4th-and-1 Revisited (Saints Game)

[bladiebla]

but Jauron, since he has no "feel" for the game,

 

Spot on; you felt the defense needed the offense to show them their work was done for a reason, you felt the fans needed that final push, you felt the offense needed that first down to change momentum, you felt the offense begging for that bit of trust from their HC...

 

...and you felt the dissappointment chill through your bones when you saw Dick send out the punt team...

 

You saw the coaches on the side try to change Dicks mind, you felt for a moment he might call a timeout, gained a glimmer of hope, that he might change his mind... but no, down by 3 with a possible option to get the ball back was the best decicision in theory, and so he decided based on theory.

 

So the defense came back out with a feel of being let down by the offense, feeling all sores and tiredness, letting their concentration slip into what could have been... it could have been... it could have been.... A nice first down with a momentum swing or a fired up defense trying to defend against the TD on our 28 yard line. Go and ask anyone on the D and I bet they would have rather had that feeling fo at least we tried and defended their guts off on the 28 then punt.

 

Then 4th and 28 with the game lost, you go for it... but you allready lost the team and fans... Way too coach... way too coach...

 

It's days like this that make me feel as much a diehard Bills fan as I was an Amsterdam Admirals fan... It sure feels the sure damn way...

[toddgurley]

Last week's 4th-and-1 thread was pretty active - this one has just a wee bit potential as well.

 

The situation: 4-and-1, down by 10, less than 8 mins to go, ball on own 28.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

did anyone watch the pats game? Not sure of the situation, but I know that the Pats were up 16-10 and I believe it was in the 3rd quarter-anyway the Pats were about to go 3 and out, but instead Bellicheat leaves the O on the field and the PATS CONVERT THE 4TH DOWN ON THEIR OWN 30 YARD LINE!

 

Like i said not positive of the situation, but the Pats converted the 4th down on their own 30 yard line up just 6. That is balls and coaching. If you cant get a yard, you dont deserve to win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[toddgurley]

Belichick went for 4th-and-1 at his own 24 in the third quarter. The drive ended with the TD that put them up 26-10 and basically killed the Falcons thought that they could win the game.

 

I don't think the BILLS were going to win even if they went for it on fourth and one but there was ZERO probability after that decision.

 

 

See-this guys saw it too. Unreal! BUT JUST TO GET IT RIGHT, THE SCORE WAS 16-10, WHEN THE PATS WENT FOR IT on their own 24. I just saw it on espn

 

So that takes even more balls to run. Jauron has no marbles-

[bladiebla]

4th and 1. TO and TE loudly speak with the "coach" at the side line. Then go back to the field with some guys of the offensive line and TE ask for a timeout, contrary to the "coach" decision.

A Bills players riot begin, none in the stadium completely understand what is going on here.

The "coach", for security reasons, move out.

Players still there, decide to finish the game, and they somehow manage to get a W.

Afterward The"coach" if fired, the Bills win the 1st (of a long streak) superbowl of their history without a coach (thanks to a desesperation play in week 15) and they set a standard in the NFL world : it's way better to play alone than with a mentaly affected coach.

 

In an alternate universe this happened yesterday, so sad it wasn't ours...

[May Day 10]

Gotta go for it. 100% certain. If you trust your defense so much, you can trust them to hold New orleans to a field goal if the 4th and 1 isnt converted. Then its still a 2 score game.

 

Punting the ball there gave complete control to New Orleans to cruise to an easy win. The entire game rides on Buffalo driving down and scoring on that possession.

[StupidNation]

Here's what another coach did on 4th and 1 in the 3rd quarter in worse field position:

 

Bill Belichick had a decision to make, and it seemed like a no-brainer. His New England Patriots held a six-point lead over the Atlanta Falcons with six minutes remaining in the third quarter of Sunday’s game at Gillette Stadium, and it was fourth-and-1 from the Pats’ 24-yard line....

 

Yet Belichick, as if trying to shock his team out of its stupor, went all Barry Switzer, circa 1995. He left Tom Brady(notes) and the rest of the offense on the field and empowered them to take over the game, and they absolutely appreciated the gesture.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AvRC...o&type=lgns

 

We had more of a reason to go for it. I told my friend, he's mailing in the game.

