First Contract and Out

[silvermike]

As far as other position, the best players on the Bills since the superbowl era seem to be primarily UFAs. TKO, Bryce Paup, and Speilmann come to mind. Cowart was a nice draft pick and a potential star, but he got hurt, as did the guys I mentioned.

 

When you start at 1993, most of our first round picks have been wasted on transitory defensive backs and busts. Of course, our record reflects as much.

 

Golly, I wonder what happened around February 4th, 1993 that would cause our drafting to get worse. I can't imagine...

 

But quick and dirty, here's our all-drafted team since that day:

 

QB: Trent Edwards

RB: Marshawn Lynch, Travis Henry

WR: Eric Moulds, Lee Evans

TE: Jay Riemersma

OT: Jonas Jennings, Corey Louichey

OG: Reuben Brown, Brad Butler

C: Dusty Ziegler

DE: Marcellus Wiley, Aaron Schobel

DT: Ron Edwards, Kyle Williams

LB: Sam Cowart, Paul Posluszny, Angelo Crowell

CB: Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements

SS: Donte Whitner

FS: I honestly can't come up with anyone. Ko Simpson? Eric Smedley?

 

That's probably not a playoff team.

[Bill from NYC]

I believe the transitory nature of the Bills first round picks has to do with the Bills FO, and their reluctance to re-sign the players before they become FAs, and then refuse to get into an FA bidding war with other teams. That they happen to be talented DBs is coincidental. I firmly believe that, had they been successful DTs or LTs, the results (the player leaving after the 1st contract) would remain the same.

 

Maybe. However, Clements was different. I heard him on Sirius and I can tell you that for whatever reason, he wanted no part of being in Buffalo. I also sense that he was offered an early deal and refused to re-sign.

 

Clements took a huge gamble. It paid off, but it just as easily could have backfired, especially given his style when he returned punts (which he was excellent at).

[Bill from NYC]

Golly, I wonder what happened around February 4th, 1993 that would cause our drafting to get worse. I can't imagine...

 

But quick and dirty, here's our all-drafted team since that day:

 

QB: Trent Edwards

RB: Marshawn Lynch, Travis Henry

WR: Eric Moulds, Lee Evans

TE: Jay Riemersma

OT: Jonas Jennings, Corey Louichey

OG: Reuben Brown, Brad Butler

C: Dusty Ziegler

DE: Marcellus Wiley, Aaron Schobel

DT: Ron Edwards, Kyle Williams

LB: Sam Cowart, Paul Posluszny, Angelo Crowell

CB: Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements

SS: Donte Whitner

FS: I honestly can't come up with anyone. Ko Simpson? Eric Smedley?

 

That's probably not a playoff team.

 

OUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

OMG, that is freaking scary! Seriously, do you remember just how bad Corey Loucheiy was? The DTs alone make me want to cry, let alone Riemersma. He has some fans here, but imo he was a non-blocking possession receiver with bad hands.

 

Imo there is some good news Mike. I really do like these Guards we drafted!

[silvermike]

OUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

OMG, that is freaking scary! Seriously, do you remember just how bad Corey Loucheiy was? The DTs alone make me want to cry, let alone Riemersma. He has some fans here, but imo he was a non-blocking possession receiver with bad hands.

 

Imo there is some good news Mike. I really do like these Guards we drafted! thumbsup.gif

 

I'll note that this team gets much better if you allow for UDFAs, as you remove Edwards and Louchey and replace them with Pat Williams and Jason Peters. But even so - this is *FIFTEEN YEARS* of Bills' drafting.

[Offside Number 76]

If it isn't three and a half times as good as your argument then there must be an error somewhere.

 

There is, and it's your math. It's about 2.75 times as good. It's nowhere near 3.5. Where the hell did you get 3.5 from?

[Orton's Arm]

When I checked on this thread, my first reaction was, Cool. It's up to two pages already. Glad to see things are going well. Then I looked at people's posts, and saw that, with a few exceptions (such as SilverMike and Bill from NYC) no actual content had been added to this thread.

 

But one poster decided to give his hooting a thin veneer of intellectual respectability. To do this, he tried to argue that the Bills are generally reluctant to retain their most successful players at any position. The problem, supposedly, wasn't that the front office valued CBs too highly in the draft (too many first round picks) or too little in free agency (none of those first round picks were extended). Instead, he felt that, had those first round picks been used on players at other positions, and had those players done as well as the CBs did, they too would have been allowed to go first contract and out.

 

To examine that particular argument more closely, let's look at the Bills' first round picks starting around the time of the Super Bowl era:

 

Offensive line: John Fina, Ruben Brown, Mike Williams.

Result: every player was either a bust (Williams) or was retained for the bulk of his useful career.

 

WR: Eric Moulds, Lee Evans.

