Bills are bottoming out

[dave mcbride]

The Bills offense faced 7 of the bottom 9 defenses in the NFL and 0 of the top 9 defenses in 08 and yet only ranked 25th overall, 26th in total plays, and 23rd in points per game. That's simply atrocious.

Good stat; thanks. One caveat - NE never seems to be in the very top tier in defensive yardage, but they're always one of the best regardless of stats.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Good stat; thanks. One caveat - NE never seems to be in the very top tier in defensive yardage, but they're always one of the best regardless of stats.

Not sure what you mean, Dave. New England is usually right up there. 10th, 4th, 6th, 9th, 7th...

 

They were the sole top 10 defense the Bills played in 08 though.

[dave mcbride]

Unfortunately, the samples aren't independent. A poor rush defense is largely responsible for the comparably low number of passes attempted against the Bills' defense. And if you think Whitner was used solely as a pass defender, you're mistaken. To simply cherry-pick the pass defense ranking as an indictor of Whitner's play is rather misleading given the amount of time he spent in the box defending the run. Since the coaching staff has seen enough of him taking bad angles at running backs and moved him away from the very position he was drafted for, it'll be interesting to see how he fares defending the pass.

I'm not cherry picking; overall the defense was 14th overall (one slot worse than their 13th overall pass defense ranking). Safeties are generally on the field because they can cover; run support is an added bonus. Otherwise, teams would simply start linebackers at the safety spot. And of course there's the obvious point that on a running play, everyone is involved in the play no matter what their position. What are these "bad angles" you speak of? I don't recall them. Please specify. As for him being moved to free safety, it might have something to do with his ability to cover, no? It's not as if they could have made a switch that necessitated moving Ko "I make millions" Simpson at the strong spot. Scott looks like a guy who can actually handle that position. At the beginning of the season last year, the Bills didn't know that, but by the end of the season, Whitner was playing a lot of free safety.

 

http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/conten...Nfl&id=3691

 

"The Bills are reportedly considering moving Donte Whitner to free safety full time.

Buffalo toyed with this idea last offseason, but nixed it to keep Ko Simpson in the lineup. The Bills believe Whitner's cover skills are wasted playing "in the box," however, and think he'll be a bigger playmaker in center field.

Source: National Football Post"

 

Translation: Ko Simpson isn't any good at run support.

[dave mcbride]

Not sure what you mean, Dave. New England is usually right up there. 10th, 4th, 6th, 9th, 7th...

 

They were the sole top 10 defense the Bills played in 08 though.

You said they faced 0 of the top 9 defenses. I don't know what NE's actual ranking was, but the Bills played them twice. I guess 10th? As for them being "right up there," sure. It's just that come playoff time, they appear so much better than everyone else (usually) that I find it hard to believe that they're not 1 or 2 or 3.

[Sisyphean Bills]

You said they faced 0 of the top 9 defenses. I don't know what NE's actual ranking was, but the Bills played them twice. I guess 10th? As for them being "right up there," sure. It's just that come playoff time, they appear so much better than everyone else (usually) that I find it hard to believe that they're not 1 or 2 or 3.

That is correct. I chose to limit it to 1-9 and 24-32 and ignore everything in between. Almost half of their schedule came against teams in the bottom 9. (And they won almost half -- glass full -- of their games.) 9 of their games came against middle of the pack defenses and none against the top 5 (elite).

 

The point is unmistakable, really. The Bills offense did poorly with respect to the 0-sum game of stats despite having a schedule that was heavily biased towards the low end.

[stuckincincy]

That is correct. I chose to limit it to 1-9 and 24-32 and ignore everything in between. Almost half of their schedule came against teams in the bottom 9. (And they won almost half -- glass full -- of their games.) 9 of their games came against middle of the pack defenses and none against the top 5 (elite).

 

The point is unmistakable, really. The Bills offense did poorly with respect to the 0-sum game of stats despite having a schedule that was heavily biased towards the low end.

 

And - sadly - one has to factor in the many favorable field positions thanks to the ST play...both for the offense and for the defense.

[BillsVet]

It's all good. In Brandon, we trust.

 

One of the reasons I'm down on the front office (aside from not having a GM) is their inability to develop a vision and stick with it.

 

In 06 it was all about drafting defense, which wasn't as successful as it should have been. Later rounds were okay with Williams and Butler. Ellison is a ST'er.

 

In 07, they filled needs with their top 2 picks, with Edwards the lone instance where they went BPA in Marv's top 3 rounds of either draft. The others are ST'ers or have been released.

