pre-season review

[lostinmiami]

I rarely post but I follow the Bills obsessively and frequently read posts in the forum. It seems the dominant tone is rose-colored glasses towards the moves of our organization, and abyssmally stupid underappreciation of anyone who leaves. I'd like to offer an objective analysis of our roster. The big picture is, as long as Dick Jauron is coach, we will not be a playoff-winning team. We may improve to 8-8 or, with luck, 9-7. I'd like to see fate hand us better, but there are more questions in lingering problems then there are answers.

 

Offense: overview: fine at skill positions, weak in the o-line, sub-average at TE. Turk Schonert has shown little - the move to the no-huddle may help. I believe Edwards has the intelligence and weapons to pull it off, but will the line keep him upright?

 

QB - to show I'm not a chronic pessamist, I'll say Trent Edwards is often underrated annd has much upside. Intelligent and accurate, if not great arm-strength. He wasn't the same after last year's concussion, but he'll be over that this year. Good touch on the short passes/check downs, but can he consistently find TO/Lee Evans deep? I think the question is, will there be time for those plays to develop. trent isn't our problem, though at best he is Chad Pennington. But Pennington isn't bad. The backups are not worth mentioning here. If we need them, we're already in trouble, though the run game might cover us.

 

RB - this is a fine stable. I feel confident Jackson and Rhodes can carry us during Lynch's 3 game suspension, and when he returns the run game gets the power of beast mode. Great depth here - at times last year Lynch/Jackson were carrying our offense, no thanks to the poor o-line blocking. Rhodes has good experience with the no-huddle.

 

WR - well, this is our team strength. The Lee Evans/TO combo is the best duo we've had since Moulds/Price or Reed/Lofton, and here we have finally solved the "missing second receiver" problem for Evans. Josh Reed was indispensible to our 3rd down package last year - proving his value as a third receiverr. Edwards is not comfortable without him. Having Parrish as a 4th receiver and guys like James Hardy and Jenkins/Johnson vying for the 5th position shows our depth.

 

TE. once again, TE is an invisible position in the Bills offense. Fine will be expected to block on most plays, to offset the weakness of our O-line. Fine and Schouman are at best average TE's. For those expecting Shawn Nelson to add some punch here, you have ridiculous expectations. Nelson will not catch more than 10 passes all season, if he ever sees the field: three reasons - Bills baby their rookies, ignore their TE's, and Nelson really isn't NFL ready even on a team that agressively uses their young players.

 

O line: Everyone who thinks we won't miss a Pro-Bowl left tackle, and we can replace him with a lumbering, 366 lb, average right tackle, line up here to have "I know nothing about Pro-Football" stamped on your forehead. I don't care how much peter's underachieved last year - he had the talent to do well, which Walker admittedly knows he cannot do (and people are claiming he is whining, when he simply recognizes he is being set up for failure). Here is a huge NFL secret: YOU NEED TO BE NIMBLE TO PLAY LEFT TACKLE _TEAMS HAVE THIS CRAZY NEW THING CALLED SPEED RUSHERS!" I weep to think about that. Lets add two rookies to the line, if they even start: I think they will have to, even though our organization prefers to coddle rookies. I like Wood and Levitre - and think they will make an excellent interior line in 3 years. The Dolphis can get a Pro-Bowl season out of a rookie LT because Spano expects it - old "go out there and do your best" jauron won't inspire these guys to step it up. At center we have the undersized Geoff Hangartner, because watching Duke Preston get pushed around by Wolfork, Ferguson and Jenkins wasn't enough - we went and found a guy 20 lbs lighter. Yes, he might be smarter and tougher than preston, and he played for a good running team in carolina, but I still don't think he can handle the BIg AFC east NT's. So the only guy on the line who is above-average is Butler, and he's not a pro-bowl guy. In summary: the whole offense gets buried here, and what we gain in having a TO and a more experienced Edwards, we lose in this motely collection. Hence the same offense we had last year.

 

Defense: still undersized, strong IN Db's but still without a starting caliber SLB or a pass rush, we are doomed to witness the same type of defense as last year - average at best, exhausted by their own inability to get off the field on third and long.

