bills_fan Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 By Howard Davidowitz. He's colorful, but tells it the way it is. Big problems ahead. All I can add is...spot on. Great Interview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 That guy has no idea what's he talking about. Why, just a week or so ago all the news was about how the economy was showing signs of life. We're bottoming out. The rebound is coming any second now. Why, look at the stock market today. Today we saw THE SINGLE GREATEST single-day surge in almost five weeks!!! You just can't argue with that truth. That stimulus money is working, dammit. It's getting to the people (albeit, the dead people) and nurses and cops and teachers still have their jobs (except in most states) and shovel ready jobs have bridges being built all over the country (well, they will as soon as the money makes it past the red tape and into the places that were promised the cash). In all seriousness, I don't mind admitting that listening to Davidowitz made me miss my crazy Old Uncle Louie, who always used to show up at family functions by stepping out of his big old Cadillac dressed from head to toe in madras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 By Howard Davidowitz. He's colorful, but tells it the way it is. Big problems ahead. All I can add is...spot on. Great Interview The biggest issue I have is that equities analysts continue to opine on the fixed income markets, which many do not understand. His passing mention of General Growth bankruptcy gives short shift to the huge effect the company's bankruptcy machinations will have on the CMBS market. If there was an inkling of a rebound there, General Growth sank it rather quickly. Last two weeks have been very active in a good way for new issuances. But no one knows if it's lasting or just a brief window for healthy companies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwight Drane Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Lunatic.... He IS my uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Lunatic.... He IS my uncle. runs in the family Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Lunatic.... He IS my uncle. Funny, I wouldn't have figured you having Howard Davidowitz as an uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwight Drane Posted May 19, 2009 Share Posted May 19, 2009 runs in the family no.....we all have normal BM's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted May 19, 2009 Share Posted May 19, 2009 and shovel ready jobs have bridges being built all over the country (well, they will as soon as the money makes it past the red tape and into the places that were promised the cash). No red tape here. Jobs are already being done... They have work being done right now on I-94 with the money. There is a big sign right next to where they are doing work... It says that the construction was paid for with stimulus money... Glad there are signs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted May 19, 2009 Share Posted May 19, 2009 yesterdays markets the Dow closing at 8,504.08 rose +235.44 (+2.77%) But hey what to the markets know. We have banking experts here like LA and DC to tell us the real story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted May 19, 2009 Share Posted May 19, 2009 yesterdays markets the Dow closing at 8,504.08 rose +235.44 (+2.77%) But hey what to the markets know. We have banking experts here like LA and DC to tell us the real story. Price of oil has just about doubled too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted May 19, 2009 Share Posted May 19, 2009 Price of oil has just about doubled too And that's the markets fault? Or the greedy oil business? The demand is still low, yet the price went up on what? Speculation? Oil rises to near $60 on signs recession easing It's time to screw the consumers AGAIN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finknottle Posted May 19, 2009 Share Posted May 19, 2009 No red tape here. Jobs are already being done... They have work being done right now on I-94 with the money. There is a big sign right next to where they are doing work... It says that the construction was paid for with stimulus money... Glad there are signs... Slightly off topic, but your comment prompts me to think about one committment which apparently is not shovel-ready: the promised web-site which tracks the spending. Posted signs may be all we have to go on for a while. I am just finishing "Backstabbing for Beginners" by Michael Sousson, and recommend it to everyone as a cautionary tale about bureaucracies. It is the darkly-comic account of his time at the UN, joining in the mid-nineties as a young idealist and becoming a central player in the trenches of the oversight division for the Oil-for-Food program. (Ultimately he became a whistle-blower). The lessons one takes away from it is that the turf wars and petty politics of any large organization without market-place accountability will undermine the best of intentions and allow corruption and self-serving agendas to flourish. Attempts to create accountability are defanged and stifled by the interests of the lower-level bureaucracies in showing that they are carrying out their mandates, that everything is rosey, and that their programs should be expanded - irrespective to the truth. We saw what happened to the TARP money, and it does not bode well for the stimulus package. Like the oil-for-food program, the stimulus represents a sudden but sustained massive infusion of cash, for which we have contradictory mandates: (1) we will spend the money quickly, (2) but we will spend it only on worthwile projects, and (3) we will make sure there is no fraud and waste. And also like the oil-for-food program, an organization to monitor the program is being spun up after the fact. Within the government, elements will readily charge ahead on (1). It will be the job of this toothless oversight organization to assure the public on (2) and (3), regardless of what they actually find, lest the politically unacceptable happen and the program is labeled a failure. And you can pretty much bet that they'll get the runaround and any waste will be hidden from them. So far, they have not even been able to set up a web-site listing contracts awarded - in an appearance before congress, this was attributed to a lack of hard-drives... It is a very entertaining book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted May 19, 2009 Share Posted May 19, 2009 Jobs are already being done... They have work being done right now on I-94 with the money. There is a big sign right next to where they are doing work... It says that the construction was paid for with stimulus money... Funny. California's money is being held hostage until the state agrees to give union workers the $2/hour cut from their pay as part of an effort to cut the budget deficit. So until SEIU gets their money back, no stimulus for California. Illinois must be taking care of it's union workers. yesterdays markets the Dow closing at 8,504.08 rose +235.44 (+2.77%) Why, that was the largest single-day increase IN MORE THAN FOUR WEEKS!!! Rebound, here we come!!! Thank ya Jesus for Lowes turning a profit!!! And that's the markets fault? Or the greedy oil business? I just spent eight years listening to the left cry because high gas prices were the fault of the president. So now that there's a lefty president, the oil prices are caused by the big, bad, greedy corporation? Wasn't Obama going to take those windfall profits and spread the wealth to you guys who need the government to take care of your lives since you have no ability to take care of yourself? When do you guys get that bailout? Or maybe he didn't really mean what he said during his camaign. Nah. Couldn't be. So in review; if Lowes turns a profit, Obama is saving the world. If oil companies turn a profit, they're greedy bastards sticking it to the man, dude. Neat little Cool Whip World you got swirling around in that noggin, sister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted May 19, 2009 Author Share Posted May 19, 2009 The biggest issue I have is that equities analysts continue to opine on the fixed income markets, which many do not understand. His passing mention of General Growth bankruptcy gives short shift to the huge effect the company's bankruptcy machinations will have on the CMBS market. If there was an inkling of a rebound there, General Growth sank it rather quickly. Last two weeks have been very active in a good way for new issuances. But no one knows if it's lasting or just a brief window for healthy companies. Agreed, but GGP's bankruptcy is healthy. Its the only way we will clear out the bad debts. I like to use the forest fire analogy, burn away the rubbish and set the stage for new, healthy growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted May 19, 2009 Share Posted May 19, 2009 Agreed, but GGP's bankruptcy is healthy. Its the only way we will clear out the bad debts. I like to use the forest fire analogy, burn away the rubbish and set the stage for new, healthy growth. Of course it's healthy when you bring all bankruptcy remote securitizations into the corporate bankruptcy. It's not how securitizations are supposed to work, and will bring more pain to the commercial real estate sector in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted May 19, 2009 Author Share Posted May 19, 2009 Of course it's healthy when you bring all bankruptcy remote securitizations into the corporate bankruptcy. It's not how securitizations are supposed to work, and will bring more pain to the commercial real estate sector in the near term. Totally agree. In the long term, however, it will help the recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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