Gil Brandt

[Leonidas]

some VERY interesting and surprising insights from Gil Brandt:

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/giants/20...m-gil-bran.html

 

 

LSU DE Tyson Jackson will go in the Top 5. Not might. Will. This qualified as the biggest shocker, to me, since almost every mock draft I looked at pegged Jackson to be a mid- to late first-rounder at best. I thought the Top 5 was pretty locked in, too. But, of course, I shouldn’t have doubted Mr. Brandt. I asked around after the show to see if I could confirm it, and sure enough one NFL source I know did tell me he’s heard the Kansas City Chiefs might take Jackson at No. 3, or trade down and take him a few picks later.

 

• The Seattle Seahawks, at No. 4, will likely select either Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree or USC QB Mark Sanchez.

 

• Crabtree will fall somewhere between Picks 4 and 10, though given the variables it was impossible to guess exactly where.

 

• The Oakland Raiders will take a receiver at No. 7 (and it’s hard to imagine them passing on Crabtree if he’s available, so I suppose we can narrow down Crabtree’s placement to 4-7).

 

• There will be no defensive backs taken in the Top 10.

 

• The Saints, at No. 14, are looking for a big cornerback, and Ohio State’s Malcolm Jenkins is a good bet to be their guy.

 

• The New England Patriots, at No. 23 will take a linebacker.

 

• Oklahoma T Phil Loadholt (6-7, 332) will go in the first round of the draft. His teammate, G Duke Robinson (6-5, 330, and the top-rated guard on most boards), will not.

 

• Cincinnati DE Connor Barwin didn’t begin this process as a first-rounder, but he has managed to sneak himself into the bottom of the first round.

 

• The Buffalo Bills are targeting a DE with the 11th pick (and not Tennessee DE Robert Ayers, by the way). They are also pretty high on Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew, but aren’t likely to take him unless they trade down a few spots. (Important note: Things have obviously changed a little since then, since the Bills acquired a second first-round pick from Philadelphia in the Jason Peters trade. Now the Bills have both the 11th and 28th pick. Of course, they also have an obvious need for a tackle).

 

Watch out, stuckincincy will have you prosecuted for this!!!

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Says people a lot closer to the Bills than Gil Brandt.

 

And thats all I'm saying about the situation.

Thanks for sharing that Malta, and I apologize for the way I acted the last time you shared information...it was the team I was angry with, not you.

[Lt. Dan's Revenge]

To a certain extent you are correct.

 

But, lets be real here. He was a DE, and one of the main roles of a DE is to sack the QB. He got 3 last year, and not many in the years before that.

 

If he had a hard time getting after the QB in college, what makes you think he can get the job done in the pro's?

 

I just don't see it.

 

Pass on Ayers

 

I think he can get it done in the pro's because it took him a little longer than expected to develop at Tennessee, but he really came on last season, and became an impact player during the latter half of the year. I think he is only going to get better entering the next level.

[John from Riverside]

Malta,

 

Aren't the people you are talking to worried about the lack of sack production?

 

I like Ayers....but at that 11th pick that player better be an absolute difference maker stud

[thebandit27]

The funny thing is that many people see only what they want to see. Steely Dan, for one is underwhelmed by this video.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccuoGx3A6t4

 

But to make my point, the very first play Ayers stunts inside, gives a head and shoulder fake to the guard who as a result acts like a deer in the headlights before crumpling...without so much as touching Ayers. To me that's Ayers' speed, quickness, and agility. Someone else described the same play as Ayers being unblocked...even though there was a player assigned to block him.

 

I know you like Ayers, SJBF, and I know that you like him based on a lot of research you've done. For that I credit you, and you have as much of a chance of being right about him (probably more so) than I do. DE is perhaps the most difficult position (outside of WR, in my opinion) at which to grade a college player.

 

I just happen to see a different player than you. I think Ayers will be a a decent NFL end, but not the type of explosive, consistent sack threat that Buffalo needs. In fact, he's probably better off kicking inside on passing downs a la Justin Tuck. However, my beef is not with Ayers specifically, I simply don't believe that any of this year's 1st round DE prospects present the type of player Buffalo really needs. I think that there are other guys with more potential to turn into that type of player (i.e. English, Sidbury), which is why I prefer those two to any other players.

