Orton's Arm Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 In one or two recent discussions I've seen, I've been surprised by many fans' willingness to accept the idea of using a first round pick on a guy you know will leave after his first contract is over. I don't think a lot of people realize exactly how damaging it is when you don't hold onto your first round picks beyond their first contracts. So I decided to take a look at what would have happened, had some of our other first round picks left the team after giving us five years. Jim Ritcher would have left after the 1984 season. Jim Kelly would have left after the '89 season. Bruce Smith would have been gone after '89. Suppose some of our other draft picks had gone five years and out: Fred Smerlas would have left after the '83 season Darryl Talley would have left after the '87 season Frank Reich would have been gone after '89 Andre Reed would have been gone after '89 Had the Bills allowed their most successful draft picks to go first contract and out, it's very unlikely that they would have made it to even one Super Bowl in the early '90s; let alone four in a row. Letting our most successful draft picks go first contract and out would have been a terrible idea back in the '80s, and it hasn't gotten any smarter since then. Any time you have a first round pick, your goal should be to find a long-term building block; not some CB who's going to go first contract and out. If you're not rigorously pursuing long-term building blocks for your team, you're setting that team up for mediocrity over the long haul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flbillsfan#1 Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 In one or two recent discussions I've seen, I've been surprised by many fans' willingness to accept the idea of using a first round pick on a guy you know will leave after his first contract is over. I don't think a lot of people realize exactly how damaging it is when you don't hold onto your first round picks beyond their first contracts. So I decided to take a look at what would have happened, had some of our other first round picks left the team after giving us five years.Jim Ritcher would have left after the 1984 season. Jim Kelly would have left after the '89 season. Bruce Smith would have been gone after '89. Suppose some of our other draft picks had gone five years and out: Fred Smerlas would have left after the '83 season Darryl Talley would have left after the '87 season Frank Reich would have been gone after '89 Andre Reed would have been gone after '89 Had the Bills allowed their most successful draft picks to go first contract and out, it's very unlikely that they would have made it to even one Super Bowl in the early '90s; let alone four in a row. Letting our most successful draft picks go first contract and out would have been a terrible idea back in the '80s, and it hasn't gotten any smarter since then. Any time you have a first round pick, your goal should be to find a long-term building block; not some CB who's going to go first contract and out. If you're not rigorously pursuing long-term building blocks for your team, you're setting that team up for mediocrity over the long haul. The Bills have not let any players that good get away after their 1st contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 The Bills have not let any players that good get away after their 1st contract. What he said.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVUFootball29 Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 slow day? You and Skooby should set up a playdate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
todd Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 Free agency didn't start until 1993. Because your example uses players who didn't have free agency as an option, your argument is useless. In one or two recent discussions I've seen, I've been surprised by many fans' willingness to accept the idea of using a first round pick on a guy you know will leave after his first contract is over. I don't think a lot of people realize exactly how damaging it is when you don't hold onto your first round picks beyond their first contracts. So I decided to take a look at what would have happened, had some of our other first round picks left the team after giving us five years.Jim Ritcher would have left after the 1984 season. Jim Kelly would have left after the '89 season. Bruce Smith would have been gone after '89. Suppose some of our other draft picks had gone five years and out: Fred Smerlas would have left after the '83 season Darryl Talley would have left after the '87 season Frank Reich would have been gone after '89 Andre Reed would have been gone after '89 Had the Bills allowed their most successful draft picks to go first contract and out, it's very unlikely that they would have made it to even one Super Bowl in the early '90s; let alone four in a row. Letting our most successful draft picks go first contract and out would have been a terrible idea back in the '80s, and it hasn't gotten any smarter since then. Any time you have a first round pick, your goal should be to find a long-term building block; not some CB who's going to go first contract and out. If you're not rigorously pursuing long-term building blocks for your team, you're setting that team up for mediocrity over the long haul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 In one or two recent discussions I've seen, Had the Bills allowed their most successful draft picks to go first contract and out, it's very unlikely that they would have made it to even one Super Bowl in the early '90s; let alone four in a row. Letting our most successful draft picks go first contract and out would have been a terrible idea back in the '80s, and it hasn't gotten any smarter since then. Any time you have a first round pick, your goal should be to find a long-term building block; not some CB who's going to go first contract and out. If you're not rigorously pursuing long-term building blocks for your team, you're setting that team up for mediocrity over the long haul. Nice rant...except there was no FA in those days, hence no economic decision to make about keeping a guy under contract with $$$ proportional to his production/team value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 