Spending and winnning in the NFL

[BillsVet]

From Jason LaCanfora via Tim Graham

 

LaCanfora-NFL.com

 

 

I don't think this is news to anyone. Buffalo spent less in the previous five season than all but five teams in the NFL. Only Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Green Bay, and Kansas City spent less during that span. Obviously, spending does not equal winning, and of those five teams Buffalo out-spent, TB, JAC, and GB, have gone to the playoffs and had some success.

 

If these teams can spend less and still make the playoffs, what separates Buffalo from those teams? IMO, it's the front office, which features individuals who are nowhere near good enough to find talent and a coaching staff which is bargain basement.

 

It's also noteworthy that teams like SD and DEN spent relatively the same amount as Buffalo in this stretch.

[The Dean]

A worthless analysis as a rule, and totally worthless without the salaries of the coaches, scouts, facilities, etc, included.

 

There is one HUGE difference between winning teams and the Bills and it isn't the FO's player evaluation. It's the HC, stupid.

[Steely Dan]

A worthless analysis as a rule, and totally worthless without the salaries of the coaches, scouts, facilities, etc, included.

 

There is one HUGE difference between winning teams and the Bills and it isn't the FO's player evaluation. It's the HC, stupid.

 

Hopefully he'll prove that wrong this season, hopefully. R2 has been known to be wrong from time to time.

[Fingon]

i didn't know spending $3 million less per year made you frugal.

[NewHampshireBillsFan]

From Jason LaCanfora via Tim Graham

 

LaCanfora-NFL.com

 

 

I don't think this is news to anyone. Buffalo spent less in the previous five season than all but five teams in the NFL. Only Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Green Bay, and Kansas City spent less during that span. Obviously, spending does not equal winning, and of those five teams Buffalo out-spent, TB, JAC, and GB, have gone to the playoffs and had some success.

 

If these teams can spend less and still make the playoffs, what separates Buffalo from those teams? IMO, it's the front office, which features individuals who are nowhere near good enough to find talent and a coaching staff which is bargain basement.

 

It's also noteworthy that teams like SD and DEN spent relatively the same amount as Buffalo in this stretch.

 

Face it, even when money was not a major issue (60's to 80's), the Bills have struggled to win. Part of it is that good coaches and GM's were either forced out or wanted out including Saban twice (who admittedly had issues of his own), Knox, Levy, Polian, and Butler. Wilson has always been somewhat irascible and some of his financial people and family members were also considered annoying by the quality football people we have been fortunate to have in our history.

[BillsVet]

A worthless analysis as a rule, and totally worthless without the salaries of the coaches, scouts, facilities, etc, included.

 

There is one HUGE difference between winning teams and the Bills and it isn't the FO's player evaluation. It's the HC, stupid.

 

Who hires the HC?

[The Dean]

Who hires the HC?

 

 

Ralph

[GR8PRKN]

i didn't know spending $3 million less per year made you frugal.

 

 

 

Cash to the cap,,,,,, What ever that meant

[NewHampshireBillsFan]

A worthless analysis as a rule, and totally worthless without the salaries of the coaches, scouts, facilities, etc, included.

 

There is one HUGE difference between winning teams and the Bills and it isn't the FO's player evaluation. It's the HC, stupid.

 

A more useful stat might be wins per $ paid for the HC or wins per $ paid to the whole coaching staff. But I guess that would prove the wrong point. Say a coach makes $6 million per year and gets 12 wins. That is $500,000 per win while Jauron makes $2 million and gets 7 wins so that is only $286K per win. Jauron is cheaper for each win. I think the stat should be playoff wins per $ paid to the coach.

[BillsVet]

Ralph

 

Is he not part of the front office as team president? He is also happens to be the biggest vote among the "Inner Circle" which consists of Littman, Brandon, and Modrak.

 

BTW, I'll refrain from dropping a stupid reference.

[silvermike]

The Bills problem isn't that $3M. It's the players they spend their money on. Robert Royal made about $3M/season as a Bill, right? We need better players making $^M, or $7M per season than the Dockerys and Kelsays we've shown those bucks to, not upgrading postitions marginally.

[The Dean]

Is he not part of the front office as team president? He is also happens to be the biggest vote among the "Inner Circle" which consists of Littman, Brandon, and Modrak.

