JESSEFEFFER Posted September 14, 2009 Posted September 14, 2009 With TB, NO and Cleveland at home and the Dolphins on the road, what do you think the chances are that the Bills are 3 and 2 after their first 5? I'd say it's like this: 5-0................. <1% 4-1................. 12% 3-2................. 43% 2-3................. 33% 1-4................. 9% 0-5................. 4% We'll know more by 10 PM tonight but if they are at 2 or 3 wins after 5 games, they are still in it with a chance to be getting better throughout the rest of the season.
cmjoyce113 Posted September 14, 2009 Posted September 14, 2009 Not seeing our team play yet I think we can beat the Dolphins, Browns and Bucs. Depending on how tonight goes defending Brady and co. we may be able to compete with the Saints. If we can hold Brady and his receivers in check we can do the same with Brees. Truthfully I think our D will keep us in tonights game. If we can put up 20 to 25 points between offense, defense and special teams I think that our D can keep it in that range to give us a shot at a win.
VJ91 Posted September 14, 2009 Posted September 14, 2009 With TB, NO and Cleveland at home and the Dolphins on the road, what do you think the chances are that the Bills are 3 and 2 after their first 5? I'd say it's like this: 5-0................. <1% 4-1................. 12% 3-2................. 43% 2-3................. 33% 1-4................. 9% 0-5................. 4% We'll know more by 10 PM tonight but if they are at 2 or 3 wins after 5 games, they are still in it with a chance to be getting better throughout the rest of the season. Looking at the team realistically with all of the upheaval and big changes made so close to the first game of the season, I would change your numbers a "tad": 5-0................. 0% 4-1................. 5% 3-2................. 25% 2-3................. 25% 1-4................. 40% (This realistic start should lead to DJ being fired soon!) 0-5................. 5% I'm like every other long time Bills fan. I'm hoping the Bills surprise the world beginning even with a Monday Night Miracle tonight. Unfortunately, while I certainly hope for this, reality sucks, and so do the Bills, at least on paper, before kickoff tonight.
JESSEFEFFER Posted September 14, 2009 Author Posted September 14, 2009 I'm like every other long time Bills fan. I'm hoping the Bills surprise the world beginning even with a Monday Night Miracle tonight. Unfortunately, while I certainly hope for this, reality sucks, and so do the Bills, at least on paper, before kickoff tonight. The thing is we aren't really aware of the flaws the other teams have. What do you suppose the fans of the Bucs, Browns, and 'Phins are thinking about their teams today? NO gave up a bunch of points to a team one year removed from 0-16. The Bills get them in the Ralph. The Ralph will have noise and, almost always, wind. Drew Brees has not played many games in the NE without climate control.
MRM33064 Posted September 14, 2009 Posted September 14, 2009 If you enjoy this sort of thing, you would like www.advancednflstats.com. I have no interest in the site, I just find it fun to read now and then. In this case, if you haven't already done so, you could get a (very) rough approximation of the expected probability distribution by assigning point spread estimates to each matchup, converting those point spreads to approximate straight-up win probabilities (you can find tables on the web, but with enough data you can construct your own fairly easily), and then calculating it out. I did this last year to rebut the WGR whiner callers, who were downplaying our chances to make the playoffs during our great start. The probablility of us missing the playoffs at that time was, in fact, absurdly small. Unfortunately, we know what actually happened ....
CodeMonkey Posted September 14, 2009 Posted September 14, 2009 I did this last year to rebut the WGR whiner callers, who were downplaying our chances to make the playoffs during our great start. The probablility of us missing the playoffs at that time was, in fact, absurdly small. Unfortunately, we know what actually happened .... The Bills managed to beat long odds last season, maybe they can do the same tonight
Big Hurt Posted September 14, 2009 Posted September 14, 2009 It is impoosible to guess in my opinion. This is not the same team we saw during the pre-season. It can be much worse or little better. I think it should be worse because of the firing of the OC 10 days before the season starts. But that doesn't mean there isn't a team out there that the Bills can beat. Right now there is a remote chance that the Bills can win more than 6 games.
kbuckley9091 Posted September 14, 2009 Posted September 14, 2009 With TB, NO and Cleveland at home and the Dolphins on the road, what do you think the chances are that the Bills are 3 and 2 after their first 5? I'd say it's like this: 5-0................. <1% 4-1................. 12% 3-2................. 43% 2-3................. 33% 1-4................. 9% 0-5................. 4% We'll know more by 10 PM tonight but if they are at 2 or 3 wins after 5 games, they are still in it with a chance to be getting better throughout the rest of the season. All depends on how this green offensive line looks tonight, if they perform reasonably well...I say 3-2 is possible, if they look like the train-wreck that everybody is predicting, I say 1-4 and Dick's out the door (or close to it).....
manbeast Posted September 14, 2009 Posted September 14, 2009 Looking at the team realistically with all of the upheaval and big changes made so close to the first game of the season, I would change your numbers a "tad": 5-0................. 0% 4-1................. 5% 3-2................. 25% 2-3................. 25% 1-4................. 40% (This realistic start should lead to DJ being fired soon!) 0-5................. 5% I'm like every other long time Bills fan. I'm hoping the Bills surprise the world beginning even with a Monday Night Miracle tonight. Unfortunately, while I certainly hope for this, reality sucks, and so do the Bills, at least on paper, before kickoff tonight. There is no such thing as 0 or 100% especially in the NFL
Robert Paulson Posted September 14, 2009 Posted September 14, 2009 my preseason prediction has us at 2-3 after 5 games, beating TB and Cleveland
tonyjustbcuz Posted September 14, 2009 Posted September 14, 2009 Looking at the team realistically with all of the upheaval and big changes made so close to the first game of the season, I would change your numbers a "tad": 5-0................. 0% 4-1................. 5% 3-2................. 25% 2-3................. 25% 1-4................. 40% (This realistic start should lead to DJ being fired soon!) 0-5................. 5% I'm like every other long time Bills fan. I'm hoping the Bills surprise the world beginning even with a Monday Night Miracle tonight. Unfortunately, while I certainly hope for this, reality sucks, and so do the Bills, at least on paper, before kickoff tonight. I am closer to u than the original post: 5-0........... .01 4-1........... .04 3-2........... .25 2-3........... .35 1-4........... .30 0-6........... .05 Everything changes if they pull off tonight! If they did it's more N.E. turning the ball over and self-destructing than Buffalo being explosive! Hope they find a way anyhow though... Buffalo 27 N.E. 24 (Chuckle!) probably N.E. 27 Buff 9 oh well!
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