Mark Long Beach Posted April 24, 2009 Posted April 24, 2009 Haven't seen this site before. Yes we all know what opinions are like (and the web allows us all to view them in great detail)... But, I really enjoyed his work: http://thegoodbyeladiesdraftreport.blogspot.com/ Seems to rely a lot on statistics and combine measurements to project forward, I'm not sure he does any direct visual scouting. Interesting none-the-less. Some tidbits: Top 2 round picks with projected sacks over 7 years: Maybin (46) Arakpo (37) English (33) Johnson (26.5) Sidbury(19) Brown(18) Ayers(9) ...and: Barwin(49)!! He's really curious about how Barwin is going to do as he's only projected in the 2nd round, yet seems to have the right kind of stats to project as a successful pass rusher. The model projects Connor Barwin to be the best pass rusher in this draft. His projection is the strongest of any second round pick since 2001, with the exception of Aaron Schobel, who projected to have 49.99 sacks and who in fact had 67 sacks by his seventh year. Barwin has the ninth highest projection of any player in the data set, just edging out Terrell Suggs'. As an added bonus, Barwin is apparently also strong against the run.
ans4e64 Posted April 24, 2009 Posted April 24, 2009 What does it matter to us if Brown busts as an OLB? If he comes here, he won't be playing OLB hybrid in a 3-4 defense...
stuckincincy Posted April 24, 2009 Posted April 24, 2009 He's really curious about how Barwin is going to do as he's only projected in the 2nd round, yet seems to have the right kind of stats to project as a successful pass rusher. He's also a very good ST player, and can long snap. And a better pass catcher than Vrabel. A smart, motivated kid with a lot of versatility...it will be interesting to see if he becomes a good pro.
SuperKillerRobots Posted April 24, 2009 Posted April 24, 2009 What does it matter to us if Brown busts as an OLB? If he comes here, he won't be playing OLB hybrid in a 3-4 defense... Maybe he could play LB on first and second then put Kelsey on the bench for third as a DE....
Mark Long Beach Posted April 24, 2009 Author Posted April 24, 2009 He's also a very good ST player, and can long snap. And a better pass catcher than Vrabel. A smart, motivated kid with a lot of versatility...it will be interesting to see if he becomes a good pro. I've not seen much on him before, so I've started to look around also. I'm also going to keep an eye on the guy. Wonder if he'll turn out to be a 2nd round steal. It's interesting that he uses Schoebel as his example of 2nd round pass-rushers that do quite well. Just goes to show you don't NEED to have a high first rounder as the only way to get some sack production. Of course we also have Kelsey & Denney as 2nd rounders, both okay DEs but not much use in terms of sack production.
Mark Long Beach Posted April 24, 2009 Author Posted April 24, 2009 What does it matter to us if Brown busts as an OLB? If he comes here, he won't be playing OLB hybrid in a 3-4 defense... He's not evaluating just how they would project to OLB. he's looking at pash rushing ability for both DE & 3-4 OLB. Both similar positions with pass rushing as a significant part of their job description. We would be using him as a DE obviously. This guy's stats say's he'll bust. He spells out his rationale fairly well.
stuckincincy Posted April 24, 2009 Posted April 24, 2009 I've not seen much on him before, so I've started to look around also. I'm also going to keep an eye on the guy. Wonder if he'll turn out to be a 2nd round steal. It's interesting that he uses Schoebel as his example of 2nd round pass-rushers that do quite well. Just goes to show you don't NEED to have a high first rounder as the only way to get some sack production. Of course we also have Kelsey & Denney as 2nd rounders, both okay DEs but not much use in terms of sack production. I would never pass myself off as much of an evaluator of college talent - but this fellow seems to have those "intangibles". UCinn has had a bit of resurgence the past few years - the pro players DE Trent Cole and TE Brent Celek are notable. The talking heads seem to feel that 6 UC players will be drafted - heady territory for their program. In the late rounds, or as a UDFA, I would keep an eye on their DT Terrill Byrd. I don't think he can carry the weight to be a NFL DT regular, but he is cat-quick and has it in him to make the big play.
Dylanme8 Posted April 24, 2009 Posted April 24, 2009 Haven't seen this site before. Yes we all know what opinions are like (and the web allows us all to view them in great detail)... But, I really enjoyed his work: http://thegoodbyeladiesdraftreport.blogspot.com/ Seems to rely a lot on statistics and combine measurements to project forward, I'm not sure he does any direct visual scouting. Interesting none-the-less. Some tidbits: Top 2 round picks with projected sacks over 7 years: Maybin (46) Arakpo (37) English (33) Johnson (26.5) Sidbury(19) Brown(18) Ayers(9) ...and: Barwin(49)!! He's really curious about how Barwin is going to do as he's only projected in the 2nd round, yet seems to have the right kind of stats to project as a successful pass rusher. This is the best posted link I have seen in months
Rico Posted April 25, 2009 Posted April 25, 2009 What does it matter to us if Brown busts as an OLB? If he comes here, he won't be playing OLB hybrid in a 3-4 defense...Maybe not this year, but after Jauron & Fewell are finally canned, the new regime may install a 3-4 scheme next year. I think any high D-pick needs to be versatile enough to play in multiple schemes.
Astrobot Posted April 25, 2009 Posted April 25, 2009 I've not seen much on him before, so I've started to look around also. I'm also going to keep an eye on the guy. Wonder if he'll turn out to be a 2nd round steal. It's interesting that he uses Schoebel as his example of 2nd round pass-rushers that do quite well. Just goes to show you don't NEED to have a high first rounder as the only way to get some sack production. Of course we also have Kelsey & Denney as 2nd rounders, both okay DEs but not much use in terms of sack production. Well-made point. All 3 of these DE's were 2nd Rounders. Would you be happy with a Raji-Barwin set of picks in RD1 and 2, with Pettigrew or English as your #28 pick? I would!
KOKBILLS Posted April 25, 2009 Posted April 25, 2009 Maybe not this year, but after Jauron & Fewell are finally canned, the new regime may install a 3-4 scheme next year. I think any high D-pick needs to be versatile enough to play in multiple schemes. Totally agree Rico... And besides...The Bills SHOULD have a 3-4 anyway...All those Years as one of the only Teams running it...I said WAY back when, and I'll say it again and again it's SO much easier building and maintaining a 3-4 Defense in the NFL than it is to do the same with a 4-3...It just makes common sense if you ask Me...Quality LB's are always easier to find than D-Lineman...The average LB weighs between 235-250 lbs and it's easy to assume more great athletes will be in that weight range than 270-300 lb. plus guys...Over the Years I think that adds up...Just get that great NT and you've got something going... I don't know...It always made sense to Me...Maybe just because that's what the Bills had when they were a legit NFL Contender...Maybe it's just nostalgia...
Erik Posted April 25, 2009 Posted April 25, 2009 Well-made point. All 3 of these DE's were 2nd Rounders. Would you be happy with a Raji-Barwin set of picks in RD1 and 2, with Pettigrew or English as your #28 pick? I would! Um...I think like isn't the word I would use for that scenario. There was a post about no matter what combination it is tomorrow fans would be upset...you'd be crazy to be upset with that 1-2-3 combo (either of them).
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