Lori Posted November 6, 2004 Posted November 6, 2004 Can you guess what the 73.8% refers to? (Probably not - it is kind of obscure.) That was Chad Pennington's completion percentage in the October 10th game against the Bills. Anyone else get tired of watching Chad play catch with a wide-open Wayne Chrebet for three hours? I know I did. And if he approaches that % again this Sunday, it won't bode well for the prospects of a Bills win. That said, I've actually got a good feeling about this game. In that first game, the Bills defense contained Curtis Martin as well as anybody has this season (22 carries, 77 yds, 3.5 ypc, 0 TD). Plus, with Lawyer Milloy back, maybe those little dumpoffs to RBs and TEs won't be so readily available to Pennington... and #36 probably doesn't get toasted the way Pierson Prioleau did, either. As always seems to be the case with this team, though, I think the Bills' offense determines the outcome of this game (for good or bad). The Bills HAVE to slow down John Abraham by any means possible... RBs, TEs, heck, send HoJo and Woody off the sideline after him if you have to. (Caught a little of Howard's show on GR this morning, and had to laugh when he said exactly the same thing I'd written down at work last night about using everybody including the equipment manager...) With Reed out, Buffalo probably uses a lot more two-TE sets Sunday... which might not be such a bad idea in the first place. So here's the gameplan: -Run McGahee early and often, and keep it up for the whole game; Jets are giving up over 4 ypc on D. -Max-protect whenever they have to - after MM peeled the O-line and they started giving Bledsoe a little more time in the first Jets game, he exposed some holes in the NY secondary. -And most importantly - avoid the Big Mistake. Jets are +12 in turnovers, Bills are -4. If the Bills are stuck in a bunch of 3rd-and-long situations (like they were in the first meeting), expect those numbers to get worse. I don't think that happens, though. With 20-25 carries and another 100-yard game, the Willis McGahee legend continues to grow. Bills, 21-17. But hey, that's just my opinion.. I could be wrong.....
Campy Posted November 6, 2004 Posted November 6, 2004 Great post. I'd love to add to it, but you pretty much nailed it.
njsue Posted November 6, 2004 Posted November 6, 2004 I agree run Willis. Sam Cowart is out. Looks like Chrebet might be too. The jests are minus 2 guards on the oline Looks like Pennington could be planted on the cold hard field. GO BILLS BURN GANGREEN
Mark VI Posted November 6, 2004 Posted November 6, 2004 Top shelf observations Lori, as always. Reading your intelligent posts are always a breath of fresh air. Once the " Look at Me " crowd shows up, this post will vanish off page 1. What a crying shame.
VABills Posted November 6, 2004 Posted November 6, 2004 Top shelf observations Lori, as always. Reading your intelligent posts are always a breath of fresh air. Once the " Look at Me " crowd shows up, this post will vanish off page 1. What a crying shame. 104499[/snapback] Good job Lori. And Mark I thought you were of that ilk.
Mark VI Posted November 6, 2004 Posted November 6, 2004 Mark I thought you were of that ilk. 104500[/snapback] Indeed ! Sorry to ruin the thread, Lori.
Lori Posted November 6, 2004 Author Posted November 6, 2004 Top shelf observations Lori, as always. Reading your intelligent posts are always a breath of fresh air. Once the " Look at Me " crowd shows up, this post will vanish off page 1. What a crying shame. 104499[/snapback] Bleep them. *gratuitous bump* Look at me!
MDH Posted November 6, 2004 Posted November 6, 2004 -And most importantly - avoid the Big Mistake. Jets are +12 in turnovers, Bills are -4. If the Bills are stuck in a bunch of 3rd-and-long situations (like they were in the first meeting), expect those numbers to get worse. 104424[/snapback] I hope we're smart enough to simply do a few draws or screens (err, maybe not screens...) in those situations and just punt the football. Except at the end of games our D doesn't give up many long sustained drives...make 'em drive the field on us and see if Pennington can complete 73.8% of his passes with a 20mph gust.
njsue Posted November 6, 2004 Posted November 6, 2004 The jests are not that good. Please. If they were that good they would have done what the steelers did. Beat the living crap out of NE. GO BILLS BURN GANGREEN
Lori Posted November 6, 2004 Author Posted November 6, 2004 I hope we're smart enough to simply do a few draws or screens (err, maybe not screens...) in those situations and just punt the football. Except at the end of games our D doesn't give up many long sustained drives...make 'em drive the field on us and see if Pennington can complete 73.8% of his passes with a 20mph gust. 104888[/snapback] Agreed. Low-risk stuff. (Yeah... probably not screens, at least not the way this team runs them..... ) Put the game in the hands of our Pro Bowl punter and the #2 defense, if we have to.
