Astrobot Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 I think we are sitting in a great spot at #11, but I don't think the players we want will be there. Some will be gone (Aaron Curry or Everette Brown), and some would be available a bit later (Pettigrew, Peria Jerry). I did some reasearch on who might trade up and why. (Drafts using Draftek's Online Draft Simulator, www.drafttek.com) SCENARIO #1: Philadelphia looks less and less likely to be that trade partner despite their #21 and #28 picks. They think Moreno will fall to them at #21, and Hakeem Nicks at #28. Why trade up? Well, if they want to assure themselves of a LT, they may do it. MODERATELY LIKELY ----------------21 Buffalo Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma St ----------------28 Buffalo Robert Ayers DE43 Tennessee ----------------42 Buffalo Evander Hood DT43 Missouri ----------------75 Buffalo Andy Levitre OG Oregon State ----------------110 Buffalo Jonathan Casillas OLB43 Wisconsin ----------------147 Buffalo Cecil Newton OC Tennessee State SCENARIO #2: The NY Jets want a QB, and trade their 1st and 2nd rounder (see other thread). LEAST LIKELY ----------------17 Buffalo Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma St ----------------42 Buffalo Evander Hood DT43 Missouri ----------------52 Buffalo Paul Kruger DE43 Utah ----------------75 Buffalo Andy Levitre OG Oregon State ----------------110 Buffalo Jonathan Casillas OLB43 Wisconsin SCENARIO #3: Houston at #15 sees they won't get Everette Brown, so they trade up with Buffalo to get Cushing. They give us RD3#77. MOST LIKELY ----------------15 Buffalo Brian Cushing OLB43 USC ----------------75 Buffalo Lawrence Sidbury Jr. DE43 Richmond ----------------77 Buffalo Shawn Nelson TE Southern Miss ----------------110 Buffalo Xavier Fulton OG Illinois SCENARIO #4: Chicago wants one of the Top 4 Left Tackles and needs to leapfrog Washington. They give us their #18, #84, and #154. MODERATELY LIKELY ----------------18 Buffalo Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma St ----------------42 Buffalo Evander Hood DT43 Missouri ----------------75 Buffalo Lawrence Sidbury Jr. DE43 Richmond ----------------84 Buffalo Andy Levitre OG Oregon State ----------------110 Buffalo Jonathan Casillas OLB43 Wisconsin SCENARIO #5: Minnesota at #22 wants Malcolm Jenkins, and they know that New Orleans at #14 has expressed an interest. They offer their #22 and their #54 for the chance at Jenkins. MODERATELY LIKELY ----------------22 Buffalo Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma St ----------------42 Buffalo Evander Hood DT43 Missouri ----------------54 Buffalo Paul Kruger DE43 Utah ----------------75 Buffalo Andy Levitre OG Oregon State ----------------110 Buffalo Jason Williams OLB43 Western Illinois SCENARIO #7: As in my sig, Trade Down With Detroit for their #20 and #33. They get Curry at #1 and a LT at #11. VERY LIKELY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fingon Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 Jonathan Casillas is sky rocketing... he used to be a 6-7th round pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marauderswr80 Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 Evander Hood is on the way up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybob Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 I think we are sitting in a great spot at #11, but I don't think the players we want will be there. Some will be gone (Aaron Curry or Everette Brown), and some would be available a bit later (Pettigrew, Peria Jerry). I did some reasearch on who might trade up and why. (Drafts using Draftek's Online Draft Simulator, www.drafttek.com) SCENARIO #1: Philadelphia looks less and less likely to be that trade partner despite their #21 and #28 picks. They think Moreno will fall to them at #21, and Hakeem Nicks at #28. Why trade up? Well, if they want to assure themselves of a LT, they may do it. MODERATELY LIKELY ----------------21 Buffalo Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma St ----------------28 Buffalo Robert Ayers DE43 Tennessee ----------------42 Buffalo Evander Hood DT43 Missouri ----------------75 Buffalo Andy Levitre OG Oregon State ----------------110 Buffalo Jonathan Casillas OLB43 Wisconsin ----------------147 Buffalo Cecil Newton OC Tennessee State SCENARIO #2: The NY Jets want a QB, and trade their 1st and 2nd rounder (see other thread). LEAST LIKELY ----------------17 Buffalo Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma St ----------------42 Buffalo Evander Hood DT43 Missouri ----------------52 Buffalo Paul Kruger DE43 Utah ----------------75 Buffalo Andy Levitre OG Oregon State ----------------110 Buffalo Jonathan Casillas OLB43 Wisconsin SCENARIO #3: Houston at #15 sees they