How valuable is a first round draft pick?

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Cliff notes begin{ I like how YD has used the 1st round in the draft to get value this team needs at affordable prices. Its too bad though that he has added a poor HC choice and reinvestment in Bledsoe onto this draft work i jind to be good. Cliff notes end.

 

 

I start this as a separate thread than the one about how the Bills can get a #1 because though it is obviously related to what we specifically do, its the broader team building philosophy point that I'm interested in getting info on.

 

I was actually surprised that in the thread about specific Bill draft choices and options no one included TDs direct quote from a couple of days ago about building a team through the draft. In response to a question about how he was going to get a 1st round pick for the team next year he said:

 

There may be nothing more overrated than the first round draft picks. Statistically, about 50 percent of them fail and do not always live up to sometimes unrealistic expectations. You always try to do what is best for your team when it comes to personnel decisions. That is generally the bottom line in what you use as a guideline when making personnel decisions or determining what to do with the draft picks.

 

Based on this quote I think the likely answer to the question about what we do is not go out of our way for a 2005 #1 draft pick (though I'm happy to be lied to by TD in order to fool our opponents) but the interesting thins to me is that this lays out a team building philosophy which I tend to agree with in the cap era.

 

I think many posters on TSW symply overvalue the draft. Good players have to come from somewhere so there are tons of examples of good players who were drafted early, but its also is quite likely (and I would not even be shocked if they are almost equally likely when it comes to measures such as Pro bowl appearances, SB MVPs and big second contracts) that there is great value to be found in late draft picks like Tom Brady, UDFAs like Kurt Warner and Jake Delhomme and mutliple time rejects or cap casualties like Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer.

 

Sprinkle in examples like Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Andre Ware etc. and the only real certainty about a 1st round pick is that he is going to be highly paid.

 

TD has been roundly lambasted on TSW for being a lousy drafter, but by his own stated standards for a 1st round pick and its my sense too he actually has done well for 1st round picks and likewise looking deeper in his drafts.

 

2001- Success- Clements is our #1 CB who made the team comfortable not paying the big bucks to Winfield. Like all CBs he makes some errors (not knocking down a ball in the Jax game is the notable one). However, overall though he not yet drawn a Pro Bowl nod he has scored a few TDs off INTs in his career and is enough of a playmaker that he forced his way into the PR job. TD actually traded down to get him and still got the first CB pick that year so this pick was a winner in my book.

 

2002- Disappointment- I think it is clear and seems reasonable that folks have been disappointed in the production of this player picked 4th in the draft. Hpwever, his unprofessional reaction to a horrible thing when a family member died does not make him a bust yet because:

 

1. Unfortunate injury aside he looks great the last few weeks.

2. He has not really gotten professional level OL coaching from the Bills yet under Vinky and Ruel and his recent improvement and rebound from this summers failures are looking like good JMac work though it is still too early to tell.

3. He ws a clear need pick by the Bills and given how folks passed over to get him have done (such as Jerry Sullivan and others hyperventilating over McKinnie only to see him perform like he did on Monday night) he was certainly a reasonable pick at the time.

 

2003- Unconventional success- Here we begin to see more conclusive evidence of the low value which TD places on a first round choice. He traded it away for Bledsoe (a good move at the time in my book and on the field Bledse's first year until his play went south). TG seems to put a high value on in essence getting something for nothing by tading away next year's 1st. I ronically he got it back with a great GM maneuver on PP but used the acquired pick to speculate and it really looks like that speculation will pay off. When you toss in that in the final analysi, the 2003 first round choice became one Pro Bowl year and one garbage year out of Drew AND a speculative deal leading to a sweetheart contract for the Bills for the payoff we are getting, I think that his work with this draft pick was a success.

 

2004- Too early to tell on Evans but so far so good.

 

2005- We already got Losman with this pick and even without his injury (and by necessity with it) he needed to sit and learn much of if not all of his first year anyway. Particularly when you add in that there appear to be no or few outstanding QBs coming out of college this year, TDs habndling of the draft in this case (also as our 2nd draft pick this year TD got this/his speculative man for a good price).

 

 

At any rate, by his own standards TD feels that if he is average in the NFL when the smoke clears on the 4 first round choices he has made that have played for the Bills 2 would likely end up being considered disappointments. However, in terms of looking at an assessing these four choices, 1 had really paid off (Clements), 1 looks like he will payoff big time (WM), one has disappointed though the current returns indicate a reasonable potential for a turnaround (MW) and too early to tell but so far so good on the early returns on Evans.

 

When you add on to that TD's handling of the 2005 draft pick in terms of reading the Bills QB development needs and the 2005 QB market this move looks good even with the injury.

 

At any rate I trek though this Bills stuff as an example of how the philosophy of the 1st round pick is a risky prospect at best. I think that TD has shown an outside of the box level of thinking and implementation regarding 1st round picks and though he has not been able to overcome a poor choice by him pf GW I think his draft philosophy makes sense.