 

In 08, they went with what could be a gamebreaking CB/RS. Hardy still has a long way to go, both on and off the field. The others were either injured or didn't see the field. For all the talk about Steve Johnson, Bowen, and Bell, none of them played important minutes last season. Banking on them this season is an extremely risky proposition.

 

All in all, the attempt at rebuilding the OL via UFA was unsuccessful. Now they're going at it with more UFA's, albeit cheaper ones. The DL is rapidly aging, as BADOL pointed out and the LB's include two starters and plenty of ST'ers.

 

In the fourth off-season since Marv was hired, I'm not sure what the priority is in building this team. I would hope they've admitted that OL and DL will be early and often in 09. It's something many on this board have been talking about for longer than I've been here.

[Billsguy]

I laughed a bit and stopped reading there. Grow up and stop being so gloomy about the bills. If you have this much hope for them, why even watch?

 

 

Let me guess - are you one of the thousands who post on this board and predict a 10-6 finish every year?

 

Every year the blind are reading to the blind.

 

The Bills are in deep trouble. The Broncos have the guts to fire their long time Super Bowl winning coach and trade their starting QB. The Bills cling to a perpetual losing coach in Dick Jauron. I'm not a Broncos fan at all, but I admire their guts and I'll bet they succeed before Buffalo does. If you finish 7-9 every year doesn't it make sense to try a different strategy instead of sticking with the same loser coach?

 

I could list many,many other mistakes in progress at One Bills Drive, but it would take too long. It is not about being optimistic or pessimistic, but rather realistic.

 

The competition is leaving the Bills in the dust.

 

The Bills have a mangled weak looking OL, an aging DL that can't get to the QB, a directionless business manager posing as a GM and a perennial loser head coach.

 

Does that gives you cause for "blind optimism"?

 

Look at the facts and you may see what everyone else around the country sees - the Bills are destined for a 4th place finish in the division again.

 

P.S. I've been a fan since 1960 and I hope the best for the Bills. Just because I'm not a cheerleader who sticks my head in the sand and ignores the facts doesn't mean I'm not a fan.

[dave mcbride]

One of the reasons I'm down on the front office (aside from not having a GM) is their inability to develop a vision and stick with it.

 

In 06 it was all about drafting defense, which wasn't as successful as it should have been. Later rounds were okay with Williams and Butler. Ellison is a ST'er.

 

In 07, they filled needs with their top 2 picks, with Edwards the lone instance where they went BPA in Marv's top 3 rounds of either draft. The others are ST'ers or have been released.

 

In 08, they went with what could be a gamebreaking CB/RS. Hardy still has a long way to go, both on and off the field. The others were either injured or didn't see the field. For all the talk about Steve Johnson, Bowen, and Bell, none of them played important minutes last season. Banking on them this season is an extremely risky proposition.

 

All in all, the attempt at rebuilding the OL via UFA was unsuccessful. Now they're going at it with more UFA's, albeit cheaper ones. The DL is rapidly aging, as BADOL pointed out and the LB's include two starters and plenty of ST'ers.

 

In the fourth off-season since Marv was hired, I'm not sure what the priority is in building this team. I would hope they've admitted that OL and DL will be early and often in 09. It's something many on this board have been talking about for longer than I've been here.

 

I remember reading a convincing article a couple of year back (for the life of me, I can't find it) saying that pass rushing DEs really hit their stride in their early 30s. In fact, Strahan, Reggie White, and especially Bruce were at their best then (Bruce's best season was '96, and he was 33). The writer had a number of other good examples. His argument was that they're still quick but more importantly they've a) learned how to play the game and b) have built up a reservoir of pass rushing moves. They aren't one-trick ponies anymore. As for the DT spot, didn't a certain white-haired GM of the Bills get rid of a phat DT when he hit 30? Seems to me his performance hasn't dropped off. As long as they don't eat themselves out of the league, those guys can last. Ted Washington was the best defensive player on the field in the January 2004 Super Bowl, and he was almost 36.

[BillsVet]

I remember reading a convincing article a couple of year back (for the life of me, I can't find it) saying that pass rushing DEs really hit their stride in their early 30s. In fact, Strahan, Reggie White, and especially Bruce were at their best then (Bruce's best season was '96, and he was 33). The writer had a number of other good examples. His argument was that they're still quick but more importantly they've a) learned how to play the game and b) have built up a reservoir of pass rushing moves. They aren't one-trick ponies anymore. As for the DT spot, didn't a certain white-haired GM of the Bills get rid of a phat DT when he hit 30? Seems to me his performance hasn't dropped off. As long as they don't eat themselves out of the league, those guys can last. Ted Washington was the best defensive player on the field in the January 2004 Super Bowl, and he was almost 36.