won't get Everette Brown, so they trade up with Buffalo to get Cushing. They give us RD3#77. MOST LIKELY ----------------15 Buffalo Brian Cushing OLB43 USC ----------------75 Buffalo Lawrence Sidbury Jr. DE43 Richmond ----------------77 Buffalo Shawn Nelson TE Southern Miss ----------------110 Buffalo Xavier Fulton OG Illinois SCENARIO #4: Chicago wants one of the Top 4 Left Tackles and needs to leapfrog Washington. They give us their #18, #84, and #154. MODERATELY LIKELY ----------------18 Buffalo Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma St ----------------42 Buffalo Evander Hood DT43 Missouri ----------------75 Buffalo Lawrence Sidbury Jr. DE43 Richmond ----------------84 Buffalo Andy Levitre OG Oregon State ----------------110 Buffalo Jonathan Casillas OLB43 Wisconsin SCENARIO #5: Minnesota at #22 wants Malcolm Jenkins, and they know that New Orleans at #14 has expressed an interest. They offer their #22 and their #54 for the chance at Jenkins. MODERATELY LIKELY ----------------22 Buffalo Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma St ----------------42 Buffalo Evander Hood DT43 Missouri ----------------54 Buffalo Paul Kruger DE43 Utah ----------------75 Buffalo Andy Levitre OG Oregon State ----------------110 Buffalo Jason Williams OLB43 Western Illinois SCENARIO #7: As in my sig, Trade Down With Detroit for their #20 and #33. They get Curry at #1 and a LT at #11. VERY LIKELY SCENARIO #1 - I don't think they'd give us both #1s unless we throw something back like a 3rd or at least switch #2s SCENARIO #7- I think this could be very likely except Detroit takes a QB and a OT or an OT and a QB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SKOOBY Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 The Detroit scenario has legs and puts us in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 SCENARIO #3: Houston at #15 sees they won't get Everette Brown, so they trade up with Buffalo to get Cushing. They give us RD3#77. MOST LIKELY----------------15 Buffalo Brian Cushing OLB43 USC ----------------75 Buffalo Lawrence Sidbury Jr. DE43 Richmond ----------------77 Buffalo Shawn Nelson TE Southern Miss ----------------110 Buffalo Xavier Fulton OG Illinois Considering there will probably be other teams looking to trade down, and the fact that the Bills are fairly conservative on draft day, I wouldn't categorize any trade as "Very likely". "Moderately likely" is probably the top of the likelihood scale, IMO...and that even probably overstates things. With that said, I don't quite understand the Houston scenario. If Houston trades with Buffalo, in order to get Cushing, how does Buffalo end up with Cushing at #15? BTW, I love your scenarios, so I hope you understand I'm not really being critical, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Rob Johnson Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 SCENARIO #1 - I don't think they'd give us both #1s unless we throw something back like a 3rd or at least switch #2sSCENARIO #7- I think this could be very likely except Detroit takes a QB and a OT or an OT and a QB Agree on #1, scenario most likely would be for their 1st and 2nd rounders, not both 1st round picks other than the fact that the lions need a ton of players and so the argument could be made that they would want to keep all of their picks, i think it makes alot of sense for them to trade #20 and #33 and move back up into the low teens and take Andre Smith or Michael Oher to protect their franchise QB. This obviously assuming they draft Stafford #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsaikotic Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 SCENARIO #3: Houston at #15 sees they won't get Everette Brown, so they trade up with Buffalo to get Cushing. They give us RD3#77. MOST LIKELY----------------15 Buffalo Brian Cushing OLB43 USC ----------------75 Buffalo Lawrence Sidbury Jr. DE43 Richmond ----------------77 Buffalo Shawn Nelson TE Southern Miss ----------------110 Buffalo Xavier Fulton OG Illinois along with the misstype of who your taking at #15, I see #42 missing..I doubt we lose our 2nd round pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deep2evans Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 Thanks for doing this Astrobot. I've been reading your draft posts for years and really enjoy them. I hope you find a job in this business somehow, if you haven't already, because you clearly have a passion for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tipster19 Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 I think we are sitting in a great spot at #11, but I don't think the players we want will be there. Some will be gone (Aaron Curry or Everette Brown), and some would be available a bit later (Pettigrew, Peria Jerry). I did