2009 Triple Crown

[Mark Vader]

We are just a month away from the Kentucky Derby, so I wanted to ask all you handicappers is there a dominant horse out there that can end the Triple Crown drought, or is the field of contenders not that strong enough?

[Fezmid]

SmartyJonesWinsTheTripleCrown.com!

[Albany,n.y.]

I doubt we'll see a triple crown winner because the two top horses (IMO) are lightly raced and very close in talent that I can't see one of them winning all 3. My top 2 are the 1-2 finishers of the Florida Derby-Quality Road and Dunkirk. I think Quality Road is the better of the two because he's got more tactical speed and can get the jump on Dunkirk, just like Sunday Silence used to do to Easy Goer and Affirmed used to do to Alydar. One unknown is if Dunkirk can get into the Derby due to graded stakes earnings rules. I think he'll make it, but if he doesn't & Quality Road wins the Kentucky Derby without Dunkirk in there, he'll have to face a rested Dunkirk when the two meet again in the Preakness or Belmont-another factor to deny the triple crown. Now after yesterday, a lot of folks are all ga-ga over the Gotham & Wood winner I Want Revenge-I'm just not that into I Want Revenge. I think he's peaked too soon & I'm still not impressed by any of the horses he has beaten. Remember, in California he was just a second rate horse to Santa Anita Derby winner Pioneerof the Nile (POTN). Also his trainer Jeff Mullins, has done this sort of stuff before, had a horse who won the last major Derby prep. From 2003-5 Mullins trained the winners of the Santa Anita Derby with horses who did nothing in Kentucky. Just because he shipped this act to NY this year, doesn't make I Want Revenge a horse who will be a threat to my top 2. POTN has good credentials over stynthetic surfaces, but is untested on dirt & his speed #s in California are similar to last year's California darling-Colonel John-who didn't hit the board in Kentucky last year. I don't see much coming out of next week's races, though Old Fashioned can get back some of his lost luster with a convincing win in the Arkansas Derby & a wide open Blue Grass can produce a contender, although the best possible result of the Blue Grass would be the English horse who has automatically qualified for a spot in the Derby to run so poorly that his owners are too embarrassed to run him in the Derby & block a much better candidate like Dunkirk. The best horse in the Bluegrass is probably Charitable Man, who hasn't been out since a 7 furlong sprint last September at Belmont. He's never been further than 7f, never raced on polytrack, but has a ton of talent, already beating Louisiana's horse Friesan Fire. It would be asking a lot to send him to the Derby, but a likely win in the Bluegrass might give his connections Derby Fever. Speaking of Friesan Fire, he is going to try to win the Derby with no mile & one eight prep & off a 7 week layoff-I doubt he'll get it done. I expect Theregoesjojo to run well in either the Bluegrass or the Lexington and have enough $ to get into the gate in Louisville, but all his better performance will do is validate my top two horses. Quality Road & Dunkirk will prove to be the cream of this 3 year old crop.

[OGTEleven]

I doubt we'll see a triple crown winner because the two top horses (IMO) are lightly raced and very close in talent that I can't see one of them winning all 3. My top 2 are the 1-2 finishers of the Florida Derby-Quality Road and Dunkirk. I think Quality Road is the better of the two because he's got more tactical speed and can get the jump on Dunkirk, just like Sunday Silence used to do to Easy Goer and Affirmed used to do to Alydar. One unknown is if Dunkirk can get into the Derby due to graded stakes earnings rules. I think he'll make it, but if he doesn't & Quality Road wins the Kentucky Derby without Dunkirk in there, he'll have to face a rested Dunkirk when the two meet again in the Preakness or Belmont-another factor to deny the triple crown. Now after yesterday, a lot of folks are all ga-ga over the Gotham & Wood winner I Want Revenge-I'm just not that into I Want Revenge. I think he's peaked too soon & I'm still not impressed by any of the horses he has beaten. Remember, in California he was just a second rate horse to Santa Anita Derby winner Pioneerof the Nile (POTN). Also his trainer Jeff Mullins, has done this sort of stuff before, had a horse who won the last major Derby prep. From 2003-5 Mullins trained the winners of the Santa Anita Derby with horses who did nothing in Kentucky. Just because he shipped this act to NY this year, doesn't make I Want Revenge a horse who will be a threat to my top 2. POTN has good credentials over stynthetic surfaces, but is untested on dirt & his speed #s in California are similar to last year's California darling-Colonel John-who didn't hit the board in Kentucky last year. I don't see much coming out of next week's races, though Old Fashioned can get back some of his lost luster with a convincing win in the Arkansas Derby & a wide open Blue Grass can produce a contender, although the best possible result of the Blue Grass would be the English horse who has automatically qualified for a spot in the Derby to run so poorly that his owners are too embarrassed to run him in the Derby & block a much better candidate like Dunkirk. The best horse in the Bluegrass is probably Charitable Man, who hasn't been out since a 7 furlong sprint last September at Belmont. He's never been further than 7f, never raced on polytrack, but has a ton of talent, already beating Louisiana's horse Friesan Fire. It would be asking a lot to send him to the Derby, but a likely win in the Bluegrass might give his connections Derby Fever. Speaking of Friesan Fire, he is going to try to win the Derby with no mile & one eight prep & off a 7 week layoff-I doubt he'll get it done. I expect Theregoesjojo to run well in either the Bluegrass or the Lexington and have enough $ to get into the gate in Louisville, but all his better performance will do is validate my top two horses. Quality Road & Dunkirk will prove to be the cream of this 3 year old crop.

Interesting thoughts.

 

I usually only bet during Saratoga and at the Breeders Cup. After that I wait until the Derby. I try to only watch the preps after my handicapping has begun. I do this so I can avoid chasing a horse that I see run a big race.

