Marv's Neighbor Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 I'll ask the stupid question. If you're flying in the middle of the Atlantic and you see a thunderstorm ahead on your instrumentation why do you fly through it? It's likely an Ego thing. He was so experienced, and, in his mind had seen much worse before, that he thought he could pick his way through the line. Neither of the two co-pilots would dare question him! The other situation could have been fuel. If you're hundreds of miles from land and are facing a Equatorial storm line that's so broad that you can't easily divert around it, and you only have so much fuel, you take a good look at the weather radar and try to sneak thru between the cells. In this day, nobody is carrying any extra fuel, so your options get more limited. He could likely have flown around the weather and had to stop in Tenerife for fuel but that would have delayed his Paris arrival by +/-2 hours. He took a chance and it seems that it was a bad decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 It's likely an Ego thing. He was so experienced, and, in his mind had seen much worse before, that he thought he could pick his way through the line. Neither of the two co-pilots would dare question him! The other situation could have been fuel. If you're hundreds of miles from land and are facing a Equatorial storm line that's so broad that you can't easily divert around it, and you only have so much fuel, you take a good look at the weather radar and try to sneak thru between the cells. In this day, nobody is carrying any extra fuel, so your options get more limited. He could likely have flown around the weather and had to stop in Tenerife for fuel but that would have delayed his Paris arrival by +/-2 hours. He took a chance and it seems that it was a bad decision. I'll admit right up front that I know absolutely nothing about flying or weather conditions. How high up are these storms anyway? Is going over them an option? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dib Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 The Brazilian Air Force has found debris along the flight path of the lost Air France Air Bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 I'll admit right up front that I know absolutely nothing about flying or weather conditions. How high up are these storms anyway? Is going over them an option? Think I heard today today that storms in this region, which is well known to be off high turbulance, can be up to 50,000 feet. I like you do not know alot about flying, but think most planes fly at 35 to 40K ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim in Anchorage Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 I'll admit right up front that I know absolutely nothing about flying or weather conditions. How high up are these storms anyway? Is going over them an option? T storm tops can hit 50,000 feet. Service ceiling on any jet is going to be at most 40,000. They need air to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Think I heard today today that storms in this region, which is well known to be off high turbulance, can be up to 50,000 feet. I like you do not know alot about flying, but think most planes fly at 35 to 40K ??? T storm tops can hit 50,000 feet. Service ceiling on any jet is going to be at most 40,000. They need air to run. Well that answers my question perfectly. Thanks. The unavoidable storm must be one hell of an uncomfortable sight, especially for any passengers who have never seen anything like that. The furthest I've ever flown is Texas, so I have no clue what a storm like this would feel like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Britbillsfan Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Saw a nice graphic of the weather system/storm, and it's huge. It looks like the plane may have changed course to try to avoid the worst of it. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8079122.stm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 This is terrible news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBill Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Tough situation for the familes - it will be interesting (and sad0 to see if the crash experts are able to figure out what happened. As a frequent flier I hate to hear about this stuff but statistics still say the most dangerous part of flying is the drive to and from the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boom Jam Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 I didn't read this, but wanted to add it to your discussion. It was sent to me by my uncle who is a retired airline pilot. Air France Flight 447: A detailed meteorological analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Britbillsfan Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 Tough situation for the familes - it will be interesting (and sad0 to see if the crash experts are able to figure out what happened. As a frequent flier I hate to hear about this stuff but statistics still say the most dangerous part of flying is the drive to and from the airport. Well, depends on the statistics you use. The ones favoured by airlines are measured by fatal accidents by distance, rather than accidents by number of trips. The accidents per trip tips the balance heavily in favour of the drive to the airport... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted June 3, 2009 Author Share Posted June 3, 2009 I didn't read this, but wanted to add it to your discussion. It was sent to me by my uncle who is a retired airline pilot. Air France Flight 447: A detailed meteorological analysis Interesting analysis and comments -- many from commercial pilots. Worth a read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wacka Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 I have had two experience with t-storms while flying. One time coming into DC, we had a T-storm directly ahead. Took us 10 minutes to go around it. Flying from SF to Atlanta once, we went through a squall line over Alabama or Mississippi. There was lightning around but it didn't hit the plane. It was the worst turbulence I have felt. I was white knuckling it. The guy next to me flew a lot more and kept reading his book. When we landed in Atlanta, I saw on the CNN weather that there were tornadoes in that line of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fingon Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 Terrorism? Air France bomb threats: http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cache:rogFh...mp;client=opera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUFFALOTONE Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 Terrorism? Air France bomb threats: http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cache:rogFh...mp;client=opera Ding Ding Ding Hate to say this folks but this wreeeks of terrorism. There is no way that plane just falls out of the air without an ounce of communication. France like many other countries has had a military presence in Afghanistan for some time now. They have been threatened repeatedly to withdraw troops or else. There was a bomb threat called into a bathroom inside the business disctrict that turned out to be a credible threat no one was hurt but the warning was next time it will go off without notice. My guess and this is only a guess is that Brazils airport security is more relaxed than Frances. Easier to get a device on the plane. So sad. f true with the amount of fuel on board those poor people probably didnt feel a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted June 3, 2009 Author Share Posted June 3, 2009 Ding Ding Ding Hate to say this folks but this wreeeks of terrorism. There is no way that plane just falls out of the air without an ounce of communication. I've been puzzled about why there has been so little mention of this possibility. Are the gubmints all trying to gets us to forget that risk still exists? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 I've been puzzled about why there has been so little mention of this possibility. Are the gubmints all trying to gets us to forget that risk still exists? Wouldn't someone have claimed it by now? There's little sense in an attack if no one knows where it came from. And why would they be all that interested in a Brazil-France flight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkady Renko Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 In the CNN article posted last night, the wife of one of the passengers said that when she called her husband's cell phone it rang and rang before going to voice mail. How could that happen if the phone is in the ocean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 I've been hearing that a severe updraft could have been the cause. As was mentioned earlier, they had no way of flying above the storm, so its kind of the "mouse-in-a-maze" trick to pick the best way through the storm. The updraft could have come from anywhere and easily flipped the plane or caused severe damage. With reagrds to the black box, i doubt they'll ever find it. Not only is it at a depth of anywhere from 7,000 to 14,000 feet, they managed to crash pretty much on top of the mid-atlantic ridge. The topography of the ocean floor at the crash site resembles a mountain range. Toss in the fact that the floor is constantly shifting/moving with the new crust constantly forming, it'll be a stroke of pure luck to find the black box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkady Renko Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 Well, depends on the statistics you use. The ones favoured by airlines are measured by fatal accidents by distance, rather than accidents by number of trips. The accidents per trip tips the balance heavily in favour of the drive to the airport... I had heard that based on deaths per miles traveled, the risk is about equal for driving versus flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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