DC Tom Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Presuming Bush wins Florida (which looks likely), and Kerry wins Ohio (which is uncertain, but I expect that'll be the case.) With half the polls in, Bush is well-positioned to take both Wisconsin and New Mexico (both of which Gore took in 2000, I believe). Assuming all else remains as-is right now or mimics 2000...Bush wins with 273 EC votes. So Bush doesn't necessarily need Ohio, the way things are going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfanone Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Bush can get 276 without Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Wisc and NM would be the first states to flip from 2000. That is newsworthy. I heard earlier though that NM has an insane # of absentee ballots- in the hundreds of thousands, and it would be hard to project NM tonight if it was close. Where are all those absentee ballots coming from in NM?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted November 3, 2004 Author Share Posted November 3, 2004 Wisc and NM would be the first states to flip from 2000. That is newsworthy. I heard earlier though that NM has an insane # of absentee ballots- in the hundreds of thousands, and it would be hard to project NM tonight if it was close. Where are all those absentee ballots coming from in NM?!? 98261[/snapback] My mother, for one. Maintains a residence in NM, but actually spends about ten months out of the year driving around the country in an RV with her boyfriend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 CNN has Bush losing Wis by a lot...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 My mother, for one. Maintains a residence in NM, but actually spends about ten months out of the year driving around the country in an RV with her boyfriend. 98263[/snapback] Does NM have favorable tax laws or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 If Kerry takes Ohio and PA, doesn't that essentially give him the election though? I thought all he needed essentially was 10 EC votes from Bush and Ohio gives him 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Does NM have favorable tax laws or something? 98268[/snapback] NM is supposed to be the biggest Libertarian turnout AD. BTW, looks like Badnarik is outperforming Nader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 If Kerry takes Ohio and PA, doesn't that essentially give him the election though? I thought all he needed essentially was 10 EC votes from Bush and Ohio gives him 20. 98270[/snapback] That's implying he carries every state Mr. Gore carried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Doesn't sounds likely. Kerry is leading in WI and NH (and MN and Iowa). I think Bush wins Ohio or he's out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Doesn't sounds likely. Kerry is leading in WI and NH (and MN and Iowa). I think Bush wins Ohio or he's out. 98275[/snapback] On Fox News their on the ground reporter says she feels Kerry will take Ohio cause Clevland's votes haven't been counted yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 On Fox News their on the ground reporter says she feels Kerry will take Ohio cause Clevland's votes haven't been counted yet... 98276[/snapback] From the actual county by county results in OH, cuyahoga county (where Cleveland is), has only reported 50% of its votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted November 3, 2004 Author Share Posted November 3, 2004 Doesn't sounds likely. Kerry is leading in WI and NH (and MN and Iowa). I think Bush wins Ohio or he's out. 98275[/snapback] I should have mentioned that was my projection and analysis. Last I checked Wisconsin, Bush was leading slightly. Clearly they've flipped since. And Bush's lead in NM is mildly surprising...but very, very thin with 60% reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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