How good is Maybin?

[spartacus]

You may not want to hear it, but I think the one year wonder argument has some validity. Sometimes the best predictor of the future is to look to the past. I ripped that quote off of a scout regarding Robert Ayers, and it was used in a slightly different context, but its something to think about in this case, too. How many one-hit wonders at DE come into the NFL and ever have success? A few, but its rare. Add in the fact that he's undersized to his inexperience and lack of previous production and I think he carries considerable risk as an 11th overall pick.

 

The talent is certainly there, don't get me wrong, but Manny Lawson, Michael Haynes, Erasmus James and Erik Flowers and a few others that never really did much were talented one-year wonders, too. That's not to say that Maybin definitely will follow the same path, but that he carries a high degree of risk at a position that's already one of the riskiest picks to make in round one.

 

Maybin basically was a SS rushing against slow,Big 10 OTs

 

whether he did for one year or 4 - he is too small to play on the DL in the NFL

 

John Wendling would like quick rushing the passer too

 

just don;t ask him to try and stop any concerted running effort to that side of field

[appooOnU]

just don;t ask him to try and stop any concerted running effort to that side of field

 

I've always wondered why defenses in the NFL don't go often to a weakside/strong side system? I think if Maybin is allowed to play the weak-side, he'd be effective enough in helping to stop the run, because he'd only have to deal with the tackle, rather than the tackle and TE. He'd be worse than useless right now playing the strong side because he'd just get swallowed up and not put up enough of a fight to actually take up two blockers - you'd end up with a TE or T free to attack a backer.

[Thoner7]

Maybin is not physical. He is more like a blitzing DB than a DE, meaning he weighs 220 and just trys to run around the edge and avoids contact. When the tackle makes contact, Maybin was completely dominated in college, you can bet that will happen more in the NFL. I dont think you will see Maybin drafted till the end of round one and it will NOT be to a 4-3 team. Either that or the Bills take him at 11.

[BillsVet]

For a team like the Bills whose entire coaching staff's heads are on the chopping block-

 

I can't see them spending the 11th pick in the first round on a player coming out as a sophmore who will probably take a few years to develop.

 

At 11---they will take a player they feel they can plug in the starting lineup IMMEDIATELY.

 

 

Totally agree. I don't think Buffalo takes anyone who is even somewhat developmental. They need instant starters with their top 2, maybe 3 picks, because the entire organization should be riding on this draft.

 

They're going to take a guy with less upside but the ability to start as opposed to selecting someone with lots of potential who might not be ready to go from Day 1.

 

That's not the way to build a team, but if you're desperate like Buffalo, you've got to win now. What irks me is they had chances in UFA to sign players and didn't for money reasons. Now they've put so much pressure on drafting immediate starters who of course will make less.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

It's hard to comment on a guy like Maybin unless you saw him play a lot in college. There's virtually no video on the guy playing football unlike most of the other DLs.

 

For a team like the Bills whose entire coaching staff's heads are on the chopping block-

 

I can't see them spending the 11th pick in the first round on a player coming out as a sophmore who will probably take a few years to develop.

 

At 11---they will take a player they feel they can plug in the starting lineup IMMEDIATELY.

The counter argument is that he would play in all obvious passing situations and although he wouldn't be a 3 down player, still make big contributions as a situational pass rusher. What if he got 10 sacks and 20 pressures this year?

 

You may not want to hear it, but I think the one year wonder argument has some validity.

The one year wonder argument does have validity but like apoo pointed out, he was red shirted as a freshman. He played only two seasons with the last one being outstanding so it's not like he's a fifth year senior who only had one good year.

 

I'm a PSU Alum/Season Ticket holder and closely follow the program, so I have a bit of perspective on why he didn't start before.

I don't think he's a 1-year wonder because he's just getting started. He doesn't really compare to any of our past DEs at Penn State because of his body-type and playing style. Penn State usually prefers bigger, taller guys at DE like Michael Haynes and Courtney Brown. But if I had to compare him to anyone it's Dwight Freeney.

