A basic Bills problem - lack of an identity

[dave mcbride]

Good NFL teams usually have an identity, and they strive to maintain it over a number of years. Tampa focused on a particular type of defense and defensive player for a decade. Same with the Steelers and the Ravens. SF in the 1980s/1990s did the same with their offense. Since 2001, NE has had a very definable identity on both sides, and they get players who can excel in their system. All Parcells teams strive to do certain things - get big guys on defense and punish people. They focus on certain types of people as a consequence.

 

The Bills have no identity, and haven't had one since John Butler was in town. I think there is a way forward, though, and it can begin with this draft. As I look at them, they're probably going to be competent on offense despite some offensive line issues. They have excellent receivers, a good RB corps, and a good young QB. So I think they're generally fine. A nice TE would help, but I don't think they should devote a first or second round pick on one. If Evans, Lynch, Edwards, Reed, and Owens stay healthy, they're going to move the ball reasonably well. Owens is a *huge* upgrade, and he'll make a big difference. At any rate, I'd leave the offense pretty much as is and focus squarely on the defense.

 

What they essentially need are the guys Jauron had in Chicago: Colvin/Briggs, and Alex Brown. If they draft the equivalent of Brown and Briggs/Colvin, the defense will be very, very good. Schoebel will be back, they're already pretty solid at DT (although getting John Henderson would sure be nice). If if you add a legit DE through the draft (Ayers?) they'll have the making of a very good front four. If they get an LB like Briggs/Colvin-type skills either with the 28th or 42nd pick (Briggs was a 3rd rounder and Colvin a 4th rounder) they'll have the makings of a dominant defense. Whitner is good player at free safety, and should perform better if he doesn't have to cover for the weaker LBs (as he does now). Scott isn't great, but he's functional. The CB trio is very good. Florence, who is a better zone than man player, is an upgrade at nickel. Youbouty probably falls to dime, but he appears to have some skills (he's injury prone, though, and therefore not to be relied upon). Both McGee and McKelvin are quite talented, and this is a big money year for McGee.

 

The point is, the Bills are just a couple of players away from being a very good defensive team. The draft can help in this regard. If they want to establish an identity that'll last a while, that would be my preferred path. In contrast to their offense, they actually adhere to an established system that can work if it has the right players. I'm not saying the offensive system is bad, but I think it's too formative right now to be a plug-in-the-right-guys-and-its-off-to-the-races sort of unit. The defense can be.

 

To that end, I'll be very happy if they draft DE and LB early. Defense wins championships, after all ...

[BuffaloRebound]

Good NFL teams usually have an identity, and they strive to maintain it over a number of years. Tampa focused on a particular type of defense and defensive player for a decade. Same with the Steelers and the Ravens. SF in the 1980s/1990s did the same with their offense. Since 2001, NE has had a very definable identity on both sides, and they get players who can excel in their system. All Parcells teams strive to do certain things - get big guys on defense and punish people. They focus on certain types of people as a consequence.

 

The Bills have no identity, and haven't had one since John Butler was in town. I think there is a way forward, though, and it can begin with this draft. As I look at them, they're probably going to be competent on offense despite some offensive line issues. They have excellent receivers, a good RB corps, and a good young QB. So I think they're generally fine. A nice TE would help, but I don't think they should devote a first or second round pick on one. If Evans, Lynch, Edwards, Reed, and Owens stay healthy, they're going to move the ball reasonably well. Owens is a *huge* upgrade, and he'll make a big difference. At any rate, I'd leave the offense pretty much as is and focus squarely on the defense.

 

What they essentially need are the guys Jauron had in Chicago: Colvin/Briggs, and Alex Brown. If they draft the equivalent of Brown and Briggs/Colvin, the defense will be very, very good. Schoebel will be back, they're already pretty solid at DT (although getting John Henderson would sure be nice). If if you add a legit DE through the draft (Ayers?) they'll have the making of a very good front four. If they get an LB like Briggs/Colvin-type skills either with the 28th or 42nd pick (Briggs was a 3rd rounder and Colvin a 4th rounder) they'll have the makings of a dominant defense. Whitner is good player at free safety, and should perform better if he doesn't have to cover for the weaker LBs (as he does now). Scott isn't great, but he's functional. The CB trio is very good. Florence, who is a better zone than man player, is an upgrade at nickel. Youbouty probably falls to dime, but he appears to have some skills (he's injury prone, though, and therefore not to be relied upon). Both McGee and McKelvin are quite talented, and this is a big money year for McGee.

