Anyone into stocks?

[Stussy109]

Its been my darling trading in and out numerous times, and is a large long term position of mine at 5$/shr. perfect example of opportunity in a crappy oversold market.

[KD in CA]

What do you like about them? Casino stocks seem risky to me.

 

I'm getting nervous that we're headed for a retreat in the market very soon. Might be time to pull back on a couple things.

[Stussy109]

What do you like about them? Casino stocks seem risky to me.

 

I'm getting nervous that we're headed for a retreat in the market very soon. Might be time to pull back on a couple things.

 

some things are possibly worth a sell in the short term, but u risk missing the big leg up. i think the worst of the market is behind us. I like BYD because they have cash on hand, and are a possible takeover target themselves.

[Magox]

some things are possibly worth a sell in the short term, but u risk missing the big leg up. i think the worst of the market is behind us. I like BYD because they have cash on hand, and are a possible takeover target themselves.

The worst probably is behind us, but I believe what most investors are failing to do is readjusting their expectations of how life is going to look after the bottom.

 

1) Savings from a personal household level are increasing, which in turn means less spending, specially on luxary items and services.

 

2) National Debt is rising dramatically, which means higher taxes in the future.

 

3) Unemployment is still rising, and I expect the rate of unemployment will slow down, but will not rebound sharply any time soon on a sustained basis.

 

4) Credit extension is severely damaged, due to toxic assets that banks are still holding which is detering them from further lending, and the real economy is still ailing which will contribute to a muted extension of credit. Remember, this country grows as we lend more. The more we lend the more we grow, and that model will be forever changed.

 

5) Inflation is going to be a major issue because of the massive expansion of the federal reserve's balance sheet. If all this newly created money does not cause inflation, it will be the first time in the history of fiat money that inflation has not resulted. Based on the lessons of history, I would not bet against it.

Inflation will be the canary in the coal mine. Inflation is insideous, it causes revolutions in third world countries, it affects every single human being on this earth. It makes the standard of living more difficult to cope with, and it affects companies and corporations bottom line.

 

In regards to their being a continued market rally, I don't doubt that it could happen. If you print trillions of dollars, things have to go up on a temporary basis. Right now there is a sense of optimism, one based on hope and the creation of money out of thin air. I wouldn't be surprised to see the market rally another %20 within the next year, of course I wouldn't be surprised if it went down another %20 as well.

 

If you are going to bet on a recovery, and you want to stay in stocks, which I would not advise, unless you have the ability to trade effectively. I would purchase stocks that have lots of cash, and that produce commodities.

 

Commodities will go up!

 

I gaurantee it!

[BuffaloBill]

Its been my darling trading in and out numerous times, and is a large long term position of mine at 5$/shr. perfect example of opportunity in a crappy oversold market.

PENN has been on a similiar uptick since crossing its 200day moving average - neither is great from a fundamentals standpoint but Penn is stronger. I agree that if you are day or short time trading it BYD's prce swings are far more attractive for that kind of action. I have been way too busy here at the office to do any day / short term trading.

 

I've been in a handful of long positions and will probably add to them patiently. I am halfway expecting another decent run up once we get past earnings season. We will just have to see if money starts moving back into the market in any significant way. For what it is worth (not much BTW) I am very bullish on Chinese stocks.

[Stussy109]

The worst probably is behind us, but I believe what most investors are failing to do is readjusting their expectations of how life is going to look after the bottom.

 

1) Savings from a personal household level are increasing, which in turn means less spending, specially on luxary items and services.

 

2) National Debt is rising dramatically, which means higher taxes in the future.

 

3) Unemployment is still rising, and I expect the rate of unemployment will slow down, but will not rebound sharply any time soon on a sustained basis.

 

4) Credit extension is severely damaged, due to toxic assets that banks are still holding which is detering them from further lending, and the real economy is still ailing which will contribute to a muted extension of credit. Remember, this country grows as we lend more. The more we lend the more we grow, and that model will be forever changed.