[Kettle Creek Football]

What about DE Michael Johnson at 28 or 43?

[ans4e64]

What about DE Michael Johnson at 28 or 43?

 

[Thoner7]

Ayers reminds me of Kelsay.

[Leonidas]

What about DE Michael Johnson at 28 or 43?

 

MJ is gonna bust. I wouldn't even take him at 43 (although we draft at 42). Maybe in the third because he has crazy talent, but I don't like him.

[Lt. Dan's Revenge]

Ayers reminds me of Kelsay.

 

Amazingly, each and every first day defensive end prospect that people don't like in this draft reminds them of one of two guys: Kelsay or Flowers. It's like clockwork.

[Fewell733]

Says people a lot closer to the Bills than Gil Brandt.

 

And thats all I'm saying about the situation.

 

it's funny because even despite this report, and me not being a proponent of drafting Ayers at 11, I still have a funny feeling that we'll be picking him cause he seems like the kind of player that we pick.

 

Also, yeah, who knows how much stuff is accurate at this point in the game. However I do think it would be odd for Brandt to be so specifically wrong on something like this.

[stinky finger]

If we draft Ayers at #11, I'll never hear the end of it down here. Living in SEC country, the consensus is that Ayers is completely overrated, and that his rise up the draft board is a complete joke. It's bad enough I have to listen to this Herschel Walker-coattail-riding-hillbilly-jackass (Buck Bellou) on the radio down here diss Buffalo every so often, if we're the ones who make this move it'll become even more nauseating. SEC football is bigger than anything down here, and if they say Ayers is crap, then I tend to trust their view a bit more than the Bills F.O.

Hillbillies have a front office?

 

I thought they had a front parlor.

[Acantha]

If we draft Ayers at #11, I'll never hear the end of it down here. Living in SEC country, the consensus is that Ayers is completely overrated, and that his rise up the draft board is a complete joke. It's bad enough I have to listen to this Herschel Walker-coattail-riding-hillbilly-jackass (Buck Bellou) on the radio down here diss Buffalo every so often, if we're the ones who make this move it'll become even more nauseating. SEC football is bigger than anything down here, and if they say Ayers is crap, then I tend to trust their view a bit more than the Bills F.O.

I watch a lot of SEC football and have to agree that his rise up the draft boards in surprising to me. I would consider him a solid, rotational DE. I'd expect to see him in the lower part of RD1, not top 10.

 

I also watch a lot of college football in general and think that there isn't a single DE in this draft worth taking in the top 10. Same with the QB's. Everyone is taking the best of a bad group and expecting them to be first class NFL players. Just doesn't work that way.

 

Guess we'll see.

[youbotymyboty]

I watch a lot of SEC football and have to agree that his rise up the draft boards in surprising to me. I would consider him a solid, rotational DE. I'd expect to see him in the lower part of RD1, not top 10.

 

I also watch a lot of college football in general and think that there isn't a single DE in this draft worth taking in the top 10. Same with the QB's. Everyone is taking the best of a bad group and expecting them to be first class NFL players. Just doesn't work that way.

 

Guess we'll see.

Would Love Ayers or English at 28. The boyz are going Brandon Pettingzoo at 11. DE at 28. Mark it dawn ya'll!!!!!!!!

[Buffalonian-at-Heart]

The Bills will draft Ayers if he's available at #11.

 

As if he might not be available?

[Thurman#1]

The Bills will draft Ayers if he's available at #11.

 

 

 

So you have better info than Brandt does?

[Orton's Arm]

Amazingly, each and every first day defensive end prospect that people don't like in this draft reminds them of one of two guys: Kelsay or Flowers. It's like clockwork.

If we take Ayers, then in the future, disappointing DEs will be compared with three Bills players.

