Criminalizing legal advice - CIA, waterboarding

[Kelly the Dog]

You can always look at history and see which activities and expenditures bolstered a superpower's currency, which is a good proxy of its growth potential and underlying value. What do you think history will say about Obama's stimulus?

 

You and I have no idea. There are a lot of statistics people use to say spending like that doesn't work and just as many stats to say that it does. People use stats to say that the huge spending didnt work in US history or Japanese history et al and other economists look at that exact same history and say it didnt work because they stopped short and didnt spend enough, or didnt follow through, not that they spent too much and it doesn't work. There seems to be as much criticism from serious economists like Krugman that Obama didnt go far enough and didnt spend enough on the stimulus.

 

To me, we're probably not even going to know what effect the stimulus had two years or ten or twenty from now because there are so many other factors in play right now that effect the economy (housing, credit, credit cards, bailouts, government intervention, regulation, changes in spending/savings habits, etc)

[GG]

You and I have no idea. There are a lot of statistics people use to say spending like that doesn't work and just as many stats to say that it does. People use stats to say that the huge spending didnt work in US history or Japanese history et al and other economists look at that exact same history and say it didnt work because they stopped short and didnt spend enough, or didnt follow through, not that they spent too much and it doesn't work. There seems to be as much criticism from serious economists like Krugman that Obama didnt go far enough and didnt spend enough on the stimulus.

 

To me, we're probably not even going to know what effect the stimulus had two years or ten or twenty from now because there are so many other factors in play right now that effect the economy (housing, credit, credit cards, bailouts, government intervention, regulation, changes in spending/savings habits, etc)

 

Actually, data is fairly conclusive. Using Japan for example, the verdict is in that much of spending was misdirected and that's a big reason their rebound took so long. One can argue that more social instead of infrastructure spending would have cause a rebound sooner, but that's the part that can be debated ad naseum because it doesn't sufficiently address the Japanese culture and how it adapts to change, worker movements, etc. The US generally had much greater resiliency to economic shocks, but a lot of that is due to the American labor mobility and preponderance to quickly abandon things that don't work. Exactly the kind of things that I hear the POTUS railing against.

 

But getting back to your original point, the war of choice was not even close as the root cause of the recession.

[Kelly the Dog]

But getting back to your original point, the war of choice was not even close as the root cause of the recession.

 

I dont think it was the root cause either. The question was "What exactly did the Bush adminstration do to mess up the economy?" It sure would be nice to have that trillion to spend or pay off some debt, or have the time back to concentrate on the domestic problems instead of Iraq.

[Chef Jim]

I dont think it was the root cause either. The question was "What exactly did the Bush adminstration do to mess up the economy?" It sure would be nice to have that trillion to spend or pay off some debt, or have the time back to concentrate on the domestic problems instead of Iraq.

 

You know what's funny? You'll be able to use that exact line in, oh say four years. Well with out the part about Iraq of course.

[Kelly the Dog]

You know what's funny? You'll be able to use that exact line in, oh say four years. Well with out the part about Iraq of course.

Not really, since that trillion is being spent right now on the domestic stuff. And I don't see it as a waste, I see it as an investment. And in four years we will hopefully be in a lot better shape because of that trillion spent now.

[Chef Jim]

Not really, since that trillion is being spent right now on the domestic stuff. And I don't see it as a waste, I see it as an investment. And in four years we will hopefully be in a lot better shape because of that trillion spent now.

 

Spent? Spent? Come on Kelly, you know the goverment better than that. It's waste, waste, waste, waste, spend what's left. Why does the money being spent on domestic stuff have to go through that black hole known as Washington? Oh that's right the private sector can't be trusted.

[Kelly the Dog]

Spent? Spent? Come on Kelly, you know the goverment better than that. It's waste, waste, waste, waste, spend what's left. Why does the money being spent on domestic stuff have to go through that black hole known as Washington? Oh that's right the private sector can't be trusted.

 

A lot of the money spent right now is going toward good stuff. Sure a lot is going to be wasted, it goes without saying. You asked a question and I answered it. Besides, you really think banks and real estate companies and wall street and credit card companies and your average joe can be trusted to do the right thing without regulations? We already saw what happened with that.

[Chef Jim]

A lot of the money spent right now is going toward good stuff. Sure a lot is going to be wasted, it goes without saying. You asked a question and I answered it. Besides, you really think banks and real estate companies and wall street and credit card companies and your average joe can be trusted to do the right thing without regulations? We already saw what happened with that.

 

I never said we don't need regulations. But don't you see a problem with the same people taking the money, deciding where and how to spend the money, and then being in charge of the regulations? I do. Provide the incentive for private enterprise to spend/invest the money and forcing them to be the best they can through good ole fashioned competition and limit government's only role to enforcing the rules to make sure that everyone is playing fairly. You're saying the private sector can't be trusted, well let me ask you a question dog, how did your government do in monitoring and enforcing the regulations THEY created?