 

Certainly, lineman who aren't reliant on speed can be productive into their later years. The position doesn't call for them to out-run anyone, but rather to get through or around an OL.

 

Schobel's coming off an injury that prevented him from playing most of the season. If these guys stay relatively healthy (in NFL terms) they can be good into their thirties. I remember jokingly hearing that some Bills thought Schobel was the laziest DL, again strictly in jest. I think he'll come back, but banking on getting production from him isn't enough, IMO.

 

Stroud I think will play OK, especially with new cash coming in. The other DL are essentially backups masquerading as NFL starters. Kyle Williams works hard, but he's got short arms and isn't the prototypical 3 tech DT. I don't think anyone needs me to elaborate on Kelsay on Denney, especially from the pass rushing perspective.

 

The team needs an infusion of talent at DE. Ellis is a hope and a prayer at this point.

 

They need talent on DL, regardless of age.

[dave mcbride]

Certainly, lineman who aren't reliant on speed can be productive into their later years. The position doesn't call for them to out-run anyone, but rather to get through or around an OL.

 

Schobel's coming off an injury that prevented him from playing most of the season. If these guys stay relatively healthy (in NFL terms) they can be good into their thirties. I remember jokingly hearing that some Bills thought Schobel was the laziest DL, again strictly in jest. I think he'll come back, but banking on getting production from him isn't enough, IMO.

 

Stroud I think will play OK, especially with new cash coming in. The other DL are essentially backups masquerading as NFL starters. Kyle Williams works hard, but he's got short arms and isn't the prototypical 3 tech DT. I don't think anyone needs me to elaborate on Kelsay on Denney, especially from the pass rushing perspective.

 

The team needs an infusion of talent at DE. Ellis is a hope and a prayer at this point.

 

They need talent on DL, regardless of age.

I agree with everything you say, although I think Stroud is better than OK. He's a good player.

[Ramius]

One of the reasons I'm down on the front office (aside from not having a GM) is their inability to develop a vision and stick with it.

 

In 06 it was all about drafting defense, which wasn't as successful as it should have been. Later rounds were okay with Williams and Butler. Ellison is a ST'er.

 

In 07, they filled needs with their top 2 picks, with Edwards the lone instance where they went BPA in Marv's top 3 rounds of either draft. The others are ST'ers or have been released.

 

In 08, they went with what could be a gamebreaking CB/RS. Hardy still has a long way to go, both on and off the field. The others were either injured or didn't see the field. For all the talk about Steve Johnson, Bowen, and Bell, none of them played important minutes last season. Banking on them this season is an extremely risky proposition.

 

All in all, the attempt at rebuilding the OL via UFA was unsuccessful. Now they're going at it with more UFA's, albeit cheaper ones. The DL is rapidly aging, as BADOL pointed out and the LB's include two starters and plenty of ST'ers.

 

In the fourth off-season since Marv was hired, I'm not sure what the priority is in building this team. I would hope they've admitted that OL and DL will be early and often in 09. It's something many on this board have been talking about for longer than I've been here.

 

Well, draft wise, we aren't in the bottom 5 front offices/personnel men. Granted we are no where near the top 5, but perhaps we aren't as bad (in drafting) as people would have everyone believe.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/pgStory?conte...p;photo=9486136

[BADOLBILZ]

That's what I'm saying!

 

He did not play well last season by any measure. He's young, but after 3 years of watching his lackluster play, I am not optimistic.

 

Dawgg, it's like this:

 

You can't criticize a draft pick 3 years after the fact, and you can't criticize a draft pick until 3 years after the draft. Got it?

 

However, you must criticize that pick after they leave as a free agent or are traded. Then they are TRASH!

[BADOLBILZ]

If he played so poorly, then how did a team with such an abysmal pass rush have the 14th ranked defense overall, allow the 4th fewest TD passes, and finish 13th in passing yards allowed despite both starting CBs as well as their nickel CB (Youbouty) missing significant chunks of time? Please break down Whitner's game for me in a way that accounts for this, and please don't rely on anecdotal examples like "but he was knocked silly by Sammy Morris." From my perch, the Bills very rarely looked out of position in red zone pass defense outside of the Arizona game. Sure, they did poorly on the INT front. There's no disputing that. But that's as much a function of pass rush than anything else. Whitner was the only constant in that secondary last year.

 

Dave, I'm glad you like you some Whitner. I like him too. He's awright. Reminds me of a young Pierson Prioleau.

 

The issues however:

 

He was clearly overdrafted, which hurt the organization because it was a precious very early draft pick, the 2nd highest pick they'd had in two decades and an opportunity to draft a cornerstone of the franchise.