Free agency didn't start until 1993. Because your example uses players who didn't have free agency as an option, your argument is useless. It is three and a half times as good as your argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 Free agency didn't start until 1993. Because your example uses players who didn't have free agency as an option, your argument is useless. This is par for the course for the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 Free agency has changed things. But the Bills have always signed guys back that are quality players on and off the field. Jackson is another example. Now Buffalo will not over pay for talent. Greer case in point, Winfield, Clements, and Jennings all come to mind right now. These guys were all good players but not worth what they got paid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteamRoller67 Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 In one or two recent discussions I've seen, I've been surprised by many fans' willingness to accept the idea of using a first round pick on a guy you know will leave after his first contract is over. I don't think a lot of people realize exactly how damaging it is when you don't hold onto your first round picks beyond their first contracts. So I decided to take a look at what would have happened, had some of our other first round picks left the team after giving us five years. Is there a draft publication that I don't know about? Is there a scientific way to pry this info from a draft prospect? Where in the combine questioning sequence does the "do you plan on leaving after your rookie contract expires?" question come up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperKillerRobots Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 Is there a draft publication that I don't know about? Is there a scientific way to pry this info from a draft prospect?Where in the combine questioning sequence does the "do you plan on leaving after your rookie contract expires?" question come up.... Come on man, don't you know? It's right after the "do you shoot people while you're not playing football" question and right before the "how many pro bowls can you guarantee making in your career" question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
todd Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 It is three and a half times as good as your argument. Um, right. If he makes no valid point, there is no argument. There is no position to refute. It really isn't that difficult of a concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 Um, right. If he makes no valid point, there is no argument. There is no position to refute. It really isn't that difficult of a concept. If it isn't three and a half times as good as your argument then there must be an error somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CFLstyle Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 The Bills have not let any players that good get away after their 1st contract. I'm pretty sure Nate Clements would go under that category...he was an elite football player when we left him go, one of the best of his position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 slow day? You and Skooby should set up a playdate :beer: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 If it isn't three and a half times as good as your argument then there must be an error somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvermike Posted May 14, 2009 Share Posted May 14, 2009 So let's see, how often do we keep top picks lately? 2001: Nate Clements - Franchised, lost; Schobel - extended; Henry - extended, traded; 2002: Mike Williams - cut; Josh Reed - extended; Ryan Denney - extended 2003: Willis McGahee - traded; Chris Kelsay - extended; 2004: Evans extended; Losman - left in disgrace 2005: Parrish extended; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted May 14, 2009 Share Posted May 14, 2009 I'm pretty sure Nate Clements would go under that category...he was an elite football player when we left him go, one of the best of his position. Did they ever extend/re-sign Winfield? I'd say he is certainly in this class, or very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted May 14, 2009 Share Posted May 14, 2009 Did they ever extend/re-sign Winfield? I'd say he is certainly in this class, or very close. Winfield, Burress, T. Smith and Clements were members of the first round defensive back merry go round. All things point to Whitner being next to climb aboard. As far as other positions, the best players on the Bills since the superbowl era seem to be primarily UFAs. TKO, Bryce Paup, and Speilmann come to mind. Cowart was a nice draft pick and a potential star, but he got hurt, as did the guys I mentioned. When you start at 1993, most of our first round picks have been wasted on transitory defensive backs and busts. And, our record reflects as much. Of course, it's fun to pretend that this isn't the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted May 14, 2009 Share Posted May 14, 2009 Winfield, Burress, T. Smith and Clements were members of the first round defensive back merry go round. All things point to Whitner being next to climb aboard. As far as other positions, the best players on the Bills since the superbowl era seem to be primarily UFAs. TKO, Bryce Paup, and Speilmann come to mind. Cowart was a nice draft pick and a potential star, but he got hurt, as did the guys I mentioned. When you start at 1993, most of our first round picks have been wasted on transitory defensive backs and busts. And, our record reflects as much. Of course, it's fun to pretend that this isn't the case. I believe the transitory nature of the Bills first round picks has to do with the Bills FO, and their reluctance to re-sign the players before they become FAs, and then refuse to get into an FA bidding war with other teams. That they happen to be talented DBs is coincidental. I firmly believe that, had they been successful DTs or LTs, the results (the player leaving after the 1st contract) would remain the same. Of course, Evans is one recent 1st rounder that the Bills decided to re-sign early...but he remains an exception to the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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