 

5) Inflation is going to be a major issue because of the massive expansion of the federal reserve's balance sheet. If all this newly created money does not cause inflation, it will be the first time in the history of fiat money that inflation has not resulted. Based on the lessons of history, I would not bet against it.

Inflation will be the canary in the coal mine. Inflation is insideous, it causes revolutions in third world countries, it affects every single human being on this earth. It makes the standard of living more difficult to cope with, and it affects companies and corporations bottom line.

 

In regards to their being a continued market rally, I don't doubt that it could happen. If you print trillions of dollars, things have to go up on a temporary basis. Right now there is a sense of optimism, one based on hope and the creation of money out of thin air. I wouldn't be surprised to see the market rally another %20 within the next year, of course I wouldn't be surprised if it went down another %20 as well.

 

If you are going to bet on a recovery, and you want to stay in stocks, which I would not advise, unless you have the ability to trade effectively. I would purchase stocks that have lots of cash, and that produce commodities.

 

Commodities will go up!

 

I gaurantee it!

 

 

Actually believe it or not, the money being pumped into the economy is not just "printed." it is sold in the form of T-Bills and Bonds, long and short term debt. Our #1 buyer is the Chinese. In the longhaul, taking on debt is deflationary. Every dollar printed has to be paid back with interest. For example, every 1$ being pumped into the market now means $1.25 (just making up a number) being paid back to the bond holders in the future. It is inflationary in the short term, deflationary in the long term. But this is the reason why I picked up some gold and platinum.

[Justice]

some things are possibly worth a sell in the short term, but u risk missing the big leg up. i think the worst of the market is behind us. I like BYD because they have cash on hand, and are a possible takeover target themselves.

 

 

You should have bought into LVS and MGM as well. They have done very well recently.

[Magox]

Actually believe it or not, the money being pumped into the economy is not just "printed." it is sold in the form of T-Bills and Bonds, long and short term debt. Our #1 buyer is the Chinese. In the longhaul, taking on debt is deflationary. Every dollar printed has to be paid back with interest. For example, every 1$ being pumped into the market now means $1.25 (just making up a number) being paid back to the bond holders in the future. It is inflationary in the short term, deflationary in the long term. But this is the reason why I picked up some gold and platinum.

No sir!

 

That is not entirely correct. The federal reserve announced purchases of $300 billion in government debt (treasuries), along with another purchase of $750 billion in mortgage-backed securities on top of the already-announced $500 billion program a few months earlier. Not one penny of this money was used from foreign investment through purchases. This is what they call "expansion of the feds balance sheet". So yes, It is being "printed" and at a massive level.

 

The money that comes from the Federal reserve is money for the most part that is printed. Money that comes from the treasury is generated through taxes and treasuries. Two totally different things. We are piling up tremendous debt, and yes the more debt we pile up, the more deflationary it can be. But at the same time we are expanding the federal reserve's balance sheet at a pace that we have never seen before which is hyper inflationary.

 

 

It is true that the chinese are funding over $740 Billion dollars through treasuries, but none of that is being used for what I had mentioned earlier. It is being used to fund our stimulus and other government spending projects.

 

The Chinese feel as if they are being held as a hostage through out this crisis. They are not able to pull out of their investments that they have with us, because they know that would severely hurt themselves. They are very concerned with their treasury investments that they have with us, since it is all denominated in US dollars. They have all ready called on for their to be another world reserve currency. Even though this is not realistic in the short term, it is a reflection of the fears that they have. They believe that the value of the US dollar could be at risk of a severe downturn.

 

The chinese are all ready starting to take measures in lessening their reliance of the dollar.

 

Here is something that I found that I think is interesting:

 

Facing a precipitous slide in exports and tens of millions of unemployed migrants, China is hoping to lubricate financing for emerging markets to buy its goods, in the process symbolically raising the yuan's profile on the global economic stage.