I like your post (which I've shortened) but I don't see how you compare Maybin to Freeney. Freeney is barely 6'1" and quite thick at 265-270. Maybin is 6'4" and played in the Rose Bowl at 230 pounds. Totally different body types. You must have meant something else by the comparison but I'm not sure.

[Buffaloed in Pa]

Remember Courtney Brown from Penn.St. Maybin isn`t as good.

[GOBILLS78]

Utterly manhandled in the run game. Watch film.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Utterly manhandled in the run game. Watch film.

What film?

[GOBILLS78]

What film?

 

The Penn State-USC Rose Bowl. It was replayed on ESPN the other night. It was brutal. This isn't hyperbole. It was brutal.

 

I think he'll be a great fit as an OLB in a 3-4. But I'm telling you right now, if the Bills take him and slap him at end, it will be a good three years before he does anything (unless a new coach switches to a 3-4). And by then, most will have given up on him.

[appooOnU]

The Penn State-USC Rose Bowl. It was replayed on ESPN the other night. It was brutal. This isn't hyperbole. It was brutal.

 

FWIW he played that game at 230. In passing situations he did a good job of getting pressure though. That game really shows how freakin good Sanchez and why the Lions were so dumb to give 41M to a QB who never excelled at the college level

[GOBILLS78]

FWIW he played that game at 230. In passing situations he did a good job of getting pressure though. That game really shows how freakin good Sanchez and why the Lions were so dumb to give 41M to a QB who never excelled at the college level

 

I added on to my previous post and I have no idea what FWIW means.

[Matt in KC]

I added on to my previous post and I have no idea what FWIW means.

For What It's Worth

[appooOnU]

I added on to my previous post and I have no idea what FWIW means.

Sorry "For What It's worth".

 

and yea, I'd agree with you. He'd be a rush specialist to begin his career.

[GOBILLS78]

For What It's Worth

 

 

Sorry "For What It's worth".

 

and yea, I'd agree with you. He'd be a rush specialist to begin his career.

 

 

Thanks to both of you. I suppose I could have looked it up myself, but I'm at work and should probably be on only one not-work-related Web site at a time.

[dave mcbride]

I'm a PSU Alum/Season Ticket holder and closely follow the program, so I have a bit of perspective on why he didn't start before.

 

 

Maybin is a weak-side Defensive End in the Penn State system, and going into the season we had Maurice Evans playing that position. Evans was projected by most as a top 15 pick. But around a week before the season started he got busted for smoking weed and suspended for a solid 4 games, which gave the opportunity for Maybin to start.

 

so it's not a question of Motivation - Aaron was just a RS Sophomore this year, playing behind a Pre-season All-American. It's a question of having a loaded depth chart. But the fact that when Evans came back, that he ended up splitting time at Strong side-DE (and why he had such a poor season btw - Evans is going to be a steal late in the draft), should tell you just how good Maybin was this year.

 

I don't think he's a 1-year wonder because he's just getting started. He doesn't really compare to any of our past DEs at Penn State because of his body-type and playing style. Penn State usually prefers bigger, taller guys at DE like Michael Haynes and Courtney Brown. But if I had to compare him to anyone it's Dwight Freeney.

 

And just an FYI Mike Haynes wasn't a one-year wonder. He was a two year starter at PSU, and I think lettered in 3 years. He was a very productive player for Penn State

 

Thanks!

[dave mcbride]

Remember Courtney Brown from Penn.St. Maybin isn`t as good.

Courtney Brown looked absolutely terrific when he came into the league before all the injuries. In 2001 (his second season), he was dominating people - 4.5 sacks in five games, 4 passes defensed, and 2 fumble recoveries, one of which was returned for a TD. And he looked good doing it (I watched a couple of Cleveland's early games that season). He got hurt in game 5 (ACL or some such - it was bad), and he never recovered.

 

He was NOT a bust - he got injured (repeatedly and badly) after never getting hurt in college. That's impossible to predict. Failure because of injury is a huge difference from a straight-up bust. Too many fans forget that.

