Bills are bottoming out

[dave mcbride]

Buftex, that's not the TO I saw. Randy Galloway has been on a crusade against him, and I think his dislike of the man has finally filtered through to the masses.

 

From Football Outsiders:

 

WR A: 70/1172/11 TDs - 16.7 ypc; 50% catch rate

WR B: 64/533/5 TDs - 8.3 ypc; 49% catch rate

 

Who would you rather have?

 

Both are 16 game projections of TO in 2008.

 

WR A: TO w/Romo

WR B: TO w/o Romo

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-poi...ns-roy-williams

[mrags]

The thing that I really love about these posts is that we all know the Bills have been mediocore at best for the last 10 or so years(proof is in their record) We all consistantly say we want the team to get better.....But how?

 

The FO is now finally starting to make moves to make this team better and everyone is bashing them? Would you all feel better if they didnt announce that subpar players were on the trading block? or how about if we signed a subpar WR to compete with Reed for the 2nd starting spot?

 

For the first time in years this FO is alive. Im just like most of you that thinks this could all backfire and we will be horrible this year. But what do we really have to lose? We havent made the playoffs in almost 10 years. Maybe all these moves will be the turning point that this team really needs. If its not then were right back in this position next year, which would most likely be the same if we dont trade for anyone, pick up any FA's.

Im starting to think that as much as everyone wants this team to get better they dont want to sacrifice anything for it.

 

At the very worst case scenario we would be horrible and end up firing the GM and coaching staff. If that happens do you really think this team would be with these subpar players that are on the block anyway?

 

And as good as Peters might be, he wasnt last year and admitted that he didnt care at times. So get over Peters please. He didnt want to be here.

[bartshan-83]

That's an interesting statement you make. IIRC, on this very message board, in one of the Cutler threads, a certain poster said Shanahan had the ability to make average players perform better. You know who said that?

 

You did.

 

You made that statement trying to prove Cutler was overrated.

 

If QB's make the coach, then how does BB take a QB that has not started a game since HS, plug said QB into his team, and produce a winning record?

 

How does BB, as HC of the Browns, take Vinny Testaverde (considered a bad QB at the time), plug him into his team, and not only reaches the playoffs, but the Vinny led Browns actually won a playoff game?

 

How does Dan Reeves, Bill Parcels, Don Shula, and Mike Holmgren lead more than 1 team to the SB?

 

How does Brian Billick win a SB with Trent Dilfer as a QB?

 

How did Joe Gibbs win three SB with 3 different QB's, two of them being Doug Williams and Mark Rypien?

 

How do coaches like Shanahan, Fisher, etc ... make the playoffs with different QB's?

 

How did Bill Cowher get to 2 SB with 2 different QB's?

 

Why did Coughlin admit he had to change, and not his QB, when the Giants won the SB two years ago?

 

Explain your Shanahan/Cutler statement.

 

(I can provide many more examples if you want.)

 

I believe a HC has a far bigger impact than you want to admit.

Well said. I believe a great QB can make any coach look better, but it's a great coach that will consistently produce a winning team (with rotating talent). If I had to choose between Joe Gibbs and John Elway, I choose Gibbs every time.

 

Years ago in the midst of the the Super Bowl run (I must have been 9 or 10), I had the nerve to question my dad on whether Marv was capable of winning the big one and if we should get a new coach. He told me (and I'm paraphrasing):

 

"Everything sucks when you have a bad coach. Even if you have a few great players, you might win some battles, get into the playoffs, have a good year here and there. But eventually you will suck again. It's inevitable."

 

I never appreciated the full force of that statement at the time since all I knew was Levy and the Super Bowl days. But every year I think about what he said and how painfully true it is. We ran our last decent coach out of town because he gave up in Week 15 one year and didn't wear a headset. And it has been nothing but steady misery (with the occasional tease) ever since.

 

I tell this to all my friends here who are Eagles fans. Most of them would love nothing more than to see Reid and McNabb tarred and feathered tomorrow. I tell them when you have a good coach (AND a good QB), you ride them out. Because 99 times out of 100, you will need both to win a championship. And if you get rid of them, you just might spend the next decade still looking for your next....

[Lurker]

I have seen bottoms. I know bottoms. Bottoms are no friend of mine. Sir, this is no bottom...