 

DL - if it starts upfront then we are in stall mode. Stroud had a strong season for us , given what he is surrounded with, and Kyle Williams overpreforms, so DT is solid, as well as having a quality backup in Spenser Johnson and the distant hope McCargo may someday get-in-gear. our DE's are the problem - Kelsey and Denney are overpaid at LE - although both play the run decently neither has a strong pass rush: kelsey is especially disappointing. At RE Schobel returns - this MAY change things but I doubt it will - Schobel was in decline before the injury, and the guy relies on speed. For those hoping aaron maybin will come to the rescue, please read what I have to say about Shawn nelson. To wit - the Bills have no plans on starting Maybin or giving him significant time, and if they did, he is also not NFL ready. Next year, maybe. This leaves some room For Chris Ellis, whom nobody talks about, but I bet Ellis gets more sacks than Maybin, and that together that adds to less than 5. Once again, we have little pass rush, and without that, few int's.

 

LB I'd be happy with this unit if we had one more guy, because Posluzny is serviceable/dependable/good vs the run, if not flashy, and K. Mitchell actually made some plays for us last year, on a D that gave him little help. Keith Ellison should not be starting. I dread to watch him shoved downfield by a guard once again, practically propelled into the stands by a guy who outweighs him by 80 lbs. he is JUST TOOO SMALL! Its not rocket science. get a linebacker who goes 245-250 and put him on the strong side.That's why they call it - the strong side. You need beef over there.

 

In terms of depth we've got some average guys here, in DiGiorgio and Thomas, and then a bunch of rookies and converted safeties. If we had anyone decent they'd unseat Ellison. So we have 2 starting linebackers on the Bills, same problem as last season.

 

DB Leodis McKelvin has talent and should take a step forward - providing the one positive for our D. Greer was a good player but we have depth here and won't miss him. At the other corner McGee is above-average, and at nickle there is competition between Florence and Youboty and Corner, which means we've got great depth. At safety if some are disappointed that Donte Whitner, drafted 8th in the first round, is not Troy palamalu or Ed reed, Witner is solid/above average, a good cover man and against the run, just no big plays. If we weren't asking him to be an 8th linebacker to make up for our shrimpitude, perhaps he'd get some. Having Scott able to step into that position helps also. If we were more agressive with rookies we might be able to replace Ko "I'm worth millions" Simpson with Jarius Byrd, because our free-safety should have more int's. I don't think we lack talent in our backfield - I think they play in a passive scheme and have little help from our DL.

 

Coaching: look at a picture of Dick Jauron. look at his sallow, grey, ghoolish face with the nervous smile, and tell me, tell me that that face alone isn't worth at least three losses a season. That is, at some point a player on the field who needs a big defensive stop or an outstanding catch turns to the sideline and looks, just looks at Dick jauron, and a little of his soul just dies.

 

This is why we cannot win.

 

Don't tell me coaches don't matter. You might as well tell me generals don't matter and armies should just manage themselves. Don't tell me pro players are grown men and don't need motivation. Pro Football players are incredibly gifted athletes with the morals and intelligence of ambulatory chunks of hamburger, who play a children's game for more money than they deserve and who are largely protected by coaches, managers, administrators, agents, sycophantic fans and family from the consequences of real life until they can no longer make millions: most are large children. they need direction. This is why Bill Bellicheck wins with INFERIOR TALENT. He tames them: he is the Simon Legree of the NFL. Peter King just said Dick Jauron is the nicest coach in the NFL. We are doomed. I know Marv was a nice guy but he was even smarter than Jauron and he was a tough old vet along with the Professorial credits. And marv was bested by Jimmy Johnson, a guy who plays with farm animals. No nice coaches!!!!!

 

So, maybe TO and our offense explodes; maybe Schobel has 8-10 sacks and that helps Stroud a bit and leodis gets 5 plus int's and we do go deep into the playoffs

 

but its more likely

 

we see Dick jauron's sad grey face at press conferences telling us everyone's doing their best and each week they get better, as if its all just practice or if its a school for slow kids where everyone gets the same medal, first or last, despite that they are being paid millions. And we go 7-9 once again.