Result: both players were successful picks, who have given (or will have given) the majority of their careers to Buffalo.

 

QB: Rob Johnson, Drew Bledsoe, J.P. Losman

Result: none of the guys worked out.

 

TE: no one

 

RB: Antowain Smith, Marshawn Lynch

Result: Smith was released after a few years, and continued to produce at a so-so level. Lynch is entering his fourth season with the Bills.

 

Defensive line: Erik Flowers, John McCargo

Result: Flowers was a bust, McCargo's career looks iffy

 

LB: nobody

 

Safety: Henry Jones, Donte Whitner

Result: of Jones' twelve seasons in the league, ten were spent with Buffalo.

 

CB: James Williams, Thomas Smith, Jeff Burris, Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements, Leodis McKelvin

Result: Of his six years in the league, Williams spent four with Buffalo. Of Smith's nine years in the league, seven were spent with the Bills. Of Burris' ten years in the NFL, four were spent with Buffalo. Of Winfield's ten years (and counting) in the NFL, five were spent with Buffalo. Clements gave the Bills six years, and is now with the '49ers.

 

The story is clear. From 1990 - 2005, there were five successful non-CBs chosen in the first round. All of them were retained for the majority of their careers. During that same span, four successful CBs were chosen in the first round. Those four players averaged 5.5 years in Buffalo before leaving.

[flomoe]

slow day? You and Skooby should set up a playdate

 

 

 

That is just some funny sh-- right there.

[Ramius]

When I checked on this thread, my first reaction was, Cool. It's up to two pages already. Glad to see things are going well. Then I looked at people's posts, and saw that, with a few exceptions (such as SilverMike and Bill from NYC) no actual content had been added to this thread.

 

the posts were simply reflecting the content level in the original post.

 

Point: dinosaurs

[Lurker]

The story is clear. From 1990 - 2005, there were five successful non-CBs chosen in the first round. All of them were retained for the majority of their careers. During that same span, four successful CBs were chosen in the first round. Those four players averaged 5.5 years in Buffalo before leaving.

Putting aside the introduction of FA as an 'apples to oranges' comparision of pre-1989 career longevity from your original post, the trend you point out may be due to the fact FA CB salaries have become astronomically inflated as the league has become more QB-driven/pass-happy. Couple this with the Bills ability to draft well at the CB position.

 

IMO, it makes little sense to retain high-priced FA CBs when they are easily replaced via the draft and the money saved from that decision can be spread around to other positions. CBs seem to be the RB-equivalent on the defensive side of the ball--big impact young guys with relatively short careers. Not a good investment, and the demand for them in FA continues to puzzle me.

[Lurker]

Golly, I wonder what happened around February 4th, 1993 that would cause our drafting to get worse. I can't imagine...

Gee, when I clicked on your link, I was expecting to see this...

[MarkyMannn]

the Bills FO, and their reluctance to re-sign the players before they become FAs, and then refuse to get into an FA bidding war with other teams.

 

Unfortunately the Sabres FO looked at this and said "now there's a business model we can follow!!!". Goodbye Briere, Drury, Campbell, etc.................

[Orton's Arm]

Putting aside the introduction of FA as an 'apples to oranges' comparision of pre-1989 career longevity from your original post, the trend you point out may be due to the fact FA CB salaries have become astronomically inflated as the league has become more QB-driven/pass-happy. Couple this with the Bills ability to draft well at the CB position.

 

IMO, it makes little sense to retain high-priced FA CBs when they are easily replaced via the draft and the money saved from that decision can be spread around to other positions. CBs seem to be the RB-equivalent on the defensive side of the ball--big impact young guys with relatively short careers. Not a good investment, and the demand for them in FA continues to puzzle me.

Probably a good comparison team for us is the Indianapolis Colts. It's the same general manager (Bill Polian) we used to have, and Polian's success with the Manning era Colts came after the introduction of free agency. Let's look at their first round picks, from 1994 - 2005:

 

QB: Peyton Manning

Result: dramatic success story who will spend his useful career with the Colts.

 

WR: Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne

Result: Both players proved successful, and both will have given their useful careers to the Colts.

 

RB: Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James

Result: Falk was traded after giving the Colts five years. Out of a ten year career, James gave the Colts his first seven.

 

G: Tarik Glenn

Result: a ten year career for the Colts.

 

TE: Dallas Clark

Result: Clark has given the Colts six years thus far, and is still with the team.

 

DE: Ellis Johnson, Dwight Freeney

Out of his ten years in the league, Johnson gave the Colts seven. Freeney has given the Colts seven years thus far, and is still with the team.

 

LB: Trev Alberts, Rob Morris

Result: Trev Alberts was out of the NFL after three years. Rob Morris gave the Colts eight years before hanging up his cleats.

