Air France plane

[erynthered]

I've been hearing that a severe updraft could have been the cause. As was mentioned earlier, they had no way of flying above the storm, so its kind of the "mouse-in-a-maze" trick to pick the best way through the storm. The updraft could have come from anywhere and easily flipped the plane or caused severe damage.

 

With reagrds to the black box, i doubt they'll ever find it. Not only is it at a depth of anywhere from 7,000 to 14,000 feet, they managed to crash pretty much on top of the mid-atlantic ridge. The topography of the ocean floor at the crash site resembles a mountain range. Toss in the fact that the floor is constantly shifting/moving with the new crust constantly forming, it'll be a stroke of pure luck to find the black box.

 

 

I was just going to post that. Plus the box will stop sending out its signal in 31 days.

 

Maybe after that, somebody will claim responsibility?

[Guest dog14787]

Ding Ding Ding

 

Hate to say this folks but this wreeeks of terrorism. There is no way that plane just falls out of the air without an ounce of communication.

 

France like many other countries has had a military presence in Afghanistan for some time now. They have been threatened repeatedly to withdraw troops or else. There was a bomb threat called into a bathroom inside the business disctrict that turned out to be a credible threat no one was hurt but the warning was next time it will go off without notice. My guess and this is only a guess is that Brazils airport security is more relaxed than Frances. Easier to get a device on the plane. So sad. f true with the amount of fuel on board those poor people probably didnt feel a thing.

 

 

The plane was heading into 100 mph winds and even though they may have tried to dodge some of the thunderstorms its very likely they were caught in a strong up draft or down draft, and then you also have the chance that lightning caused the accident.

 

I'm not saying to rule anything out, but it seems most likely the accident was storm related.

[BUFFALOTONE]

Wouldn't someone have claimed it by now? There's little sense in an attack if no one knows where it came from. And why would they be all that interested in a Brazil-France flight?

See my post above regarding terrorist threats to France recently. It was a national holiday in France as well this week. Why would someone claim it? They may down the line.

[BUFFALOTONE]

The plane was heading into 100 mph winds and even though they may have tried to dodge some of the thunderstorms its very likely they were caught in a strong up draft or down draft, and then you also have the chance that lightning caused the accident.

 

I'm not saying to rule anything out, but it seems most likely the accident was storm related.

 

Why burning debri strewn over 35 miles of ocean? It very well could be weather but not hearing any contact from the flight deck is alarming to say the least.

[Guest dog14787]

Why burning debri strewn over 35 miles of ocean? It very well could be weather but not hearing any contact from the flight deck is alarming to say the least.

 

 

Yes it is alarming and unusual to not have any contact at all but it may have happened to fast, as far as the burning debri stretched over 35 miles goes though, the plane could have exploded on contact when it came down and the turbulent weather stretched the debri field.

 

I do have to admit, no contact and the stretched debri field are both clues that say the plane could have exploded instantly in the air.

[Wacka]

Toss in the fact that the floor is constantly shifting/moving with the new crust constantly forming, it'll be a stroke of pure luck to find the black box.

 

The Atlantic spreads at about the rate your fingernails grow.

[Scraps]

With reagrds to the black box, i doubt they'll ever find it. Not only is it at a depth of anywhere from 7,000 to 14,000 feet, they managed to crash pretty much on top of the mid-atlantic ridge. The topography of the ocean floor at the crash site resembles a mountain range. Toss in the fact that the floor is constantly shifting/moving with the new crust constantly forming, it'll be a stroke of pure luck to find the black box.

 

The Liberty Bell 7 was recovered at a depth of 15,000 feet after 38 years. K-129 was partially recovered from a depth of 16,000 feet. Unlike the black boxes of the Air France flight, neither was trying to be found. If they want the black boxes badly enough, they will be found and recovered.

[dib]

With reagrds to the black box, i doubt they'll ever find it. Not only is it at a depth of anywhere from 7,000 to 14,000 feet, they managed to crash pretty much on top of the mid-atlantic ridge. The topography of the ocean floor at the crash site resembles a mountain range. Toss in the fact that the floor is constantly shifting/moving with the new crust constantly forming, it'll be a stroke of pure luck to find the black box.

 

 

The crust moves at best about 1/2 in per year. The "black" box has a battery lifespan of about 30 days.

[Ramius]

The Atlantic spreads at about the rate your fingernails grow.

 

 

With reagrds to the black box, i doubt they'll ever find it. Not only is it at a depth of anywhere from 7,000 to 14,000 feet, they managed to crash pretty much on top of the mid-atlantic ridge. The topography of the ocean floor at the crash site resembles a mountain range. Toss in the fact that the floor is constantly shifting/moving with the new crust constantly forming, it'll be a stroke of pure luck to find the black box.

 

The crust moves at best about 1/2 in per year. The "black" box has a battery lifespan of about 30 days.

 

You guys are right. Motion of the crust at a plate boundary that is both seismically and volcanically active will have no effect whatsoever on the black box that is in that region.

[WVUFootball29]

The Liberty Bell 7 was recovered at a depth of 15,000 feet after 38 years. K-129 was partially recovered from a depth of 16,000 feet. Unlike the black boxes of the Air France flight, neither was trying to be found. If they want the black boxes badly enough, they will be found and recovered.

 

I'm thinking size-wise here this is not an equal comparison. Plus, if the plane broke up in midair the search radius and sample size is going to even larger and smaller respectively.

[erynthered]

The original debris was found roughly 400 miles northeast of the Fernando de Noronha islands off Brazil's northern coast, an area where the ocean floor drops as deep as 22,950 feet.

 

Good luck with that!

