but it's clear he's not a long term answer at QB.

[Maddog69]

Did you see what Fitz did in the first half? I believe we had 1 first down. He was awful.

 

Good thing they play 2 halves. Remind again what the final score was ?

[toddgurley]

Trent has 153 attempts, Fitzpatrick 47.

 

26/153 = 0.17

11/47 = 0.23

 

In 153 attempts, Fitz will have thrown 35 deep ballProxy-Connection: keep-alive

Cache-Control: max-age=0

 

to Trent's 26.

 

I guess.

 

 

now this is a stat. 35 to 26 seems pretty significant to me

[toddgurley]

Did you see what Fitz did in the first half? I believe we had 1 first down. He was awful.

 

 

 

you obviously did not see the "whole" browns game that Trent played. I think if Fitzs plays that game, we win. Just my opinion-

[dave mcbride]

Fitz also played against two pretty good defenses, on the road. Not that I think he is good, mind you. Far from it. But he made the plays when he needed to that produced wins and didnt turn the ball over.

Actually, he threw an INT in OT vs. the Jets, and he threw another one earlier that was called back on a pretty ticky tack penalty.

[Simon]

Actually, he threw an INT in OT vs. the Jets, and he threw another one earlier that was called back on a pretty ticky tack penalty.

 

At midfield in OT no less. And on a slant to Evans that everybody has been begging him to throw more, whether it's open or not.

Somehow this ride just gets crazier every year.

[AF88Bills]

It's hard to fathom that a QB with Owens and Evans would throw so often to his backs and TE's.

 

Yeah, it would be something if we kept the chains moving, but we don't. Also, it is more than frustrating when you keep seeing Derek Fine targeted for dumpoff 3 yrd out passes....If you're throwing to Derek Fine when you have TO and Lee Evans, something is wrong....whether it is scheme, QB play, or coaching...you can't settle for throwing to Derek fine.

[dave mcbride]

At midfield in OT no less. And on a slant to Evans that everybody has been begging him to throw more, whether it's open or not.

Somehow this ride just gets crazier every year.

I will say that he does seem less timid out there than Edwards. The one great thing about playing for Martz is that he teaches not to sweat the occasional INT. Since Jauron's whole game is predicated on ball control and eking it out at the end, QBs probably feel like dirt when they throw INTs. For has last couple/few INTs, TE looked like was just told that one of his grandparents had died immediately after the pick. His whole game has been shaped by the Jauronball philosophy, so I guess it's no surprise.

[Bart]

I don't know how many dozen times I've read how Fitzpatrick might be the better option right now because he was consistently willing to take shots downfield and get his WR's involved while Trent refuses to pull the trigger on any sort of long ball. It's been said so many times by so many different posters that's it's simply been accepted as a fact with no evidence to back it up. It didn't seem entirely accurate to me so I just went through the playbyplay of every Bills game this year to see whether or not this is true. And guess what, it isn't. The differential is so slight between the two that it is barely worth mentioning. According to their averages, Fitzpatrick throws downfield 0.3 times per game more than Edwards, which is just slightly above 1 more deep ball per month.

I made no attempts at subjectivity so I wouldn't be tempted to skew the numbers either way. These are purely objective numbers with no mitigating factors such as down/distance, field position, scoreboard or anything else taken into consideration. Just a simple average of how many times each guy goes downfield per game. And they are essentially the same.

Following is the number of down field shots they've each taken.

 

Trent Edwards:

Week #1 - 5 deep balls

Week #2 - 6 deep balls

Week #3 - 2 deep balls (the only anomaly for either guy)

Week #4 - 7 deep balls

Week #5 - 6 deep balls

This is 26 shots downfield in 5 games for an average of 5.2 attempts per game.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick:

Week #6 - 5 deep balls

Week #7 - 6 deep balls

This is 11 shots downfield in 2 games for an average of 5.5 attempts per game.

 

The difference being a grand total of 0.3 deep balls per game or again, just slightly more than 1 deep ball per month.

 

Is it too much to ask that we stop spreading the inaccurate assumption that Fitzpatrick goes downfield more than Edwards? Can we possibly base our arguments in reality and maybe even move the debate forward by using truth as a basis for discussion? I'd say we're likely to come to more accurate conclusions if we can manage that.

 

And as always, this is a troll free thread.

 

Perception is reality. How many more does Fitz complete than Trent? Anyone can throw the ball but accuracy is what counts. Do the math.

[dave mcbride]

Perception is reality. How many more does Fitz complete than Trent? Anyone can throw the ball but accuracy is what counts. Do the math.

?

 

Fitzpatrick has complete one deep pass so far, right?

[ganesh]

The things I liked about fitz:

 

1. He seem to move a little better in the pocket, and didn't his head ripped off. Pass protection is not just the O-line's job.

2. He gave his wide recievers a chance. I'm tired of seeing 2 studs on offense not even get a sniff of the ball, becuase that's not what the defense is giving us.

 

I don't think Fitz was anything special, but he's also done just enough to eke out 2 wins. that's the bottom line.

 

I would like to know what is the Stats for TO with Edwards and Fitz.

[Kelly the Dog]

Actually, he threw an INT in OT vs. the Jets, and he threw another one earlier that was called back on a pretty ticky tack penalty.

 

 

Didnt think interceptions that were called back were interceptions. He did have the one in OT, yes. I just meant he hasnt been turning the ball over much. Whether it is just luck, or whether it will continue we don't know. And I think he stinks and have said it numerous times. But he has made the plays, If Trent made any kind of plays in the Browns game, we win.

[Mark Vader]

The statistic I like to cite has a 10-year sample size.

 

Trent Edwards was drafted by the Buffalo Bills in the decade of the 00's. Chances are, he sucks.

Ryan Fitzpatrick was drafted by the Saint Louis Rams in the decade of the 00's. What does that say about him?

[Aplusfool]

Any backup QB in the NFL should win a football game averaging 5 turnovers per game.

 

I remember Monday Night at home vs Dallas.

[Guest dog14787]

I remember Monday Night at home vs Dallas.

 

 

I'm still trying to forget that one