 

The point is, the Bills are just a couple of players away from being a very good defensive team. The draft can help in this regard. If they want to establish an identity that'll last a while, that would be my preferred path. In contrast to their offense, they actually adhere to an established system that can work if it has the right players. I'm not saying the offensive system is bad, but I think it's too formative right now to be a plug-in-the-right-guys-and-its-off-to-the-races sort of unit. The defense can be.

 

To that end, I'll be very happy if they draft DE and LB early. Defense wins championships, after all ...

 

I actually agree with this. It would be nice to load up on the front 7 with both 1st rounders. Orakpo/Ayers and Cushing/Matthews plus a trade for Henderson and we could actually have a pretty nice defense.

[BillsVet]

Dave, I thought about this tonight as well. Coincidence I guess. Last year, I saw the Cardinals featuring a predominantly passing offense with outstanding wideouts. They didn't attempt to do anything different, because that was their strength.

 

The Giants of 07 ran the ball and put pressure on the QB. They weren't great at passing the ball because they didn't have to be. They won the SB against a highly favored opponent with that strategy.

 

The point to this is that the team must have a vision, based on current and desired personnel. I don't get the feeling Buffalo reflects a vision, and moves are made without much planning. None of the teams you mentioned tried to get cute and do the opposite of their strengths. They went right at opponents and generally won a lot of games.

 

I would like to see a first day pick on the OL, but otherwise, go defense with the other picks. Find a pass rusher and LB to solidify the front 7. There were too many times last season when offenses went on long drives, and I can't soon forget how painful this is to watch. Even if the 11th pick is a situational pass rusher, I'd be fine with that. I think they've improved the run defense, now it's a matter of making the pass a challenge.

 

Nice post Dave. Agree wholeheartedly, particularly the final paragraph.

[offde-fence]

Amen! I've been of the opinion for a few years that this team lacks Identity. What's so troubling about that? Without knowing what you want to be, what your mold of excellence is, then you'll never be able to identify the players that make up that system, and the players, themselves, I would think would do better to have an image of the style of defence they are supposed to imitate. What? you say? I mean, Baltimore, and recently Dallas, and in New England, those defensive players know what they are supposed to do and look like overall. They exude a type of mentality. Baltimore is nasty tough. Dallas is huge and domineering. N.E. is smart and system oriented. They beat you with brains. The Patriots are going to find your weakness and expose it. The Ravens are going to play tough defense and beat you with the run and a supporting passing attack. Dallas is going to overpower you on defense and light it up on offense. What is Buffalo's style? Their blueprint? What do they want to do to the opponent? How will they impose their will when it seems the most they come up with is trying not to lose?

And, I agree, that their Defense is close to having the players to dominate. A fast, impacting DE, a sturdy OLB, and if you could throw in a large DT, as Henderson is mentioned, then I think their Defense could dominate, and their offense could form into a nice scoring machine, taking advantage for once, of good field position and turnovers. They are only a few players away from being solid, too (LG, TE) of impact, and we could put up some points. Our RB's are sweet.

This draft should be about getting as many high caliber, top rated players as possible, ones that will translate now.

[keepthefaith]

Amen! I've been of the opinion for a few years that this team lacks Identity. What's so troubling about that? Without knowing what you want to be, what your mold of excellence is, then you'll never be able to identify the players that make up that system, and the players, themselves, I would think would do better to have an image of the style of defence they are supposed to imitate. What? you say? I mean, Baltimore, and recently Dallas, and in New England, those defensive players know what they are supposed to do and look like overall. They exude a type of mentality. Baltimore is nasty tough. Dallas is huge and domineering. N.E. is smart and system oriented. They beat you with brains. The Patriots are going to find your weakness and expose it. The Ravens are going to play tough defense and beat you with the run and a supporting passing attack. Dallas is going to overpower you on defense and light it up on offense. What is Buffalo's style? Their blueprint? What do they want to do to the opponent? How will they impose their will when it seems the most they come up with is trying not to lose?