[Billsbacker88]

It reminds me of a boss I once had. He told me, "I will back you all the way as long as you are 100% right!" I asked him why the f I would need him if I was 100% right, and he walked away.

 

It doesn't matter if Jauron could have won the Superbowl with the 76 Steelers. The fact is that he continues to lose, and there is no reason to believe that he wil stop losing.

 

 

I can't wait for the season to start. I'm hoping for the best. No matter what, always a bills fan.

[PromoTheRobot]

Predicting doom for the Bills. How novel. I have never seen this before. Everything sucks. We suck. The team is leaving. There is a huge conspiracy. Yet we are always in the playoff hunt till the last week or two. If things were really this bad we'd be the Lions: 0-16. Maybe being 7-9 is worse? The "Forever .500's" like the Hartford Whalers.

 

Seriously, posts like these bore me to tears.

 

PTR

[San-O]

I don't think its fair to blame it on Dick Jauron. The Bills sucked before he arrived, and to be honest, when you look at the personnel he's had to work with since he's been here, 7-9 is not unimpressive. Give the man a roster that can compete before you judge him.

 

 

Jauron will cost the Bills 2 -3 games a year, that is on him.

[Billsbacker88]

Predicting doom for the Bills. How novel. I have never seen this before. Everything sucks. We suck. The team is leaving. There is a huge conspiracy. Yet we are always in the playoff hunt till the last week or two. If things were really this bad we'd be the Lions: 0-16. Maybe being 7-9 is worse? The "Forever .500's" like the Hartford Whalers.

 

Seriously, posts like these bore me to tears.

 

PTR

I've been reading this board for quite a while. The negitivity surprizes me. As a season ticket holder that lives on Long Island sometimes a loss hurts real bad, on the drive home. But the Bills are like a marriage. For better or for worse, good times and bad. GO BILLS!!

[MRW]

Predicting doom for the Bills. How novel. I have never seen this before. Everything sucks. We suck. The team is leaving. There is a huge conspiracy. Yet we are always in the playoff hunt till the last week or two. If things were really this bad we'd be the Lions: 0-16. Maybe being 7-9 is worse? The "Forever .500's" like the Hartford Whalers.

 

Seriously, posts like these bore me to tears.

 

PTR

Then don't read 'em? Seriously, how is a content-free reply to a negative post adding anything to the conversation?

[keepthefaith]

The thing that I really love about these posts is that we all know the Bills have been mediocore at best for the last 10 or so years(proof is in their record) We all consistantly say we want the team to get better.....But how?

 

The FO is now finally starting to make moves to make this team better and everyone is bashing them? Would you all feel better if they didnt announce that subpar players were on the trading block? or how about if we signed a subpar WR to compete with Reed for the 2nd starting spot?

 

For the first time in years this FO is alive. Im just like most of you that thinks this could all backfire and we will be horrible this year. But what do we really have to lose? We havent made the playoffs in almost 10 years. Maybe all these moves will be the turning point that this team really needs. If its not then were right back in this position next year, which would most likely be the same if we dont trade for anyone, pick up any FA's.

Im starting to think that as much as everyone wants this team to get better they dont want to sacrifice anything for it.

 

At the very worst case scenario we would be horrible and end up firing the GM and coaching staff. If that happens do you really think this team would be with these subpar players that are on the block anyway?

 

And as good as Peters might be, he wasnt last year and admitted that he didnt care at times. So get over Peters please. He didnt want to be here.

 

It is good to see the FO making moves. Without any public say-so, it looks to me like the FO has gone into a rebuilding mode and that's good. The turning point you mention will come next year with a new coach as well.

[Bill from NYC]

I can't wait for the season to start. I'm hoping for the best. No matter what, always a bills fan.

 

Same here. And hope always springs eternal before the draft.

 

In 06, we had 4 picks entering day 1. There were huge needs on both lines, and a young quarterback who needed all the help he could get. We walked away with Whitner, McCargo and Youboty. Of course, we followed up this masterpiece by grabbing Ko Simpson with the 8th pick of Round 4. What saddens me is that we are in roughly the same position as we speak.

We simply cannot afford another catostrophic draft like this. The thing is, many of the same people are running the show. But, you are ultimately correct. All we can do is hope for the best.

[Guest dog14787]

Some good points for sure. You could also add that the starting RB will miss the first few games, and almost

certainly the O-line will have 2 or three new starters, or starting different players at three positions.

