WHOA Trent PWNED Brady - check it out

[metzelaars_lives]

What does "pwned" mean? And where does this thing "FAIL" come from? This lingo goes way over my head, I must be getting old. It sounds dumb though.

[SouthGeorgiaBillsFan]

Oh yes, we appreciate it---this is pure comedy gold!!

 

But seriously, this has to be the least sophisticated misuse of statistics ever attempted on this site---and that's quite an achievement.

 

 

 

Yes, his "stats" are a fallacy that only you can understand.

 

But for the sheer lack of self awareness and overwhelming irony--this is the best part:

 

 

 

 

 

The "usage" of remedial mathematical tools!! Run with it man!

 

 

 

Well, not that you have realized, anyway.

 

 

 

This HAS to be a goof. Someone is playing us---no way anyone would be so boldly (or cluelessly) moronic.

 

Keep it coming, Goob!

Moronic? WEO coming from you that means absolutely nothing. The extrapolation serves only to demonstrate that Trent's actual stat line was considerably better than Brady's. He out played him period. Brady was the recipient of a mind-bogglingly lucky play that put him in position to win the game and he took advantage because he is a great QB. That fact has absolutely zero bearing on how good of a game Trent played, and that you people keep suggesting such is insulting to intelligence. You can ridicule all you want but the fact remains you keep flaming me for stating that Trent had the better game and providing evidence to support that claim.

 

The collective intelligence of this forum is exceedingly low. WEO you did not help that at all by deciding to post here. Time and again I have provided solid mathematical evidence, air tight logic, and objective reason supporting my position and all the detractors have provided are insults to my intelligence and repeated use of the same BS to support a position that quite frankly I cannot understand why you would want to defend.

 

You mother !@#$ers WANT Trent Edwards and the Bills to fail so badly just so that you can be "correct" that you are blinded to the simple truth that he outplayed the best QB in the league to start the season. So honestly you can all kiss my ass. I was trying to start a thread here that would give us something good to talk about for a change and I am sick of you brainless !@#$s using your underdeveloped swiss cheese reasoning to try and bring me and my team down. !@#$ you all very much.

 

I can assure you that you are all in fact exceedingly dumb because you clearly are basing your positions on the BS jargon ESPN continues to spew out even while you are so mind numbingly oblivious to the fact that those same "analyst" were on the verge of tears literally when Trent threw that last TD and put us up by 11. Learn to think for yourselves and stop thinking that watching sportscenter or any other ESPN crap makes you "knowledgeable".

 

The whole point of this extrapolation was to provide an argument against the logic that Brady's stat line was better - I am saying that it was not better, just bigger because he had more plays (thanks to drive ending penalties and dropped passes that honestly had nothing whatsoever to do with Trent). So to make that case, I show you what Trent's numbers would look like if projected across the same number of plays. I don't understand how you guys are missing the very short neural synapses required to allow one to comprehend this form of logic, but in considering how STUPID so many of you detractors are, and that is the only word for it, especially for WEO and Alphadawg, I can hardly say that I am surprised.

 

You can say "Brady made the drive at the end of the game yadda yadda...." but without a fluke fumble that still falls short BECAUSE Trent's engineered a drive right before that which stuck in right in the Patriots eye. If not for a fluke fumble Brady's drive was meaningless. So really by every barometer that you dumb ***** are using to gauge Brady's game, Trent was simply better. But I'm the goob right? Get real.

[Lori]

The difference between this games short yardage passing and most of last years is a lot of these plays the running back was the primary target. Screen plays folks! Something we haven't seen effectively in a while!

 

SouthernGeorgia - You REALLY think highly of yourself, but it's leading to you talking down to people... and you really shouldn't.

What he said.

[MDH]

Trent did out play Brady in my opinion, thanks in part to our defense and Brady just got lucky. Brady threw a pick for a returned TD, did TE throw one? Who had the highest QB rating?

 

I know, but Brady won the game...

 

Outplayed Brady? With the game on the line Brady orchestrated 2 TD drives while Edwards took a very ill-advised sack which basically ended the game. Edwards outplayed Brady in the first half but - unfortunately - the game consists of 2 halves...

 

Also, Brady managed to keep drive after drive alive which chewed up clock and tired out the D. The tired D that allowed 2 TDs in the final 3 minutes. Edwards played a fine game, no doubt, but the goal of the game is to win. Brady did what was needed to win and Edwards didn't.