And, I agree, that their Defense is close to having the players to dominate. A fast, impacting DE, a sturdy OLB, and if you could throw in a large DT, as Henderson is mentioned, then I think their Defense could dominate, and their offense could form into a nice scoring machine, taking advantage for once, of good field position and turnovers. They are only a few players away from being solid, too (LG, TE) of impact, and we could put up some points. Our RB's are sweet.

This draft should be about getting as many high caliber, top rated players as possible, ones that will translate now.

 

Jauron = vanilla pudding.

 

The Bills will have an identity when they get a coach that can instill one.

[Tcali]

We have an identity.We are the nice guys!! Guys who love their coach doggonit! Guys who play fair on the line and dont cheat.

[Tcali]

Dave, I thought about this tonight as well. Coincidence I guess. Last year, I saw the Cardinals featuring a predominantly passing offense with outstanding wideouts. They didn't attempt to do anything different, because that was their strength.

 

The Giants of 07 ran the ball and put pressure on the QB. They weren't great at passing the ball because they didn't have to be. They won the SB against a highly favored opponent with that strategy.

 

The point to this is that the team must have a vision, based on current and desired personnel. I don't get the feeling Buffalo reflects a vision, and moves are made without much planning. None of the teams you mentioned tried to get cute and do the opposite of their strengths. They went right at opponents and generally won a lot of games.

 

I would like to see a first day pick on the OL, but otherwise, go defense with the other picks. Find a pass rusher and LB to solidify the front 7. There were too many times last season when offenses went on long drives, and I can't soon forget how painful this is to watch. Even if the 11th pick is a situational pass rusher, I'd be fine with that. I think they've improved the run defense, now it's a matter of making the pass a challenge.

 

Nice post Dave. Agree wholeheartedly, particularly the final paragraph.

 

SOLIDIFY?? the front 7?? We have one really good player right now out of our front 7.

Our front 7 needs major construction.

[Orton's Arm]

Good NFL teams usually have an identity, and they strive to maintain it over a number of years. Tampa focused on a particular type of defense and defensive player for a decade. Same with the Steelers and the Ravens. SF in the 1980s/1990s did the same with their offense. Since 2001, NE has had a very definable identity on both sides, and they get players who can excel in their system. All Parcells teams strive to do certain things - get big guys on defense and punish people. They focus on certain types of people as a consequence.

 

The Bills have no identity, and haven't had one since John Butler was in town. I think there is a way forward, though, and it can begin with this draft. As I look at them, they're probably going to be competent on offense despite some offensive line issues. They have excellent receivers, a good RB corps, and a good young QB. So I think they're generally fine. A nice TE would help, but I don't think they should devote a first or second round pick on one. If Evans, Lynch, Edwards, Reed, and Owens stay healthy, they're going to move the ball reasonably well. Owens is a *huge* upgrade, and he'll make a big difference. At any rate, I'd leave the offense pretty much as is and focus squarely on the defense.

 

What they essentially need are the guys Jauron had in Chicago: Colvin/Briggs, and Alex Brown. If they draft the equivalent of Brown and Briggs/Colvin, the defense will be very, very good. Schoebel will be back, they're already pretty solid at DT (although getting John Henderson would sure be nice). If if you add a legit DE through the draft (Ayers?) they'll have the making of a very good front four. If they get an LB like Briggs/Colvin-type skills either with the 28th or 42nd pick (Briggs was a 3rd rounder and Colvin a 4th rounder) they'll have the makings of a dominant defense. Whitner is good player at free safety, and should perform better if he doesn't have to cover for the weaker LBs (as he does now). Scott isn't great, but he's functional. The CB trio is very good. Florence, who is a better zone than man player, is an upgrade at nickel. Youbouty probably falls to dime, but he appears to have some skills (he's injury prone, though, and therefore not to be relied upon). Both McGee and McKelvin are quite talented, and this is a big money year for McGee.