 

He is overpaid(richest contract in Bills history when signed).

 

He doesn't make plays. Almost no pics, forced fumbles, TFL's.

 

He doesn't match up well in coverage with anybody, not even TE's or backs, let alone WR.

 

He talks too much sh*t and doesn't back it up, which makes him look stupid.

 

And he seems to think he's maybe just a bit above the law. Which also makes him look stupid as well as hypocritical because he talks so much sh*t about what a great man he is.

 

That's all.

 

Otherwise he's good. How else could we have a 14th rated pass defense, right?

[BADOLBILZ]

Well, draft wise, we aren't in the bottom 5 front offices/personnel men. Granted we are no where near the top 5, but perhaps we aren't as bad (in drafting) as people would have everyone believe.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/pgStory?conte...p;photo=9486136

 

Agreed. They are much worse at keeping their own good players, coaching, and just playing football in general than they are drafting. They are actually about average or close to it at drafting. It may be their strength as an organization. I think that's why they have like a 9 game winning streak against the Bengals.

[dave mcbride]

Dave, I'm glad you like you some Whitner. I like him too. He's awright. Reminds me of a young Pierson Prioleau.

 

The issues however:

 

He was clearly overdrafted, which hurt the organization because it was a precious very early draft pick, the 2nd highest pick they'd had in two decades and an opportunity to draft a cornerstone of the franchise.

 

He is overpaid(richest contract in Bills history when signed).

 

He doesn't make plays. Almost no pics, forced fumbles, TFL's.

 

He doesn't match up well in coverage with anybody, not even TE's or backs, let alone WR.

 

He talks too much sh*t and doesn't back it up, which makes him look stupid.

 

And he seems to think he's maybe just a bit above the law. Which also makes him look stupid as well as hypocritical because he talks so much sh*t about what a great man he is.

 

That's all.

 

Otherwise he's good. How else could we have a 14th rated pass defense, right?

Overdrafted: probably, but at this point, I could care less; it's over and done with. I'm surprised you even care, incidentally; what he makes is peanuts compared to the overall cap numbers at this point. I agree he's not a Pro Bowler, and that's because he doesn't make game-turning plays. But in comparison to past years, I don't see regular catastrophic breakdowns in the secondary (2002 comes most immediately to mind) anymore because apparently there's a guy back there who can diagnose plays. And I see him in position on a constant basis. He can run.

 

I couldn't give a flying f**k about the talking, and I'm surprised you do (plus it's a weak arguing point). As for the arrest, yeah, dumb, but since I think most NFL guys' aggressive tendencies make them borderline criminals, I'm not going to get too flustered by a 3 am bar squabble in which no one got hurt. If memory serves, a certain Badolbilz came to the defense of Bryant McKinnie after he two-by-foured some guy with a velvet-rope pole and pointed to how we don't understand how terrible bouncers truly are. But he was a Cane; I get it.

 

In all seriousness, what is up with the Canes? I hear that only one guy might get drafted (a CB), and he'll be a late pick. What happened???

[jahnyc]

I think the drafting of players has been okay, maybe slightly above average or average, but the Bills are atrocious at acquiring free agent talent. Dockery, Spencer Jonhson, Fowler, A. Thomas, Webster, Peerless Price, Reyes, Whittle; the list is long. The talent lost to free agency or from trades is becoming a real problem (and clearly is superior to the talent acquired). Peters, Winfield, Greer, Clements, Pat Williams--a pretty good group of players. Factor in the constant need to replace players lost, and it becomes clear why this team cannot improve.

[BADOLBILZ]

Overdrafted: probably, but at this point, I could care less; it's over and done with. I'm surprised you even care, incidentally; what he makes is peanuts compared to the overall cap numbers at this point. I agree he's not a Pro Bowler, and that's because he doesn't make game-turning plays. But in comparison to past years, I don't see regular catastrophic breakdowns in the secondary (2002 comes most immediately to mind) anymore because apparently there's a guy back there who can diagnose plays. And I see him in position on a constant basis. He can run.

 

I couldn't give a flying f**k about the talking, and I'm surprised you do (plus it's a weak arguing point). As for the arrest, yeah, dumb, but since I think most NFL guys' aggressive tendencies make them borderline criminals, I'm not going to get too flustered by a 3 am bar squabble in which no one got hurt. If memory serves, a certain Badolbilz came to the defense of Bryant McKinnie after he two-by-foured some guy with a velvet-rope pole and pointed to how we don't understand how terrible bouncers truly are. But he was a Cane; I get it.