[Thurman#1]

You cannot judge prospects solely on statistical numbers. That is ridiculous, and will not give you good results, plain and simple. If it worked that way, then Pettigrew shouldn't be anywhere near the first round, Jerry Hughes from TCU should be the first DE taken since he led the nation in sacks, Laurinites should be taken before Curry due to the numbers, etc, etc. Judging Ayers on his sack numbers alone is a copout.

 

 

 

I think you are wrong about that. You CAN judge guys on stats, though you have to be reasonable about how to interpret them. But the most important thing is that you can't pick and choose your stats. If you want to see the whole guy, you have to look at all the stats. Pettigrew can be judged by stats, but you have to look at his blocking stats as well, and see his stats in terms of the team's stats (they are obviously a run-first team, and you can see that from the stats).

 

But Ayers is a bit of an exception, for one reason. We already have average DEs on the left side. They are average at stopping the run. Ayers is far better than average at stopping the run. Ayers is an excellent all-round DE, but not a great sacker. That's what the stats show. And that's what is true.

 

So, what does our defense require of a DE? That is the key. Ayers is going to be a good match for a defense which requires an excellent all-round DE on the left side, but doesn't require a sacker. 3-4 defenses, for instance, don't require a sacker at the left DE spot. For the right team and the right scheme, Ayers will be terrific. Are we the right team and the right scheme?

 

The Cover 2 rushes four defensive linemen, and requires that those four linemen generate a lot of pressure on the QB. It is a system that works well ONLY if you don't have to blitz a lot. This means that a sack artist is REQUIRED at LDE as well as RDE. It is a somewhat unique defense for this reason.

 

That is why people are zeroing in on Ayers's sack stats. They aren't trying to figure out whether Ayers has an excellent all-round game. We zero in on sack stats because we believe that if the guy will play LDE in our system then he absolutely must be a sack man. And Ayers is not.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

You make good points Thurman but several scouting services have Ayers ranked pretty highly and the reports that you see are that he plays with explosiveness and suddenness. If you watch the video you can see this quickness and agility. He is projected by some to be more than just a good all-around defensive end.

 

If as you suggest one takes into account all the stats, Ayers' 40 times at the combine were 4.68, 4.77, and 4.92. That's a mean average of 4.79. A bulked up Aaron Maybin, but still 25 pounds lighter than Ayers ran 4.62, 4.78, and 4.91 for a mean average of 4.77. Ayers times put him close to Brian Cushing's times. He was faster than Larry English (4.82 mean average) and was one of the fastest defensive ends at the combine. Only Michael Johnson and Brian Orakpo, the two freakish workout warriors have a more impressive combination of size and speed than the nearly 6'4" 272 pound Ayers.

 

In high school Ayers was a 100 yard sprinter and also ran on the 4X100 relay team.

 

It's true that he doesn't have good sack numbers. He didn't start to dominate till the last half of his senior year. These are concerns. He was only credited with 6 QB pressures but in 14 plays against Alabama, he had 4 QB pressures. I believe this stat to be inaccurate. He lived in the backfield during his senior year with 15.5 TFL and he had 30.5 TFL at Tennessee.

 

While some scouts may project him as just a good all-around defensive end there are scouts who believe that he will also be an excellent pass rusher.

[Deep2Moulds46]

Gil Brandt hosted a show called Late Hits on Sirius NFL radio with the guy who wrote this article. Everytime Brandt said ANYTHING about the draft, this guy said he was taking notes and was treating it as gospel.

 

I was actually the person that called in and asked him if Brandon Pettigrew was a guy Buffalo would target at 11 ( this phone call did happen the day before the Peters trade, and on that same show, Brandt said Peters was the most likely of the big name players to be moved before the draft).

 

He said the Bills would like Pettigrew, but probably not at 11. They would like to trade down. He said he saw them going DE at 11. So I asked if Robert Ayers was a guy they would be targeting, and he simply said Ayers was a strange player because before the season started he wasnt on the radar screen, and now after a strong off season, some people are talking about him as the best defensive linemen. He then said he didn't believe that Ayers would be the guy they would target at 11.

 

He didn't say anything with certainty. He just gave his opinion.