Bills are bottoming out

[dave mcbride]

Exactly. Everyone has said "Give it 3 years." Well guess what? Three years have passed and suddenly there's no point in discussing it! If the Bills pull another '06 draft on Sat, I will get very drunk.

I think there's no point in discussing one particular draftee who happens to be pretty good regardless of the fact that he may have been chosen to early. He played fairly well last year even if he wasn't a pro bowler. Anyway, what's done is done; time to move on.

[C.Biscuit97]

Resorting to personal insults is the indication you've got an issue. I won't do that here.

 

Be honest, some people are better at seeing things before they happen. I'm referring to people like BADOL and other posters who know their stuff. Merely hoping and wishing without action (from the front office) is the result of people needing something to cling to. I refuse to believe in this team until I see something on the field.

 

During the late eighties to late nineties I didn't take a wait and see approach because the team was consistently good. The cap has changed this somewhat, but I reserve the right to complain when the franchise is staring a decade in a row at missing the playoffs. I would think most Bills fans have tired of rhetoric without action. And banking on the draft to provide instant starters is not a plan, nor should it be.

 

For the record, I have season tickets, and going to the game is a highlight. But when you've seen the heartbreaking losses and good old fashioned whoopings I have these past three seasons, it gets old. Watching those MNF losses in person is hard. Take it for what it is, but don't make it personal.

 

 

I apologize for any insults. But the fact you questioned my passion for the Bills winning and losing because I don't see this doom and gloom team like you do really pissed me off. Just becuase I completely disagree with you doesn't mean I don't care as much (if not more) about this team winning.

[Rico]

I think there's no point in discussing one particular draftee who happens to be pretty good regardless of the fact that he may have been chosen to early. He played fairly well last year even if he wasn't a pro bowler. Anyway, what's done is done; time to move on.

Not until Lil' Donte finally steps up or Levy issues a public apology for burning the #8 pick on him.

[C.Biscuit97]

The point is to construct a coherent, logical argument and debate the issue like an adult instead of throwing a public temper tantrum and trying to attach a black label to anyone and everyone that doesn't agree with you. Why have a constructive debate on the issues? So everyone can learn something.

 

Look C.Bisc, I don't put you on ignore because there have been many times that you raised excellent points on some issues. I don't agree with many of your conclusions and leaps, but that's OK. I enjoy the free exchange of ideas we have here. Everybody doesn't agree on everything; that's life.

 

 

I find the fact you would ever consider putting someone on ignore laughable. I apologize for being positive. I will try to be more negative in the future.

 

I disagree with a lot of your posts but I do find them interesting. The Bills are a passion of mine and I probably take them too serious at times. But when you go to a message board, you would like to see more than just blank sucks and there is no hope. Maybe, I should just stop coming here as much because it appears people just would rather dwell on the bad.

 

Either way, enjoy the draft and when the Bills are a playoff team, you heard it first.

[BillsVet]

I apologize for any insults. But the fact you questioned my passion for the Bills winning and losing because I don't see this doom and gloom team like you do really pissed me off. Just becuase I completely disagree with you doesn't mean I don't care as much (if not more) about this team winning.

 

Apology accepted.

 

Fandom is a serious subject, but I'd be naive to think there aren't some people who walk away after a loss and it doesn't bother them as much. Other people let it burn them until the next game or, in the case of bad losses, for a long time.

 

I expect results and I'm not seeing it. Every off-season we're hoping and wishing that the team wins. And every season many people are let down when it doesn't happen enough to make the playoffs. Frankly, I'm sick of believing in something that isn't delivering.

 

You can disagree, and that's your right. I've just got to see something before I am willing to have any faith in the front office and coaching. Call me a doubting Thomas, whatever, but the moves this off-season, aside from a one year deal for TO, leaves a lot to be desired. The draft isn't going to answer all the issues they have either.

[Dawgg]

Not until Lil' Donte finally steps up or Levy issues a public apology for burning the #8 pick on him.

