Ask Tim Graham, version 2.0

[mob16151]

There are myriad wrinkles to the Wildcat. While it might look like the same play, there are many variations. Sometimes it's a standard O-line, sometimes unbalanced. Sometimes the QB is split wide, sometimes not on the field at all. Sometimes Brown takes the snap, sometimes Williams. Then there are the plays Pat White is on the field. Those technically aren't from the Wildcat package, but it's a similar concept.

 

They pass out of it quite frequently, usually at least once a game. Brown, Williams, White, Henne ... Any of them can throw, and will.

 

There are so many reasons the Wildcat is effective, but the aspects I find trickiest are the precision and the uniqueness. Williams is almost in a full sprint when he goes in motion. The timing is so exact that when the direct snap goes to Brown, defenses have to freeze to see if Williams is going to get the ball and hit the corner at full speed. That's tough to stop when you're at a standstill. If not, then Williams might dive inside or roll out for a pass. That might sound simple from your couch, but it's a brain cramping two seconds for the defense. The second aspect is that the Dolphins run it so well, there's no way your scout team can replicate it in practice.

 

Gregg Williams and Rex Ryan seem like they figured it out the past two weeks, but the Dolphins have had new wrinkles that keep the Wildcat dangerous. People thought it was dead when the Patriots stopped it last year.

 

So just random curiousity but do you think a defense that was like 4 down lineman,4 linebackers and 3 db's would be effective against the wildcat? It just seems suprising that no team has figured out a specific package to trot out when they see certain personell groupings from miami.

[Haven Moses]

Timbo,

 

What up?

[BillnutinHouston]

Tim, do you know if any of your colleagues has done a research piece on the frequency of injuries on teams with "Tampa 2" schemes vs. other defenses? Intuitively it seems that smaller, quicker players that epitomize the "Tampa 2" scheme might go down at a higher rate than their larger counterparts. This might make for an interesting article someday.

 

Thanks

[Haven Moses]

Timbo,

 

Is there any hope? Please tell us something positive.

[vincec]

There are myriad wrinkles to the Wildcat. While it might look like the same play, there are many variations. Sometimes it's a standard O-line, sometimes unbalanced. Sometimes the QB is split wide, sometimes not on the field at all. Sometimes Brown takes the snap, sometimes Williams. Then there are the plays Pat White is on the field. Those technically aren't from the Wildcat package, but it's a similar concept.

 

They pass out of it quite frequently, usually at least once a game. Brown, Williams, White, Henne ... Any of them can throw, and will.

 

There are so many reasons the Wildcat is effective, but the aspects I find trickiest are the precision and the uniqueness. Williams is almost in a full sprint when he goes in motion. The timing is so exact that when the direct snap goes to Brown, defenses have to freeze to see if Williams is going to get the ball and hit the corner at full speed. That's tough to stop when you're at a standstill. If not, then Williams might dive inside or roll out for a pass. That might sound simple from your couch, but it's a brain cramping two seconds for the defense. The second aspect is that the Dolphins run it so well, there's no way your scout team can replicate it in practice.

 

Gregg Williams and Rex Ryan seem like they figured it out the past two weeks, but the Dolphins have had new wrinkles that keep the Wildcat dangerous. People thought it was dead when the Patriots stopped it last year.

You missed another key reason that Miami is effective with the Wildcat: they have two very good running backs and a very physical offensive line.

[TimGraham]

Tim, do you know if any of your colleagues has done a research piece on the frequency of injuries on teams with "Tampa 2" schemes vs. other defenses? Intuitively it seems that smaller, quicker players that epitomize the "Tampa 2" scheme might go down at a higher rate than their larger counterparts. This might make for an interesting article someday.

 

Thanks

 

I don't know of anything research that's been done. Interesting thought.

 

The Bills have plenty of injuries that have nothing to do with their defensive front seven.

 

The units that are banged up the most are the offensive line and the secondary. I don't think Buffalo's defensive backs are significantly smaller than a non-Tampa 2 team.

[TimGraham]

You missed another key reason that Miami is effective with the Wildcat: they have two very good running backs and a very physical offensive line.

 

Sure, it helps.

 

But a lot of teams have two good running backs and a physical offensive line (the Jets, for example), but they can't run it.

[Lori]

I don't know of anything research that's been done. Interesting thought.