[Steely Dan]

If Orakpo is on the board and the Bills do anything less then having Russ, Dick, and Ralph skipping while holding hands up to the commisioner with Orakpo's name on the card it will reaffirm my no-confidence in this front office policy.

 

Orapko is too much of an injury risk IMO. Both of his knees have been sprained. He's listed in the Pro Football Weekly 2009 Draft Guide under LB's.

 

 

I'm not advocating Maybin, but that type of thinking is why we haven't made the playoffs for 9 years. A 20 year old putting up those kind of numbers in his 1st year of starting is certainly intriguing. It would suggest he's only going to get better and he seems like a good kid and hard worker. On the downside, it was his 1st year and teams probably didn't design their blocking schemes around him.

 

The kid is raw but has a HUGE upside. He could be used in obvious passing situations this year and by next year I think he'll be a solid starter and by year 3 a pro-bowler. PS has a history of bust DE's but I think this kid is raw enough that with a lot of coaching he will be excellent. In the meantime his rushing skills would be very helpful in a rotation. JMO.

 

 

You may not want to hear it, but I think the one year wonder argument has some validity. Sometimes the best predictor of the future is to look to the past. I ripped that quote off of a scout regarding Robert Ayers, and it was used in a slightly different context, but its something to think about in this case, too. How many one-hit wonders at DE come into the NFL and ever have success? A few, but its rare. Add in the fact that he's undersized to his inexperience and lack of previous production and I think he carries considerable risk as an 11th overall pick.

 

The talent is certainly there, don't get me wrong, but Manny Lawson, Michael Haynes, Erasmus James and Erik Flowers and a few others that never really did much were talented one-year wonders, too. That's not to say that Maybin definitely will follow the same path, but that he carries a high degree of risk at a position that's already one of the riskiest picks to make in round one.

 

I don't know about the other guys but Flowers was a guy who rushed up draft boards after the college season ended. That is a red flag to me but, Maybin has always been considered a first round pick.

 

 

I added on to my previous post and I have no idea what FWIW means.

 

For What It's Worth.

[colin]

maybin clearly needs to grow into being an nfl DE.

 

only one thing matters afaic --- can he pressure the passer right now with natural disruptive ability?

 

if he can, then he is totally worth a 1st round pick for our bills. we just have to throw him in on 3rd downs, rotate our DEs to keep them fresh and just run a track meet towards the QB. the single thing we had the biggest problem with was rushing the passer. if we get just a bit more pressure on 3rd downs on a consistent basis, we get more sacks, fumbles, and interceptions. that will make our entire team much better.

 

that's more possessions, d plays less snaps, and we force more punts when we have our opponents backed up -- with our kicking game that will result in points.

 

so i dunno if it is ayers, orakpo, maybin, brown, or whoever, but we need to get a pass rusher who can make an impact on 3rd and obvious passing downs out the gate.

[spartacus]

maybin clearly needs to grow into being an nfl DE.

 

only one thing matters afaic --- can he pressure the passer right now with natural disruptive ability?

 

if he can, then he is totally worth a 1st round pick for our bills. we just have to throw him in on 3rd downs, rotate our DEs to keep them fresh and just run a track meet towards the QB. the single thing we had the biggest problem with was rushing the passer. if we get just a bit more pressure on 3rd downs on a consistent basis, we get more sacks, fumbles, and interceptions. that will make our entire team much better.

 

that's more possessions, d plays less snaps, and we force more punts when we have our opponents backed up -- with our kicking game that will result in points.

 

so i dunno if it is ayers, orakpo, maybin, brown, or whoever, but we need to get a pass rusher who can make an impact on 3rd and obvious passing downs out the gate.

rushing the passer on 3rd down is not the biggest problem

 

It's getting to 3rd and long where you have the luxury of teeing off.

 

The Bills can not stop the run to put themselves in must pass ssituations where they bring in a pass rush only guy.

 

3rd and 4, smart teams will run right over a midget like Maybin

 

Bills need to be bigger and tougher on the entire DL - and that won't happen by wasting premium picks on small one trick gimmick players

[Sisyphean Bills]

His bust potential isn't good. It's awesome.