some reasearch on who might trade up and why. (Drafts using Draftek's Online Draft Simulator, www.drafttek.com) SCENARIO #1: Philadelphia looks less and less likely to be that trade partner despite their #21 and #28 picks. They think Moreno will fall to them at #21, and Hakeem Nicks at #28. Why trade up? Well, if they want to assure themselves of a LT, they may do it. MODERATELY LIKELY ----------------21 Buffalo Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma St ----------------28 Buffalo Robert Ayers DE43 Tennessee ----------------42 Buffalo Evander Hood DT43 Missouri ----------------75 Buffalo Andy Levitre OG Oregon State ----------------110 Buffalo Jonathan Casillas OLB43 Wisconsin ----------------147 Buffalo Cecil Newton OC Tennessee State SCENARIO #2: The NY Jets want a QB, and trade their 1st and 2nd rounder (see other thread). LEAST LIKELY ----------------17 Buffalo Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma St ----------------42 Buffalo Evander Hood DT43 Missouri ----------------52 Buffalo Paul Kruger DE43 Utah ----------------75 Buffalo Andy Levitre OG Oregon State ----------------110 Buffalo Jonathan Casillas OLB43 Wisconsin SCENARIO #3: Houston at #15 sees they won't get Everette Brown, so they trade up with Buffalo to get Cushing. They give us RD3#77. MOST LIKELY ----------------15 Buffalo Brian Cushing OLB43 USC ----------------75 Buffalo Lawrence Sidbury Jr. DE43 Richmond ----------------77 Buffalo Shawn Nelson TE Southern Miss ----------------110 Buffalo Xavier Fulton OG Illinois SCENARIO #4: Chicago wants one of the Top 4 Left Tackles and needs to leapfrog Washington. They give us their #18, #84, and #154. MODERATELY LIKELY ----------------18 Buffalo Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma St ----------------42 Buffalo Evander Hood DT43 Missouri ----------------75 Buffalo Lawrence Sidbury Jr. DE43 Richmond ----------------84 Buffalo Andy Levitre OG Oregon State ----------------110 Buffalo Jonathan Casillas OLB43 Wisconsin SCENARIO #5: Minnesota at #22 wants Malcolm Jenkins, and they know that New Orleans at #14 has expressed an interest. They offer their #22 and their #54 for the chance at Jenkins. MODERATELY LIKELY ----------------22 Buffalo Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma St ----------------42 Buffalo Evander Hood DT43 Missouri ----------------54 Buffalo Paul Kruger DE43 Utah ----------------75 Buffalo Andy Levitre OG Oregon State ----------------110 Buffalo Jason Williams OLB43 Western Illinois SCENARIO #7: As in my sig, Trade Down With Detroit for their #20 and #33. They get Curry at #1 and a LT at #11. VERY LIKELY In scenarios #1, #2 and #5 you have us taking OG Andy Levitre with the 75th pick but in scenario #3 you have us taking DE Lawrence Sidbury Jr. and in scenario #4 you got us taking Sidbury Jr again at #75 and Levitre at the 84th pick. Why the difference in scenarios at the same slot and us being able to take Levitre a rd later in scenario #4? If we are able to take Levitre at #84, then why not do this right across the board? along with the misstype of who your taking at #15, I see #42 missing..I doubt we lose our 2nd round pick I noticed that too. It must be a typo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In space no one can hear Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 Astro there is no way the Eagles spend their two first round picks on a RB and WR. Check their track record under Andy Reid, it's just not happening. Adjust the computer as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybob Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 Agree on #1, scenario most likely would be for their 1st and 2nd rounders, not both 1st round picks other than the fact that the lions need a ton of players and so the argument could be made that they would want to keep all of their picks, i think it makes alot of sense for them to trade #20 and #33 and move back up into the low teens and take Andre Smith or Michael Oher to protect their franchise QB. This obviously assuming they draft Stafford #1. Stafford 1a and Andre Smith or Oher 1b is one way to go but Jason Smith 1a Mark Sanchez 1b might make sense too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d_wag Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 i don't see why the lions would have any interest in trading up - the team went winless so it's not like they are that one piece away from a championship..........they need as many picks as they can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsGuyInMalta Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 The Detroit scenario has legs and puts us in a good spot. 100% agree. The Lions have already said they want to build around their top draft picks. If they can use the #1 overall on