Useless Strength of Schedule / Power Ranking info

[Koufax]

Okay, so I know Power Rankings count about as much as the preseason, but I also think predicted strength of schedule does as well. Remember last year when we had Chargers, Jaguars, and Seahawks as top 10 opponents? None of them turned out to be that.

 

So everyone is talking top five draft pick based on our tough schedule, but here is what I found. I am using ESPN Power Rankings here, which means a large grain of salt.

 

2008 Schedule based on week 1 rankings:

Average Opponent: #17.5

Average of victories: #17.7 (#2, #5, #9, #22, #27, #28, #31)

Opponent Breakdown: 5 @ top 10, 3 @ 11-19, 8 @ 20+

 

2008 Schedule based on Week 18 power rankings:

Average Opponent #19

Average of Victories: #24.8!!! (#12, #22, #25, #26, #28, #30, #31)

Opponent Breakdown: 4 @ top 10, 4 @ 11-19, 8 @ 20+

 

Now compare that to our 2009 Schedule:

Average Opponent #16.4

Opponent Breakdown: 5 @ top 10, 5 @ 11-19, 6 @ 20+

 

My points being the following:

 

1) Our 2009 schedule as of week 1 is not much harder than our 2008, but is a little harder

 

2) You never know, and our opponents will likely finish up the year very different than our current estimations. Could be harder, could be easier, but it is guaranteed not to be exactly what we or the pundits expect.

 

Last year beating San Diego would have been considered a no chance, and most people would be filling out their guesses with us beating a weak Arizona team. The Seahawks were a Super Bowl contender and so were the Jags. The Dolphins were push overs. None of that turned out to be true.

 

So what are the surprises going to be this year? Tennessee a middle of the pack team? Houston a playoff team? Saints picking in the top 5 after a couple injuries? Carolina in the bottom 10 or the top 10?

 

This is what makes the NFL season so fun. While the general attitude in Bills Nation has gone from frustrated with mediocrity after three 7-9s to worrying who we are going to pick with our top 5 draft pick, there is so much that can happen in the course of a season, and I find that in itself reason for optimism.

 

Go Bills!