[GG]

I dont think it was the root cause either. The question was "What exactly did the Bush adminstration do to mess up the economy?" It sure would be nice to have that trillion to spend or pay off some debt, or have the time back to concentrate on the domestic problems instead of Iraq.

 

But the war spending had a negligible impact on the economy as DoD spend was far lower than in the '80s-'90s, so it's a stretch to say that the war messed up the economy.

 

Now if your point is that without that war spending, total US debt would be $1 trillion less, that's fine. But America's DoD budget is a major reason the dollar trades where it is, and Treasuries are deemed a safe haven. So it's not a linear progression to think that there's a direct benefit from one less dollar spent on DoD. I could argue the opposite.

[Kelly the Dog]

I never said we don't need regulations. But don't you see a problem with the same people taking the money, deciding where and how to spend the money, and then being in charge of the regulations? I do. Provide the incentive for private enterprise to spend/invest the money and forcing them to be the best they can through good ole fashioned competition and limit government's only role to enforcing the rules to make sure that everyone is playing fairly. You're saying the private sector can't be trusted, well let me ask you a question dog, how did your government do in monitoring and enforcing the regulations THEY created?

 

Both sides did abysmal, in equal miserable numbers. I think there needs to be a delicate balance, I don't know what that balance is. The new Prez is trying to make people, the private sector and the government, more transparent and accountable, and actually a lot of the ideas he is using for it he got from the right. I think we need to start over, and I am not saying that the democrats or the government have a good history, but the republicans and the private sector don't have a better one either.

 

Your model will work if the government does enough but not too much, and the public doesn't scam their way out of loopholes, which they always do.

[Chef Jim]

Both sides did abysmal, in equal miserable numbers. I think there needs to be a delicate balance, I don't know what that balance is. The new Prez is trying to make people, the private sector and the government, more transparent and accountable, and actually a lot of the ideas he is using for it he got from the right. I think we need to start over, and I am not saying that the democrats or the government have a good history, but the republicans and the private sector don't have a better one either.

 

Your model will work if the government does enough but not too much, and the public doesn't scam their way out of loopholes, which they always do.

 

I was just talking today that a lot of the securities regulations we have to day were created in the early 30's after the crash with a little tweaking over the years. People always find a way around regulation but what really fries me about the government (left, right, up and down) is they seem to only be reactionary. Very little of what they do is geared towards making things better. It's usually to fix something that is totally !@#$ed up from years of mismanagement or flat out ignorance. Try to run a company that way. And therein lies the major problem. Most people in the government are trying to regulate business when they have not even run something as small as a hot dog cart, let alone a multi-national company. I think it's sav\fe to say I had more business experience when I delivered papers at the age of 12 and found out that if I made $20 and my expenses were $15 and I spent $10 on candy bars and soda I was in deep shiit when the Evening News guy came around to collect.

[Kelly the Dog]

But the war spending had a negligible impact on the economy as DoD spend was far lower than in the '80s-'90s, so it's a stretch to say that the war messed up the economy.

 

Now if your point is that without that war spending, total US debt would be $1 trillion less, that's fine. But America's DoD budget is a major reason the dollar trades where it is, and Treasuries are deemed a safe haven. So it's not a linear progression to think that there's a direct benefit from one less dollar spent on DoD. I could argue the opposite.

I could be wrong but didn't almost all of the Iraq war spending come from special orders from the President to Congress and outside of/beyond the regular DoD budget, which was being used anyway on its normal stuff and Afghanistan?

[Kelly the Dog]

I think it's sav\fe to say I had more business experience when I delivered papers at the age of 12 and found out that if I made $20 and my expenses were $15 and I spent $10 on candy bars and soda I was in deep shiit when the Evening News guy came around to collect.

A sound theory you still employ today without your clients knowing about the candy and soda?

[Chef Jim]

A sound theory you still employ today without your clients knowing about the candy and soda?

 

Wine and coke

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

a cola

[GG]

I could be wrong but didn't almost all of the Iraq war spending come from special orders from the President to Congress and outside of/beyond the regular DoD budget, which was being used anyway on its normal stuff and Afghanistan?

 

I think initially it was outside, but then they brought it on-budget. Even fully loaded it was nowhere near the % of GDP or % of total outlays as in Vietnam era, nor Reagan's build up. But, why end the myths?

 

ps - Obama's redesign of the OMB web site really sucks. You have to dig very deep to find historical tables, which were always on the front page of Bush's OMB site. Wonder why?

[Kelly the Dog]

But, why end the myths?

Because Vietnam and Reagan's were legitimate and these were bastards?

[Kelly the Dog]

Wine and coke

Cheers.

[Chef Jim]

Cheers.

 

Great, the last time I was quoted out of context I was banned from travel into Great Britain.