BuffOrange Posted September 7, 2009 Posted September 7, 2009 Alright, 29-25 last year after a slow finish. We used to avoid opening day but screw that, there's probably more value in betting early season games. It took Vegas a while to realize the Ravens & Titans were any good last year. So lets go - all lines taken from pinnacle. Week 1 Tampa Bay + 5.5 vs. Dallas - I see two mediocre teams here. Edge to Dallas but laying this # on the road I don't get. Washington +6.5 @ NYG - With the lack of weapons in the Giants passing game I think Haynesworth & co. can contain their offense enough to keep this game close. The Skins were nearly 4-0 vs. Philly/Dallas last year with a couple big road wins before Portis broke down physically (and Campbell mentally) but had a tough time with NY. The # is just good enough to take for me as homefield doesn't mean a ton here. Cincy -4.5 vs. Denver - Obv. liked this better when it was -3 a couple weeks ago. While often a contrarian I'm in the crowded "Denver will suck" camp this year. I'm liking me some Bengals otoh this year if Palmer is healthy as defensively they weren't that bad last year. OL may have some issues but the Broncos front 7 is unlikely to exploit that. Green Bay -3.5 vs. Chicago - Another 'wish I layed 3 a couple weeks ago' line but what the hell; would've won most games I shyed away from last year. Packers are a SB contender imo who was ravaged by injuries last year. I honestly have no idea what to expect from the Bears but they were lucky to get a split in this series last year with a better/healthier team.
BuffOrange Posted September 17, 2009 Author Posted September 17, 2009 Nothin like a couple backdoor covers to salvage a .500 week (although GB did overcome some brutal officiating). Meh I probably deserved it after some of the losses last year. Week 2 is always fun because you have to decide if Vegas is going to be slow reacting to teams much better/worse than the previous year (last yr we rode the Ravens & Titans early and often) or if there's some week 1 overreactions. We're almost certainly neither betting 6 games or 4 road teams again but here we go: Week 2 Detroit +10 vs. Minnesota - I'm just not a believer in the Vikings as a SB contender (more because of Childress than Favre), and I don't think anyone who is not on that elite level should be laying these points on the road. Both of these games last year were close and one of them was gift-wrapped on a bogus interference call. NYG +3 @ Dallas - A rare game where I can't help but side with the general public. The only thing I can think of is homefield is being weighted more than usual because of the new stadium. But ehh, that didn't help the Colts last year and the Dallas crowd is always soft anyhow. Chicago +3 vs. Pittsburgh - WTF happened to Tennessee's pass-rush in the 2nd half last week? The Steelers couldn't run the ball at all sans Haynesworth; and I really think their OL weakness was a problem they inexplicably overcame last yr but can only continue for so long. I don't see them winning this game with 40 throws. Cutler & his WR's were obviously off last week but they were still in the game late on the road vs. one of the better teams in the NFC imo. New England -3.5 @ NYJ - I can't poke holes in the Jets week 1 performance. Their defense without 2 of their best players dominated a good offense on the road and the rookie QB played well in his 1st start. Doesn't that sound too good to be true for any team? I think they miss a guy like Pace this week, and if anyone can take a marginally talented defense and confuse a rookie QB, it's Bellicheat. NE's offense should clean up their uncharacteristic errors last week like dropped passes, redzone stalls, and missing 4th&shorts. Homefield in this series has historically meant nothing, so I'll give points on the road here which I very rarely do. Carolina +6.5 @ Atlanta - Lets be honest, this is a Jake Delhomme sucks line. I think his career might be done but too but we'll roll the dice this one week. I don't think going on the road can be a bad thing for him. Except for the reg. season last year the Panthers have always been a better road team under Fox anyway. Oakland +3 @ KC - Not sure but I thought the Raiders were the better team going into the season and nothing last week changed my mind. They probably should've won last week, got hosed on a TD reversal. While the Chiefs put up a great fight on the scoreboard for 57 minutes, they were pounded in every other stat category. Asomugah I think can be an answer for KC's best weapon but don't know if the Chiefs bad defense has an answer for Oakland's running game. Last Week: 2-2
KD in CA Posted September 17, 2009 Posted September 17, 2009 Not crazy about the G-men on the road or Chicago after losing their defensive leader, but like the rest of the picks. Rotsa Ruck.