[Willis990]

A fundamentally flawed approach that the mighty Patriots coached by BB could not stop ALL NIGHT LONG. Yea, that is really smart buddy.

 

On a side note, he had ZERO open or even single covered receivers in the end zone. I'll take a short pass to a wide open TE who runs it in over a forced red zone INT any day of the week.

 

 

A fundamentally flawed approach that the mighty Patriots coached by BB could not stop ALL NIGHT LONG. Yea, that is really smart buddy----The Bills offense scored a mediocre 17 points against a D w. 6 new starters

[capetide]

Umm yes actually he did HANDILY out-play Tom Brady. If you extrapolate Trent's numbers across the same number of plays, the comparison would look like this:

 

Trent: 32/53 (15/25 = 60% | 32/53 = 60%) 450 yards (8.5 ypa x 53 attempts); 4 TDs (53 attempts / 12.5 attempts per TD); 0 ints

Brady: 39/53 378 yards; 2 TDs; 1 int

 

This extrapolation was based on the individual passing statistics listed on espn:

 

http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=290914017

 

Surely you would recognize that the quarterback with substantially more attempts would have more yardage and TD opportunities. So if you apply Trents actual numbers across the same numbers of attempts, you can make a very reasonable argument that Trents actual numbers were FAR more impressive than Tom Brady. So yea, the rating was in this case a very accurate indicator of performance for those two QBs. But thanks for playing.

 

Also, if you think Trent wasn't looking down field enough, we can observe the comparison between yards per *completion*:

 

Trent: 212 yards/15 completions = 14.1 yards per completion (which is effing RIGHTEOUS)

Brady: 378 yards /39 completions = 9.7 yards per completion (good but not Trent Edwards good)

 

So clearly, he was getting more plays down field for more yards per capita than Tom Brady. If we didn't have at least 3 balls dropped that should have been caught, even *if* they weren't exactly perfect, the difference between Edwards and Brady would be even more profound.

 

This post was originally posted in response on like the fourth page of a thread started by another forum member, but I found it so intriguing after I did the calculations that I thought you would all appreciate a new thread for it.

 

Not only is Trent a better QB than Brady, as you proved, you should have noted that he rushed 2X for 25 yds. Now, if you extrapolate that to, let's say 25 attempts, you can say that at 12,5 yds percarry he would have run for 312.5 yds for the game!!!! Not only is Trent better than Brady, he is also the GREATEST RUNNING BACK IN THE HISTORY OF THE NFL!!!

[Fan in Chicago]

But I'm the goob right?

 

After reading your expletive-filled tirade, goob is too generous by half.

[mrags]

The purpose of extrapolation is to compare two sets of data that are not equal in a meaningful way. This does not suggest that Trent Edwards would actually hit these numbers. It says that when measured across the same number of plays, Trent's numbers were clearly more impressive. I only brought up statistics because that is the only meaningful argument that has been made in Tom Brady's favor, and since you people on this forum are clearly incapable of recognizing the fallacy in that argument for yourselves, I needed to put it in a mathematical format you can understand. This is done all the time in science. I can't help it if the usage of remedial mathematical tools is beyond your comprehension. But you guys are the ones who like to use Brady's stat line as the basis of your argument. I simply took the ball and ran with it.

 

Alphadawg I am your master. You can bow down and worship any time. I am 27 years old and everyone on this board can see as plain as day that my knowledge and understanding of football and everything else is far deeper than your own.

 

Ill agree with most of your opinions SGBF, except your love for Peters.

[Heels20X6]

After reading your expletive-filled tirade, goob is too generous by half.

 

 

Another graduate of Hamburger University....

 

I wonder how he treats janitors on buses?

[CodeMonkey]

If you extrapolate Trent's numbers across the same number of plays, the comparison would look like this:

I salute your zeal in going through the rest of the math in your post, but unfortunately your initial premise is flawed.

Edwards did not have the the same number of plays as Brady, because he (technically the offense as a whole) did not produce sufficiently on the plays he was out there. So trying to extrapolate based on the number of plays really does not make any sense.

[Mr. WEO]

Look, I think TE played a very good game. I am with you and the majority of the posters here. He looked calm and patient. He hit his targets. The last series was poorly coached/managed.

 

What you somehow (comically) have failed to recognize is that I was mocking your goofy "extrapolation" "statistics".

 

Look, here's a little hint--if you want to make the case that TE had a better game because he had a better YPA or, whatever--that's fine. But don't get crazy and make a fool of yourself just to make a point.

