DC Tom Posted November 3, 2004 Posted November 3, 2004 Presuming Bush wins Florida (which looks likely), and Kerry wins Ohio (which is uncertain, but I expect that'll be the case.) With half the polls in, Bush is well-positioned to take both Wisconsin and New Mexico (both of which Gore took in 2000, I believe). Assuming all else remains as-is right now or mimics 2000...Bush wins with 273 EC votes. So Bush doesn't necessarily need Ohio, the way things are going.
John Adams Posted November 3, 2004 Posted November 3, 2004 Wisc and NM would be the first states to flip from 2000. That is newsworthy. I heard earlier though that NM has an insane # of absentee ballots- in the hundreds of thousands, and it would be hard to project NM tonight if it was close. Where are all those absentee ballots coming from in NM?!?
DC Tom Posted November 3, 2004 Author Posted November 3, 2004 Wisc and NM would be the first states to flip from 2000. That is newsworthy. I heard earlier though that NM has an insane # of absentee ballots- in the hundreds of thousands, and it would be hard to project NM tonight if it was close. Where are all those absentee ballots coming from in NM?!? 98261[/snapback] My mother, for one. Maintains a residence in NM, but actually spends about ten months out of the year driving around the country in an RV with her boyfriend.
Alaska Darin Posted November 3, 2004 Posted November 3, 2004 My mother, for one. Maintains a residence in NM, but actually spends about ten months out of the year driving around the country in an RV with her boyfriend. 98263[/snapback] Does NM have favorable tax laws or something?
CosmicBills Posted November 3, 2004 Posted November 3, 2004 If Kerry takes Ohio and PA, doesn't that essentially give him the election though? I thought all he needed essentially was 10 EC votes from Bush and Ohio gives him 20.
John Adams Posted November 3, 2004 Posted November 3, 2004 Does NM have favorable tax laws or something? 98268[/snapback] NM is supposed to be the biggest Libertarian turnout AD. BTW, looks like Badnarik is outperforming Nader.
Alaska Darin Posted November 3, 2004 Posted November 3, 2004 If Kerry takes Ohio and PA, doesn't that essentially give him the election though? I thought all he needed essentially was 10 EC votes from Bush and Ohio gives him 20. 98270[/snapback] That's implying he carries every state Mr. Gore carried.
KD in CA Posted November 3, 2004 Posted November 3, 2004 Doesn't sounds likely. Kerry is leading in WI and NH (and MN and Iowa). I think Bush wins Ohio or he's out.
CosmicBills Posted November 3, 2004 Posted November 3, 2004 Doesn't sounds likely. Kerry is leading in WI and NH (and MN and Iowa). I think Bush wins Ohio or he's out. 98275[/snapback] On Fox News their on the ground reporter says she feels Kerry will take Ohio cause Clevland's votes haven't been counted yet...
John Adams Posted November 3, 2004 Posted November 3, 2004 On Fox News their on the ground reporter says she feels Kerry will take Ohio cause Clevland's votes haven't been counted yet... 98276[/snapback] From the actual county by county results in OH, cuyahoga county (where Cleveland is), has only reported 50% of its votes.
DC Tom Posted November 3, 2004 Author Posted November 3, 2004 Doesn't sounds likely. Kerry is leading in WI and NH (and MN and Iowa). I think Bush wins Ohio or he's out. 98275[/snapback] I should have mentioned that was my projection and analysis. Last I checked Wisconsin, Bush was leading slightly. Clearly they've flipped since. And Bush's lead in NM is mildly surprising...but very, very thin with 60% reporting.
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