OCinBuffalo Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 Yeah, yeah, yeah we have all heard the big numbers....but unlike the dopes at ESPN etc., I prefer to actually watch and understand the game...essentially the "how" they have done what they have. Also, I know all you KC Joyner fans are sure to be upset about my proper use of statistical analysis here, but you will have to get over it After watching the game films and looking at the play by play info, and then the stats, a few glaring points appear to have been overlooked: 1. The Saints have averaged 12 drives a game, and they have started them from their own 40 yard line on average. * It's important to note that, while the Bills opponents have also gotten a lot of drives, that has been largely due to positive things like: pick 6s, and us scoring...and not due to give aways, 3 and outs, or #2 below. 2. Opposing QBs have thrown 5 meaningful(6 total), give-away picks. None of the interceptions were due to excellent play from the Saints D. Rather, they were the other team's QB hitting them in the #s. All of them have given away huge field position. 3 of them have resulted in TDs. Essentially, the Saints have yet to face a NFL "varsity" QB. 3. The Saints are vulnerable to big plays, as well as the running game. They are especially vulnerable in the kicking game. They have yet to play a good special teams opponent, and, have gotten extremely short fields due to #2, hence #1. Detroit Game: 1. Um...it's Detroit? You are playing them at home? Rookie QB's first game? 2. The Saints average drive start, of which they had 13, was their 39 yard line. You give any top 15 offense 13 drives from their 40 yard line and and yeah, we can expect them to score a lot of points. I don't care how good a defense is, you can't expect them to not give up at least 28 points given these circumstances. After all, the Saints only needed to score 4/13 times. We are talking about friggin' Detroit here...so we can replace "good" with "terrible" and therefore replace 28 points with 45. 3. Somebody remind me why I am analyzing an NFL football game involving the Lions again please...rookie QB throws 3 picks...blah, blah, blah. Why are we even considering the stats from this game as statistically significant? Eagles Game: 1. Once again, the Saints average drive start, of which they had 11( ) was their 40 yard line. Same thing all over again as in the Detroit game. 2. The score at half time was 17-13. Hardly an example of overwhelming potency on offense, or of dominating a game. And this time, they were playing a respectable team. What happened? A. The Iggles fumbled the kick off to start the 3rd quarter, giving the Saints the ball on their 22 yard line. Now, understanding that "yeah, it's a lucky break, but you still have to score the TD", a huge turnover like that, and capitalizing on it, put the Iggles down 2 scores immediately, and, for the rest of the game. B. As if that wasn't bad enough, back up QB Kolb comes out 3 plays later and throw an AWFUL pick giving the Saints the ball on their 24 yard line. Saints score a TD and now it's 31-13 at 11:39 in the 3rd. The game is now completely changed, and the Eagles, just like their fans, aren't historically known for their mental strength/intestinal fortitude. 3. Meanwhile... Near-Rookie Kolb threw for almost 400 yards on this D...and 196 of that was in the first half, when the game was close or tied. So there goes the "yeah, but, they were throwing because they were behind argument"...right out the window. In fact Kolb had a 107.4 passer rating in the first half. It wasn't until the second half, when Kolb threw his 2 meaningful(3rd didn't matter) picks, that the Saints scored 31 points. Sorry but these three are game-killers, I don't care who you are. Looks a hell of a lot more like the Eagles lost...rather than the Saints won, and Detroit played like...Detriot. I will give the Saints credit for putting together a total of 5 long drives. However by and large the Eagles offense gave away that game...and Detroit... So what does this all mean? 1. I think we can all agree that the Bills are going to put up more than 231 yards of total offense, so you can forget about Brees getting 13 drives from his 40. 2. The Eagles WERE running and west coasting their way just fine on the Saints in the first half of their game. In fact, in the first half both Eagle RBs were running for 5 yards a carry. If it wasn't for the 3 minute melt down at the beginning of the second half, it's fair to assume that they would have ended up with 120 yards total rushing(EDIT: they had 60 at half time...so 120 is a conservative estimate). That's crazy #s for a West Coast offense...uh..that relies on short passing to supposedly replace the run game. Remember? No way the Saints score 48 points if that happens. In fact, if that happens the Saints probably lose this game. 3. Clearly the Saints can be run on by our offense. But even more importantly, they can be run on in special teams. Therefore....if the Bills can use their superior special teams to reverse this trend I have found, and instead, start 10 drives from THEIR 40 yard line on average, then this game becomes a relatively easy win for the Bills. Yeah, I said it. I could be wrong, but based on what I have seen so far, I highly doubt it.
sjjr Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 Nice Post. I agree the Bills can be very competitive in this game and also matchup well with New Orleans.
basskik11 Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 good post! i agree...this is a tough spot for the Saints.