 

BTW, I'll refrain from dropping a stupid reference.

 

The "stupid" reference was a joke, and a parody of the old political saying "it's the economy stupid" and not a shot at you. Really.

 

I think in the case of Jauron, Marv was instrumental in his getting the nod. Fine. While he was not my selection, I didn't think it was a huge mistake at the time, given the Bills needed to right the ship. I think Dick was sufficient for that purpose, but did little else. I'm not entirely convinced that DJ would still be the HC if Marv was still GM, but we will never know.

 

Now that's a big mistake by the FO...one of the biggest. But in your posts, you seem to dump on the players, the coach, the FO and Ralph. I have said it in the past, and I will repeat it here: To read your posts you would think the Bills were 0-16 and never came close to winning a game. Everything and everyone association with the team sucks.

 

That just isn't the case. With some ballsy and intelligent coaching, the team would have made the playoffs last year, IMO. This year's group has even more talent, by my estimation.

 

I can only hope that Dick is scared enough of losing his job to let the chain out a bit, and that Turk has learned some lessons in his first season as OC. This team just might make the playoffs despite Jauron.

 

Replacing the management team with a "strong GM" is not going to be fruitful at this point in time, IMO. Currently there are precious few strong managers in the game, and fewer who are available. None of them is likely to come to Buffalo, and it is even less likely a willing one will be paid what he requires and given the freedom they would need. (Note: the last one of those strong GMs the Bills had ended up running the team into the ground. The team today is better by far than the team TD left.)

 

This team's best chance to succeed would have been to replace the HC. But, other than that, I think the FO has done a pretty decent job. Best in the NFL? No, but FAR FAR better than the worst. The drafts and FA acquisitions have been very good-to-excellent since TD departed. If would be nice to see the talent freed to play their best, instead of being held back and thwarted at every step.

[BillsVet]

The "stupid" reference was a joke, and a parody of the old political saying "it's the economy stupid" and not a shot at you. Really.

 

I think in the case of Jauron, Marv was instrumental in his getting the nod. Fine. While he was not my selection, I didn't think it was a huge mistake at the time, given the Bills needed to right the ship. I think Dick was sufficient for that purpose, but did little else. I'm not entirely convinced that DJ would still be the HC if Marv was still GM, but we will never know.

 

Now that's a big mistake by the FO...one of the biggest. But in your posts, you seem to dump on the players, the coach, the FO and Ralph. I have said it in the past, and I will repeat it here: To read your posts you would think the Bills were 0-16 and never came close to winning a game. Everything and everyone association with the team sucks.

 

That just isn't the case. With some ballsy and intelligent coaching, the team would have made the playoffs last year, IMO. This year's group has even more talent, by my estimation.

 

I can only hope that Dick is scared enough of losing his job to let the chain out a bit, and that Turk has learned some lessons in his first season as OC. This team just might make the playoffs despite Jauron.

 

Replacing the management team with a "strong GM" is not going to be fruitful at this point in time, IMO. Currently there are precious few strong managers in the game, and fewer who are available. None of them is likely to come to Buffalo, and it is even less likely a willing one will be paid what he requires and given the freedom they would need. (Note: the last one of those strong GMs the Bills had ended up running the team into the ground. The team today is better by far than the team TD left.)

 

This team's best chance to succeed would have been to replace the HC. But, other than that, I think the FO has done a pretty decent job. Best in the NFL? No, but FAR FAR better than the worst. The drafts and FA acquisitions have been very good-to-excellent since TD departed. If would be nice to see the talent freed to play their best, instead of being held back and thwarted at every step.

 

Got it on the reference. Thank Bill. No offense taken.

 

My attitude on this team is dire because they've proven nothing in nearly an entire decade. I'm sorry, but my feelings from the final 10 games of 08 have carried over into 09. Hope ain't enough for me at this point, and there's plenty of questions heading into year 4 of a rebuild.

 

Teams need talent to win, and I'm seeing a team with plenty at the skill positions, but issues on the OL and DL, specifically a lack of a pass rush in the latter. If a team has so many questions after three complete seasons of rebuilding, did they really rebuild?

