How much longer

[Orton's Arm]

Despite what I believe to have been a good draft this past April, the Bills are still several years away from fielding a good team. Let's look at the starting talent on-hand already. I've rated each guy as a "yes" type player (meaning we can count on him for good play for the next several years, a "maybe" player (meaning we may or may not be able to count on him) or a "no" player (a guy who due to age, contract issues, or quality of play, will need to be replaced).

 

Offense

QB - Trent Edwards. Rating: Maybe. We'll learn more about him this upcoming season

RB - Lynch. Rating: Maybe. He's playing at a high level now, but durability could become an issue over the next few years.

LT: Langston Walker. Rating: No. There's no way that guy is the long-term answer at LT. However, we have a "maybe" player at backup LT, in the form of Bell.

LG: Levitre. Rating: Maybe

C: Hangartner. Rating: Maybe

RG: Wood. Rating: Yes

RT: Butler. Rating: No. Butler isn't good enough to be a solid, long-term solution at RT

WR: Lee Evans. Rating: Yes

WR: Terrell Owens. Rating: No (he's gone after the season). But we have Steve Johnson and James Hardy as backup #2 receivers; both of whom are "Maybe" players.

Slot WR: Josh Reed. Rating: Maybe. The problem here is that Reed was drafted in 2002; and this chart is about how well guys are likely to play two or three years from now.

TE: Nelson. Rating: Maybe

 

Totals

Yes: 2

Maybe: 7

No: 2

 

Defense

DE: Maybin. Rating: maybe

DE: Ellis. Rating: maybe

DT Stroud. Rating: maybe. The problem here is that it's not clear how much longer Stroud can play at a high level.

DT: McCargo. Rating: Maybe. Maybe this will be McCargo's breakout year

OLB: Mitchell. Rating: No. He's a hot and cold player right now. In a few years' time, the cold periods are likely to become longer and more frequent.

OLB: Keith Ellison. Rating: No.

ILB: Poz. Rating: Yes.

SS: Donte Whitner. Rating: Yes. While Whitner hasn't come close to living up to his #8 overall draft position, he should be able to play SS at a solid level.

FS: Byrd. Rating: Maybe.

CB: McGee. Rating: Maybe. McGee is entering the last year of his contract, and the Bills aren't exactly known for a tendency to retain their best CBs. Another "maybe" player, such as Corner, could step in if needed.

CB: McKelvin. Rating: yes. (At least until his first contract expires.)

 

Totals

Yes: 3

Maybe: 6

No: 2

 

Aggregate Totals:

Yes: 5

Maybe: 13

No: 4

 

Under a best-case scenario, each of those 13 "maybe" players will turn out well, which would probably allow the Bills to field a very good team just one year from now. Unfortunately, that best-case scenario requires an almost Senator-like level of optimism. A more realistic scenario would involve six or seven of the maybe players turning out well, with the other six or seven needing to be replaced. Adding in the four no players, you're looking at ten or eleven holes that need to be filled.

 

Filling those holes via free agency is problematic, in the sense that it's very rare for a good player to be allowed to hit free agency in the prime of his career. Typically, free agency will get you second-rate players, or else aging veterans nearing the ends of their careers. Usually, free agency is more likely to produce a Band-Aid solution (Robert Royal, Trey Teague, Melvin Fowler, etc.) than a permanent solution. So the main burden of filling those ten or eleven holes is going to be in the draft.

 

Let's assume that a first round pick gives you a 100% chance of filling a hole, a 2nd round pick is a 50% chance, a third round pick is a 25% chance, and the remaining picks taper off from there. You'd be looking at filling about two holes a year; which would imply roughly a five year rebuilding project. The problem is that by the end of those five years, some of the players you'd been counting on earlier in the analysis will start to reach the ends of their careers. That would create more holes to fill, and would delay the rebuilding project even longer.

 

Clearly, the rebuilding period needs to be shortened to just two or (more likely) three years. How can that be effected?

1. Don't let your own success stories leave via free agency in the primes of their careers. Extending McGee would be a good start.

2. Each year, sign a good free agent in the prime of his career. (This may be difficult, due to availability and budgetary constraints.)