 

What I;d really love to see if someone has a link to an article which has done the work or if someone out there has done the work is wether the numbers and credible opinions bear out TDs statement that 50% of 1st round picks are disppointments.

[JimBob2232]

I am not going to show you statistics, but here is the 2000 draft

 

1 Cleveland Brown, Courtney DE Penn State

2 Washington Arrington, LaVar OLB Penn State

3 Washington Samuels, Chris T Alabama

4 Cincinnati Warrick, Peter WR Florida State

5 Baltimore Lewis, Jamal RB Tennessee

6 Philadelphia Simon, Corey DT Florida State

7 Arizona Jones, Thomas RB Virginia

8 Pittsburgh Burress, Plaxico WR Michigan State

9 Chicago Urlacher, Brian MLB New Mexico

10 Baltimore Taylor, Travis WR Florida

11 N.Y. Giants Dayne, Ron RB Wisconsin

12 N.Y. Jets Ellis, Shaun DE Tennessee

13 N.Y. Jets Abraham, John DE South Carolina

14 Green Bay Franks, Bubba TE Miami

15 Denver O'Neal, Deltha CB California

16 San Francisco Peterson, Julian OLB Michigan State

17 Oakland Janikowski, Sebastian K Florida State

18 N.Y. Jets Pennington, Chad QB Marshall

19 Seattle Alexander, Shaun RB Alabama

20 Detroit McDougle, Stockar T Oklahoma

21 Kansas City Morris, Sylvester WR Jackson State

22 Seattle McIntosh, Chris T Wisconsin

23 Carolina Anderson, Rashard CB Jackson State

24 San Francisco Plummer, Ahmed CB Ohio State

25 Minnesota Hovan, Chris DT Boston College

26 Buffalo Flowers, Erik OLB Arizona State

27 N.Y. Jets Becht, Anthony TE West Virginia

28 Indianapolis Morris, Rob MLB Brigham Young

29 Jacksonville Soward, R. Jay WR Southern California

30 Tennessee Bulluck, Keith OLB Syracuse

31 St. Louis Canidate, Trung RB Arizona

 

The 1999 draft

 

1 Cleveland Tim Couch QB Kentucky

2 Philadelphia Donovan McNabb QB Syracuse

3 Cincinnati Akili Smith QB Oregon

4 Indianapolis Edgerrin James RB Miami

5 New Orleans (from Wash) Ricky Williams RB Texas

6 St. Louis Torry Holt WR North Carolina St

7 Washington (from Chicago) Champ Bailey CB Georgia

8 Arizona David Boston WR Ohio State

9 Detroit Chris Claiborne LB Southern Cal

10 Baltimore Chris McAlister CB Arizona

11 Minnesota Daunte Culpepper QB Central Florida

12 Chicago (from Wash) Cade McNown QB UCLA

13 Pittsburgh Troy Edwards WR Louisiana Tech

14 Kansas City John Tait OT Brigham Young

15 Tampa Bay Anthony McFarland DT Louisiana State

16 Tennessee Jevon Kearse DE Florida

17 New England (from Seattle) Damien Woody C Boston College

18 Oakland Matt Stinchcomb OT Georgia

19 N.Y. Giants Luke Petitgout OT Notre Dame

20 Dallas (from Seattle) Ebenezer Ekuban DE North Carolina

21 Arizona L.J. Shelton OT Eastern Michigan

22 Seattle (from Dallas) Lamar King DE Saginaw Valley

23 Buffalo Antoine Winfield CB Ohio State

24 San Francisco (from Miami) Reggie McGrew DT Florida

25 Green Bay Antwan Edwards S Clemson

26 Jacksonville Fernando Bryant CB Alabama

27 Detroit (from Miami) Aaron Gibson OT Wisconsin

28 New England (from NY Jets) Andy Katzenmoyer LB Ohio State

29 Minnesota Dimitrius UnderWood DE Michigan State

30 Atlanta Patrick Kerney DE Virginia

31 Denver Al Wilson LB Tennessee

 

Just take a look at those 2 drafts..I think 50% looks pretty close

[/dev/null]

26 Buffalo Flowers, Erik OLB Arizona State

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erik flowers, travares tillman, corey moore

 

the bills 2000 draft makes me want to vomit

[JimBob2232]

erik flowers, travares tillman, corey moore doh.gif

 

the bills 2000 draft makes me want to vomit

 

Me too, except a quick glance at the 2nd round shows little talent.

Dennis northcutt, todd pinkston and Jerry Porter are the only real notable names (maybe some OL i havent heard of as well)

 

The 3rd round brought us the likes of erron kenney and dez white. Ruben drogns and Lavernus coles also came from the 3rd.