 

The Buffalo Bills have not had a legitimate GM throughout the course of this rebuild, and we're seeing the results. The franchise was torn down in the wake of Donahoe, when we've seen clubs like Miami and Atlanta only get rid of veterans when there's a replacement. The point to all of this is a structure and strategy which is completely haphazard and uncoordinated. I'm perfectly fine with the TO signing, but when your big UFA acquisition is a former backup C, I'm not thrilled. After all, did anyone at OBD plan on picking up TO until the moment he was released?

 

As to the HC, rational Bills fans know DJ isn't going to improve, in this his 9th complete season as a HC and yet the front office (RW) chose to retain him. The best teams in the league, save NE, have a strong personality at the GM position: NYG, SD, PIT, MIA, BAL, IND, GB, ATL, et al. The consensus method is complete folly, and when compromise is a priority among proven losers like DJ, the results are catastrophic. The best example is taking a small DB over lineman in their first draft. And that's not hindsight, it's analysis which was delivered on draft day 06.

 

If a team cannot win after rebuilding for three years, it's an indication that it's more than a HC issue. It's a culture (of decision makers) which must be changed. I cannot imagine what would happen if this season doesn't live up to the hype we're starting to see. It could make the 2005 season seem tame.

[DazedandConfused]

A worthless analysis as a rule, and totally worthless without the salaries of the coaches, scouts, facilities, etc, included.

 

There is one HUGE difference between winning teams and the Bills and it isn't the FO's player evaluation. It's the HC, stupid.

Very good teams have won despite their HC having limitations (the great Cowboys team winning with that college HC level pro HC whose name I forget at this late hour is the Cadillac example, but several other cases of at least questionable HCs who win exist. Add into this that Jauron has already put up a record once which won him the Coach pf the Year popularity contest and while the evidence does point to the quality of the HC making some difference, the evidence points away from the word HUGE since HC ability is important though not essential.

 

My sense is that the totality of the NFL experience is one which shows a man can be a bad HC one place (Marv in KC) and be an HOF level HC in another circumstance.

 

I think the posts which point to one thing the HC choice and the FO choices have in common being RALPH is the key.

 

Deserved kudos to him for keeping the Bills in Buffalo, but one is ignoring reality if you heap so much blame on Jauron that one forgets that fish rot first from the head then down.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Agree with Dazed.

 

It all starts at the top. Ralph bears "ultimate responsibility." He's the one who has alienated some of the icons of this organization through his pettiness (Saban, Cookie Gilchrist, Polian and Butler for awhile before burying the hatchet (probably Marv had something to do with these reconciliations).

 

He's also stuck with people like Harvey Johnson and Stew Barber when it was clearly not in the organization's best interest.

 

His most trusted confidant is the Treasurer, Jeff Littman.

 

I've always and will continue to maintain that Ralph Wilson is the reason we've had much less than average success over the 50 years of this franchise. I'm grateful for Ralph bringing the team here and keeping it here but otherwise he's been a subpar owner.

 

When you blame Jauron, you're "shooting the messenger." Jauron is only one symptom of a larger illness.

[Mr. WEO]

Agree with Dazed.

 

It all starts at the top. Ralph bears "ultimate responsibility." He's the one who has alienated some of the icons of this organization through his pettiness (Saban, Cookie Gilchrist, Polian and Butler for awhile before burying the hatchet (probably Marv had something to do with these reconciliations).

 

He's also stuck with people like Harvey Johnson and Stew Barber when it was clearly not in the organization's best interest.

 

His most trusted confidant is the Treasurer, Jeff Littman.

 

I've always and will continue to maintain that Ralph Wilson is the reason we've had much less than average success over the 50 years of this franchise. I'm grateful for Ralph bringing the team here and keeping it here but otherwise he's been a subpar owner.

 

When you blame Jauron, you're "shooting the messenger." Jauron is only one symptom of a larger illness.

 

No doubt!

 

And counting in coaching and scout salaries and facilities will change nothing--unless, you somehow believe that we splurge in these areas.

[LGB]

No doubt!

 

And counting in coaching and scout salaries and facilities will change nothing--unless, you somehow believe that we splurge in these areas.

Does anyone really think RW has done everything that could be done to secure a playoff birth and possible run?!? First and foremost it appears that the priority is to take care of tickets sales for what the area market can produce. Why else would RW hire a marketing guy instead of a football guy at GM? Has RW recently gone out and hired a coach with a proven track record in the NFL? Sure, we are all grateful that the Bills play in Orchard Park and the fans have done their part and supported the Bills through thick and thin (mostly thin as of late) - but can anyone say the same for OBD when it comes to football decisions?

