JOHNNYFAIRPLAY Posted September 8, 2009 Posted September 8, 2009 9/10 8:30 ET At Pittsburgh -5.5 Tennessee 35 9/13 1:00 ET At Atlanta -4 Miami 43 9/13 1:00 ET At Baltimore -11 Kansas City 37 9/13 1:00 ET Philadelphia -1 At Carolina 43 9/13 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -4 Denver 43.5 9/13 1:00 ET Minnesota -4 At Cleveland 40 9/13 1:00 ET At Houston -4.5 NY Jets 43 9/13 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -7 Jacksonville 44.5 9/13 1:00 ET At New Orleans -13 Detroit 48.5 9/13 1:00 ET Dallas -5.5 At Tampa Bay 39 9/13 4:15 ET At Arizona -6.5 San Francisco 46 9/13 4:15 ET At NY Giants -6.5 Washington 37.5 9/13 4:15 ET At Seattle -7.5 St. Louis 41.5 9/13 8:20 ET At Green Bay -3.5 Chicago 46 Monday Night Football Line 9/14 7:00 ET At New England -10.5 Buffalo 47.5 9/14 10:15 ET San Diego -9.5 At Oakland 43 I can not believe that only the Lions are giving more points than the Bills. Hell Oakland is giving 9.5 and they are sappose to be a train wreck. I know I am hoping for the best as there is nothing I hate more that the Patriots but 10.5... WOW GO BILLS!! I hope you took that bet because NE is going to winn by minimum 21 points. This game is going to be very very ugly.
BuffOrange Posted September 12, 2009 Posted September 12, 2009 If your intent was to be helpful, you failed. Care to enighten us? Oddsmakers certainly do set lines based upon the spread they feel will attract even money to both sides. Is this inaccurate? Even money, yes. Even # of bettors, no. Most people don't understand the difference. Not surprisingly the line isn't approaching 14 as predicted itt.
coastalpika Posted September 12, 2009 Posted September 12, 2009 98% of the public is currently on the Pats at -11. I am taking sides with the bookies and putting a nickel on the Bills. Lets go Buffalo! Shock and awe on monday night..
Clippers of Nfl Posted September 12, 2009 Posted September 12, 2009 this is what we all do. bet 20 bucks on the pats to win. 1 of 2 possibilities 1. bills lose. you made 20 bucks for betting against them. at least it makes the loss feel a little better. monsters or rockstars all week long. 2. bills win. you only lost 20 bucks and who the hell cares. bills won. i prefer option # 2 from above by the way. bo bills!!!!!
Georgia Bill Posted September 12, 2009 Posted September 12, 2009 It kinda sucks that about the most we can hope for out of the Bills this year is that they beat the point spread.
Saudi Arabia Rob Posted September 12, 2009 Posted September 12, 2009 On a somewhat related note, it's interesting how today's article in the News talks about how Tom Brady lobbied Belichek to play every available snap during the pre-season, while our coaching staff "rested" our starting QB in the last preseason game. Maybe the took the same amount of snaps, but you can't help but notice the different attitudes.
Koufax Posted September 12, 2009 Posted September 12, 2009 I hope you took that bet because NE is going to winn by minimum 21 points. This game is going to be very very ugly. So how much money do you have down on the game? It seems like if you are that sure it would make sense to but some serious cash on the Patriots right? Go down to the Money Tree, get a payday loan for a couple of grand, and go to an online site and put your money where your mouth is. I don't bet on sports because I am somewhat less sure of things than you are. There are lots of NE victories that could be under 10 points but still no chance for us, and there are different ways the Bills pull the upset. I think a big NE victory covering the spread is more likely than not, but I laugh at the certainty of the pessimism that is pervasive on this board.
mjohns85 Posted September 12, 2009 Posted September 12, 2009 98% of the public is currently on the Pats at -11. I am taking sides with the bookies and putting a nickel on the Bills. Lets go Buffalo! Shock and awe on monday night.. i like your strategy, thats how i usually pick my bets and it works a good majority of the time
MRM33064 Posted September 12, 2009 Posted September 12, 2009 It's not exactly surprising to see the MNF favorite get bid up, so if you're feeling a bit mentally unstable and see yourself betting the Bills .... do yourself a favor and wait a bit. There's a better than average chance you'll get a better number/moneyline price by waiting, especially if Joe "I use my TIVO and claim I'm watching game film" Public loses all his money on the Saints and Ravens and needs MNF to win back his milk money.
oak tree 12 Posted September 12, 2009 Posted September 12, 2009 9/10 8:30 ET At Pittsburgh -5.5 Tennessee 35 9/13 1:00 ET At Atlanta -4 Miami 43 9/13 1:00 ET At Baltimore -11 Kansas City 37 9/13 1:00 ET Philadelphia -1 At Carolina 43 9/13 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -4 Denver 43.5 9/13 1:00 ET Minnesota -4 At Cleveland 40 9/13 1:00 ET At Houston -4.5 NY Jets 43 9/13 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -7 Jacksonville 44.5 9/13 1:00 ET At New Orleans -13 Detroit 48.5 9/13 1:00 ET Dallas -5.5 At Tampa Bay 39 9/13 4:15 ET At Arizona -6.5 San Francisco 46 9/13 4:15 ET At NY Giants -6.5 Washington 37.5 9/13 4:15 ET At Seattle -7.5 St. Louis 41.5 9/13 8:20 ET At Green Bay -3.5 Chicago 46 Monday Night Football Line 9/14 7:00 ET At New England -10.5 Buffalo 47.5 9/14 10:15 ET San Diego -9.5 At Oakland 43 I can not believe that only the Lions are giving more points than the Bills. Hell Oakland is giving 9.5 and they are sappose to be a train wreck. I know I am hoping for the best as there is nothing I hate more that the Patriots but 10.5... WOW GO BILLS!! actually the line is low it should be much higher. i think it opened @ 12 or 11.5 and its come down thats a good sign for bills fans!