[***PetrinoInAlbany***]

The punt was absolutely the right call. GR radio needs to get over it. You don't go for it on fourth down at your own 28. Period. The game had an eternity (eight minutes) left and we were down ten. I can't believe so many otherwise-football-savvy fans and media people (try GR radio for like six hours straight) are getting this one wrong. The Saints were the most prolific offense in the game at the time... giving them the ball at the 28 with eight minutes left and your team down ten is certain defeat. Punt and your defense can set you up. And besides ... What exactly was it about the Bills thirty-three rushing yards at that point (fifty-two minutes into the game) that made all these people think we were going to get that yard?

-

Consider this ... If you are an NFL coach, and your desire is to lose your job as soon as possible ... there is one sure-fire way to do that. It's easy ... just let the fans call the plays. Jauron knew better, and he made the right call. Let the fans call the plays, and every play would be a long ball to your best WR, followed by going for it on every fourth down. The games would be interesting, I admit, but you'd go 0-16 and get fired. At least by making the PROPER, CORRECT call, Jauron gave his team a statistically higher probability of success. In other words, he did his job.

[26CornerBlitz]

The punt was absolutely the right call. GR radio needs to get over it. You don't go for it on fourth down at your own 28. Period. The game had an eternity (eight minutes) left and we were down ten. I can't believe so many otherwise-football-savvy fans and media people (try GR radio for like six hours straight) are getting this one wrong. The Saints were the most prolific offense in the game at the time... giving them the ball at the 28 with eight minutes left and your team down ten is certain defeat. Punt and your defense can set you up. And besides ... What exactly was it about the Bills thirty-three rushing yards at that point (fifty-two minutes into the game) that made all these people think we were going to get that yard?

-

Consider this ... If you are an NFL coach, and your desire is to lose your job as soon as possible ... there is one sure-fire way to do that. It's easy ... ljust let the fans call the plays. Jauron knew better, and he made the right call. Let the fans call the plays, and every play would be a long ball to your best WR, followed by going for it on every fourth down. The games would be interesting, I admit, but you'd go 0-16 and get fired. At least by making the PROPER, CORRECT call, Jauron gave his team a statistically higher probability of success. In other words, he did his job.

 

When your D is on the verge of collapse from being on the field too long...it's the absolutely WRONG call. To hell with a statistically higher probability of success. You have to have a feel for the game as an HC. He obviously has none!! His gutless play it safe coaching style is exactly why he's a career loser as a coach. He can't beat winning teams with his "play not to lose" conservative thinking. This has been borne out over time. Wake UP!!

[BuffOrange]

The punt was absolutely the right call. GR radio needs to get over it. You don't go for it on fourth down at your own 28. Period. The game had an eternity (eight minutes) left and we were down ten. I can't believe so many otherwise-football-savvy fans and media people (try GR radio for like six hours straight) are getting this one wrong. The Saints were the most prolific offense in the game at the time... giving them the ball at the 28 with eight minutes left and your team down ten is certain defeat. Punt and your defense can set you up. And besides ... What exactly was it about the Bills thirty-three rushing yards at that point (fifty-two minutes into the game) that made all these people think we were going to get that yard?

 

Schopp was 100% correct on this - if we lose 17-7 or 17-14 everyone on espn is blaming TO for this loss (if they're not anyway) and praising Jauron's defense for holding their pt total down.

 

Your 8 minute eternity is 5 minutes if they get one first down and punt it back to us. From there maybe we check our way down the field and make it a 3pt game with a minute left and we lose...but at least the box score would've looked respectable. Kind of fitting that they were able to pile on 10 more pts and make it look like a blowout anyway.

 

Punting requires such a huge parlay of successive events to go in our favor that it's much more of a "gamble" than going for it.