[TheLynchTrain]

This is what I don't understand...

 

Here's the raw numbers for total amount spent:

 

 

http://blogs.nfl.com/2009/06/26/moneyball-nfl-style/

 

For some reason, he has the Bills at 27 when they've spent more than the 5 teams in front of them. Anybody understand this? Typo? There aren't any other instances in his article where he has teams ahead of them with more money. Unless its supposed to be 83 instead of 93.

 

I think this is a big deal b/c 21 out of 32 isn't half bad, since we have the second smallest market in the league. Even at 27, we're still outspending 4 teams with bigger markets.

 

 

 

21. Bears $495.57

22. Falcons $493.07

23. Bengals $491.06

24. 49ers $486.40

25. Chargers $485.46

26. Broncos $485.40

27. Bills $493.71

[silvermike]

This is what I don't understand...

 

Here's the raw numbers for total amount spent:

 

 

http://blogs.nfl.com/2009/06/26/moneyball-nfl-style/

 

For some reason, he has the Bills at 27 when they've spent more than the 5 teams in front of them. Anybody understand this? Typo? There aren't any other instances in his article where he has teams ahead of them with more money. Unless its supposed to be 83 instead of 93.

 

I think this is a big deal b/c 21 out of 32 isn't half bad, since we have the second smallest market in the league. Even at 27, we're still outspending 4 teams with bigger markets.

 

 

 

21. Bears $495.57

22. Falcons $493.07

23. Bengals $491.06

24. 49ers $486.40

25. Chargers $485.46

26. Broncos $485.40

27. Bills $493.71

 

My hunch is that there's a typo there, and the Bills' true number is $483.71M. That would lock us in at #27.

[The Dean]

Very good teams have won despite their HC having limitations (the great Cowboys team winning with that college HC level pro HC whose name I forget at this late hour is the Cadillac example, but several other cases of at least questionable HCs who win exist. Add into this that Jauron has already put up a record once which won him the Coach pf the Year popularity contest and while the evidence does point to the quality of the HC making some difference, the evidence points away from the word HUGE since HC ability is important though not essential.

 

My sense is that the totality of the NFL experience is one which shows a man can be a bad HC one place (Marv in KC) and be an HOF level HC in another circumstance.

 

 

It is true that overwhelmingly good talent can overcome bad coaching, at least for a time. It is also true that a HC shouldn't necessarily be branded by a bad experience and outcome. But over time, bad coaching can almost always thwart good talent. And a coach who make repeated mistakes, and misuses his talent, with several teams isn't likely to be resurrected into a great coach.

 

Barry Switzer is the coach you were thinking of, and I admit I would use him as an example if I were taking your position. But in reality, Switzer was actually a fine front-running coach. He wasn't a bad coach for a team with superior talent, as he stayed out of their way. When he had superior talent in the NFL and in College, he won. I don't think he's the kind of coach that can coach a decent team up another level, though. Still, he had only one losing season in the NFL.

 

As for Jauron, he had one terrific season with the Bears. Of course that team had an extraordinary defense. I give DJ some credit for that defense being so good. Even when the team started losing (after that one season) he usually maintained a quality defense. It was the offense of those teams that struggled. When Dick was hired, I hoped that experience would change here, and he would let the OC run the offense. Perhaps he had, but when a horrible offensive decision has been made (or not made), Dick has always taken responsibility. Maybe he is just being a standup guy (I would never argue that Dick isn't a good man...just a bad gameday decision maker). Either way it's his responsibility.

 

 

 

I think the posts which point to one thing the HC choice and the FO choices have in common being RALPH is the key.

 

Deserved kudos to him for keeping the Bills in Buffalo, but one is ignoring reality if you heap so much blame on Jauron that one forgets that fish rot first from the head then down.

 

Agree with Dazed.

 

It all starts at the top. Ralph bears "ultimate responsibility." He's the one who has alienated some of the icons of this organization through his pettiness (Saban, Cookie Gilchrist, Polian and Butler for awhile before burying the hatchet (probably Marv had something to do with these reconciliations).