3. Decide which positions are critical, and which are merely important. Be content with solid but unspectacular play at the latter category of positions. The Bills shouldn't use high draft picks on DBs for the next several years, for example, because the guys we have on the roster already should be able to hold their own. And because DBs are less critical than some other positions.

 

Doing those three things should accelerate the rebuilding process enough to lead to a relatively complete team in about three years time; and perhaps a very good team in just two years. Of course, that hypothetical success is contingent on a well-run front office, a good coaching staff, and an owner willing to support the first two by opening his wallet.

[spartacus]

how long until they field a competitive team?

 

for a real NFL organization, it would be about 3 weeks after they replaced the clown show in the front office and hired an NFL caliber coaching staff - all of which shared the same basic philosophy of dominating the line of scrimmage.

 

the team has enough talent to compete - but not when they are not prepared to play in the NFL.

 

not hitting in training camp,

not practicing outside

 

these kids deserve better than the bottom of the barrel coaching the are now getting which results in them getting embarassed

 

gee- another 3-4 defense and Trent still does not have foggiest idea have to attack it.

 

maybe if they practiced during training camp, they could devote a few plays exclusively to the 3-4

[Max997]

probably not until there is a new owner

[DC Tom]

Statistically speaking, about three and a half years.

[Tcali]

Its up to edwards and the front office. If TE pans out and the front office gets some serious D front 7 help we will contend.

Our skill positions are just fine with the ?mark being Trents development.

I like our off season moves;because we were in an impossible situation and moved to a situation where we are 1-2 seasons away from possibly contending.

[Fezmid]

3 weeks, 1 day... Then we beat the Pats!

[BillsVet]

Its up to edwards and the front office. If TE pans out and the front office gets some serious D front 7 help we will contend.

Our skill positions are just fine with the ?mark being Trents development.

I like our off season moves;because we were in an impossible situation and moved to a situation where we are 1-2 seasons away from possibly contending.

 

The front office has been essentially in place for the better part of the decade. They have not earned the benefit of the doubt, and waiting for them to deliver in personnel is worthless.

 

In the last five season of AFC play, 4 teams (PIT, NE, IND, and SD) account for 17 of the 30 playoff appearances. Obviously the executives in those franchises, Kevin Colbert, Belichick/Pioli, Polian, and AJ Smith have it figured out. Another five teams (NYJ, DEN, BAL, TEN, and JAC) have been in the post-season twice. That means 9 out of the 16 AFC teams account for 90% of the playoff berths.

 

Just four teams have not made the playoffs in the past five seasons of AFC play: BUF, OAK, CIN, and HOU. This front office is being schooled, especially the owner who isn't a Mike Brown, but still has his hands all over this failure. After three seasons, I expect more.

 

This teams is 3 seasons removed from an almost total rebuild. They need to win now, not 2-3 years from now. And that means nuking the organization if they don't win in 2009.

[spartacus]

The front office has been essentially in place for the better part of the decade. They have not earned the benefit of the doubt, and waiting for them to deliver in personnel is worthless.

 

In the last five season of AFC play, 4 teams (PIT, NE, IND, and SD) account for 17 of the 30 playoff appearances. Obviously the executives in those franchises, Kevin Colbert, Belichick/Pioli, Polian, and AJ Smith have it figured out. Another five teams (NYJ, DEN, BAL, TEN, and JAC) have been in the post-season twice. That means 9 out of the 16 AFC teams account for 90% of the playoff berths.

 

Just four teams have not made the playoffs in the past five seasons of AFC play: BUF, OAK, CIN, and HOU. This front office is being schooled, especially the owner who isn't a Mike Brown, but still has his hands all over this failure. After three seasons, I expect more.

 

This teams is 3 seasons removed from an almost total rebuild. They need to win now, not 2-3 years from now. And that means nuking the organization if they don't win in 2009.

 

why do they have to win now??

 

to sell tickets?

they set ticket sales records this year after finishing 2-8.

 

why would ownership spend more money paying fired coaches and front office staff and then paying even more money for top quality people when they can't generate any more revenue than what they have right now.