 

The Bills have plenty of injuries that have nothing to do with their defensive front seven.

 

The units that are banged up the most are the offensive line and the secondary. I don't think Buffalo's defensive backs are significantly smaller than a non-Tampa 2 team.

Think they might be looking at LB, where now that Ellison's dinged, all three starters plus Buggs have missed time. Can't say the size factor would mean anything in either Poz's or Kawika's case, but it might have in the other two. Suppose one could also argue that the injuries at S stem from run-support issues, but I'd have to go back and look at the specific plays where they happened.

 

Is an intriguing idea, though.

[Bufcomments]

Tim

 

Thanks for the video in your ESPN blog about Oher.

 

You said what everybody is thinking in WNY.

 

They had a chance to pick Oher, at a position of need no less and they choose an undersized DE that has done nothing for them this year.

 

If Ralph doesn't fire Modrak and Guy for that, on top of that the last Ten years of them drafting he is not as smart as I thought he is.

[Buddo]

Tim

 

Thanks for the video in your ESPN blog about Oher.

 

You said what everybody is thinking in WNY.

 

They had a chance to pick Oher, at a position of need no less and they choose an undersized DE that has done nothing for them this year.

 

If Ralph doesn't fire Modrak and Guy for that, on top of that the last Ten years of them drafting he is not as smart as I thought he is.

 

The problem with that, is that it is likely to be as much on the HC's wishes, regarding picks, as anything else.

The thing that is more bothersome about it to me, is that with the addition of Sanders as a line coach, the play of Kelsay etc. has been elevated to the extent that Maybin is hardly getting on the field. While hindsight is 20/20, it made far more sense to select a tackle, when you were totally dismantling the o-line, especially when there was a good one available. No disrespect to Maybin, but how much better would the Bills draft (and play) look, if Oher had been taken instead of Maybin, and the rest of the draft for the Bills, as is?

So far, 3 out of the 4 top picks the Bills had, are starters. Nelson will be one, sooner rather than later, I feel. If Oher had been the pick @ 11, the Bills would have got 5 starters, from their picks. While it's easy to criticise Modrak for previous failures, more recently, it would appear he's getting more right than wrong.

If you want someone's head from the FO personnel wise, I think where you should be aiming is at Guy.

For all he's had some recent success with Stroud, and this year Florence, I would think his hits/misses ratio is way too skewed on the 'misses' side.

[vincec]

Sure, it helps.

 

But a lot of teams have two good running backs and a physical offensive line (the Jets, for example), but they can't run it.

The Jests are averaging 4.8 ypc, #4 in the NFL. Miami is #8 at 4.5. Also, I wouldn't put Thomas Jones in either Ricky Williams or Ronny Brown's class.

[Bufcomments]

The problem with that, is that it is likely to be as much on the HC's wishes, regarding picks, as anything else.

The thing that is more bothersome about it to me, is that with the addition of Sanders as a line coach, the play of Kelsay etc. has been elevated to the extent that Maybin is hardly getting on the field. While hindsight is 20/20, it made far more sense to select a tackle, when you were totally dismantling the o-line, especially when there was a good one available. No disrespect to Maybin, but how much better would the Bills draft (and play) look, if Oher had been taken instead of Maybin, and the rest of the draft for the Bills, as is?

So far, 3 out of the 4 top picks the Bills had, are starters. Nelson will be one, sooner rather than later, I feel. If Oher had been the pick @ 11, the Bills would have got 5 starters, from their picks. While it's easy to criticise Modrak for previous failures, more recently, it would appear he's getting more right than wrong.

If you want someone's head from the FO personnel wise, I think where you should be aiming is at Guy.

For all he's had some recent success with Stroud, and this year Florence, I would think his hits/misses ratio is way too skewed on the 'misses' side.

I agree, we had a very good draft this year Wood, Byrd, Nelson are solid picks. Maybe Levitre, time will tell.

 

But to pass up on a blue chip tackle when you needed one has set this team back a year. Maybe if you draft Oher you still have Walker at RT and just maybe you have a semi OK O-line.

 

Oher, Levitre, Wood, Bulter and Walker would have been an upgrade than what we have now.

[BillnutinHouston]

I agree, we had a very good draft this year Wood, Byrd, Nelson are solid picks. Maybe Levitre, time will tell.