 

We'll have to endure the old "time to gel" posts that are not doubt being crafted now.

 

In addition, NFL defenses seemed to figure out Schonert's offense very quickly last year, and I don't

think they'll have that benenfit again at the start of the season.

 

6-10 is my best scenario.

 

 

 

I think its a lack of Talent that has been one of our biggest problems. I also think the influx of new players is going to help.

 

I'm optimistic so I'll flip your numbers around, 10-6 and fighting for a playoff spot.

[mrags]

It is good to see the FO making moves. Without any public say-so, it looks to me like the FO has gone into a rebuilding mode and that's good. The turning point you mention will come next year with a new coach as well.

 

However it comes it will be a time for the ages. Either all of these moves will work and we will be back into the playoffs. Or its just about time for DJ to pack his bags. Either way you look at it Bills fans should be excited. I say lets at least get past the draft before we start with the "End of the World" threads. We dont really know what holes we have YET.

[The Rev.Mattb74 ESQ.]

First of all, they are guided by the lame duck Dick Jauron, arguably the worst long tenured head coach in the Super Bowl era. This alone would be cause for concern because everyone knows that he can't continue to do what he has been doing and keep his job. Unfortunately for him and us, he has been doing his best and it isn't even close to enough. Expect Jauron to try to be more aggressive and for the results to be worse because he isn't capable of coaching that brand of football.

 

Second, they have a fragile, physically limited starting QB, a very bad backup situation and nobody in development. Edwards will be hurt early in the season.

 

He will be hurt early because he has arguably the worst OL in the NFL in front of him. Seriously, look around the league and find a worse collection of OL. When Langston Walker is your best OL you have a serious concern.

 

Age:

 

The 4 best DL are all well on the backsides of their careers. Stroud, Schobel, Kelsay and Denney.....this unit was poor last year and is really poised for a big fallout. They all really are at the point in their careers where they should be backups or at best in a rotation with players of comparable or better talent. There is not a lot in the cupboard behind these guys either.

 

TO. I saw Dave McBride here talking about Owens as the best player on this team. That's not saying much, but even so, he's not. He's very old for a wr and has had declining production. I fully expect him to be nicked up in or before camp and nagged by injuries like you would expect from a player who is that old. Perhaps the key point though is that his hands are failing him. Anyone who remembers James Lofton as a Bill should remember that when the Bills let Lofton go he could still do everything he always could.......except catch the football consistently. The hands go first and TO lead the NFL in dropped passes last year.

 

The linebacker position is very slow and unathletic. Mitchell makes big plays, but he's not a very good all around player. Poz is a the opposite, he's solid but makes no plays. Who even knows who the other starter will be, but chances are it's not going to be a game changer and the backups are little more than special teamers.

 

The back of the secondary. There is no capable free safety on this roster. Unless you count Whitner as a free safety......which is a position he is worse suited for than SS.......holyshitt what a mess is brewing back there.

 

Perhaps the biggest sign of an implosion is the radical moves being made by and attributed to Russ Brandon. There appears to be an effort to add by subtraction as if the reason the organization has failed to win is because of a few guys who just aren't buying into the wonderful system in place. This situation is very reminiscent of what the Lions did last offseason.

 

I know a lot of you are counting on the draft and the June 1st releases to bolster this roster. Unfortunately the draft never supplies the kind of immediate help that a roster like this needs to get better now. Even the top picks will not lead this team. Not that this will keep the Bills from drafting for need instead of taking the best available player......that's what they do and it's the main reason they are so lacking in difference makers. Also, there won't be any June 1st cuts. I just mentioned this because for some reason people don't realize that June 1st ceased to be a key date about a decade ago and isn't even relevant at all since the last cba.

 

Lastly, a tough schedule in a tough division filled with teams run by instinctive, successful career football men.

 

I'd love to be wrong about this, but a year from now people will be wondering how any of us could have thought this team could be anything more than horrible. If Edwards goes down, and he will, this team is headed for 2-4 wins. The days of the team winning a handful of games by playing ultra conservative Jauron ball and taking advantage of young teams who are trying to get better are gone.