[truth on hold]

The punt was absolutely the right call. GR radio needs to get over it. You don't go for it on fourth down at your own 28. Period. The game had an eternity (eight minutes) left and we were down ten. I can't believe so many otherwise-football-savvy fans and media people (try GR radio for like six hours straight) are getting this one wrong. The Saints were the most prolific offense in the game at the time... giving them the ball at the 28 with eight minutes left and your team down ten is certain defeat. Punt and your defense can set you up. And besides ... What exactly was it about the Bills thirty-three rushing yards at that point (fifty-two minutes into the game) that made all these people think we were going to get that yard?

-

Consider this ... If you are an NFL coach, and your desire is to lose your job as soon as possible ... there is one sure-fire way to do that. It's easy ... just let the fans call the plays. Jauron knew better, and he made the right call. Let the fans call the plays, and every play would be a long ball to your best WR, followed by going for it on every fourth down. The games would be interesting, I admit, but you'd go 0-16 and get fired. At least by making the PROPER, CORRECT call, Jauron gave his team a statistically higher probability of success. In other words, he did his job.

nonsense. teams get the 1st a majority of times on 4th and 1 (in this case less than 1.) for comparison we know what happened in your "best case" scenario since thats what they did. and right on cue aints marched down the field and iced it with a TD; i.e. we know bills probability of success turned out to be 0%

[mannc]

The Saints were the most prolific offense in the game at the time... giving them the ball at the 28 with eight minutes left and your team down ten is certain defeat. Punt and your defense can set you up.

 

Nice try, Dick. Now go back to preparing for the Dolphins.

[***PetrinoInAlbany***]

When your D is on the verge of collapse from being on the field too long...it's the absolutely WRONG call. To hell with a statistically higher probability of success. You have to have a feel for the game as an HC. He obviously has none!! His gutless play it safe coaching style is exactly why he's a career loser as a coach. He can't beat winning teams with his "play not to lose" conservative thinking. This has been borne out over time. Wake UP!!

I'm wide awake. We were on the twenty-eight yard line. The punt was the correct call. Giving the Saints the ball at out twenty-eight while down ten and eight minutes left would've been certain defeat.

-

Question for you ... No one had more motivation to make the better call than Jauron, an experienced NFL coach and former NFL Coach Of The Year. Me, I'm basing my judgement on 41 years following the Bills and the AFL/NFL. The odds that Jauron and I BOTH are wrong and you know better? It was the right call. We need to get over it.

[truth on hold]

I'm wide awake. We were on the twenty-eight yard line. The punt was the correct call. Giving the Saints the ball at out twenty-eight while down ten and eight minutes left would've been certain defeat.

-

Question for you ... No one had more motivation to make the better call than Jauron, an experienced NFL coach and former NFL Coach Of The Year. Me, I'm basing my judgement on 41 years following the Bills and the AFL/NFL. The odds that Jauron and I BOTH are wrong and you know better? It was the right call. We need to get over it.

LOL jauron is notorious for choking on play calling at critical moments. AND he has a losing record. so what are odds he's right?

[***PetrinoInAlbany***]

nonsense. teams get the 1st a majority of times on 4th and 1 (in this case less than 1.) for comparison we know what happened in your "best case" scenario since thats what they did. and right on cue aints marched down the field and iced it with a TD; i.e. we know bills probability of success turned out to be 0%

That's not even a logical statement... I don't know how to respond.

[26CornerBlitz]

I'm wide awake. We were on the twenty-eight yard line. The punt was the correct call. Giving the Saints the ball at out twenty-eight while down ten and eight minutes left would've been certain defeat.

-

Question for you ... No one had more motivation to make the better call than Jauron, an experienced NFL coach and former NFL Coach Of The Year. Me, I'm basing my judgement on 41 years following the Bills and the AFL/NFL. The odds that Jauron and I BOTH are wrong and you know better? It was the right call. We need to get over it.

 

You make the assumption that the 4th and 1 attempt would have failed. You keep right on backing up the career loser if he breeds such confidence in you. I guess he's the perfect coach for YOUR Bills with your 41 years of AFL/NFL experience. He just is not for MY Bills whom I've been a fan of since the Rockpile days also.

 

Good luck with that my friend!!

