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At this point in the year this is pretty meaningless. There are always surprises in both directions. For the Bills if four things happen they will improve:

 

  • Offensive line has to gell and quickly - assume they will have essentially five new starters because of changes with two rookies in the mix
  • D-line needs to generate a pass rush
  • Trent Edwards has to step up and improve his play significantly. He must minimize mistakes.
  • Coaching staff has to make better game day decisions and put the team in position to win. Especially true on offensive side.

 

If any one of these does not happen then goodbye Jauron and crew and welcome to rebuilding - again.

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Shhhhhh ... Leave him alone. He's deep-thinking.

 

Nice one, Tim, you got me: "(Editor's note: LW indicates each team's ranking last week -- in this case, in the 2008 Week 18 Power Rankings.)"

 

If I would have taken a second to read that, I would have realized the records were from last season. However, 21st? Some of your members of that group were calling the Bills off-season one of the best in the NFL. And you all get together and predict the Bills to be just about as bad as last season?

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Nice one, Tim, you got me: "(Editor's note: LW indicates each team's ranking last week -- in this case, in the 2008 Week 18 Power Rankings.)"

 

If I would have taken a second to read that, I would have realized the records were from last season. However, 21st? Some of your members of that group were calling the Bills off-season one of the best in the NFL. And you all get together and predict the Bills to be just about as bad as last season?

21st seems like a reasonable prediction to me. Bear in mind the following:

  • Last season, the Bills went 7-9 against a soft schedule. This year the schedule's a lot tougher.
  • The Bills lost a fair number of veterans, at least on the offensive line. While the interior offensive linemen may be better over the long run, it's realistic to expect offensive linemen to experience significant problems.
  • You could also make the argument that rookie defensive linemen very often produce little; so our expectations for Maybin should be modest until his second year.
  • The Bills experienced a downgrade at LT; going from Peters to Langston Walker.
  • Terrell Owens is getting on in years; and may not provide the same impact he once would have.

Based on the above, a 6-10 (or even 5-11) record is not out of the question. On the other hand, you could argue that additions like Owens and Hangartner will bring the record up to 7-9. (Especially with a little luck, and a few unforeseen factors breaking our way.)

 

Is there a chance for a winning record this season? Sure. If our rookies develop quickly, if Owens has a good year, if we avoid significant injuries, if the offensive line gels rapidly, if a few lucky breaks go our way, a 9-7 record is not out of the question. But such a record is, in my opinion, a lot less likely than 6-10. As things stand, the power ranking they gave us seems about right.

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7-9 only gets you so far on any ranking...

Still, with a record of 7-9 coupled with having brilliantly managed to divest ourselves of our only pro bowler, you'd expect some respect, *sheesh*

 

Go 0-6 in your division and all of a sudden everyone thinks you suck. Go figure.

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Still, with a record of 7-9 coupled with having brilliantly managed to divest ourselves of our only pro bowler, you'd expect some respect, *sheesh*

 

Go 0-6 in your division and all of a sudden everyone thinks you suck. Go figure.

 

 

Marshawn also played in the Pro Bowl.

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21st seems like a reasonable prediction to me.... Is there a chance for a winning record this season? Sure. If our rookies develop quickly, if Owens has a good year, if we avoid significant injuries, if the offensive line gels rapidly, if a few lucky breaks go our way, a 9-7 record is not out of the question....

 

Very sound logic, and the experts seemed to agree with all of your points.

 

But please answer one question: Did you and those experts see Miami going from 1-15-0 to AFC Champions in one season before last year at this time? And another pet peeve of mine, this "strength of schedule" logic. Let's use the Dolphins again:

 

I bet every NFL fan of teams that had the Dolphins on their schedule before last season, marked off the Dolphins game or games as definite wins as they made their team's 2008 predictions. Yes sir, nothing "strong" about having those Dolphins on their schedules last season, right?

 

Every single season since the era of total free agency and the salary cap began about 15 years ago, there are 2 to 4 teams that make big leaps in the standings from one season to the next, and in most of those cases, not a single "expert" predicted it to happen ahead of time.

 

Buffalo has had a very interesting off season, and in everyone's opinion, a very good draft. I think they could very easily be one of those 2 to 4 teams that make a big leap in the standings. The easy "safe" prediction is for the Bills to spin their wheels and end up exactly where they ended up last season.

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He is dead on, we need to fortify the trenches on offense and defense before we compete for a division title.

The D line is WAY better then the O line at this point. C'mon at least they have 4-6 experienced guys that could start on the D line.

 

The O line has what, one - two starters out of 14 on the roster and all at new positions. If the bills somehow manage to gain any yardage this season It will be a miracle. 7-9 was being kind, more like 3-13 :thumbsup:

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The D line is WAY better then the O line at this point. C'mon at least they have 4-6 experienced guys that could start on the D line.

 

 

Right now, I have no idea how good, or bad, the O line will be this year. It's a big risk, that's for sure, but we don't know they won't mesh. If the interior really is much stronger, I have more confidence on the tackles being good enough. If the rookies don't step up, it could be a real nightmare.

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Why are we behind the Jets? They have a rookie QB, and no WRs for him to throw to. Trent, at least, has two #1 targets. I'm not saying we should be much higher, but seriously... the Jets ahead of us?!

We have Jauron. Legitimizes them putting us behind anyone including Detroit.

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Very sound logic, and the experts seemed to agree with all of your points.

 

But please answer one question: Did you and those experts see Miami going from 1-15-0 to AFC Champions in one season before last year at this time?

I can only speak for myself, but at around this time last year, I saw the Dolphins as maybe a 6-10 team. The fact they won as many games as they did came as a surprise. Maybe if I'd thought about their situation a little more deeply, it wouldn't have. They added a wily veteran quarterback in the form of Chad Pennington; turning what had been a position of weakness into one of strength. They had a very good draft, beginning with the first overall draft pick. They added a lot of free agents; who collectively performed better than I'd expected. They upgraded their coaching staff.

And another pet peeve of mine, this "strength of schedule" logic. Let's use the Dolphins again:

 

I bet every NFL fan of teams that had the Dolphins on their schedule before last season, marked off the Dolphins game or games as definite wins as they made their team's 2008 predictions. Yes sir, nothing "strong" about having those Dolphins on their schedules last season, right?

Good point. An interesting experiment would be to denote an "expected strength of schedule" (before the season begins), and compare it to "actual strength of schedule" (after the season ends).

Every single season since the era of total free agency and the salary cap began about 15 years ago, there are 2 to 4 teams that make big leaps in the standings from one season to the next, and in most of those cases, not a single "expert" predicted it to happen ahead of time.

 

Buffalo has had a very interesting off season, and in everyone's opinion, a very good draft. I think they could very easily be one of those 2 to 4 teams that make a big leap in the standings. The easy "safe" prediction is for the Bills to spin their wheels and end up exactly where they ended up last season.

I tend to agree that the Bills had a good draft. Which is probably a good thing, because the Bills could easily be starting five or six rookie players at some point in the 2009 season. (Two on the OL, Maybin at DE, Byrd at FS, Nelson at TE, and Harris at OLB.) A reasonable scenario would be for those rookies to have problems early on, but to play well in the last several games of the season (after they've started getting a better feel for the NFL). Come 2010, they'd pick up right where they left off.

 

If the 2009 draft turns out to be a very good one (which could well be the case), odds are the full magnitude of that benefit won't be apparent in 2009. On the other hand, it's possible that many people (including me) are over-rating the quality of this draft, exactly as so many of us did for the 2006 draft. I don't think we are, but there's only one way to truly know for sure. And that's to wait and see . . .

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