 

But to pass up on a blue chip tackle when you needed one has set this team back a year. Maybe if you draft Oher you still have Walker at RT and just maybe you have a semi OK O-line.

 

Oher, Levitre, Wood, Bulter and Walker would have been an upgrade than what we have now.

 

Its amazing to me that with Jonathan Scott being out today for personal reasons, the Bills enter the game with only TWO healthy tackles, one of them being, ahem, kirk Chambers. It blows my mind.

[BuffaloWings]

Tim,

 

Based on Vic Carucci's chat from Friday saying he thinks the Bills will be making big changes to the organization, when would you anticipate this starts? Many of us on this board feel that Dick Jauron won't be let go until the season is over, but I wouldn't mind having that start any time now - at least telling the fans and the rest of the team/organization that the performances under Jauron's watch are unacceptable. I wouldn't expect whoever is the interim coach to run the team to the playoffs and I realize it wouldn't be anyone from the outside.

 

I know there have been some teams that fired their coach during the season (usually with about 2-3 games to go), but not necessarily the front office. Is there a precedent for this? How do you anticipate the situation playing out with the coaching staff and front office personnel?

 

Many thanks again!

[TimGraham]

The Jests are averaging 4.8 ypc, #4 in the NFL. Miami is #8 at 4.5. Also, I wouldn't put Thomas Jones in either Ricky Williams or Ronny Brown's class.

 

They're different types of backs.

 

I also wouldn't put the Dolphins' O-line in the Jets' class.

[TimGraham]

Its amazing to me that with Jonathan Scott being out today for personal reasons, the Bills enter the game with only TWO healthy tackles, one of them being, ahem, kirk Chambers. It blows my mind.

 

That's almost as stunning as Belichick's decision Sunday night.

[TimGraham]

Tim

 

Thanks for the video in your ESPN blog about Oher.

 

You said what everybody is thinking in WNY.

 

They had a chance to pick Oher, at a position of need no less and they choose an undersized DE that has done nothing for them this year.

 

If Ralph doesn't fire Modrak and Guy for that, on top of that the last Ten years of them drafting he is not as smart as I thought he is.

 

Glad you liked it. There were a couple more points I wanted to hammer home, but it's hard to talk for two minutes straight unscripted. The real ESPN reporters get video and interviews to splice in there. They need to stand in front of the camera and talk for maybe 15 seconds at a pop. They record those snippets and edit them all together.

 

Anyway, I appreciate the feedback. The quality should improve as I get more used to the process. I have to do all of the production. I don't get a producer, a sound man and a camera man like the big shots do.

[GG]

That's almost as stunning as Belichick's decision Sunday night.

 

Good to see it worked out well for both coaches.

[Lori]

Glad you liked it. There were a couple more points I wanted to hammer home, but it's hard to talk for two minutes straight unscripted. The real ESPN reporters get video and interviews to splice in there. They need to stand in front of the camera and talk for maybe 15 seconds at a pop. They record those snippets and edit them all together.

 

Anyway, I appreciate the feedback. The quality should improve as I get more used to the process. I have to do all of the production. I don't get a producer, a sound man and a camera man like the big shots do.

A work in progress, but it's still a cool addition. Since I've seen a couple of the other guys start doing them as well, I'm assuming this will now be a semi-regular feature?

 

And if you haven't had a chance to catch up, DBell might be gone for a while, maybe the rest of the year. They HAVE to bring someone else in at T now, don't they?

[Tortured Soul]

Glad you liked it. There were a couple more points I wanted to hammer home, but it's hard to talk for two minutes straight unscripted. The real ESPN reporters get video and interviews to splice in there. They need to stand in front of the camera and talk for maybe 15 seconds at a pop. They record those snippets and edit them all together.

 

Anyway, I appreciate the feedback. The quality should improve as I get more used to the process. I have to do all of the production. I don't get a producer, a sound man and a camera man like the big shots do.

I posted this in the comments section on the blog post. I know you can't respond to all the comments there, especially on a Friday before a football weekend, but I am curious about your thoughts:

 

I was wondering what you think about what Gregg Easterbrook had to say about Oher in this week's TMQ: "Right now, rookie left tackle Michael Oher looks terrible." Are he and Peter King watching the same player? Whom do you believe?