That's what I'm saying!

 

He did not play well last season by any measure. He's young, but after 3 years of watching his lackluster play, I am not optimistic.

[C.Biscuit97]

Apology accepted.

 

Fandom is a serious subject, but I'd be naive to think there aren't some people who walk away after a loss and it doesn't bother them as much. Other people let it burn them until the next game or, in the case of bad losses, for a long time.

 

I expect results and I'm not seeing it. Every off-season we're hoping and wishing that the team wins. And every season many people are let down when it doesn't happen enough to make the playoffs. Frankly, I'm sick of believing in something that isn't delivering.

 

You can disagree, and that's your right. I've just got to see something before I am willing to have any faith in the front office and coaching. Call me a doubting Thomas, whatever, but the moves this off-season, aside from a one year deal for TO, leaves a lot to be desired. The draft isn't going to answer all the issues they have either.

 

Very good then. And because of my expectations, the losses probably hurt me more than most people because I expect them to be a playoff team. Given the last decade, I can't blame you for adopting the "I'll believe it when I see it" approach. It definitely probably helps keep your expectations realistic.

 

Anyways, enjoy the draft and I look forward to Russ and company proving you wrong.

[BillsVet]

Anyways, enjoy the draft and I look forward to Russ and company proving you wrong.

 

Russ has a long way to go with me to prove he's got the savvy to handle the GM role.

 

I will enjoy the draft, because it promises to be a great day (league-wide) of surprises. For Buffalo fans like us, preferably good ones.

[dave mcbride]

That's what I'm saying!

 

He did not play well last season by any measure. He's young, but after 3 years of watching his lackluster play, I am not optimistic.

If he played so poorly, then how did a team with such an abysmal pass rush have the 14th ranked defense overall, allow the 4th fewest TD passes, and finish 13th in passing yards allowed despite both starting CBs as well as their nickel CB (Youbouty) missing significant chunks of time? Please break down Whitner's game for me in a way that accounts for this, and please don't rely on anecdotal examples like "but he was knocked silly by Sammy Morris." From my perch, the Bills very rarely looked out of position in red zone pass defense outside of the Arizona game. Sure, they did poorly on the INT front. There's no disputing that. But that's as much a function of pass rush than anything else. Whitner was the only constant in that secondary last year.

[C.Biscuit97]

If he played so poorly, then how did a team with such an abysmal pass rush have the 14th ranked defense overall, allow the 4th fewest TD passes, and finish 13th in passing yards allowed despite both starting CBs as well as their nickel CB (Youbouty) missing significant chunks of time? Please break down Whitner's game for me in a way that accounts for this, and please don't rely on anecdotal examples like "but he was knocked silly by Sammy Morris." From my perch, the Bills very rarely looked out of position in red zone pass defense outside of the Arizona game. Sure, they did poorly on the INT front. There's no disputing that. But that's as much a function of pass rush than anything else. Whitner was the only constant in that secondary last year.

 

 

Dave, please don't. You are waving a piece of steak in front of the Dawgg. He lacks any rational thought when discussing Whitner. He thinks Milloy, who was on a team with a much worst pass defense and one of the best pass rushing teams, is better than Whitner.

 

I'm warning you. Think of the children. This will go absolutely no where.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

A good portion of your statements are comical, but Fred Jackson being our best back? That is way up there in ridiculous. With Dominic Rhodes now on the roster, Fred Jackson would be our 3rd best back. I like the guy, and he is an excellent backup, but in just one or two good games in his career, and how he is better than Lynch and Rhodes-Ha!

 

As far as Whitner, I am not pleased with his recent arrest, but holding last years prediction against him? Plain stupid. If we had a roster full of confident players like him, maybe we would have made the playoffs last year. His prediction wasn't the reason we didn't make the playoffs-Again! It was poor coaching, poor blocking, among many other things, but a simple preseason prediction sure didn't lose games for us.