Simon Posted November 6, 2004 Posted November 6, 2004 73.8%..... That was Chad Pennington's completion percentage in the October 10th game against the Bills. I wonder what it is on the season. The guy is phenomonally accurate and I think that the majority of opposing fans don't give the guy enough credit for being what he is; one of the best in the NFL today. The Bills can beat these guys but I admit, that boy scares me. The Bills HAVE to slow down John Abraham by any means possible... RBs, TEs, ..........Buffalo probably uses a lot more two-TE sets Sunday Sounds good in theory but in reality I think staff realizes that this is a glaring weakness on this team. We have a couple solid TE's in Campbell and Euhus but the problem is that neither one of them is worth a handful of spit as a pass protector. I'd love to see a guy like EKinney serving as essentially an extra Tackle but the fact is our maxprotect packages are underwhelming. Since Drew is going to throw off his back foot all day anyways, maybe it's time to bust out the TE pop-pass!-) Your gameplan is a good start, and I would add that I'd reallllly like to see us take at least a couple shots downfield early on a suspect Jet secondary. Seeing Evans running behind a Jet corner for the second time in the last 2 qrtrs could force the Jets into some 2-deep and really create some space for McGahee. I hope we're smart enough to simply do a few draws or screens (err, maybe not screens...) in those situations(3rd/long) Maybe not draws either. The 3rddown draw is usually only effective when it's an aberration in your offense. The Bills have been going to it so consistently on 3rddown that other teams have got have been gameplanning against it for at least the last month. Interestingly enough, while it hasn't been as effective as it was in the first couple weeks, it's still remained effective even when teams recognize it's coming. Imo, it really says a lot for the idea of running out of spread sets on some other downs. Cya P.S. I must be some kind of masochist because I'm really really really looking forward to the Jennings/Abraham rematch. Injured or not, Jonas' pride took a big hit when Abraham tore him up in the first meeting. It's going to be a vicious dogfight this time and I fully expect it to degenerate into biting and clawing before it's all over. Show me something ugly JonasJ!
Lori Posted November 6, 2004 Author Posted November 6, 2004 Simon: Pennington's % for the season is 68.2. And thanks for the input. I realize none of the current TEs is likely to make anyone forget Big Red's blocking ability any time soon. My thoughts were more along the lines of, with either Aiken or a second TE in the game instead of Reed, Tom Clements will be forced into more of a run-first mindset. And for this game, I think that's a good thing.
Simon Posted November 6, 2004 Posted November 6, 2004 I realize none of the current TEs is likely to make anyone forget Big Red's blocking ability any time soon. My thoughts were more along the lines of, with either Aiken or a second TE in the game instead of Reed, Tom Clements will be forced into more of a run-first mindset. I don't mind our TE's work when they're blocking for the ground game; Campbell is allright when he can fire off the line or is just asked to seal the edge and Euhus has even shown some ability to pull down the line and still locate and engage targets, but when you ask either of them to set their feet and protect they just look horrible. As for the run-first mindset, I completely agree. The Jet Front7 strikes me as very athletic but not terribly stout. We've seen the Bills bludgeon them w/ Travis not that long ago, and I agree that they're probably still prone to it. In fact I wouldn't mind seeing Travis get some touches early on to punish NJ defenders as I recall some times when he's run very well on the Jets. Clements goes patient early and uses an interior groundgame to soften up the Jets and then a relatively fresh Willis runs wild as we salt it away in the 4th!!!
MDH Posted November 6, 2004 Posted November 6, 2004 Maybe not draws either. The 3rddown draw is usually only effective when it's an aberration in your offense. The Bills have been going to it so consistently on 3rddown that other teams have got have been gameplanning against it for at least the last month. Interestingly enough, while it hasn't been as effective as it was in the first couple weeks, it's still remained effective even when teams recognize it's coming. Imo, it really says a lot for the idea of running out of spread sets on some other downs. 104979[/snapback] Yeah, I'm not too worried about being effective though, I just want Mularky to play it safe on 3rd and long and avoid the turnover. I don't even mind if they just run it straight into the line on 3rd and longs as long as we're not trying to throw the ball over the middle of the field while the D sits back in a zone. Wouldn’t mind seeing a fade or two down the sideline on 3rd and long as well…anything with a low turnover percentage. Hopefully the running game and short passing game are efficient enough to keep us out of 3rd and longs. Though I am kinda getting tired of seeing empty backfields on 3rd and 4 or less. Perhaps I'm just really tuned into it after last season with KG, but it seems like we're doing this an awful lot this season as well.
GG Posted November 6, 2004 Posted November 6, 2004 Oh man, you've given me an assignment. I'm being a geek today and editing Bills' games on my PC, so the Jets game will be next.
Lori Posted November 6, 2004 Author Posted November 6, 2004 Oh man, you've given me an assignment. I'm being a geek today and editing Bills' games on my PC, so the Jets game will be next. 105027[/snapback] You mean the one last month? I'd suggest leaving out any Bills offensive plays for the first three quarters.
GG Posted November 6, 2004 Posted November 6, 2004 You mean the one last month? I'd suggest leaving out any Bills offensive plays for the first three quarters. 105036[/snapback] But what better way to gauge the futility of the OL?
Simon Posted November 6, 2004 Posted November 6, 2004 Wouldn’t mind seeing a fade or two down the sideline on 3rd and long as well I wish it was a bigger part of our package as well. Covering those fade-stops is a nightmare for corners and when you're dealing with a strong receiver like Moulds, defending your back shoulder is all but impossible. The only problem with it on 3rddown is you're likely to see overthetop help whcih enables the corner to cover it more agressively. Of course as many blitzes as we've been seeing the last 5 years, that help isn't always there and if you can complete them you can really sap the agression out of a defense. Cya
Lori Posted November 6, 2004 Author Posted November 6, 2004 But what better way to gauge the futility of the OL? 105039[/snapback] Valid point.
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