Even if you are right, being bad this year is not the worst thing. Being stuck in the middle over and over is. Having a bad year may get us a new FO, and coaching staff. Having a bad year allows you to potential draft a face for the franchise(as long as we Draft a Bruce Smith and not a Mike Williams). For nine years his team has not attempted to rebuild the right way, and it is long overdue. Rather then putting bandaids of mediocre staff and players we could make the right moves. Look at KC, they took there lumps last year even after purging the roster and stocking it with young(but some talented) football players and this year have a new coaching staff and FO- of course only time will tell if they got the right ones. Maybe Ralph (I dont give the man the benefit if the doubt often) knew this year would not be a good one and decided to start turning the roster over this year and instead of making a new headcoach live through the first year of the rebuilding process and get run out of town like Cam did in Miami(which I dont think the man is a terrible coach, especially with what he did with Baltimores offense last year) he is letting Dicky J take that heat. Just throwing this out there for a different point of view, because like you I am not expecting alot from this team, however if done right I am ok with that. Meaning getting good young players, and good coaches that can bring something to the table besides signing on the cheap( I am not saying you have to pay top dollar-you just need to get a good coach which can be had at a reasonable rate). I am ok with being patient if I think patients will pay off, I no longer have patientce for no hope of reward.

[34-78-83]

First of all, they are guided by the lame duck Dick Jauron, arguably the worst long tenured head coach in the Super Bowl era. This alone would be cause for concern because everyone knows that he can't continue to do what he has been doing and keep his job. Unfortunately for him and us, he has been doing his best and it isn't even close to enough. Expect Jauron to try to be more aggressive and for the results to be worse because he isn't capable of coaching that brand of football.

 

Second, they have a fragile, physically limited starting QB, a very bad backup situation and nobody in development. Edwards will be hurt early in the season.

 

He will be hurt early because he has arguably the worst OL in the NFL in front of him. Seriously, look around the league and find a worse collection of OL. When Langston Walker is your best OL you have a serious concern.

 

Age:

 

The 4 best DL are all well on the backsides of their careers. Stroud, Schobel, Kelsay and Denney.....this unit was poor last year and is really poised for a big fallout. They all really are at the point in their careers where they should be backups or at best in a rotation with players of comparable or better talent. There is not a lot in the cupboard behind these guys either.

 

TO. I saw Dave McBride here talking about Owens as the best player on this team. That's not saying much, but even so, he's not. He's very old for a wr and has had declining production. I fully expect him to be nicked up in or before camp and nagged by injuries like you would expect from a player who is that old. Perhaps the key point though is that his hands are failing him. Anyone who remembers James Lofton as a Bill should remember that when the Bills let Lofton go he could still do everything he always could.......except catch the football consistently. The hands go first and TO lead the NFL in dropped passes last year.

 

The linebacker position is very slow and unathletic. Mitchell makes big plays, but he's not a very good all around player. Poz is a the opposite, he's solid but makes no plays. Who even knows who the other starter will be, but chances are it's not going to be a game changer and the backups are little more than special teamers.

 

The back of the secondary. There is no capable free safety on this roster. Unless you count Whitner as a free safety......which is a position he is worse suited for than SS.......holyshitt what a mess is brewing back there.

 

Perhaps the biggest sign of an implosion is the radical moves being made by and attributed to Russ Brandon. There appears to be an effort to add by subtraction as if the reason the organization has failed to win is because of a few guys who just aren't buying into the wonderful system in place. This situation is very reminiscent of what the Lions did last offseason.

 

I know a lot of you are counting on the draft and the June 1st releases to bolster this roster. Unfortunately the draft never supplies the kind of immediate help that a roster like this needs to get better now. Even the top picks will not lead this team. Not that this will keep the Bills from drafting for need instead of taking the best available player......that's what they do and it's the main reason they are so lacking in difference makers. Also, there won't be any June 1st cuts. I just mentioned this because for some reason people don't realize that June 1st ceased to be a key date about a decade ago and isn't even relevant at all since the last cba.

 

Lastly, a tough schedule in a tough division filled with teams run by instinctive, successful career football men.

 

I'd love to be wrong about this, but a year from now people will be wondering how any of us could have thought this team could be anything more than horrible. If Edwards goes down, and he will, this team is headed for 2-4 wins. The days of the team winning a handful of games by playing ultra conservative Jauron ball and taking advantage of young teams who are trying to get better are gone.