[Lothar]

Hey Lost,

 

Nice writeup - I appreciate you taking the time to do this in a cogent fashion and wanted to make sure that informed well written summaries like yours don't get lost in the ether. I think most people agree with your assessment. To me, it comes down to the performance of the offensive tackles. I actually think the interior will hold up fine and worst case, we'd move Butler back to a guard spot. But I'm just waiting to hear some good news from the wings - if Walker and Butler aren't at least adequate (and I think Langston's actually a decent right tackle), this season's on the brink a lot quicker than we thought. I'm not sure if any of the wounded FAs are the right answer but hearing how Denney and Kelsay!? are doing well makes me wonder if our guys can survive against quality DEs and blitzing LBs.

 

Also, some folks on here keep calling for Chambers to come in at LT. IIRC he only replaced Walker at RT and Walker switched over to the left side when Peters was unavailable. I think maybe our coaches were expecting Bell to take the next step but it sounds like he's a year away. If this is our achilles heel come the regular season, I will once again be disappointed at the way our front office went about their business.

 

Last year at this time I was guardedly optimistic. I'm pretty ambivalent right now because I don't expect much more than an 8-8 campaign. Cohesion by itself does not equal quality.

[nucci]

How can you give a review when the pre-season has not started? Been in camp less than 2 weeks.

[DrFishfinder]

I wouldn't classify this as an "objective analysis" when using words like, "coddle, lumbering, motley and shrimpitude". It's "an opinion" and you are entitled to it.

 

But objective, it ain't.

[Lothar]

How can you give a review when the pre-season has not started? Been in camp less than 2 weeks.

 

well, I read it as an offseason review or preseason preview - cut the guy some slack

[BillsVet]

O line: Everyone who thinks we won't miss a Pro-Bowl left tackle, and we can replace him with a lumbering, 366 lb, average right tackle, line up here to have "I know nothing about Pro-Football" stamped on your forehead. I don't care how much peter's underachieved last year - he had the talent to do well, which Walker admittedly knows he cannot do (and people are claiming he is whining, when he simply recognizes he is being set up for failure). Here is a huge NFL secret: YOU NEED TO BE NIMBLE TO PLAY LEFT TACKLE _TEAMS HAVE THIS CRAZY NEW THING CALLED SPEED RUSHERS!" I weep to think about that. Lets add two rookies to the line, if they even start: I think they will have to, even though our organization prefers to coddle rookies. I like Wood and Levitre - and think they will make an excellent interior line in 3 years. The Dolphis can get a Pro-Bowl season out of a rookie LT because Spano expects it - old "go out there and do your best" jauron won't inspire these guys to step it up. At center we have the undersized Geoff Hangartner, because watching Duke Preston get pushed around by Wolfork, Ferguson and Jenkins wasn't enough - we went and found a guy 20 lbs lighter. Yes, he might be smarter and tougher than preston, and he played for a good running team in carolina, but I still don't think he can handle the BIg AFC east NT's. So the only guy on the line who is above-average is Butler, and he's not a pro-bowl guy. In summary: the whole offense gets buried here, and what we gain in having a TO and a more experienced Edwards, we lose in this motely collection. Hence the same offense we had last year.

 

Two items, coaching and the OL, will determine the fate of this season. None of the skill players on offense mean anything without that OL pass or run blocking. Agree on the move of LW to LT. He's not physically gifted with the foot speed and agility to handle edge rushers, and there are several of them lining up across him. Hangartner did say at his intro that he plays at around 315, so I'll hold out hope that he can handle those big 3-4 NT's.

 

On DJ: who can forget the MNF losses, the 2-8 finish and still believe he's capable of stepping up his coaching? I don't, but you'll be attacked. It was the same way last season, and the optimists were not rewarded for their optimsim on the HC.

 

Only time will tell.