 

The point is, the Bills are just a couple of players away from being a very good defensive team. The draft can help in this regard. If they want to establish an identity that'll last a while, that would be my preferred path. In contrast to their offense, they actually adhere to an established system that can work if it has the right players. I'm not saying the offensive system is bad, but I think it's too formative right now to be a plug-in-the-right-guys-and-its-off-to-the-races sort of unit. The defense can be.

 

To that end, I'll be very happy if they draft DE and LB early. Defense wins championships, after all ...

I agree with a lot of what you've written. But I disagree with some of your conclusions.

 

As you point out, the Bills have some weapons on offense. But to get maximum use out of those weapons, the Bills are going to need a good offensive line. Terrell Owens isn't going to be of much use if Trent spends the game lying on his back!

 

Toward that end, I'd like to see the Bills take a guy with left tackle potential very early, and an offensive guard type guy somewhere between #28 and their 3rd round pick. A good, pass catching TE would also help a lot, and would give Edwards the outlet receiver that any young quarterback (and especially this young quarterback) craves. If you were to add two good offensive linemen and a pass catching TE, this offense would be quite solid. And if you don't add them, the offense might be almost as ineffectual as it was last season.

 

The Bills' defense is most in need of pass rushing linemen. Even more than other defenses, the Tampa-2 lives and dies by getting good pressure from the front four. If there's a chance to get a top tier defensive lineman, such as Raji, the Bills should take it. The hole at OLB, while bothersome, is less important than our needs on both lines. The only way I'd consider an OLB is if I felt I was going to get a substantially better football player than what I could have had by drafting a lineman with that pick.

 

The Bills are at least two good drafts away from being a serious threat to advance deep into the postseason. Rather than try to fill all their holes this year, they should pick a few holes to fill in, and leave the rest for next year. For example, suppose they were to do the following:

 

- trade away their second round pick to move up from #11. Then draft the best available lineman--either an OT or Raji

- Use the #28 pick on Mack (if he's still around), or on some other interior offensive lineman, or on a TE

- Then use your third round pick on either an OLB or a TE

 

That's only two needs that are filled, or three if the third round pick works out. But--if all goes according to plan--you've gotten two very solid football players, including an elite player at a key position (either Raji or the OT).

 

Then in 2010, you once again use your first pick in the draft on a lineman--whether offensive or defensive. The second round pick would probably go to OLB or TE--depending on what you did in 2009. Any nagging, little holes your team had could be addressed either with later round picks or free agents.

 

In year 3 of this plan, you'd once again use a first round pick on a lineman--probably a defensive lineman. Assuming your picks are working out as they should, and assuming you've been trading into draft positions where a lineman really is the best player available, this team is going to become strong on both lines. The defensive line will have received two first round picks, the offensive line will have gotten a first round pick and another pick in the late first or second round.

 

The offensive identity will be of a team that's good at long, many-play drives. The kind of drives which kill defenses by a thousand small cuts. The combination of a good line plus good RBs will lead to a good running game. Good pass protection, plus a number of good options (including the pass catching TE) will lead to a passing game that can move the chains time after time.

 

The team's defensive identity will start with its ability to create very good pressure on QBs from its front four. That pass rush, in conjunction with the Bills' solid secondary, will make it very difficult for teams to succeed with their passing games. The team may have a little more trouble defeating rushing attacks, but the stout defensive line, together with guys like Poz, should keep things under control.

[SouthGeorgiaBillsFan]

I don't mind the idea of drafting two defensive players first round, but we would have to trade for some help on the OL in that case. To think our offense is gonna be "fine" is absurd in the extreme. We *would* have been good...ahem.

[hotwing]

Jauron = vanilla pudding.

 

The Bills will have an identity when they get a coach that can instill one.

 

 

[BobDVA]

Defense wins championships, but Offense sells tickets! The Bills first round picks will both be players on the offensive side of the ball, and their second round pick may be an offensive player as well.

[BillsNYC]

We had an identity in the 90's, exciting no huddle offense, playmaking defense, solid special teams and it worked. Then Donahoe came in and tossed it in the garbage with the uniforms from that decade.