 

Point is, this draft was VERY VERY weak all around. Sure we had a bad draft, a VERY bad draft, but unless you are baltimore or Seattle (Jamal Lewis and Shaun Alexander respectively), I think you are dissapointd as well.

 

Note: Tom Brady, Tim Rattay and many other solid role guys are late in this draft, but the first 3 rounds produced IMO VERY little talent.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I wonder if there is a stat somewhere of the breakdown of how a team acquired its current players (x % draft, x % UDFA, x % trade, etc.). Love to see it for the Bills if anyone has it or for the league as a whole.

[The Jokeman]

I wonder if there is a stat somewhere of the breakdown of how a team acquired its current players (x % draft, x % UDFA, x % trade, etc.). Love to see it for the Bills if anyone has it or for the league as a whole.

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You can usually find this type of information around draft time or sometimes during the post season.. I know TSN usually has stuff that talks about how many players left on a team from a draft class and how many starting etc. in their annual draft preview guides.

[Steven in MD]

I wonder if there is a stat somewhere of the breakdown of how a team acquired its current players (x % draft, x % UDFA, x % trade, etc.). Love to see it for the Bills if anyone has it or for the league as a whole.

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Just look at the starting 22 (24 if you want to include Punter and Kicker). On offense we have from the draft.

 

Moulds

Reed

Williams

Jennings

Henry

 

On defense:

 

Clements

Shoebel

Kelsay

 

I think it is better to look at how many teams have been able to draft talent that are stars. Does not matter if they draft players who are just depth. Arguably the best team right now, Pittsburgh drafted solid players at QB, WRs, LBs.

 

I think the Bills historically have drafted well, but lately have let some players go due to the salary cap.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I guess the good comparison to do is with the Pats and look at how they built themselves sice they clearly have a winning product and compare that to the Bills and how they have built themselves.

 

I will bow and sing the praises of any others who do this work and perhaps one day I will get to it as well. Off hand, i would say that for the first Pats SB winner free agency acquisitions and specifically cap casualties were the key to building the team which won the SB for the 2001 season. My recollection is that they picked up about 1/3 of their team after June 1st by getting no names like Antowain Smith and through hard work and dumb luck they became a TEAM.

 

Its interesting because I have seen the old saw repeated on TSW that "like the Pats" we must build through the draft" but this view appears to be conventional wisdom which has some but is false as saying it was central as draft picks like first rounder Seymour played important roles but were sidelights to their real story. To the extent the draft was actually important to this team it was the low priority unplanned contributions of 6th round pick Tom Brady rather than their higher profile 1st day picks.

 

The draft seemed to play a bigger role in the 2003 SB winning team as picks like Bethel Johnson played a key role, but still it would be interesting to see a fuller look at this team as the big acqusitions from my view were FAs like Rodney Harrison.

 

I think that as the Bills retool and TD goes along his path the Bills are not focusing building through the draft, but that is probably OK as few winners do in the modern NFL.

[Bill from NYC]

I guess the good comparison to do is with the Pats and look at how they built themselves sice they clearly have a winning product and compare that to the Bills and how they have built themselves.

 

I will bow and sing the praises of any others who do this work and perhaps one day I will get to it as well. Off hand, i would say that for the first Pats SB winner free agency acquisitions and specifically cap casualties were the key to building the team which won the SB for the 2001 season.  My recollection is that they picked up about 1/3 of their team after June 1st by getting no names like Antowain Smith and through hard work and dumb luck they became a TEAM.

 

Its interesting because I have seen the old saw repeated on TSW that "like the Pats" we must build through the draft" but this view appears to be conventional wisdom which has some but is false as saying it was central as draft picks like first rounder Seymour played important roles but were sidelights to their real story.  To the extent the draft was actually important to this team it was the low priority unplanned contributions of 6th round pick Tom Brady rather than their higher profile 1st day picks.

 

The draft seemed to play a bigger role in the 2003 SB winning team as picks like Bethel Johnson played a key role, but still it would be interesting to see a fuller look at this team as the big acqusitions from my view were FAs like Rodney Harrison.

 

I think that as the Bills retool and TD goes along his path the Bills are not focusing building through the draft, but that is probably OK as few winners do in the modern NFL.

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As for free agency, there are only so many very good players out there in any given year (Bryce, TKO, and Tait are examples).

There are others who can fill holes, but are not stars. The rest are very often big names that are past their primes, or undeserving of huge salaries (Peerless and Cowart come to mind).

Because of the above, the draft is still the best way to build a football team, and late round players who stick are truly important.

I am amazed when I see a Brady or T. Davis in the 6th, or Pat Williams as a UDFA, which I will never understand. How about Holocek in round 5? MaGee in the 4th looks like a total steal! These guys come rather cheap, and the cap room, at least for a while, can be used elsewhere.

The redskins are an example of teams that thought free agency was the way to go. It left them losing, old, and approaching cap hell.

Anyway, build through the draft, plug holes with free agents imo.