[kenny3000]

Hi Lost,

 

There were a lot of good points in your post, but mostly I didn't agree with your analysis. There were a lot of generalizations you used and some things you cannot even come close to proving in regards to Dick Jauron. I know I shouldn't respond but oh well. I did come up with a few bets while reading that I would love to take with you:

 

1. Nelson will not catch more than 10 passes all season, if he ever sees the field: three reasons - Bills baby their rookies, ignore their TE's, and Nelson really isn't NFL ready even on a team that agressively uses their young players.

 

2. I bet Ellis gets more sacks than Maybin, and that together that adds to less than 5.

 

3. Its more likely we see Dick jauron's sad grey face at press conferences telling us everyone's doing their best and each week they get better, as if its all just practice or if its a school for slow kids where everyone gets the same medal, first or last, despite that they are being paid millions. And we go 7-9 once again.

 

Bet #1: Shawn Nelson must catch 11 or more passes in the 2009/2010 season.

Bet #2: Aaron Maybin must have more sacks than Chris Ellis in 2009/2010 season.

Bet #3: Chris Ellis and Aaron Maybin combined sack total for 2009/2010 season must be greater than 5.

Bet #4: Buffalo Bills must have 8 wins or more in the 2009/2010 season.

 

I'll bet that all 4 bets listed above happen and do $20 per bet. I'll stand by and pay any and all of them if I lose. You willing to stand by your predictions?

 

Kenny

[lostinmiami]

Hi Lost,

 

There were a lot of good points in your post, but mostly I didn't agree with your analysis. There were a lot of generalizations you used and some things you cannot even come close to proving in regards to Dick Jauron. I know I shouldn't respond but oh well. I did come up with a few bets while reading that I would love to take with you:

 

1. Nelson will not catch more than 10 passes all season, if he ever sees the field: three reasons - Bills baby their rookies, ignore their TE's, and Nelson really isn't NFL ready even on a team that agressively uses their young players.

 

2. I bet Ellis gets more sacks than Maybin, and that together that adds to less than 5.

 

3. Its more likely we see Dick jauron's sad grey face at press conferences telling us everyone's doing their best and each week they get better, as if its all just practice or if its a school for slow kids where everyone gets the same medal, first or last, despite that they are being paid millions. And we go 7-9 once again.

 

Bet #1: Shawn Nelson must catch 11 or more passes in the 2009/2010 season.

Bet #2: Aaron Maybin must have more sacks than Chris Ellis in 2009/2010 season.

Bet #3: Chris Ellis and Aaron Maybin combined sack total for 2009/2010 season must be greater than 5.

Bet #4: Buffalo Bills must have 8 wins or more in the 2009/2010 season.

 

I'll bet that all 4 bets listed above happen and do $20 per bet. I'll stand by and pay any and all of them if I lose. You willing to stand by your predictions?

 

Kenny

 

I'm feeling very good about 4, pretty good about 1. We might draw because Maybin did look good in the preseason - and I know why. He's been untouched by our coaching staff. That's right - now raw, uncoached guys who don't come to our camp are better than guys who practice, because they have not been Jauronofied. Soon enough, Jauron will get to maybin:

"Hey aaron, can I talk with you?"

"Uh, sure skeletor"

"I'm your coach, not a cartoon character"

"oops, sorry coach. I thought the dead had a rizen to speak to me. Naw, its cool. What's up?"

"Well in practice I saw you - do that move really fast and sack the QB and I'm worried - that might excite people. That seems like winning."

"Yeah coach."

"Well, you know, we like to keep things sedate here. And simple. I've got one move for Defensive ends. See mr Shobel, Kelsey and Denny - its take an outside pass rush and get shoved about 10 feet behind the quaterback. Can you practice that?"

"Well coach, I don't think"

Jauron raises the ghoulish, gray hand of doom. "Mr. Wislson lives forever because of our pact with Charon. You shall obey"

"Sure coach, you givin me the heebie-jeebies with that spooky talk. I'll just do what you say."

"Thanks. gotta go find a backup tackle who will play for a bucket of wings and a case of Genny - Mr. Wilson's on a budget, you know.