 

 

The collective intelligence of this forum is exceedingly low. WEO you did not help that at all by deciding to post here. Time and again I have provided solid mathematical evidence, air tight logic, and objective reason supporting my position and all the detractors have provided are insults to my intelligence and repeated use of the same BS to support a position that quite frankly I cannot understand why you would want to defend.

 

My favorite part was the "they do this in science all the time".

 

You mother !@#$ers WANT Trent Edwards and the Bills to fail so badly just so that you can be "correct" that you are blinded to the simple truth that he outplayed the best QB in the league to start the season. So honestly you can all kiss my ass. I was trying to start a thread here that would give us something good to talk about for a change and I am sick of you brainless !@#$s using your underdeveloped swiss cheese reasoning to try and bring me and my team down. !@#$ you all very much.

You HAVE given given us something good to talk about! "Swiss cheese reasoning"----awesome stuff!

 

I can assure you that you are all in fact exceedingly dumb because you clearly are basing your positions on the BS jargon ESPN continues to spew out even while you are so mind numbingly oblivious to the fact that those same "analyst" were on the verge of tears literally when Trent threw that last TD and put us up by 11. Learn to think for yourselves and stop thinking that watching sportscenter or any other ESPN crap makes you "knowledgeable".

 

Ok, what is the source of your obviously superior intellect?

 

The whole point of this extrapolation was to provide an argument against the logic that Brady's stat line was better - I am saying that it was not better, just bigger because he had more plays (thanks to drive ending penalties and dropped passes that honestly had nothing whatsoever to do with Trent). So to make that case, I show you what Trent's numbers would look like if projected across the same number of plays. I don't understand how you guys are missing the very short neural synapses required to allow one to comprehend this form of logic, but in considering how STUPID so many of you detractors are, and that is the only word for it, especially for WEO and Alphadawg, I can hardly say that I am surprised.

 

 

 

Look, extrapolation is only valid if the data follow a linear pattern or trend. There is no trend in the behavior or performance of a QB within the course of a game that allows you to make the silly statistical suspension of reality that you are so determined to make. It is patently ridiculous to simply say that if one QB threw as X amount more passes, he would have had the same success (or failure) with his subsequent throws. Who thinks like this??? You yourself pointed out the purely random events that make your extrapolation impossible---dropped passes, fumbles, ints, etc.

 

But I'm the goob right?

Look, I think TE played a very good game. I am with you and the majority of the posters here. He looked calm and patient. He hit his targets. The last series was poorly coached/managed.

 

What you somehow (comically) have failed to recognize is that I was mocking your goofy "extrapolation" "statistics".

 

Look, here's a little hint--if you want to make the case that TE had a better game because he had a better YPA or, whatever--that's fine. But don't make a fool of yourself just to make a point.

 

But please DO keep telling us what a smart young man you are!

 

But I'm the goob right?

 

A singular moment of authentic self awareness......

 

I still say it's 50/50 this guy is pranking us with this type of thinking.

[SouthGeorgiaBillsFan]

I salute your zeal in going through the rest of the math in your post, but unfortunately your initial premise is flawed.

Edwards did not have the the same number of plays as Brady, because he (technically the offense as a whole) did not produce sufficiently on the plays he was out there. So trying to extrapolate based on the number of plays really does not make any sense.

 

I understand that. But the argument is not that the offense as a whole was more effective than NE - but that Trent Edwards played better than Brady. The purpose of the extrapolation is not to suggest that had he had 53 plays his stats would have been what I posted - as he obviously could have performed better or worse on those extra plays. The purpose is to provide a comparable context in which the QBs can be evaluated fairly based on their stat line, since the predominant argument against my point that TE was better was to quote the game statistics.

 

You can say Tom Brady had more opportunities to throw because their offense was more successful. I say he got more opportunities to throw because their running game was substantially less successful. Really it can go back and forth like that, hence the reason I devised a way to measure their stats fairly based upon the number of attempts each received.

 

Each team had 4 drives that failed to produce points. So it is hard to say definitively that the Pats offense was more successful. You take away drives that the Bills shot themselves in the foot and/or that fluke fumble and you likely would see clearly and definitively that the Bills offense and in particular Trent Edwards was simply more effective.

[SouthGeorgiaBillsFan]

Ok, what is the source of your obviously superior intellect?

 

I was blessed through no cause of my own.