[Marv's Neighbor]

With reagrds to the black box, i doubt they'll ever find it. Not only is it at a depth of anywhere from 7,000 to 14,000 feet, they managed to crash pretty much on top of the mid-atlantic ridge. The topography of the ocean floor at the crash site resembles a mountain range. Toss in the fact that the floor is constantly shifting/moving with the new crust constantly forming, it'll be a stroke of pure luck to find the black box.

 

 

 

The crust moves at best about 1/2 in per year. The "black" box has a battery lifespan of about 30 days.

If they locate a significant size debris field, and the tail section is reasonably in tact, they should be able to get the boxes out. Even if the batteries quit, if they can locate the tail the chances improve of recovering the data recorders.

[Guest dog14787]

If they locate a significant size debris field, and the tail section is reasonably in tact, they should be able to get the boxes out. Even if the batteries quit, if they can locate the tail the chances improve of recovering the data recorders.

 

 

The depth creates a big problem though, but in an accident like this I hope they exhaust all efforts to retrieve the data recorders because its a very good possibility that the info stored on the data collectors could help save lives in the future.

[WVUFootball29]

From the latest reports I've read now they are talking about the plane breaking up in the air in the storm. I can't think of a scenario that an extreme updraft or downdraft would be enough to break up the plane. Jim, you have any thoughts on this?

 

If indeed the plane did break up in air, to me this does sound like either, terrorism, a military mistake, or some other catastrophic event similar to what happened to the TWA flight that exploded outside of NYC after the Olympics a few years back.

[eSJayDee]

I can't think of a scenario that an extreme updraft or downdraft would be enough to break up the plane. Jim, you have any thoughts on this?

 

I'm not an engineer, but seems to me that when/if you lose a control surface (wing, epennage(sp?)) so that you're no longer in controlled flight, IMO it would be quite possible.

Buildings fall apart in 100mph winds, how do you think an aluminum fuselage would fare in 500 mph?

[Guest dog14787]

From the latest reports I've read now they are talking about the plane breaking up in the air in the storm. I can't think of a scenario that an extreme updraft or downdraft would be enough to break up the plane. Jim, you have any thoughts on this?

 

If indeed the plane did break up in air, to me this does sound like either, terrorism, a military mistake, or some other catastrophic event similar to what happened to the TWA flight that exploded outside of NYC after the Olympics a few years back.

 

 

I believe it was reported terrorism has for the most part has been ruled out, oddly enough because of the oil slicks it appears the craft did not explode in the air, but more possibly came apart in the air.

 

Caught between the sheer of an unusually strong updraft plus downdraft may have flipped and then torn the plane into pieces in my opinion.

[erynthered]

Good article on what probably happened:

 

http://www.nypost.com/seven/06042009/news/...utes_172538.htm

 

 

 

Perhaps no one will ever know how passengers reacted in those fatal 14 minutes -- whether they screamed, grabbed for the oxygen masks or sat in silent prayer.

 

But once the cabin pressure failed, they would have been unconscious in half a minute, Voss and other experts said.

 

"It would have been as quick as the moment when one falls asleep," Dr. Philippe Juvin, head of emergencies at Beaujon Hospital west of Paris, told the French newspaper Le Monde

[Guest dog14787]

I'm not an engineer, but seems to me that when/if you lose a control surface (wing, epennage(sp?)) so that you're no longer in controlled flight, IMO it would be quite possible.

Buildings fall apart in 100mph winds, how do you think an aluminum fuselage would fare in 500 mph?

 

My thoughts also, aerodynamically a plane is designed to fly through the air in a certain way with extra strength built into the stress points corresponding with wind sheer and flight design, but if you were to flip or turn the plane in a way that is unnatural to the way it was designed to fly, to me it seems very possible that it may rip the plane apart.

 

Note: This possible scenario in my opinion doesn't really go along to well with a spread out debri field covering such a large area which more suggests an explosion occurred, so there's allot of unanswered questions that's for sure. I guess we don't know if the majority of the aircraft held together or not, so I suppose a plane that's ripped in half could still have a spread out debri field just from interior parts of the plane getting sucked out and dispersed as it fell. Its possible the pieces they are finding in the debri field may help tell the story of what really happened.

 

I wonder if a severe enough drop in altitude at a fast enough rate of speed could have caused the planes windows to initially implode because of the drastic change in cabin pressure that went along with it.

[Wacka]

Airbuses have a lot of carbon fiber in them.

[bills_fan]

My thoughts also, aerodynamically a plane is designed to fly through the air in a certain way with extra strength built into the stress points corresponding with wind sheer and flight design, but if you were to flip or turn the plane in a way that is unnatural to the way it was designed to fly, to me it seems very possible that it may rip the plane apart.

 

Note: This possible scenario in my opinion doesn't really go along to well with a spread out debri field covering such a large area which more suggests an explosion occurred, so there's allot of unanswered questions that's for sure. I guess we don't know if the majority of the aircraft held together or not, so I suppose a plane that's ripped in half could still have a spread out debri field just from interior parts of the plane getting sucked out and dispersed as it fell. Its possible the pieces they are finding in the debri field may help tell the story of what really happened.

 

I wonder if a severe enough drop in altitude at a fast enough rate of speed could have caused the planes windows to initially implode because of the drastic change in cabin pressure that went along with it.

 

 

Thats about my guess. The plane lost all electrical controls in a span of about 4 minutes, possibly due to a severe lightning strike coupled with an extreme updraft. At that point, the plane would have been unflyable. It would have been falling out of the sky like a dead duck. The engines and wings would come off first, than the cabin would begin to break apart. That would explain the wide debris field.