 

He's also stuck with people like Harvey Johnson and Stew Barber when it was clearly not in the organization's best interest.

 

His most trusted confidant is the Treasurer, Jeff Littman.

 

I've always and will continue to maintain that Ralph Wilson is the reason we've had much less than average success over the 50 years of this franchise. I'm grateful for Ralph bringing the team here and keeping it here but otherwise he's been a subpar owner.

 

When you blame Jauron, you're "shooting the messenger." Jauron is only one symptom of a larger illness.

 

 

Is Ralph ultimately to blame? Of course. I would never disagree that he is the person in charge, and needs to accept the ultimate responsibility. He's the person who hired DJ and decided to keep him as HC, despite a spectacularly bad year at the helm. But Ralph can't really be removed, and his change brings so many possible negatives, it could be a cure that ends up killing the patient. If/when Ralph sells the team, I will welcome an owner more determined to do whatever it takes to win, provided that owner keeps the team in Buffalo/WNY But having the team in the area is the priority, IMO. As has been shown, even a team with questionable owner can win, if he gets lucky on his HC and FO.

 

A simplistic overview of the organization is: Owner, FO, Coaches, Players. (Yes, this is simplistic, as noted. We regularly get into the details of these, but this will do for this particular analysis.):

 

Owner: Maybe the ultimate problem, but this is the hardest part of the organization to change. Furthermore, in the case of the Bills, changing this particular part could mean their ultimate demise. Ralph isn't actively hurting the team, IMO. He doesn't call the plays, and the temperament and style of the team on the field is not a reflection of Ralph's personality or football philosophy (that is, he doesn't impose a football philosophy on his coaches). But he is slow to make changes, tight with a buck (most of the time) and isn't the kind of guy that will throw caution to the wind and allow the FO to make one huge acquisition after another (for example).

 

FO (includes scouting): Probably not among the league's strongest, but nowhere near the weakest. This unit has improved the quality of the roster, every year, since TD left. The difference between what they inherited and what they have now is impressive, given the way the Ralph allows them to operate. Not every decision they make is good, but they have generally stayed away from terrible moves. I'd give the group a solid B or B+. When it comes to the team's issues, I'd say the FO is not one that needs to be addressed, at this time. They can always improve scouting, I'd like to see them re-sign their best players before their contract year arrives...and they are starting to do that now. Room for improvement for sure, but not the unit to bash when it comes to the Bills current problems.

 

Coaching (includes HC): What we have seen in the last few years, is a unit that can put a reasonable, competitive product on the field, and no more. Not the worst coaches the Bills have ever had, but nowhere near as good as they need to be. They play too passively (on both sides of the ball), mismanage the clock, make poor gameday decisions and generally seem to avoid the things they can do successfully (particularly on offense). IMO gameday coaching mistakes probably cost the Bills 2-3 games, last year. This is the area where change is easy to make, and the outcome is most immediate on the field. The fish rots from the had down. When that fish represents the organization, the head is Ralph. When that fish represents the team on the field, Dick is the head, at least until Ralph gets on the sidelines and takes over.

 

Players: Not yet ready to compete for the SB, but playoff quality to be sure. Good-to-exceptional depth in several key areas. The lines remain a question mark, but have been improved in the past couple of years. The impact of the Peters departure has yet to be seen, as has that of the rookie acquisitions. While the team lacks a proven top QB, Edwards is smart and considered by many to be capable...when he stays on the field. This is a team that should make the playoffs with reasonable coaching. A great coach might get them a win or two in the playoffs. Poor coaching yields a 7-9 record.

 

I'd understand if you disagree with my analysis. But (and this goes to the point of my original post in this thread) bashing every one of these areas, every time you get a chance, makes little sense. The team is not horrible in all areas. And, in my view, BillsVet represents the kind of frustrated fan that just bashes every aspect of the team because they are losing. Given his posts, I think he is far smarter than that, and might want to take a more careful/analytical approach than "if they are losing, everything is bad" (my words, not his). That is neither realistic given their record, nor does it ever get to the problems that are addressable without blowing up the team. I also think he, and many other fans, are frustrated with the FO because they don't know exactly where to point the finger of blame when they perceive a mistake has been made...so they point the finger at everyone. Understandable as a visceral reaction, but hardly useful in analysis.

 

Just my 7 cents.