 

In the first such move involving a Latin American country, China struck a 70 billion yuan ($10.2 billion) currency swap agreement with Argentina that would allow the latter to put in yuan-denominated orders for Chinese imports and thereby avoid using the U.S. dollar in bilateral trade. Analysts expect China to pursue more bilateral currency swaps with emerging markets in order to give a boost to its ailing export sector.

 

The agreement with Argentina marked China's sixth bilateral currency swap. Beijing extended a 100 billion yuan ($14.6 billion) swap line to Indonesia last week and a 20 billion yuan ($2.9 billion) swap line to Belarus earlier this month. China has also reached swap arrangements with South Korea, Malaysia and Hong Kong. The swaps, totaling 650 billion yuan ($95.1 billion), will last for three years.

 

Alternative yuan funding for trade with China could help ease the demand for U.S. dollars for other imports, an effect that would particularly benefit South Korea and Indonesia, which have faced dollar shortages, a Citi note observed Tuesday. "We expect more agreements with other emerging market countries will be in the pipeline," as the swaps will help "Chinese slumping exports by making access to finance easier," it said.

 

 

Argentina gets more access to foreign currency reserves, which is useful in case it encounters a balance of payments bottleneck. The peso has weakened in the course of the global financial crisis, as terms of trade move against the country's primary exports. China, a big importer of Argentine soybeans, is Argentina's second-largest trading partner; bilateral trade amounted to $965 million in February. The agreement with China was announced Monday in Medellin, Colombia, by China's central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, who recently made headlines when he called for a replacement of the dollar as the global reserve currency of choice. Argentina was not part of the U.S. Federal Reserve's program last year to extend $30 billion swap lines to emerging markets, including Brazil and Mexico.

 

The yuan has the "greatest potential" and "a significant role to play in the current redesign of the international monetary system,” Argentina’s central bank said Monday. China has sought to assert a greater voice in international financial affairs in preparation for Thursday's summit of G20 countries, expressing concern about the U.S. dollar's weakness as a consequence of Washington's spending binge, prompting U.S. President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to go on the defensive last week.

Since the yuan is not fully convertible, the swap lines will not be of much help for most central banks in stabilizing their currencies. But, "in the longer term, we think it is China’s strategic economic and political interest to promote the broader use or internationalization of CNY," the Citi note concluded. "While the internationalization of CNY has a very long way to go, we see China as using the global crisis as an opportunity to take early steps."

[theNose76]

You should have bought into LVS and MGM as well. They have done very well recently.

Thanks for the shoutout - I work for MGM. I am in the finance side, but more so with respect to operations on property, don't deal with the corporate "mess" we have now. But I am very happy with this latest news nugget: http://www.lvrj.com/business/44016137.html - hopefully that will bump up the price a bit and we can start to dig ourselves out a little, since the cloud around that project was growing by the day.

 

Amazing to look at the chart and see the highs near 100 in late 07, and then the low of I think it was 1.89 in early March. So mid 6's is a pretty good comeback. Unfortunately I don't have any "inside" info on ours or other gaming/casino stocks, but as you can see in their historical performance when the overall economy is doing well, they do really well. I know a number of friends and colleagues who have been gobbling up some shares when it was in the 2-3 range. With respect to Boyd, the big hinge for them is how their Echelon project pans out. They were pouring money and resources into its development and construction but halted last summer in order to save cash. Since the credit market/ economy has gotten much worse since, it will be interesting to see what they do long term with that land. That does leave them with some cash in the short term that they can float to buy some other pieces at a cheap price, perhaps.

 

I will say that we are doing everything imaginable to cut costs, since the top line is just not there and probably won't be for at least 9-12 months. Aside from the stock, now and the next few months continues to be a great time to visit Las Vegas. Everything is becoming very cheap as all of the hotels need to discount to drive business, traffic, and some kind of revenue. THat should continue for a while, unfortunately for those of us who are in the middle of it!