 

As far as our schedule, you are quite optimistic. After losing every division game last year, splitting with everyone except the Pats would be more than we can expect.

 

First off, thanks for the response. WRT Jackson...who was the better back last year, in your opinion? Seemed to me, Jackson made more of his opportunity from the RB position than Lynch...

 

Jackson: 130 rush for 571 yards, 4.4 ypc, 3 TD, 37 receptions, 317 yards, 8.6 avg

Lynch: 250 rush for 1036 yards, 4.1 ypc, 8 TD, 47 receptions, 300 yards, 6.4 avg

 

So, Jackson has the better YPC number, nearly half as many TDs, a better yard per catch number, no off the field issues and somehow he's NOT the better back? I would even venture to guess that if he played an entire season as the starter, he'd put up better numbers than Lynch would for a whole lot less money. Russ needs to re-sign this guy ASAP. Oh, he can return kicks/punts too.

 

You'll get no argument from me that coaching killed the Bills last year. Look at the Losman fumble in the Jets game last year. WTF was Jauron thinking calling a pass play there? That being said, Whitner did NOT back up his big talk with big play. Maybe if he had an Ed Reed type season and talked that kind of smack, I'd give him a pass.

 

Dude, they should have beaten the Fish and Jets at least once each last year. No reason they shouldn't this year, especially with Kellen Clemens under center for the Jets.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

More ammo on Jackson, from an article posted by "circler of the wagons": It's interesting to note, by the way, that No. 1 on the list for average yards per punt return was Buffalo's Fred Jackson with 16.6 yards/return as compared to Roscoe's 15.3/return.

 

Interesting.

[Dawgg]

If he played so poorly, then how did a team with such an abysmal pass rush have the 14th ranked defense overall, allow the 4th fewest TD passes, and finish 13th in passing yards allowed despite both starting CBs as well as their nickel CB (Youbouty) missing significant chunks of time?

That's a pretty misleading stat. If you're going to take the C.Biscuit method and use a team stat to extrapolate an individual player's performance, go right ahead, but make sure you understand the inherent caveats.

 

The Bills ranked #14 in passing yards allowed. If you want to give Donte Whitner a prize for that, go right ahead.

But know that they were also in the bottom third of the league in pass attempts. The Bills' run defense was so awful that teams didn't even bother passing on them. Only 10 teams had more rushing attempts against them than the Bills. Though I don't think a whole lot of Chris Brown, he explains it perfectly in his blog:

 

While I understand the point you’re trying to make, the ranking of the pass defense in 2008 (13th) is a bit misleading. The reason why is because teams still had fair to good success running the ball against Buffalo when all was said and done. The Bills finished 22nd against the run and surrendered over 120 yards per game on the ground. When teams run that well against you they don’t have to throw as much reducing the yards a defense gives up passing thereby improving the ranking against the pass.

The Bills had Donte Whitner in the box quite often in run support and there were numerous plays throughout the season where he took bad angles on the ball resulting in big gains for opposing running backs. He was certainly not the only culprit, but he was poor in run support (Sammy Morris notwithstanding). In fact, Bryan Scott was far more effective in stopping the run than our prized first round pick Donte Whitner... which explains why the coaching staff has decided that he not suited for the strong safety role.

 

Please break down Whitner's game for me in a way that accounts for this, and please don't rely on anecdotal examples like "but he was knocked silly by Sammy Morris." From my perch, the Bills very rarely looked out of position in red zone pass defense outside of the Arizona game. Sure, they did poorly on the INT front. There's no disputing that. But that's as much a function of pass rush than anything else. Whitner was the only constant in that secondary last year.

Whitner was also weak against tight ends. Sure a lack of pass rush doesn't help his cause, but when he had a chance to get his hands on the ball, he often whiffed (see Denver game for an example). He was also a liability when covering tight ends (see Miami game). I'm not going to regurgitate team stats to justify Whitner's individual play. I watched him play every single game and he simply did not play at a high level. I am glad, though, that he hosts film study sessions and movie nights at his house each week.

