JDG Posted September 28, 2009 Posted September 28, 2009 I've received a little bit of flack for my statement that a loss in an NFC game is not as important as a loss in an AFC game, and so we shouldn't stress out too much where this loss leaves us in the standings. The reason for this is a quirk of the NFL's playoff tiebreaking system. [insert Jim Mora "Playoffs?" joke here.] Yes, its never too early to begin thinking about the playoffs. The whole point of the entire season is to make the playoffs? And noone actually believes that these Bills are likely to make a run to 12-4 or better record that would likely leave the playoffs a moot point, right? If the Bills are to sneak into the playoffs (and that's exactly what it would be), it would involve tiebreakers. In terms of a Wildcard berth, the second tiebreaker after head-to-head goes to the team that loses the most NFC games. This is a little less important in Division Tiebreakers (you need to win games in your Division), but it can sometimes play a role there as well too. To explain, let me lay out just one scenario where this comes into play. Imagine a Week 17 scenario where Team A is 10-5 and has a 2-1 NFC record and lets say Team B is 9-6 with a 3-1 NFC Record. Team A and Team B did not meet head-to-head, and are the only two teams competing for the last Wildcard Berth. Now, let's say that Team A has an NFC game in Week 17. If Tean A wins, they go to 11-5 and clinch the playoff berth. If Team A loses, they go to 10-6 with a 2-2 NFC record - and still clinch a playoff berth by having more NFC losses than Team B In other words, that Week 17 game was meaningless for Team A in this scenario. And this is just one such scenario. Now obviously, if the game was meaningless in Week 17, then the same game was just as meaningless in Week 3 - we just didn't know it yet. Don't get me wrong, its always better to win than to lose. Winning always benefits you in the standings. I am just pointing out, however, that in the quirky world of NFL tiebreakers sometimes an NFC loss ends up not hurting you in the standings. Of course, there's no way to tell just yet..... but the point is that unlike a Division Loss (i.e. next week against Miami), which *always* hurts you in the standings, sometimes these NFC games essentially end up having been meaningless games for your team by the end of the season. JDG
BillsVet Posted September 28, 2009 Posted September 28, 2009 Did anyone say, "it's just a NFC game" last year when Buffalo defeated the terrible Rams early last year? Did anyone say "it's just a NFC game" when SF beat Buffalo 10-3 last year? The answers are no and no respectively. Win the games. Or have DJ coach your team and lost to AFCE games, AFC games, and NFC games.
SwampD Posted September 28, 2009 Posted September 28, 2009 [in Jim Mora voice]"Tiebreaker?!?!Tiebreaker?!?!!"
JDG Posted September 28, 2009 Author Posted September 28, 2009 Did anyone say, "it's just a NFC game" last year when Buffalo defeated the terrible Rams early last year? Did anyone say "it's just a NFC game" when SF beat Buffalo 10-3 last year? The answers are no and no respectively. Well, I did. In fact, the Bills 4-0 start included two wins over NFC teams. With that being said, I also hoped at that time that the road win over Jacksonville was a harbinger of a young team that would get better as the season progressed, and begin racking up the division and AFC wins actually needed for a playoff berth. Obviously, that didn't happen.... Coming into this year, I was hopeful about the fact that two of the three games Marshawn Lynch was suspended for were NFC games. That also meant two games for the Bills to iron out the kinks of the new offense, and get valuable experience for the young O-Line. Unfortunately, rather than developing young players, the Bills seem to getting vast numbers of their players hurt.... Now that the Saints game is behind us, there is simply no diminishing the importance of getting a win next week in Miami. But yes, I'll freely admit that the diminished importance of inter-Conference play relative to all other games is not yet widely recognized in the football media mainstream. JDG
Delete This Account Posted September 28, 2009 Posted September 28, 2009 but how does that formula work when, say, a team such as the Bills enters Week 17 and is 7-8 and mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. ... must i once again pull out my "obvious" formula? jw
K-9 Posted September 28, 2009 Posted September 28, 2009 Yes, you have to win all the games. When there are only 16 games each one has magnitude. I agree with the OP, though. While ALL losses impact heavily in such a short regular season, some WINS have more weight inherently. In order of importance they are Divisional wins (BOTH division AND conference) Conference wins Intra-conference wins That said, yesterday was downright fugly. Regardless. GO BILLS!!!
SDS Posted September 28, 2009 Posted September 28, 2009 it's just confusing because in reality - they are looking for MORE AFC wins. It doesn't sound right when it is phrased the team with the most NFC losses wins!
