Just Jack Posted November 4, 2004 Share Posted November 4, 2004 If during the counting of the OH provisionals, Kerry does get the amount of votes he needed to win the state (somewhere between 80%-93% is what I've heard), would they change the Electorial count even though he's already conceded? I'm thinking they won't because he's already conceded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCgirl Posted November 4, 2004 Share Posted November 4, 2004 No I think he would then be elected. The electoral college is what matters - not what candidates say. But of course, I think the reason Kerry conceded was that he realized it was mathematically impossible to win. He would have had to win 80-93% IF all of the provisional ballots in Ohio are valid (which they won't be). Also this is somewhat dumb to hinge everything on Ohio because Kerry won Pennsylvania by the same margin (and number of votes - 130,000) that Bush won Ohio and yet the networks all easily called Pennsylvania for Kerry without counting the "provisional ballots." I think they just didn't call Ohio because it was basically the last swing state Bush needed to win. Edited to add: Also, I heard only 26,000 of the provisional ballots came from Cleveland - most of the others came from the Republican precincts - another factor that Kerry probably considered in deciding to concede. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted November 4, 2004 Share Posted November 4, 2004 I'd add that provisional ballots are just that. A portion of them are invalid for numerous reasons, so the number of ballots will be diminished. They are only cast if they are legitimate, so a quoted gross figure will be reduced. Ohio has had laws for a good number of years regarding provisionals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lori Posted November 4, 2004 Share Posted November 4, 2004 If during the counting of the OH provisionals, Kerry does get the amount of votes he needed to win the state (somewhere between 80%-93% is what I've heard), would they change the Electorial count even though he's already conceded? I'm thinking they won't because he's already conceded. 101282[/snapback] As I posted Tuesday night - even if there's statistically no chance for absentee ballots to change the outcome of a race, the votes still get counted. Part of the job. I don't think we even HAD provisional ballots back when I was working the polls, at least I don't remember anyone ever coming in and asking for one, but I imagine similar rules would apply to any provisional ballots proven valid. And if Kerry ends up with more votes, he still wins... remember, Gore DID make a congratulatory call to Bush in 2000, then retracted it later. But do the math... 80% is too low. The latest CNN numbers show Bush with a 136,483-vote lead. According to the OH Secretary of State, a total of 155,337 provisional ballots were cast. If every single one of those ballots is accepted, Kerry would need 145,910 of those just to break even. That's 93.9%. And if any of those ballots are thrown out, the percentage Kerry would need would only go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Jack Posted November 4, 2004 Author Share Posted November 4, 2004 I thought it had to be higher than 80%, even 90%. I had heard one person at work say 80%, meanwhile on ABC they were saying 93%. And they did mention that not all the current provisionals would be accepted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berg Posted November 4, 2004 Share Posted November 4, 2004 As I posted Tuesday night - even if there's statistically no chance for absentee ballots to change the outcome of a race, the votes still get counted. Part of the job. I don't think we even HAD provisional ballots back when I was working the polls, at least I don't remember anyone ever coming in and asking for one, but I imagine similar rules would apply to any provisional ballots proven valid. And if Kerry ends up with more votes, he still wins... remember, Gore DID make a congratulatory call to Bush in 2000, then retracted it later. But do the math... 80% is too low. The latest CNN numbers show Bush with a 136,483-vote lead. According to the OH Secretary of State, a total of 155,337 provisional ballots were cast. If every single one of those ballots is accepted, Kerry would need 145,910 of those just to break even. That's 93.9%. And if any of those ballots are thrown out, the percentage Kerry would need would only go up. 101334[/snapback] Lori, From what I understand (I think it came from CNN), Provisional ballots are ONLY counted if there is a need (no clue how they determine that). But, they are handled differently from absentee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted November 4, 2004 Share Posted November 4, 2004 No I think he would then be elected. The electoral college is what matters - not what candidates say. But of course, I think the reason Kerry conceded was that he realized it was mathematically impossible to win. He would have had to win 80-93% IF all of the provisional ballots in Ohio are valid (which they won't be). Also this is somewhat dumb to hinge everything on Ohio because Kerry won Pennsylvania by the same margin (and number of votes - 130,000) that Bush won Ohio and yet the networks all easily called Pennsylvania for Kerry without counting the "provisional ballots." I think they just didn't call Ohio because it was basically the last swing state Bush needed to win. Edited to add: Also, I heard only 26,000 of the provisional ballots came from Cleveland - most of the others came from the Republican precincts - another factor that Kerry probably considered in deciding to concede. 