 

In all seriousness, what is up with the Canes? I hear that only one guy might get drafted (a CB), and he'll be a late pick. What happened???

 

The Canes hired a mediocre head coach to follow a bullsh*t coach who got handed the steering wheel of a dominant program on cruise control and almost immediately ran it off the road. They've had two very good recruiting classes in a row, but will continue to be hamstrung by poor coaching. But, when you are in the middle of such a great talent pool like South Florida, you are always one good coaching hire away from national contention. It's like having Polian or Ozzie Newsome as your GM. Just a matter of time before Shannon gets himself fired and a decent coach comes in and the swagger returns. I wish it were so easy for the Bills.

 

As for comparing Whitner to McKinnie. Thank you. That's part of the point. QB's, LT's, DE's........these are key positions. Safety is a great place to stick a 35 year old corner and extend his career. Face it, the Bills got cute with that pick. They were going to outsmart the league and find the next Bob Sanders. Because apparently, what teams should look for in a safety is a guy who doesn't have the measurables, doesn't produce much and talks a lot of smack. Unfortunately, they missed the fact that Bob Sanders produced like a pinball machine in college and warranted early round consideration. Even in round 2, Whitner would have been a projection who benefited from Sanders success, not clearly worthy of such early selection.

 

Sh*t, they don't even know which safety position Whitner belongs at because he hasn't distinguished himself in the box or in space.

 

He's just a guy, Dave. It's good that your past that, though. Happy for you. I'm actually past winning and losing altogether, but I can still point out the obvious. Tailgating/following the team/NFL/NCAA: awesome. Results/actually watching the poor quality football: not as fun.

[BillsVet]

QB's, LT's, DE's........these are key positions.

 

I still do not understand what makes this a difficult concept to TSW'ers. Find guys to play these positions at an above average or high level and it makes a lot, but not everything, fall into place. Personally, I think it centers around defending Levy and not so much on defending Whitner.

 

Someone will come along and say multiple other positions are drafted top 10 or 15, but if you find a solid QB, LT, or DE at the top, that team has a much better change at avoiding another top 10 pick and the cap ramifications in future seasons.

 

A poster has a signature from something Tim Graham said about safeties. I'll paraphrase, but it's that they depend so heavily on the front 7. Ed Reed wouldn't have nearly the success in Buffalo's defense. If that's the case, there's no reason to take a safety high (without the DL), because they don't have the opportunity to show their stuff.

[dave mcbride]

The Canes hired a mediocre head coach to follow a bullsh*t coach who got handed the steering wheel of a dominant program on cruise control and almost immediately ran it off the road. They've had two very good recruiting classes in a row, but will continue to be hamstrung by poor coaching. But, when you are in the middle of such a great talent pool like South Florida, you are always one good coaching hire away from national contention. It's like having Polian or Ozzie Newsome as your GM. Just a matter of time before Shannon gets himself fired and a decent coach comes in and the swagger returns. I wish it were so easy for the Bills.

 

As for comparing Whitner to McKinnie. Thank you. That's part of the point. QB's, LT's, DE's........these are key positions. Safety is a great place to stick a 35 year old corner and extend his career. Face it, the Bills got cute with that pick. They were going to outsmart the league and find the next Bob Sanders. Because apparently, what teams should look for in a safety is a guy who doesn't have the measurables, doesn't produce much and talks a lot of smack. Unfortunately, they missed the fact that Bob Sanders produced like a pinball machine in college and warranted early round consideration. Even in round 2, Whitner would have been a projection who benefited from Sanders success, not clearly worthy of such early selection.

 

Sh*t, they don't even know which safety position Whitner belongs at because he hasn't distinguished himself in the box or in space.

 

He's just a guy, Dave. It's good that your past that, though. Happy for you. I'm actually past winning and losing altogether, but I can still point out the obvious. Tailgating/following the team/NFL/NCAA: awesome. Results/actually watching the poor quality football: not as fun.

 

Alright -- I'll admit it (sorta). I have a little bit of an emotional investment in his success at this point (one of those "sunk cost" things), and I want him to do well. it's partly a function of the fact that I'm so goddamn sick of Dawgg's carping about him.

 

How about this deal: if he isn't a difference maker this year, I'll cry uncle. If he has a good year, you and Dawgg will admit that yes, maybe it wasn't a great idea to pass judgement on a 21 year old.

 

If you're on, then all I have to say is he better f'ing perform.

 

Btw, you never really addressed the TO/Rice stuff. I expect a big year from TO, actually (and I'm not saying that because of emotional investment reasons - I'm basing it on a judgment from a Cowboys fan friend who is as knowledgeable as you are and watches every game pretty dispassionately).