[Ramius]

More ammo on Jackson, from an article posted by "circler of the wagons": It's interesting to note, by the way, that No. 1 on the list for average yards per punt return was Buffalo's Fred Jackson with 16.6 yards/return as compared to Roscoe's 15.3/return.

 

Interesting.

 

Jackson only had 7 returns. There's a reason why the NFL requires a minimum number of returns to qualify.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Jackson only had 7 returns. There's a reason why the NFL requires a minimum number of returns to qualify.

 

Well, that helps.

 

The man makes the most of his opportunities, that's for sure.

[dave mcbride]

That's a pretty misleading stat. If you're going to take the C.Biscuit method and use a team stat to extrapolate an individual player's performance, go right ahead, but make sure you understand the inherent caveats.

 

The Bills ranked #14 in passing yards allowed. If you want to give Donte Whitner a prize for that, go right ahead.

But know that they were also in the bottom third of the league in pass attempts. The Bills' run defense was so awful that teams didn't even bother passing on them. Only 10 teams had more rushing attempts against them than the Bills. Though I don't think a whole lot of Chris Brown, he explains it perfectly in his blog:

 

While I understand the point you’re trying to make, the ranking of the pass defense in 2008 (13th) is a bit misleading. The reason why is because teams still had fair to good success running the ball against Buffalo when all was said and done. The Bills finished 22nd against the run and surrendered over 120 yards per game on the ground. When teams run that well against you they don’t have to throw as much reducing the yards a defense gives up passing thereby improving the ranking against the pass.

The Bills had Donte Whitner in the box quite often in run support and there were numerous plays throughout the season where he took bad angles on the ball resulting in big gains for opposing running backs. He was certainly not the only culprit, but he was poor in run support (Sammy Morris notwithstanding). In fact, Bryan Scott was far more effective in stopping the run than our prized first round pick Donte Whitner... which explains why the coaching staff has decided that he not suited for the strong safety role.

 

 

Whitner was also weak against tight ends. Sure a lack of pass rush doesn't help his cause, but when he had a chance to get his hands on the ball, he often whiffed (see Denver game for an example). He was also a liability when covering tight ends (see Miami game). I'm not going to regurgitate team stats to justify Whitner's individual play. I watched him play every single game and he simply did not play at a high level. I am glad, though, that he hosts film study sessions and movie nights at his house each week.

 

Teams didn't throw many TD passes against the Bills, and that's how most teams score in the NFL. Irrespective of the run defense, the pass defense put up good numbers, as did the defense overall considering the lack of a rush. The defense improved dramatically from the previous year, despite the terrible rush and a number of injuries in the secondary. They finished 14th overall in points given up too. Basically, you're arguing by anecdote again (i.e., picking out a bad play/few bad plays -- I suppose you think Henry Jones was bad in coverage too because he struggled mightily with Ben Coates) instead of looking how the defense was structured and run overall as well as *why* it was relatively successful in pass defense. Why weren't opposing receivers open deep? Why were the number of secondary breakdowns low by NFL standards? My understanding is that Whitner is the de facto QB of the secondary, which suggests he must be doing something right. Note that I mentioned that the lack of INTs was a problem (he dropped one by my count).

 

In fact, in all three seasons Whitner has been on the team, the Bills have finished in the top 10 in number of passing TDs allowed. If you're wondering why such a mediocre team nearly gets to .500 every year, there's your answer.

[Dawgg]

Teams didn't throw many TD passes against the Bills, and that's how most teams score in the NFL. Irrespective of the run defense, the pass defense put up good numbers, as did the defense overall considering the lack of a rush. The defense improved dramatically from the previous year, despite the terrible rush and a number of injuries in the secondary. They finished 14th overall in points given up too. Basically, you're arguing by anecdote again (i.e., picking out a bad play/few bad plays -- I suppose you think Henry Jones was bad in coverage too because he struggled mightily with Ben Coates) instead of looking how the defense was structured and run overall as well as *why* it was relatively successful in pass defense.