[Drey]

The whole point of this extrapolation was to provide an argument against the logic that Brady's stat line was better - I am saying that it was not better, just bigger because he had more plays (thanks to drive ending penalties and dropped passes that honestly had nothing whatsoever to do with Trent). So to make that case, I show you what Trent's numbers would look like if projected across the same number of plays. I don't understand how you guys are missing the very short neural synapses required to allow one to comprehend this form of logic, but in considering how STUPID so many of you detractors are, and that is the only word for it, especially for WEO and Alphadawg, I can hardly say that I am surprised.

 

I have to say, I found this thread to be quite amusing. I have to assume that you are simply putting on an act to get a rise out of people. The other option would just be sad.

 

"This form of logic" that you refer to is fundamentally flawed. I assume you know this since, once again, I have to believe that you are joking. But just in case:

 

Your extrapolation has no scientific basis at all. You are performing a linear extrapolation of each single statistic from a system that is highly non-linear in nature. What exactly is your basis for this? A couple of examples (Moorman passing, etc.) have already shown the flawed nature of this approach. Do touchdowns really scale linearly with number of attempts? Do completions? You can't use extrapolation to "provide a comparable context in which the QBs can be evaluated fairly", unless the extrapolation itself is valid. To do so is simply junk science.

 

You have repeatedly ignored the fact that each quarterback had roughly the same number of possesions. Brady was able to do more with those chances. You argue that Trent wasn't able to because of reasons that had nothing to do with him (penaltes, etc.). So if Trent had double the number of chances (possessions) that Brady had, his performance (productivity) would have been better, making him the better quarterback. Surely you see the flaw in that argument.

 

You are attempting to judge quarterback performance solely based on statistics. This is no better than a quarterback rating (which someone else has pointed out). Judging based on statistics alone is pretty silly. A quarterback's stats may be reported as his, but they're obviously not his alone. They depend on everyone and everything around him. Surely a quarterback's performance has to be judged beyond statistics alone. The ability to lead, and the ability to step up one's game when it matters the most. Brady was able to do this, Trent wasn't.

 

Does that make Trent bad? No, he was actually quite good. Not better than Brady, though.

[3rdnlng]

Why is it that you people just want to hate someone? Trent Edwards, the Bills coaches, anyone else you can possibly blame when a team that you have absolutely no bearing or influence upon doesn't perform the way you think they should? To do such is indicative of the kind of spineless, thoughtless, whining brain spasms that you are.

 

Why is it impossible for you to give credit where it is do? Would you rather be correct in your absurd assessments that clearly lack understanding of the dynamics of the game, or would you rather have a good football team?

 

I vote for good football team, and for the first time in a while, I am more than convinced we have a very good one.

 

The problem with claiming yourself a superior intellect to others is that you look foolish when you make a mistake like this.

[SouthGeorgiaBillsFan]

The problem with claiming yourself a superior intellect to others is that you look foolish when you make a mistake like this.

 

Eh we all make typos from time to time. Are you really going to make the argument that is a function of intellect?

[SouthGeorgiaBillsFan]

I have to say, I found this thread to be quite amusing. I have to assume that you are simply putting on an act to get a rise out of people. The other option would just be sad.

 

"This form of logic" that you refer to is fundamentally flawed. I assume you know this since, once again, I have to believe that you are joking. But just in case:

 

Your extrapolation has no scientific basis at all. You are performing a linear extrapolation of each single statistic from a system that is highly non-linear in nature. What exactly is your basis for this? A couple of examples (Moorman passing, etc.) have already shown the flawed nature of this approach. Do touchdowns really scale linearly with number of attempts? Do completions? You can't use extrapolation to "provide a comparable context in which the QBs can be evaluated fairly", unless the extrapolation itself is valid. To do so is simply junk science.

 

You have repeatedly ignored the fact that each quarterback had roughly the same number of possesions. Brady was able to do more with those chances. You argue that Trent wasn't able to because of reasons that had nothing to do with him (penaltes, etc.). So if Trent had double the number of chances (possessions) that Brady had, his performance (productivity) would have been better, making him the better quarterback. Surely you see the flaw in that argument.

 

You are attempting to judge quarterback performance solely based on statistics. This is no better than a quarterback rating (which someone else has pointed out). Judging based on statistics alone is pretty silly. A quarterback's stats may be reported as his, but they're obviously not his alone. They depend on everyone and everything around him. Surely a quarterback's performance has to be judged beyond statistics alone. The ability to lead, and the ability to step up one's game when it matters the most. Brady was able to do this, Trent wasn't.