 

 

to keep the fans happy??

see above

 

as long as Ralph owns the team, the corporate directive is to make money, not contend for a title.

['64 Bills]

how long until they field a competitive team?

 

for a real NFL organization, it would be about 3 weeks after they replaced the clown show in the front office and hired an NFL caliber coaching staff - all of which shared the same basic philosophy of dominating the line of scrimmage.

 

the team has enough talent to compete - but not when they are not prepared to play in the NFL.

 

not hitting in training camp,

not practicing outside

 

these kids deserve better than the bottom of the barrel coaching the are now getting which results in them getting embarassed

 

gee- another 3-4 defense and Trent still does not have foggiest idea have to attack it.

 

maybe if they practiced during training camp, they could devote a few plays exclusively to the 3-4

 

you are so correct about being UNPREPARED. After all the OTA's, camps and pre-season games this team is unprepared game after game.

[BillsVet]

why do they have to win now??

 

to sell tickets?

they set ticket sales records this year after finishing 2-8.

 

why would ownership spend more money paying fired coaches and front office staff and then paying even more money for top quality people when they can't generate any more revenue than what they have right now.

 

 

to keep the fans happy??

see above

 

as long as Ralph owns the team, the corporate directive is to make money, not contend for a title.

 

I was not at RWS during the final days of TD's tenure. But I've read and spoke with season ticket holders from 2005 that it was got ugly. It's still August and opening day isn't for another 3 weeks, but if this team starts off slow, I anticipate big problems at RWS.

 

You can only hype a team so much before fans demand results. For three years the team has talked about the good things without really changing anything. Promising everything and delivering nothing is wearing thin among Bills fans.

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

I like the statistics here, since they do tell us something, though they also tell me that there is far less parity in the AFC over the last five seasons. You say that only four teams have not made the playoffs in that period, but your stats also show that three more have only been once in the past five years. The implication that in the free agency era it is a simple matter to rebuild appears to be undermined by such stats, don't you think?

 

To coin a phrase, it is hard to make the playoffs in the AFC....

 

 

 

The front office has been essentially in place for the better part of the decade. They have not earned the benefit of the doubt, and waiting for them to deliver in personnel is worthless.

 

In the last five season of AFC play, 4 teams (PIT, NE, IND, and SD) account for 17 of the 30 playoff appearances. Obviously the executives in those franchises, Kevin Colbert, Belichick/Pioli, Polian, and AJ Smith have it figured out. Another five teams (NYJ, DEN, BAL, TEN, and JAC) have been in the post-season twice. That means 9 out of the 16 AFC teams account for 90% of the playoff berths.

 

Just four teams have not made the playoffs in the past five seasons of AFC play: BUF, OAK, CIN, and HOU. This front office is being schooled, especially the owner who isn't a Mike Brown, but still has his hands all over this failure. After three seasons, I expect more.

 

This teams is 3 seasons removed from an almost total rebuild. They need to win now, not 2-3 years from now. And that means nuking the organization if they don't win in 2009.

[JohnC]

probably not until there is a new owner

 

Over the past decade the Bills have ranked 29 out of 32 teams for wins. The winning percentage is .417 The record is 60-84.

 

The Falcons owner hired Dimitroff from the Pats to be their GM last year. He took over a team in a state of chaos due to the traitorous Petrino resignation and Mike Vick's criminal and sickening dog activities. In the first season under his tenure he got his team in the playoffs after drafting for his franchise qb (Ryan), having a good draft, making smart free agency decisions and hired a new HC, Smith.

 

Last year, the Dolphins owner hired Bill Parcells to take over the football operations of a team which won ONE game. They turned it around the first season with a 11-5 record and made the playoffs. Big Bill hired a new HC in Sporano, and hired Ireland as his main personnel person.

 

The owner of the Bills has kept in place the same front office staff which Tom Donahoe assmembled in John Guy, the pro scout, and Tom Modrak, the main college scout who have been with the organization during the losing decade. The owner of the Bills then elevated the marketing specialist, Russ Brandon, to lead the football operations when the congenial Marv Levy stepped down. It is not clear what Marv's actual role was with the team. When asked what his role was he said something to the effect that it was his job to create a more collaborative environment.