BillsVet Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 No question Brees and the offense can light it up, while their defense is not especially strong. OTOH, Buffalo runs a no-huddle offense which may result in some quick 3 and outs, although their coach is a defense first run the ball type coach. Buffalo's run defense has been good, but their pass defense not so much.
Tsaikotic Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 what was the pass rush like against Brees in those two games?...if the Bills hit/hurry Brees as much as they did Leftwich, we could see Brees falter.
BuffaloBill Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 OC thanks for the insight, you've clearly put time and thought into it. I have not watched the Saints yet this year. Your thoughts help to add perspective to what by score and raw stats appears to be a very tough game for the Bills.
Chandler#81 Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 Thanks for the insight, OC. All this aside, Drew Brees is playing unconsious -and has been since the Chargers kicked him to the curb. He's truely elite now, and no lead will be safe against him. They're due for a knock-down and we're due for an 'April Surpize'! Go Bills
Beerball Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 We are doooooooomed. Herm Edwards semi-picked the Bills this morning. He picked the Lions to finally snap their streak against Washington and said don't be surprised if Buffalo beats the Saints. Likes the way the team has played in games 1 & 2.
goynahan Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 great post. for the past week i have felt like we should be competitive in this game but i havent really thought about why until i read this post. we got this in the bag GO BILLS
GR8PRKN Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 Great insight... I think OUr Run D will be good with Bush as the Primamry. There number one is not 100 percent...
Phlegm Alley Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 I agree on all points. One thing I noticed while watching the Saints/Iggles game on Sunday was a boneheaded coaching move on Andy Reid's part to give the Saints, and their high powered offense, the ball back with under 2 minutes remaining in the second quarter, with the game tied, 10-10. The Eagles were pinned deep in their own territory (at their own 2 yard line). The Saints had 2 time outs. The Eagles ran on 1st and 2nd downs and gained a total of 3 yards. The Saints called a time out after each Eagles run. It was now 3rd and 7 with 1:33 left on the clock before the half, the Eagles had the ball inside their own 5 yard line, with a QB making his first career start, in a tied ball game agianst a team with a dominant offense that will make you pay. Conventional wisdom would tell you to run the ball, running the clock to about 45 seconds in the half, right? ANdy Reid opted for the pass, which was nearly picked off, resulting in PHI having to punt, and leaving 1:20 on the clock and only 54 yards for Drew Brees to lead his team down the field for the TD. NOLA scored only 2 plays later making it 17-10. PHI kicked a FG before the half, but instead of it being a possible 3 point lead, it was a 4 point lead going into the half. To me, it was a major turning point in the game.
richNjoisy Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 great post OC! Thanks for the analysis The Saints were 8-8 last year and 7-9 the year before. After the 2-0 start, people are putting them in the Super Bowl time for a speed bump (Buffalo) Go Bills! -RnJ
eball Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 No question Brees and the offense can light it up, while their defense is not especially strong. OTOH, Buffalo runs a no-huddle offense which may result in some quick 3 and outs, although their coach is a defense first run the ball type coach. Buffalo's run defense has been good, but their pass defense not so much. BillsVet, you're one of the most negative (I know, you prefer "realistic") posters around. That said, what's your take on the fact that Gregg Williams is a "scheme and substitution" coach and how the Bills' no huddle offense may impact that?
muffmonster Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 If you just pay attention to ESPN and the final scores of their games they are very scary. Nice write up...It puts the Saints into perspective. One thing for sure though they capitalize on other teams mistakes so Buffalo will have to play a tight game.
phillyrich Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 Thank goodness. This is the third different post that I am writing on trying to hammer home the score of the NO/PHL game was not a true indication of the game itself. Nice summary, on the money. Go Bills. Sunday will be a four point game, I not picking for/against the Bills cause I know better
Realist Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 Great post OC, nice analysis. If the Bills limit or even eliminate their mistakes, (turnovers, boneheaded playcalls, etc.) this looks like a game the Bills can win.