 

Some very sobering and valid points in there for sure Badol, especially re: the O-line....along with some stretches that make things seem maybe a bit worse than they need to....

ie.. Stroud or a healthy Schobel needing to be in a rotation at best (seriously??)

ie.. Edwards fragile? Maybe... Physically limited?? I don't think so. Is he as strong as Cutler? no I'll give you that.

ie. no mention of a vastly improved WR corps overall other than TO is getting old

There are other things but overall and unfortunately I agree that this cannot possibly lead to a good record in 2009

[Gordio]

I agree with everything you've said, Badol, unfortunately.

 

I will add this: what upsets me the most is the COMPLETE, UTTER SILENCE of the Bills Front Office following the Peters trade. Not a peep. No explanation. Not even a mealy-mouthed, "We regretfully made this decision after trying unsuccessfully for two years to reach an agreement with Jason, and when we decided that wasn't going to happen, we moved in a different direction that we believe will be in the long-term best interests of our football team." Nope. Just silence. They don't even care anymore. As Gleason said, they know that the stands will be relatively full for the last three years of the franchise's tenure in Buffalo, then it's off to the highest Canadian bidder.

 

 

You make a good point. The lack of silence by the Bills front office after the peter's trade is disturbing. Shortly after the peters trade would of been an excellent time for brandon to have a PC & tak about the pride of the franchise, maybe stating something like "it was clear from the beginning that Peters did not want to be here & we do not want anybody here that does not want to be here. It should be an honor & a privledge to play for this organization & if you dont want to be here, we dont want you here.". It might of been mostly lip service but for christ sakes it would be nice if the front office/coaching staff showed some pride & showed the community they indeed have a real live pulse at One Bills Drive.

[San-O]

It is good to see the FO making moves. Without any public say-so, it looks to me like the FO has gone into a rebuilding mode and that's good. The turning point you mention will come next year with a new coach as well.

 

 

I also agree. and also this is probably the most aggressive the Bills FO have been in acquiring picks

and expect this to pay dividends probably the 2010 season, with a new coach. BTW, I hope they pick up

a good receiver in the draft and let him develop. After Owens leaves, Reed, Parrish (?), Hardy and Johnson

are simpy not enough.

 

Jauron can't keep on getting a free pass.

[PromoTheRobot]

I've been reading this board for quite a while. The negitivity surprizes me. As a season ticket holder that lives on Long Island sometimes a loss hurts real bad, on the drive home. But the Bills are like a marriage. For better or for worse, good times and bad. GO BILLS!!

 

 

Then don't read 'em? Seriously, how is a content-free reply to a negative post adding anything to the conversation?

 

Because sometimes you want to just grab a poster and shake them and say "maintain perspective!" Bottoming out is what the Detroit Lions did. 0-16 is bottoming out. 7-9 is frustrating but nowhere near bottoming out.

 

PTR

[Andrew Mills]

I also agree. and also this is probably the most aggressive the Bills FO have been in acquiring picks

and expect this to pay dividends probably the 2010 season, with a new coach. BTW, I hope they pick up

a good receiver in the draft and let him develop. After Owens leaves, Reed, Parrish (?), Hardy and Johnson

are simpy not enough.

 

Jauron can't keep on getting a free pass.

 

I don't know how anyone can say that the Bills' lack of performance isn't a direct reflection on Juron's inability to motivate...

 

That said,

 

what would we need to finish this year for Juron to keep his job? 9-7?, 8-8?, has 7-9 become acceptable?

 

Personally, I think a 9-7 finish w/ the schedule we have would be enough but do you really think they'll fire him if The Bills finish .500 or worse?

 

I doubt it... its easier to claim that we're "staying the course" than it is to can him.

[DE Bills Fan]

Some good points for sure. You could also add that the starting RB will miss the first few games, and almost

certainly the O-line will have 2 or three new starters, or starting different players at three positions.

 

We'll have to endure the old "time to gel" posts that are not doubt being crafted now.

 

In addition, NFL defenses seemed to figure out Schonert's offense very quickly last year, and I don't

think they'll have that benenfit again at the start of the season.

 

6-10 is my best scenario.

 

totally agrre unless major changes are made along with a good draft. What a sorry set of affairs. I couldn't have said it better. It is shaping up to be a really painful season made all the more apinful by the initial promise of getting TO, but then basically doing nothing.