 

I have seen enough of this years three year old crop to think that a Triple Crown winner is improbable. I don't think they are a bad group but I don't see a lot of separation. I agree with your opinion on I Want Revenge and think he will be overbet (I reserve the right to change my mind). I am not real big on Quality Road or Dunkirk either though. I'm interested to see how Old Fashioned bounces back too.

 

I saw three of the contenders run at Saratoga last year. Desert Party ran in the Sanford (I think he won). Pioneer of the Nile broke his maiden on grass. Neither impressed me all that much. I realize it was a long time ago. The other horse I saw was extremely impressive breaking his maiden. His name is Regal Ransom. He looked great and I really liked his breeding for going longer. I'm pretty sure he is a Distorted Humor with Red Ransom as a broodmare sire. He didn't run as well later in the season. He just surprised his connections by beating stablemate Desert Party in Dubai. He will be a longshot but I am going to give him a look.

 

The other horse that will be an interesting semi-longshot for me is Chocolate Candy. He looks as if he'll improve with disntance and may also benefit from the synthetic to dirt switch.

[Dwight Drane]

I Want Revenge is the real deal. I don't see him as a Superhorse, but the only question going into yesterday was if he loved the inner track. Well.....between propping at the gate, running into trouble, and getting bounced around, he could have won by 8 yesterday without blinking.

 

Now he has had 2 taxing efforts saying he might bounce, but he is built like a firehydrant and Stephen Got Even usually gets you classic horses when he fires that quality sperm. I'm not a giant fan of the connections now, but the horse and rider seem to have it together.

 

The problem with the west coast horses....nobody has moved forward off the polytrack except I Want Revenge, and he looks like a dirt horse. Chocolate Candy has an interesting run line, but I don't like the way he looks.

 

The problem with the Florida horses....that track has been playing speed this season. Quality Road looks like the real deal, and if I had to guess, he can win the Preakness. Dunkirk I can't get hot and bothered for when you consider he is an Unbridled's Song trained by Pletcher. That equals 13th place in the Derby, 10 month layoff, and winning stakes on the grass at Saratoga next year.

 

Theregoesjojo is very interesting to me. He is a little guy, but if he is left to settle midpack and make one giant run at the quarter pole, I can see him getting the Derby trip in style. He is a pro....but he wasn't going to win in Florida even getting slammed shut. McPeek has been backtracking and sounds cooled on him a little, but if you let him run his race he is my mild longshot. He reminds me a lot of Peace Rules who was small, smart, and would always show up on the fringe of big races and manage to pop some big wins up. Even if it is on the turf, I can see him making a few million in his career.

 

Win Willy has come out of nowhere with modest connections, but he is a BEAUTIFUL horse. He has the running style to pull it off. His sire won the Derby, but Monarchos has been a dud at stud. He looks a lot like his grandsire however, and similar to Wait a While, who is all class. I felt like a jerk after having him in my trifecta last race, but not boxed. I won't make that mistake again in the Derby.

 

My bomb is Take the Points. He is a classic looking horse, and a plodder in style even though he has speed. Nobody gives him any respect, and he is by a fairly new sire in Even the Score, who gets horses that can move well. It's funny I like Even the Score because his daddy is Unbridled's Song, the daddy of Dunkirk I just bashed, and this horse is trained by Pletcher. I can just see him having enough oomph to pass tired speed horses yet be far enough ahead of closers to get a piece of the superfecta. I think he will be better on dirt as well.

 

Plenty of other quality horses with a shot, but I will look at the core of I Want Revenge (4-1), Win Willy (20-1), Theregoesjojo (30-1) if he runs....and then play trifectas and superfectas with Quality Road(6-1), Take the Points (60-1)and West Side Bernie (40-1).

 

My hope is that Quality Road runs mediocre and I can get him in the Preakness at 8-1 or so, all things being equal.

 

Or I can just hand over my $200 now and save the pain of watching.

[DPR4444]

Below is the Belmont draw. Any predictions?

I'm trying to come up with an Exacta with Mine That Bird and someone else.

Any tips??

 

 

1 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer Garrett Gomez 10-1

 

2 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 4-1

 

3 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty Edgar Prado 15-1

 

4 Summer Bird Tim Ice Kent Desormeaux 12-1

 

5 Luv Gov D. Wayne Lukas Miguel Mena 20-1

 

6 Charitable Man Kiaran McLaughlin Alan Garcia 3-1

 

7 Mine That Bird Bennie Woolley Jr. Calvin Borel 2-1

 

8 Flying Private D. Wayne Lukas Julien Leparoux 12-1

 

9 Miner's Escape Nick Zito Jose Lezcano 15-1

 

10 Brave Victory Nick Zito Rajiv Maragh 15-1

[KD in CA]

Below is the Belmont draw. Any predictions?

I'm trying to come up with an Exacta with Mine That Bird and someone else.

Any tips??

 

Mine That Bird has his jockey back, so that'll help. But I've read some glowing stuff about Charitable Man. His handlers are very confident about the race. I know that doesn't exactly give you a huge payday on the exacta though.

[Albany,n.y.]

Two horse race between Dunkirk & Charitable Man-but that doesn't mean they will run 1-2. One of these two wins, the other could run out of the money. Dunkirk probably wins or runs up the track. Charitable Man will hit the board. Mine that Bird will run somewhere between 2 & 4, won't win.

[Dwight Drane]

Summer Bird......good looking horse....has a big run in him once he gets going....made a nice move in the Derby but went about 10 wide as Mine That Bird took the rail. He would have won Arkansas with a good trip possibly. 6 weeks off....his daddy won the Belmont...his momma's daddy would have won the Belmont........I like it.