101319[/snapback] People were standing in line for over 10 hours to vote in Ohio and were still voting after midnight. That was not the case in Pa. Further, the general perception is that provisionals favor mostly democrats as they are usually the result of a person moving their residence a lot which is more typical of young people and the urban poor both of which went strongly for Kerry. The provisionals in Pa were not likely to favor Bush but instead Kerry would be expected to improve his share. The problem was that no one knew how many provisionals there were so no one could do anything but guess as to whether there was a chance they could help Kerry pass Bush. The republican commissioner gave a short statement where he simply said that last time out they had 135,000 and his estimate that they would have between that and 175k was nothing more than his "speculation". As soon as Kerry was told just how many provisionals there were the next day, he quickly conceded. The networks weren't being partisan, it is just that they weren't all willing to call Ohio in the face of those uncertainties. They did mention ad nauseum that Bush was the likely winner and had the strongest hand etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCgirl Posted November 4, 2004 Share Posted November 4, 2004 People were standing in line for over 10 hours to vote in Ohio and were still voting after midnight. That was not the case in Pa. Further, the general perception is that provisionals favor mostly democrats as they are usually the result of a person moving their residence a lot which is more typical of young people and the urban poor both of which went strongly for Kerry. The provisionals in Pa were not likely to favor Bush but instead Kerry would be expected to improve his share. The problem was that no one knew how many provisionals there were so no one could do anything but guess as to whether there was a chance they could help Kerry pass Bush. The republican commissioner gave a short statement where he simply said that last time out they had 135,000 and his estimate that they would have between that and 175k was nothing more than his "speculation". As soon as Kerry was told just how many provisionals there were the next day, he quickly conceded. The networks weren't being partisan, it is just that they weren't all willing to call Ohio in the face of those uncertainties. They did mention ad nauseum that Bush was the likely winner and had the strongest hand etc. 101982[/snapback] You said the provisionals in Pa "were not likely to favor Bush." I agree. Similarly, the provisionals in Ohio "were not likely" to go to Kerry at a 93% or higher rate. But the networks were being overly cautious on Ohio. Part of this is because the media is liberal and despite its best efforts - this seeps into their decisions. The other part is that Ohio decided the race whereas Pennsylvania did not at the time it was called. They didn't know how many provisionals were outstanding in Ohio but apparently, they don't know how many provisionals are outstanding in Pennsylvania either. I think there is no chance either will change the outcome, I just think it is funny that Ohio and Pennsylvania were almost identical but were treated very differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Campy Posted November 4, 2004 Share Posted November 4, 2004 If during the counting of the OH provisionals, Kerry does get the amount of votes he needed to win the state (somewhere between 80%-93% is what I've heard), would they change the Electorial count even though he's already conceded? I'm thinking they won't because he's already conceded. 101282[/snapback] If the candidate concedes, the electoral voters will oblige him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lori Posted November 4, 2004 Share Posted November 4, 2004 Lori, From what I understand (I think it came from CNN), Provisional ballots are ONLY counted if there is a need (no clue how they determine that). But, they are handled differently from absentee. 101945[/snapback] Maybe so, but the presidential race wouldn't be the only race on there. They'd still have to look at them for state and local races..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted November 4, 2004 Share Posted November 4, 2004 Maybe so, but the presidential race wouldn't be the only race on there. They'd still have to look at them for state and local races..... 102233[/snapback] Exactly so. Those ballots are investigated for validity. If valid, they are entered as cast votes, by voting district. By that (above and beyond national and state-wide offices), I mean that each County and contained municipalities have tax issues, school levies and so forth. In my county (Hamilton, OH), the Board of Elections publishes 72 different ballots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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