 

CB: Marlin Jackson

Result: Jackson has been a Colt the past four years, and is still with the team.

 

With the exception of Faulk, the Colts' first round success stories spent the bulk of their useful careers with the Colts. And even in Faulk's case, the Colts at least got something (a second and fifth) for the guy. Compare that to the post Super Bowl era Bills--a team that's blithely spent first round picks on CBs, again and again, even though their average first round CB success story only provides the Bills with 5.5 years before vamoosing in free agency.

 

If the Bills don't care enough about the CB position to retain their own top-tier free agents--which they clearly don't--then they shouldn't use first round picks on it in the first place. The fact that they have is a symptom of short-sighted general managers--guys living for today--rather than a GM like Polian who's clearly focused on using his first round picks to find long-term building blocks for his team.

[Lurker]

QB: Peyton Manning

Result: dramatic success story who will spend his useful career with the Colts.

Hitting on a franchise/HOF QB makes every GM--good ones like Bill, or mediocre ones like Andy Reid (flaming to commence in 3, 2, 1)--look like a genius. How many picks did the Bills waste on the QB position under TD and Marv? How much freedom has that QB position being locked down given Polian to put his picks to work on other roster positions over the years?

 

If you are arguing that the Bills FO has been less than exceptional in the post-1993 era, do you think anyone here disputes that? But the original post about retaining the core of the Bills SB team in a pre-FA era still seems like apples to-oranges to me. Who's to say that any of those stars wouldn't have left for bigger bucks if they had the opportunities to cash in that today's players have? I gotta believe that 'Dre would've gone elsewhere, as he always thought he was underpaid here...

[Orton's Arm]

Hitting on a franchise/HOF QB makes every GM--good ones like Bill, or mediocre ones like Andy Reid (flaming to commence in 3, 2, 1)--look like a genius. How many picks did the Bills waste on the QB position under TD and Marv? How much freedom has that QB position being locked down given Polian to put his picks to work on other roster positions over the years?

 

If you are arguing that the Bills FO has been less than exceptional in the post-1993 era, do you think anyone here disputes that? But the original post about retaining the core of the Bills SB team in a pre-FA era still seems like apples to-oranges to me. Who's to say that any of those stars wouldn't have left for bigger bucks if they had the opportunities to cash in that today's players have? I gotta believe that 'Dre would've gone elsewhere, as he always thought he was underpaid here...

Since 1993, the Bills have used five first round picks on CBs (Thomas Smith, Burris, Winfield, Clements, McKelvin), and three first round picks on QBs (Johnson, Bledsoe, Losman). During that same span, the Colts used only one first round pick on a CB (Marlin Jackson) and one first round picks on the QB position (Peyton Manning). Losing those two extra first round picks (plus an occasional pick in a later round) on quarterback didn't help us, but it hasn't hurt us nearly as badly as has the first round CB hemorrhage.

 

With the exception of Marshall Faulk, whenever a Colts' first round pick went on to have a successful career, most of that career was spent with the team that drafted him. You could say exactly the same thing about the Bills, back when they were building themselves into a Super Bowl contender. When you come right down to it, there isn't a whole lot of difference between how Polian ran the Bills and how he's run the Colts--despite the introduction of free agency. Having a first round pick go first contract and out wasn't Polian's style, either here in Buffalo or with Indy.

[Lurker]

Since 1990, the Bills have used six first round picks on CBs (Williams, Thomas Smith, Burris, Winfield, Clements, McKelvin), and three first round picks on QBs (Johnson, Bledsoe, Losman). During that same span, the Colts used only one first round pick on a CB (Marlin Jackson) and two first round picks on the QB position (Jeff George and Peyton Manning).

So, to get back to the gist of your original post...how many of the 'glory years' stars do you feel would've stayed with the Bills following their rookie contract if the current FA system had been in place back then?

[Orton's Arm]

So, to get back to the gist of your original post...how many of the 'glory years' stars do you feel would've stayed with the Bills following their rookie contract if the current FA system had been in place back then?

Considering that Polian was running the Bills back then, and is running the Colts right now, yours is a fairly easy question to answer. Is first contract and out something you think about when you think about Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Jeff Saturday, or the other building blocks of that team? Can you name me even one Polian-era Colts player who, despite being very successful, was allowed to hit free agency in the prime of his career?

[ganesh]

Free agency has changed things. But the Bills have always signed guys back that are quality players on and off the field.

Jackson is another example. Now Buffalo will not over pay for talent. Greer case in point, Winfield, Clements, and Jennings all come to mind right now. These guys were all good players but not worth what they got paid.

 

They did over pay Kelsay a second contract

 

They also signed Peerless PRice to a 8M contract second time around.

[Stussy109]

The Bills have not let any players that good get away after their 1st contract.

 

except for Winfield, and technically Pat Williams.