BuffOrange Posted September 12, 2009 Posted September 12, 2009 It's not exactly surprising to see the MNF favorite get bid up, so if you're feeling a bit mentally unstable and see yourself betting the Bills .... do yourself a favor and wait a bit. There's a better than average chance you'll get a better number/moneyline price by waiting, especially if Joe "I use my TIVO and claim I'm watching game film" Public loses all his money on the Saints and Ravens and needs MNF to win back his milk money. Please stop it with this. It was wrong last week, it was wrong on Thursday, and it's wrong today. Milk money doesn't move lines.
Pete Posted September 12, 2009 Posted September 12, 2009 I love the Bills +10.5 and will take them. I think this years Bills teams will surprise. Might I add that I have a $50 bet at Caesars 28-1 for Buffalo to win the Superbowl
GR8PRKN Posted September 12, 2009 Author Posted September 12, 2009 I love the Bills +10.5 and will take them. I think this years Bills teams will surprise. Might I add that I have a $50 bet at Caesars 28-1 for Buffalo to win the Superbowl I do the same bet every year! 50 for the AFC and 50 for the superbowl!!
CodeMonkey Posted September 13, 2009 Posted September 13, 2009 I love the Bills +10.5 and will take them. I think this years Bills teams will surprise. Might I add that I have a $50 bet at Caesars 28-1 for Buffalo to win the Superbowl 28-1? Seems low. I believe online places have it at 60-1 at the moment.
MRM33064 Posted September 13, 2009 Posted September 13, 2009 Please stop it with this. It was wrong last week, it was wrong on Thursday, and it's wrong today. Milk money doesn't move lines. Nationally televised night games (pro and college, for that matter, particularly the games involving teams who are the current darling of the ESPN crowd), are really among some of the best data subsets to study vis-a-vis anticipating/predicting potential line movement. A substantial amount of public money comes in on these games, it frequently comes in late, tends to come in heavy on the favorite, and is often corrleated to the outcome of similarly lined day games. (Some will say so-called "sharp" money then comes in very late, i.e. very close to post.) None of those things are givens, but historically relevant. Personally, I don't see any fundamental reasons why the Bills should be a good play. However, I was simply suggesting that there is a good chance (not a guarantee, but a chance) that someone who was leaning toward betting the Bills could get a better price/number by waiting a bit.
eball Posted September 13, 2009 Posted September 13, 2009 Even money, yes. Even # of bettors, no. Most people don't understand the difference. Not surprisingly the line isn't approaching 14 as predicted itt. Please point out the part of my original post in which I claimed the oddsmakers want an even number of bettors. It's so refreshing to be "educated" by you gambling know-it-alls.
ndirish1978 Posted September 13, 2009 Posted September 13, 2009 That number is low 1- Bills have lost 3 straight Monday Night games 2- Bills have lost 11 straight games to the Pats 3- Fired OC a week before the season 4- Are not returning a single starter on the OL in the same position. Yes, they sucked last year, but OL is about familiarity and our guys don't know each other. With Brady coming back, the Pats will be looking at this as a statement game. I'm afraid we're going to get rolled on by at least 17
BuffOrange Posted September 13, 2009 Posted September 13, 2009 Please point out the part of my original post in which I claimed the oddsmakers want an even number of bettors. It's so refreshing to be "educated" by you gambling know-it-alls. The betting public (which is all the oddsmakers care about) believe the Bills are a mess, firing their OC 10 days before the season and returning a HC most thought would be canned after last season. They also believe TO will be a disruptive force in the locker room because that's what the national media portrays. I actually think the line is low -- probably because that same betting public isn't quite sure whether Brady is the "old" Brady. I mean I guess this was vague enough that you can backpedal, but you're pretty clearly saying that the media-brainwashed drones (who btw are not concerned about Brady whatsoever) are even in numbers on both sides. It'd be pretty easy to bet against the Cowboys, Lakers, and Yankees every game and profit if this big market hogwash were true.
BuffOrange Posted September 13, 2009 Posted September 13, 2009 Nationally televised night games (pro and college, for that matter, particularly the games involving teams who are the current darling of the ESPN crowd), are really among some of the best data subsets to study vis-a-vis anticipating/predicting potential line movement. A substantial amount of public money comes in on these games, it frequently comes in late, tends to come in heavy on the favorite, and is often corrleated to the outcome of similarly lined day games. (Some will say so-called "sharp" money then comes in very late, i.e. very close to post.) None of those things are givens, but historically relevant. Personally, I don't see any fundamental reasons why the Bills should be a good play. However, I was simply suggesting that there is a good chance (not a guarantee, but a chance) that someone who was leaning toward betting the Bills could get a better price/number by waiting a bit. Fair enough. Yah it's definitely more likely to go to 11.5 than 9.5. Biggest square side of the week has to be Minnesota.
MRM33064 Posted September 14, 2009 Posted September 14, 2009 Fair enough. Yah it's definitely more likely to go to 11.5 than 9.5. Biggest square side of the week has to be Minnesota. 12s pretty widely available now, it might be capping off. Agree w/you on Minnesota btw ... that result might set up for a hold-your-nose play on Detroit as the home dog next week. EDIT (5pm): 13s now out there. I suppose it could go even higher, but I'd go ahead and grab that now if I were inclined to back our beloved Bills, though I'm not. :-)
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