 

We've had no identity since, other than being losers.

[Beerball]

Jauron = vanilla pudding.

 

The Bills will have an identity when they get a coach that can instill one.

Pudding is too firm for your comparison. You ever try to break through the film that forms on the top of pudding? It's tough to eat pudding in the NFL.

 

Some type of watery gruel would be a better choice. Not hot gruel though!

[SouthGeorgiaBillsFan]

We've had no identity since, other than being losers.

 

That's what happens when you continuously trade away your talent.

[murra]

We bought an identity this off-season: Terrell Owens.

[dave mcbride]

I agree with a lot of what you've written. But I disagree with some of your conclusions.

 

As you point out, the Bills have some weapons on offense. But to get maximum use out of those weapons, the Bills are going to need a good offensive line. Terrell Owens isn't going to be of much use if Trent spends the game lying on his back!

 

Toward that end, I'd like to see the Bills take a guy with left tackle potential very early, and an offensive guard type guy somewhere between #28 and their 3rd round pick. A good, pass catching TE would also help a lot, and would give Edwards the outlet receiver that any young quarterback (and especially this young quarterback) craves. If you were to add two good offensive linemen and a pass catching TE, this offense would be quite solid. And if you don't add them, the offense might be almost as ineffectual as it was last season.

 

The Bills' defense is most in need of pass rushing linemen. Even more than other defenses, the Tampa-2 lives and dies by getting good pressure from the front four. If there's a chance to get a top tier defensive lineman, such as Raji, the Bills should take it. The hole at OLB, while bothersome, is less important than our needs on both lines. The only way I'd consider an OLB is if I felt I was going to get a substantially better football player than what I could have had by drafting a lineman with that pick.

 

The Bills are at least two good drafts away from being a serious threat to advance deep into the postseason. Rather than try to fill all their holes this year, they should pick a few holes to fill in, and leave the rest for next year. For example, suppose they were to do the following:

 

- trade away their second round pick to move up from #11. Then draft the best available lineman--either an OT or Raji

- Use the #28 pick on Mack (if he's still around), or on some other interior offensive lineman, or on a TE

- Then use your third round pick on either an OLB or a TE

 

That's only two needs that are filled, or three if the third round pick works out. But--if all goes according to plan--you've gotten two very solid football players, including an elite player at a key position (either Raji or the OT).

 

Then in 2010, you once again use your first pick in the draft on a lineman--whether offensive or defensive. The second round pick would probably go to OLB or TE--depending on what you did in 2009. Any nagging, little holes your team had could be addressed either with later round picks or free agents.

 

In year 3 of this plan, you'd once again use a first round pick on a lineman--probably a defensive lineman. Assuming your picks are working out as they should, and assuming you've been trading into draft positions where a lineman really is the best player available, this team is going to become strong on both lines. The defensive line will have received two first round picks, the offensive line will have gotten a first round pick and another pick in the late first or second round.

 

The offensive identity will be of a team that's good at long, many-play drives. The kind of drives which kill defenses by a thousand small cuts. The combination of a good line plus good RBs will lead to a good running game. Good pass protection, plus a number of good options (including the pass catching TE) will lead to a passing game that can move the chains time after time.

 

The team's defensive identity will start with its ability to create very good pressure on QBs from its front four. That pass rush, in conjunction with the Bills' solid secondary, will make it very difficult for teams to succeed with their passing games. The team may have a little more trouble defeating rushing attacks, but the stout defensive line, together with guys like Poz, should keep things under control.

If you look at the Bears over the years (including after Jauron left), they've gotten good pressure from their LBs, and LBs have been core to that defense overall. I know that some teams discount the importance of linebacker, but I don't think the Bills should. Keith Ellison simply isn't good enough. If the Bills had had someone like Briggs, they could have shifted Mitchell over to the weak side last year and gotten both some pressure and stoutness from the strong side too. The Bills probably would have taken Keith Rivers last year if he hadn't been taken by Cincy, and it would have been just as good a pick as McKelvin.