BuffOrange Posted September 24, 2009 Author Posted September 24, 2009 Another fortunate .500 week. Thanks to Romo although he cost me a fantasy win. Only "why didn't I see that coming game" I regret not taking so far is Cincy +9.5 last week. The Bungles should've beaten Denver and was my preseason sleeper pick to boot, while GB who I also liked but escaped Chi despite 4 turnovers? D'oh...that's ok cause I was also thinking about Miami +3 Monday night which would've been a terrible loss. BTW anyone who has the Colts in their top 5 power ratings is insane. Not picking against them yet because the Cardinals I think are a pretty good match-up for them. Week 3 Carolina +9 @ Dallas - Biggest wtf line I've seen in long time. To be fair the Cowboys had no business losing last week if not for terrible QB play but even if they had won by 14 I'd be taking the points here. None of the fantasy experts bashing the Panthers run defense seem to understand it took Turner 28 carries to top 100 last week. Buffalo +6 vs. NO - See thread in main forum. Miami +6 @ San Diego - Jamal Williams is the biggest loss to injury nobody's talking about that I can remember in a long time. I think their run defense is going to suck like their pass defense sucked without Merriman last year. I also think they are finished as SB contenders. This should be a dogfight. I think that's all for this week. YTD: 5-5
BuffOrange Posted September 30, 2009 Author Posted September 30, 2009 4th Qtr = Fail x3. Week 4 NE -1 vs. B'more - Vegas officially caught on to the Ravens (not sure they ever did last yr). Don't think they're going undefeated. Also I still haven't found a "this year's Baltimore/Tennessee that I like KC +9 vs. NYG - Strictly a gut pick tbh. Worked for me last yr with the same line in the same building against Denver. Plus it's the 3rd straight road game for the Gmen and they're banged up. NYJ +7 @NO - Did you think last week was more the Saints D or the Bills O? Yah me too. SF -9.5 vs. STL - Being a Steven Jackson fantasy owner the last few yrs I've noticed he does better at home; mostly because his awful team is behind 21-0 in every road game. So what the hell, no Gore, no problem. Impressive showing by the 9ers @Minny last week I thought. Denver +3 vs. Dallas - Meh I just don't get why this isn't a pick 'em. San Diego +6.5 @ Pittsburgh - Steelers don't run well enough to exploit the loss of Williams. They also stop the run too well for LT2's status to really matter. So not a bad matchup for the Chargers. I don't think. Last Week: 0-3 YTD: 5-8
BuffOrange Posted October 10, 2009 Author Posted October 10, 2009 Week 5 Houston +5.5 @ Arizona - Almost mirror images of each other (even last yr just in varying divisions of difficulty); should be getting the token FG here but I'll take the 5.5. Tennessee +3.5 vs. Indy - Most seem to think this line is low, but with the Titans playing their first bad game last week and the Colts playing their 2nd good game (against a Seattle team that never shows up in a big spot on the road) it's a little inflated imo. St. Louis +10 vs. Minnesota - We'll take one more swing with a bad team at home getting a bundle of points. The Rams defense showed some life last week harassing Shaun Hill and closing up the running lanes but the putrid offense gave them no chance. They may only need a couple plays and/or a Vikes letdown to cover this # at home. Last Week: 3-3 YTD: 8-11
taterhill Posted October 10, 2009 Posted October 10, 2009 Do you just bet single games or do you ever do Parlays or teasers?
BuffOrange Posted October 10, 2009 Author Posted October 10, 2009 Do you just bet single games or do you ever do Parlays or teasers? Nah it's been proven over time that teasers are (more-so) impossible in the long-run. I just know enough to never cross the zero, which a lot of people inexplicably do.
BuffOrange Posted October 14, 2009 Author Posted October 14, 2009 Gahh, so much fail. This season is bizzaro world. Apparently you just lay wood on the road and profit. Stupid Matt Schaub. Stupid Rams. They actually pushed Minny around the field in the 1st half but killed themselves. I don't like that Vikings team when they start playing real teams. Week 6 KC +6.5 @ Washington Seattle -3 vs. Arizona Atlanta -3 vs. Chicago Denver +4 @ San Diego Last week: 0-3 YTD: 8-14
BuffOrange Posted October 25, 2009 Author Posted October 25, 2009 Week 7 KC +5 vs. SD Miami +6 vs. NO Pittsburgh -6 vs. Minnesota Last Week: 3-1 YTD: 11-15
taterhill Posted November 15, 2009 Posted November 15, 2009 What happened? Did the Bookie pay you a visit?
BuffOrange Posted November 16, 2009 Author Posted November 16, 2009 What happened? Did the Bookie pay you a visit? Haha, I'm surprised there hasn't been more ball-busting than this. Road favorites have been sooo much better this year than I ever remember; and those are the teams I rarely pick and often fade. Bob Matthews from the D&C has a winning record for crying out loud, which tell me the season has been very outlier; but I don't expect many to understand that. Finally today that came down to earth. But I don't want to just rule out the possibility that I'm doing something wrong either. Haven't been reading Football Outsiders as much this year for one thing.
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