RayFinkle Posted September 15, 2009 Posted September 15, 2009 Actually, it was. McKelvin should have taken a knee in the end zone. Whether the Bills started on their 31 or their 20 made no difference whatsoever. It's up to the coaches to make sure that these guys understand the game situation. McKelvin needed to run the ball out and was likely coached to in that situation. He takes a knee and the Pats get a free clock stoppage at the 2:00 warning.
BuffaloRebound Posted September 15, 2009 Posted September 15, 2009 OK, lets say that McKelvin brings it out, gets tackled at the 30, but doesn't fumble.... What percentage chance would you give the Bills of getting that all important first down to seal the game? I'm willing to go as high as 65% that the Bills pick up that first down. I'm only willing to go as high as a 20% chance of winning the game if they were forced to punt it away. What do you think? 20% chance of Bills getting a 1st down and running out the clock - Jauron would have called 3 running plays no doubt and Pats would have known this and stacked the line. 85% chance of Pats putting it in the end zone after the punt. So, about 66% chance Pats still win.
Matt-05 Posted September 15, 2009 Posted September 15, 2009 I going to say that the outcome of last nights game was inevitable. We always find a way to lose. When the Bills were up by 11 my wife said to me, "they are going to win." My response..."No they won't."
Dwight Drane Posted September 15, 2009 Posted September 15, 2009 34% of the drives in the NFL go 3 and out. Given that a run was highly probable we will call it 50% on this drive If McKelvin goes down on the 25 with 1:58 left....the Bills run 3 plays at 6 seconds each for a total of 5 yards and the Pats take timeouts...4th down on the 30 comes at 1:40. Moorman's career net is 39 yards. New England would have the ball at their own 30 with 1:30 left. Even if Brady went 5 for 8 with an average of 12 yards per pass....with 7 seconds for an incompletion or an out of bounds...and 15 seconds for a completion in bounds....they would come up short. The Bills should win this game 90%+ of the time. Just on 3 and outs alone it is 76%.
Rockinon Posted September 15, 2009 Posted September 15, 2009 Actually, it was. McKelvin should have taken a knee in the end zone. Whether the Bills started on their 31 or their 20 made no difference whatsoever. It's up to the coaches to make sure that these guys understand the game situation. No. By running the ball out he crosses the 20 yard line for better field position. Plus, by running the ball out you eat up clock giving NE less chance at coming back. How many times have we argued that this team needs to play to win instead of playing to not lose? I also have no problem with McKelvin bringing the ball out. His fumble was a costly mistake, yes but just learn from it and move on. Also, when he was interviewed after the game, he was asked if he would bring the ball out again. His reply was "yes". I like his attitude.
iinii Posted September 15, 2009 Posted September 15, 2009 OK, lets say that McKelvin brings it out, gets tackled at the 30, but doesn't fumble.... What percentage chance would you give the Bills of getting that all important first down to seal the game? I'm willing to go as high as 65% that the Bills pick up that first down. I'm only willing to go as high as a 20% chance of winning the game if they were forced to punt it away. What do you think? Hypothetically speaking? we win........
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