Curry, well then there's the defensive monster you can win games and sell jerseys with. If they wait until the #20 rolls around, the best they can hope for is a solid, but albeit not-elite OT to work with. Can you build around a player like that? Sure...BUT it may be smarter for them to trade up to #11 with Buffalo, grab a QB that is available or get a stud OT. I really think they are hoping a QB falls to around that area, that way you can build an offense around him AND continue to market him to your fans. Its tough to market OTs, as valuable as they are. But the Lions need to win back their fanbase, drafting the top OLB and a top QB would be a great way to do it. I could see a trade like this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
auburnbillsbacker Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 It seems like it is very likely that Pettigrew will fall out of the first round. Kirwain, Ryan and many others have noted that there is not much buzz about Pettigrew. They think he is too slow to be a huge impact in the passing game. The guy that I would love to see the bills draft is Maybin, but after his pro day, I think he will be gone by 11. So at this stage, I am lost as to what the bills should do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogbyte Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 If Pettigrev falls out of the 1st round, I see the Bills trading their 2nd and 3rd picks to NE to jump up and get him. I then see NE trading those picks for the lions 1st pick in 2010. Or maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim Anderson's Lunch Pail Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 Couple of things... I like your scenarios. I don't necessarily agree with them, but I love seeing ideas. - I really don't think Paul Kruger is still going to be around in the third round, especially witht he 3-4 sprouting up everywhere - Lawrence Sidbury Jr. kind of falls in the same category as Kruger, but I could see him being a high 2nd round pick. He's got a lot of upside. - In scenario 1 or the scenario in your sig, I would rather snag C Alex Mack. I feel pretty confident that he'll be there. This year's crop of Cs is much better than last year, so I think teams will wait a little bit before they start taking them. - I actually see scenario 2 as very likely, if Sanchez is on the board. Granted, if we make the pick New York could try to trade with Denver after us, but you never know. The wild card in that scenario is Washington. New York cannot assume that they will not take Sanchez. It is very possible. So if Sanchez falls, anything can happen. In fact, I could see a trade along the lines of their first, a third this year, and a third next year. From Buffalo's perspective, they'll still get as good a player at 17 as they can at 11, and they'll pick up two extra picks. For the Jets, if they really believe Sanchez is going to be a great QB, giving up two 3rds is nothing. Under that scenario, it makes you wonder: If the Bills believe Sanchez will be a great QB, would they be willing to let a division rival draft him, getting only two 3rds in return? Probably not. Then again, they might be able to do the same deal with Denver one spot later, and Belichick's boy will surely jump at extra picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 How many times have the Bills traded down in the 1st round? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fastro Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 NFL Network previewed the Eagles yesterday and said that the Eagles are supposedly shopping their 2 picks to move up and add Crabtree as a primary target for McNabb. The 2 picks equate to about the 8th draft pick from the draft pick value chart and would be a nice acquisition for the Bills. Not to hijack a thread but would the 2 picks be worth passing on Crabtree if he were to fall to 11th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim Anderson's Lunch Pail Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 NFL Network previewed the Eagles yesterday and said that the Eagles are supposedly shopping their 2 picks to move up and add Crabtree as a primary target for McNabb. The 2 picks equate to about the 8th draft pick from the draft pick value chart and would be a nice acquisition for the Bills. Not to hijack a thread but would the 2 picks be worth passing on Crabtree if he were to fall to 11th? Unquestionably. I think Michael Crabtree will be a tremendous player, but based on the Bills' circumstances and needs, we cannot justify taking him in the first round if he fell to us. If you can trade our first and a third for Philadelphia's two picks, you do it all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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