[Bill from NYC]

If you look at the Bears over the years (including after Jauron left), they've gotten good pressure from their LBs, and LBs have been core to that defense overall. I know that some teams discount the importance of linebacker, but I don't think the Bills should. Keith Ellison simply isn't good enough. If the Bills had had someone like Briggs, they could have shifted Mitchell over to the weak side last year and gotten both some pressure and stoutness from the strong side too. The Bills probably would have taken Keith Rivers last year if he hadn't been taken by Cincy, and it would have been just as good a pick as McKelvin.

 

Great post Dave. Branden Albert would be looking good right now too, ya know?

[flomoe]

The Bills need playmakers, especially on Defense now that Owens is a Bill. Sure a pass catching TE might be nice in the first few rounds but there is only (1) ball on Offense. I say load up the front seven, or grab a top of the line Strong Safety, if there is one.

[dave mcbride]

I don't mind the idea of drafting two defensive players first round, but we would have to trade for some help on the OL in that case. To think our offense is gonna be "fine" is absurd in the extreme. We *would* have been good...ahem.

Assuming TO is healthy and as good as he was the last couple of years, he will be the second best offensive player in team history after OJ. That is pretty much inarguable. He is without question the Bills biggest upgrade on offense since Jim Kelly left the USFL for Western NY.

 

Consider the offenses he's played on over the course of his career. Not once did they finish in the bottom half of the league if you factor out the season in which he was kicked off of the team (see below). In fact, in the seven games he played in 2005, the Eagles averaged 374 yards per game. To put that that in perspective, the Bills have averaged more than 374 yards per season only once in their history: 1991. Think about that for a second -- not once has a team with TO on it finished in the bottom half of the league in offense in 13 seasons. In most of those seasons, he was the best player on whatever team he played for.

 

That's why I can't get too worked up about Jason Peters. Peters has never played on an offense that finish in the top 24, much less the top half of the league. And it's not as if TO was always playing alongside great LTs.

 

I still don't think it has hit home among Bills fans how good he is. He is significantly more relevant to offensive success than Jason Peters, and the numbers bear this out in a big - indeed inarguable - way.

 

Team offensive yardage ranking on teams with TO:

 

1996: 6th

1997: 12th

1998: 1st

1999: 10th

2000: 4th

2001: 4th

2002: 8th

2003: 5th

2004: 9th

2005: * -- near the top when he played; near the bottom after he was kicked off the team following game 7 (19th overall)

2006: 5th

2007: 3rd

2008: 13th (note that the decrepit Brad Johnson started 3 games midseason, and the Cowboys averaged a pathetic 232 yards/game on offense in those games. That brought the ranking down all by itself. In the other 13 games, they averaged 370.6 yards/game, which would have qualified for second best in Bills history after the 1991 season).

[Thoner7]

Identitiy the Bills should have: A power team that dominantes in the trenches because of their cold weather climate and blue collar atmosphere.

 

PLan to aquire said identity:

 

11- Best OT (A.Smith/Oher)

28- Best DE (Brown/M.Johnson/Barwin/English)

42- Best OG/C (Mack/Unger/Robinson)

75- Best OG/C (Wood/Caldwell/Ulbrich)

Trade picks for Henderson

Cut/trade Kelsay (S.Johnson can play some LDE, some DT)

 

Starting D Line: M.Johnson, Stroud, Henderson, Schobel (Reserves: Denney, S.Johnson, Williams, Ellis)

Starting O Line: Oher, Robinson, Caldwell, Butler, Walker (Reserves: Chambers, Bell, Hartinger)

- Dont forget that we rotate our D lineman often, and that Peters, Fowler, and Butler all missed significant time last year. The quality of the depth is almost as important as the quality of the starters.

 

Identity aquired.

 

 

The best part of this is I think the Bills have positioned themselfs for this type of draft. We have no needs at WR, RB, CB, or QB. You could make an arguement for safety but its not really that bog of a need. TE and LB need help but unless there is great value there I dont see a need to reach for one. Our biggest needs are a DE, OT, and OG/C. With 4 picks inthe top 75 I think we could fill all three of those needs. Time to target some BIG men.