I dispute your very premise that the Bills were successful in pass defense. You citing they were ranked 14th in pass yards allowed is also arguing by anecdote. The reason they had such a relatively high ranking is because they surrendered 120+ yards rushing and had very few passing attempts. Why take a low percentage pass play when you can just run it down their throat? As a strong safety often positioned in the box, Donte Whitner was a part of that.

 

I look forward to Whitner's continued development... but now that 3 years have passed, I think evaluating his play is very relevant.

[dave mcbride]

I dispute your very premise that the Bills were successful in pass defense. You citing they were ranked 14th in pass yards allowed is also arguing by anecdote. The reason they had such a relatively high ranking is because they surrendered 120+ yards rushing and had very few passing attempts. Why take a low percentage pass play when you can just run it down their throat? As a strong safety often positioned in the box, Donte Whitner was a part of that.

 

I look forward to Whitner's continued development... but now that 3 years have passed, I think evaluating his play is very relevant.

? - A statistical sample that covers the entire season is hardly an "anecdote." In fact, it's the opposite of one. And they finished 13th in pass D and 14th overall in both defensive yardage and points. Anecdotal arguments are ones in which the arguer culls an example or a few examples to make a point while giving short shrift to a larger body of evidence that provides a more accurate picture of the whole.

[Dawgg]

? - A statistical sample that covers the entire season is hardly an "anecdote." And they finished 13th in pass D and 14th overall in both defensive yardage and points. Anecdotal arguments are ones in which the arguer culls an example or a few examples while giving short shrift to a larger body of evidence that provides a more accurate picture of the whole.

Unfortunately, the samples aren't independent. A poor rush defense is largely responsible for the comparably low number of passes attempted against the Bills' defense. And if you think Whitner was used solely as a pass defender, you're mistaken. To simply cherry-pick the pass defense ranking as an indictor of Whitner's play is rather misleading given the amount of time he spent in the box defending the run. Since the coaching staff has seen enough of him taking bad angles at running backs and moved him away from the very position he was drafted for, it'll be interesting to see how he fares defending the pass.

[Sisyphean Bills]

I'd be more concerned about the offense. It did need to be fixed, but the moves (other than T.O.) don't look like clear cut steps in the forward direction.

 

The Bills offense faced 7 of the bottom 9 defenses in the NFL and 0 of the top 9 defenses in 08 and yet only ranked 25th overall, 26th in total plays, and 23rd in points per game. That's simply atrocious.

 

Assuming the defense and special teams remain static (not a good assumption), what have the Bills done to fix the offense?

 

• They signed T.O. A bold move to bring in talent despite the risk of migraines.
  
• They changed the backup QB position by signing a QB who had a worse season than Dan Orlovsky of the Lions.
  
• They changed the C position by signing another backup C in FA (see Melvin Fowler) and jettisoning both "IQ" and Fowler.
  
• They dumped Derrick Dockery rather than pay him his roster bonus.
  
• They dumped the "awkward athletism" of Robert "Hands" Royal.
  
• They traded Jason Peters for draft picks.
  
• They signed Dominic Rhodes after Marshawn Lynch got suspended for smoking pot with his pals in LA.
  
• They signed a few other backups and street free agent lineman.
  

 

Well, that picture isn't as simple as "Turk and Hardy equals improvement". I guess one could say something lacking substance such as "the OL can't get any worse than it was" and hope that the Bills strike gold in the draft and the line comes together quickly. On the other hand, given that the offense was pathetic last year, replacing 4 of the 6 inline blockers up front with no-names, cast-offs, and backups might be a cause for a little concern. Couple that with a QB that can't stay on the field and was complaining of a worn out shoulder last year, a prima donna WR that isn't afraid to squawk his dissatisfaction at the drop of a hat, a mild mannered player's coach, and an offensive coordinator still cutting his teeth in the NFL.

 

It's all good. In Brandon, we trust.