 

Does that make Trent bad? No, he was actually quite good. Not better than Brady, though.

 

Actually I was attempting to debunk the idea that Tom Brady had a better performance based solely on his stat line (since that was the only argument anyone could provide to support that position) by using my extrapolation to illustrate just how ridiculous it was to say "well Tom Brady had more yards so his performance was better."

 

It was a fair extrapolation, as far as it goes. People cannot look at Trent's numbers and realize that they were more impressive than Brady's numbers due to the discrepancy in passing yardage. In most other statistical categories (except completion % which is irrelevant because even with a lower % Trent still achieved a higher YPA - you can argue it was due to screens and runs after the catch, but that is also how most of Brady's yardage was accumulated as well, so that point is moot), Trent was clearly superior. So it was necessary to demonstrate what his numbers meant versus Tom Brady's numbers, and to do that required the extrapolation that I performed.

 

I mean really it makes perfect sense. If Tom Brady played better than Trent Edwards, *and* Tom Brady threw twice as many passes as Trent Edwards, then why did only have only the same number of TDs as Trent Edwards or substantially less yards per completion? Why were his yards per attempt lower, despite completing 10% more of his passes? Because he was not getting the ball into open space nearly as effectively as Trent was. My extrapolation clearly and soundly supports this perspective. It was a valid extrapolation because the point was not to suggest or predict what Trent's numbers would actually look like after 53 attempts, but to illustrate what they would look like had he actually posted identical numbers over the same number of attempts that Tom Brady had for the purpose of comparative analysis. I cannot help anyone understand this concept any better if you cannot recognize that difference in the purpose of my original post. Also, each stat individually was extrapolated in linear fashion, so I just cannot agree with your argument against its validity, although I do respect that you have enough understanding of how it works to post a valid response.

 

I respect your thoughts on it as they were lucid and logical. I expect that you can at least grant there is merit to what I am saying.

 

It isn't that I'm joking in my original post, but yea I think you do understand the context of where I am coming from in order to try and make my point.

[Guest dog14787]

Outplayed Brady? With the game on the line Brady orchestrated 2 TD drives while Edwards took a very ill-advised sack which basically ended the game. Edwards outplayed Brady in the first half but - unfortunately - the game consists of 2 halves...

 

Also, Brady managed to keep drive after drive alive which chewed up clock and tired out the D. The tired D that allowed 2 TDs in the final 3 minutes. Edwards played a fine game, no doubt, but the goal of the game is to win. Brady did what was needed to win and Edwards didn't.

 

I'll say it again, what Brady did was to little to late and the 2nd TD drive that should never even happened was a whopping 30 yards. Trent Edwards could have easily done the same thing.

 

Folks around here want to crown Tom the golden boy Brady king then so be it, but there's a new kid in town and he's gunning for Shady Brady and the New England Patriots...

 

The Buffalo Bills are not going to be satisfied until we take down the Pat's and its going to happen,

 

I billieve...

[bizell]

Trent still achieved a higher YPA - you can argue it was due to screens and runs after the catch, but that is also how most of Brady's yardage was accumulated as well, so that point is moot)

 

Incorrect. Just going to Lori's numbers posted earlier, almost 3/4ths of Edwards yardage was accumulated via YAC. I don't know Brady's, as no one has shown them, but just by watching the game I know that his passes actually travelled down the field a majority of the time, as opposed to at/behind the LOS for ours.

[SouthGeorgiaBillsFan]

Incorrect. Just going to Lori's numbers posted earlier, almost 3/4ths of Edwards yardage was accumulated via YAC. I don't know Brady's, as no one has shown them, but just by watching the game I know that his passes actually travelled down the field a majority of the time, as opposed to at/behind the LOS for ours.

 

I am convinced that you did not actually watch the game. The only other option is that you utterly lack any ability to comprehend or even remember what you watched. So I give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you are merely pretending you watched it.

 

You also clearly do not understand the concept that our cover 2 defense is not the same as the Pats double coverage man to man on the outside...and thus the best option will be thrown to different players in different positions. As the fundamental philosophy was the same (neither team wanted to let the other beat them deep), the result was similar in that both QBs took the short easy stuff that was available rather than make ill-advised passes into coverage, but as the defense itself was different, it resulted in different receivers being the best viable option on a given play.