[***PetrinoInAlbany***]

You make the assumption that the 4th and 1 attempt would have failed. You keep right on backing up the career loser if he breeds such confidence in you. I guess he's the perfect coach for YOUR Bills with your 41 years of AFL/NFL experience. He just is not for MY Bills whom I've been a fan of since the Rockpile days also.

 

Good luck with that my friend!!

Not assuming anything, and that's the point. You don't make the decision based on an assumption either way. You weigh potential risk & reward and factor in probability.

-

Look, we will NEVER agree on this one. So let's leave it at that. I will point out that it was NOT the reason we lost the game. And that's why I get annoyed with the clowns on WGR.

-

And one more thing... and be honest. What would you be saying today if the run (or pass) had failed, and the Saints were handed the ball at the Bills 28, eight minutes left, up by ten? Probably trashing Jauron either way, I'll bet. Me? I can at least give the guy credit for making the right call. That's all. I'm done.

[26CornerBlitz]

Not assuming anything, and that's the point. You don't make the decision based on an assumption either way. You weigh potential risk & reward and factor in probability.

-

Look, we will NEVER agree on this one. So let's leave it at that. I will point out that it was NOT the reason we lost the game. And that's why I get annoyed with the clowns on WGR.

-

And one more thing... and be honest. What would you be saying today if the run (or pass) had failed, and the Saints were handed the ball at the Bills 28, eight minutes left, up by ten? Probably trashing Jauron either way, I'll bet. Me? I can at least give the guy credit for making the right call. That's all. I'm done.

 

Had he had the stones to go for it and take an aggressive posture for a change, I would have lauded him for the decision no matter the outcome given that the Bills were down in a two possession game with the ball in their hands. You don't punt the ball in that situation to the Saints offense. As I said before, the D was on the field way too much and to make matters worse the injuries were mounting (Whitner and Scott) too.

 

DJ coaches scared, so I'm not at all surprised that he punted. I'll be seriously happy when he's finally gone!!

[Flutie Flakes]

Not assuming anything, and that's the point. You don't make the decision based on an assumption either way. You weigh potential risk & reward and factor in probability.

-

Look, we will NEVER agree on this one. So let's leave it at that. I will point out that it was NOT the reason we lost the game. And that's why I get annoyed with the clowns on WGR.

-

And one more thing... and be honest. What would you be saying today if the run (or pass) had failed, and the Saints were handed the ball at the Bills 28, eight minutes left, up by ten? Probably trashing Jauron either way, I'll bet. Me? I can at least give the guy credit for making the right call. That's all. I'm done.

 

Counterpoint....what would YOU be saying today had they gone for it and made it to keep the drive alive. There are many "what if's" but had we got the win, would you have called Jauron out.

[truth on hold]

if ever there was a time to use Evans and TO as a decoy this was it. can u imagine the attention evans, owens and then reed would have gotten if they lined up wide on that play? NO would have been in a no-win situation -- double cover TO and Evans, cover Reed, and lose much needed run support; or put 8 in the box and try to stuff the 1/2 yard attempt? play the WRs soft, easy quick out for at least a couple. but if im bills im almost hoping they put 8 in the box and the DBs in tight so i can hit TO or Evans for a quick 6. i bet NO or any other team knowing this doesnt stack the inside and all, plays the DBs soft and all but concedes the 1st. it's why Pats are so effective picking up 4th and 1's even though their run game is poor; Moss, Watson and Welker, thats why

[Flutie Flakes]

if ever there was a time to use Evans and TO as a decoy this was it. can u imagine the attention evans, owens and then reed would have gotten if they lined up wide on that play? NO would have been in a no-win situation -- double cover TO and Evans, cover Reed, and lose much needed run support; or put 8 in the box and try to stuff the 1/2 yard attempt? play the WRs soft, easy quick out for at least a couple. but if im bills im almost hoping they put 8 in the box and the DBs in tight so i can hit TO or Evans for a quick 6. i bet NO or any other team knowing this doesnt stack the inside and all, plays the DBs soft and all but concedes the 1st. it's why Pats are so effective picking up 4th and 1's even though their run game is poor; Moss and Welker, thats why

 

Spot on!