 

Anyone who doesn't understand why the Bills are a dysfunctional organization is clueless.

[Buffaloed in Pa]

Whenever Dick Zombie is gone

[Kipers Hair]

New coach and some player turn over - 3 years....

[BillsVet]

I like the statistics here, since they do tell us something, though they also tell me that there is far less parity in the AFC over the last five seasons. You say that only four teams have not made the playoffs in that period, but your stats also show that three more have only been once in the past five years. The implication that in the free agency era it is a simple matter to rebuild appears to be undermined by such stats, don't you think?

 

To coin a phrase, it is hard to make the playoffs in the AFC....

 

Even though the league can keep teams relatively equal in salary cap dollars, they can do nothing about the people who actually use that money. There's no question a chasm exists between the bottom feeders and those who regularly have post-season success.

 

PIT, IND, and SD aren't big UFA users. NE hasn't signed a big UFA since Adalius Thomas in 2007. Yet all four win season after season. I chalk it up to talent evaluation in the draft, and they've all built long term successful organizations this way. I recall when Jerry Jones was spending big in the mid 90s and pushing cap jail off one more season. It didn't work. Now, teams realize success does not lie with spending more in UFA, but remaining far beneath the cap max and doing the due diligence before draft day.

 

It is possible to rebuild quickly, so long as a team has the right people upstairs who can identify and draft talent. Atlanta and Miami did it, but not without their ownership looking in the mirror and realizing there was a huge problem.

 

My problem with the Bills is on two fronts: coaching and management. There's no question talent exists on both sides of the ball, although not as much as I'd like in the trenches. 2009 should be interesting, but if they have a bad season, I'm interested to see how management beyond the coaching staff is addressed.

[evilbuffalobob]

how long until they field a competitive team?

 

for a real NFL organization, it would be about 3 weeks after they replaced the clown show in the front office and hired an NFL caliber coaching staff - all of which shared the same basic philosophy of dominating the line of scrimmage.

 

the team has enough talent to compete - but not when they are not prepared to play in the NFL.

 

not hitting in training camp,

not practicing outside

 

these kids deserve better than the bottom of the barrel coaching the are now getting which results in them getting embarassed

 

gee- another 3-4 defense and Trent still does not have foggiest idea have to attack it.

 

maybe if they practiced during training camp, they could devote a few plays exclusively to the 3-4

 

Its been so long since we've beaten a 3-4 defensed team, I'm starting to wonder if 3-4's actually are beatable. Are they? If two 3-4's play each other... then what happens? I miss Bum Phillips Jr and the days when Buff played 3-4 when it was unfashionable (yet effective).

 

The reason we can't get the 34 monkey off our backs is bad coaching. There's no other variable.

[JohnC]

Whenever Dick Zombie is gone

 

There is no doubt that the coaching staff led by the HC is a critical component for success in the NFL. But the source of the problem for the Bills' product on the field goes much deeper. This league, like all pro leagues, is talent driven. The front office is primarily responsible for assembling a team. Our front office as it is presently constituted is very mediocre. It has been for a long time.

 

There is no surprise that the Bills' best seasons were under the direction of Bill Polian. He was fired by the owner. While he has been with the Colts his team has made the playoffs nine out of ten years, and have a SB trophy on their premises. Our owner also fired John Butler/A.J. Smith. They were immediately hired to takeover the reigns for the Chargers. The Chargers are a SB talent laden team.

 

Until a quality front office is established there is little hope to consistently compete against winning organizations.If you look at teams such as Pittsburgh, Philly, Baltimore, New England, Giants, Tenn. etc. what they all have in common is a strong front office. Until the declining owner recognizes the importance of hiring a quality front office the Bills will continue to muddle along. You would think that after a generation of losing he would finally get the point. Or just maybe he doesn't give a dam as long as he gets regular currency windfall each year.

[spartacus]

. Or just maybe he doesn't give a dam as long as he gets regular currency windfall each year.

 

 

 

ding, ding ding!!!!

 

we have a winner!!