CodeMonkey Posted September 28, 2009 Posted September 28, 2009 If you changed the title to: Relax, It Was Just an NFC Game Meaning don't take it so seriously, it's not life and death I could get behind you. But given the fact that the Jets are now 3-0 and looking pretty damn good doing it. And the cheatriats are 2-1 and have beaten us once already this season. Your basic premise just doesn't work, no matter how many "what if's" you can come up with.
Beerball Posted September 28, 2009 Posted September 28, 2009 Well, I did. In fact, the Bills 4-0 start included two wins over NFC teams. With that being said, I also hoped at that time that the road win over Jacksonville was a harbinger of a young team that would get better as the season progressed, and begin racking up the division and AFC wins actually needed for a playoff berth. Obviously, that didn't happen.... Coming into this year, I was hopeful about the fact that two of the three games Marshawn Lynch was suspended for were NFC games. That also meant two games for the Bills to iron out the kinks of the new offense, and get valuable experience for the young O-Line. Unfortunately, rather than developing young players, the Bills seem to getting vast numbers of their players hurt.... Now that the Saints game is behind us, there is simply no diminishing the importance of getting a win next week in Miami. But yes, I'll freely admit that the diminished importance of inter-Conference play relative to all other games is not yet widely recognized in the football media mainstream. JDG 2-23
nucci Posted September 28, 2009 Posted September 28, 2009 If you changed the title to: Relax, It Was Just an NFC Game Meaning don't take it so seriously, it's not life and death I could get behind you. But given the fact that the Jets are now 3-0 and looking pretty damn good doing it. And the cheatriats are 2-1 and have beaten us once already this season. Your basic premise just doesn't work, no matter how many "what if's" you can come up with. I don't think anyone here is taking it as life and death. I hate that phrase. We are just pissed because of how they played.
Jerry Jabber Posted September 28, 2009 Posted September 28, 2009 The doom and gloomers are out in force today. We're going "4-12" this year, Fire Jauron... Bad points of the game. First, we lost (no brainer there). Second, Gregg Williams looked like a college professor and AVP & Edwards looked like elementary school kids out there yesterday. No one expected us to not score any points. Parrish returning kickoffs & punts this year, so far, no good. Good points. The defense held Brees to under 200 yards passing and 0 TD's. If you would have said that the defense was going to do that before the game, everyone would have said your nuts. You can't blame the defense for getting worn down at the end. The Moorman-Denney TD was awesome!! It seems like Edwards has 2 good games, followed by a stinker. The coaches and players need to put in extra time and get these problems corrected. IMO, I think we can be 3-2 before we play the Jets and 4-3 at the bye.
Cotton Fitzsimmons Posted September 28, 2009 Posted September 28, 2009 The doom and gloomers are out in force today. We're going "4-12" this year, Fire Jauron... Bad points of the game. First, we lost (no brainer there). Second, Gregg Williams looked like a college professor and AVP & Edwards looked like elementary school kids out there yesterday. No one expected us to not score any points. Parrish returning kickoffs & punts this year, so far, no good. Good points. The defense held Brees to under 200 yards passing and 0 TD's. If you would have said that the defense was going to do that before the game, everyone would have said your nuts. You can't blame the defense for getting worn down at the end. The Moorman-Denney TD was awesome!! It seems like Edwards has 2 good games, followed by a stinker. The coaches and players need to put in extra time and get these problems corrected. IMO, I think we can be 3-2 before we play the Jets and 4-3 at the bye. Jerry Jabber, who is in your avatar?
crazyDingo Posted September 28, 2009 Posted September 28, 2009 Relax, its just preseason. You don't think they will actually look like this during the regular season.
Sisyphean Bills Posted September 28, 2009 Posted September 28, 2009 By the same logic, the win against the hapless Bucs 2 weeks ago really hurt our playoff chances.
kasper13 Posted September 28, 2009 Posted September 28, 2009 What are you gonna say after we lose to Miami? Cleveland? Relax, we are only 1-4. All we gotta do is go 10-1 the rest of the way? Ridiculous. Sure, the defense did this, the defense did that. Whatever. They still lost by 20 and now McKelvin & Whitner are out indefinitley. It's shaping up as an unmitigated disaster of a season.
BillsVet Posted September 28, 2009 Posted September 28, 2009 By the same logic, the win against the hapless Bucs 2 weeks ago really hurt our playoff chances. And our chances for the top overall pick. Maybe we'll settle for a top 10 pick again.
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