first_and_ten Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 Yeah, yeah, yeah we have all heard the big numbers....but unlike the dopes at ESPN etc., I prefer to actually watch and understand the game...essentially the "how" they have done what they have. Also, I know all you KC Joyner fans are sure to be upset about my proper use of statistical analysis here, but you will have to get over it After watching the game films and looking at the play by play info, and then the stats, a few glaring points appear to have been overlooked: 1. The Saints have averaged 12 drives a game, and they have started them from their own 40 yard line on average. * It's important to note that, while the Bills opponents have also gotten a lot of drives, that has been largely due to positive things like: pick 6s, and us scoring...and not due to give aways, 3 and outs, or #2 below. 2. Opposing QBs have thrown 5 meaningful(6 total), give-away picks. None of the interceptions were due to excellent play from the Saints D. Rather, they were the other team's QB hitting them in the #s. All of them have given away huge field position. 3 of them have resulted in TDs. Essentially, the Saints have yet to face a NFL "varsity" QB. 3. The Saints are vulnerable to big plays, as well as the running game. They are especially vulnerable in the kicking game. They have yet to play a good special teams opponent, and, have gotten extremely short fields due to #2, hence #1. Detroit Game: 1. Um...it's Detroit? You are playing them at home? Rookie QB's first game? 2. The Saints average drive start, of which they had 13, was their 39 yard line. You give any top 15 offense 13 drives from their 40 yard line and and yeah, we can expect them to score a lot of points. I don't care how good a defense is, you can't expect them to not give up at least 28 points given these circumstances. After all, the Saints only needed to score 4/13 times. We are talking about friggin' Detroit here...so we can replace "good" with "terrible" and therefore replace 28 points with 45. 3. Somebody remind me why I am analyzing an NFL football game involving the Lions again please...rookie QB throws 3 picks...blah, blah, blah. Why are we even considering the stats from this game as statistically significant? Eagles Game: 1. Once again, the Saints average drive start, of which they had 11( ) was their 40 yard line. Same thing all over again as in the Detroit game. 2. The score at half time was 17-13. Hardly an example of overwhelming potency on offense, or of dominating a game. And this time, they were playing a respectable team. What happened? A. The Iggles fumbled the kick off to start the 3rd quarter, giving the Saints the ball on their 22 yard line. Now, understanding that "yeah, it's a lucky break, but you still have to score the TD", a huge turnover like that, and capitalizing on it, put the Iggles down 2 scores immediately, and, for the rest of the game. B. As if that wasn't bad enough, back up QB Kolb comes out 3 plays later and throw an AWFUL pick giving the Saints the ball on their 24 yard line. Saints score a TD and now it's 31-13 at 11:39 in the 3rd. The game is now completely changed, and the Eagles, just like their fans, aren't historically known for their mental strength/intestinal fortitude. 3. Meanwhile... Near-Rookie Kolb threw for almost 400 yards on this D...and 196 of that was in the first half, when the game was close or tied. So there goes the "yeah, but, they were throwing because they were behind argument"...right out the window. In fact Kolb had a 107.4 passer rating in the first half. It wasn't until the second half, when Kolb threw his 2 meaningful(3rd didn't matter) picks, that the Saints scored 31 points. Sorry but these three are game-killers, I don't care who you are. Looks a hell of a lot more like the Eagles lost...rather than the Saints won, and Detroit played like...Detriot. I will give the Saints credit for putting together a total of 5 long drives. However by and large the Eagles offense gave away that game...and Detroit... So what does this all mean? 1. I think we can all agree that the Bills are going to put up more than 231 yards of total offense, so you can forget about Brees getting 13 drives from his 40. 2. The Eagles WERE running and west coasting their way just fine on the Saints in the first half of their game. In fact, in the first half both Eagle RBs were running for 5 yards a carry. If it wasn't for the 3 minute melt down at the beginning of the second half, it's fair to assume that they would have ended up with 120 yards total rushing(EDIT: they had 60 at half time...so 120 is a conservative estimate). That's crazy #s for a West Coast offense...uh..that relies on short passing to supposedly replace the run game. Remember? No way the Saints score 48 points if that happens. In fact, if that happens the Saints probably lose this game. 3. Clearly the Saints can be run on by our offense. But even more importantly, they can be run on in special teams. Therefore....if the Bills can use their superior special teams to reverse this trend I have found, and instead, start 10 drives from THEIR 40 yard line on average, then this game becomes a relatively easy win for the Bills. Yeah, I said it. I could be wrong, but based on what I have seen so far, I highly doubt it. Wow, you have way too much time on your hands, LOL. But really good breakdown nonetheless. The one thing I do question is the special teams analysis. We haven't been superior on special teams this year. Past few years, yes.This year, not in the first two games. Hopefully this will change.
StupidNation Posted September 23, 2009 Posted September 23, 2009 One of the best threads in a long time. Thanks for the homework and the good reasoning. Not a big homer, but we can play well with any team on any day as long as our offense is working to some degree. Our D is getting to the point where I cannot see a 40 point game without a lot of turn-overs on O or ST.
OCinBuffalo Posted September 23, 2009 Author Posted September 23, 2009 Wow, you have way too much time on your hands, LOL. But really good breakdown nonetheless. The one thing I do question is the special teams analysis. We haven't been superior on special teams this year. Past few years, yes.This year, not in the first two games. Hopefully this will change. I humbly submit that this took me 15 friggin minutes to write. About a half hour to watch the highlights and research, etc. Anyway, while we haven't been razor sharp on STs this year, we still have a significant edge on a team who ST are on the verge of being terrible. It's early, sure, but from what I saw we can expect some big returns, and more importantly, we should be able to pin them back on kicks and punts. Basically I am saying that this has the potential to be Seattle last year in terms of a ST mismatch.
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