KD in CA Posted March 24, 2009 Posted March 24, 2009 you better sell as the S&P closes in on 900. This rally has a little bit of legs to it, but it is just a technical rally in a very oversold market. It was due to bounce, specially with the false euphoria that we are experiencing right now. S&P with in 3 months will back to at least the 740 area and if it breaks that. LOOK OUT BELOW!! Agreed that there is more bad news to come once Obama's stimulus pixie dust wears off. I know a broker who was telling me to buy when the S&P was running up over 900 at the start of the year. Good thing I usually consider anything out of the mouths of 99% of brokers to be reason to do the exact opposite.
BillsFanNC Posted March 24, 2009 Posted March 24, 2009 but who uses index funds, anyway? That's easy. Smart investors do.
Jim in Anchorage Posted March 24, 2009 Posted March 24, 2009 What always comes after the words"Wall street rally"? Profit taking drives market down. What a house of cards. I think the phrase day trader is obsolete. It should be "minute trader".
plenzmd1 Posted March 24, 2009 Posted March 24, 2009 BTW, just as a heads up, the stimulus package has now made Muni bonds AMT free as well as fed tax free. For instance, I am working with the Airport Authority in DC( on something completely unrelated), or MWAA, and they are just about to issue a new series of bonds. Paying 6% and different maturities. Please do your own research, typical warnings etc etc. Can buy these in denominations starting at $1000. Please go to www.munios.com for any details. Airport really is hoping these get snapped up by individuals. Just thought I would throw that out there as one option if people are still in cash. I have no opinion on MWAA and their financial propspects, but these will be rated AA.
dpbillsfan Posted March 25, 2009 Posted March 25, 2009 If you lost 85% to begin with you'd better stay in cash for the rest of your investing life. But the problem with people timing the market is that they wait to lose that 50% and then bail. They go to cash and realize that 50% loss and miss out on weeks like the past two. See dpbillsfan above. It's a long race. Cant argue with that. It's a long race indeed. I thought about going to cash in my IRA late last year but I've still got 25 + years and am not about to try and time the market. My 401K was in cash because I had just started it last year when alot this mess was getting started so I just put it into a nice money fund and when the DOW hit 6,400 I figured it was a good time to get back in. People seem to forget about dollar cost averaging when the market is down.
Magox Posted March 30, 2009 Posted March 30, 2009 Agreed that there is more bad news to come once Obama's stimulus pixie dust wears off. I know a broker who was telling me to buy when the S&P was running up over 900 at the start of the year. Good thing I usually consider anything out of the mouths of 99% of brokers to be reason to do the exact opposite. something to consider since you're in the market http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090330-708898.html By Ed Welsch Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Investors should sell into the recent stock market rally, Morgan Stanley's strategist said Monday, arguing that it can't last as corporate earnings deteriorate further. "We simply do not believe that the market has completely priced in the prospect of further earnings weakness or that it will, without interruption, look through this weakness to recovery," Morgan Stanley strategist Jason Todd wrote. On March 18 the S&P 500 rallied 25% to above 800 points since its low of 666 on March 6 - a technical bull market - spurred by positive comments by bank chief executives about improving business conditions as well as a favorable market reaction to the government's efforts to support the financial system. But the stock market started a second day of declines Monday, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both falling more than 3% in morning trading, to 792 and 7547, respectively. Todd said that when the S&P 500 is at 800 points and above, investors should sell into what he called a bear market rally. The rally is based on the growing belief that government actions have finally fixed the financial sector's worst problems, but Todd said that viewpoint overlooks a lack of support outside the financial sector, where earnings should worsen in coming quarters. Stocks in several sectors appear overbought, he said, including in the information technology, industrials, materials, energy and consumer discretionary sectors. Still, Todd said it's possible that 666 will mark the bottom in the S&P 500, even as the market retests its lows in the short term. -By Ed Welsch, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5244; edward.welsch@dowjones.com
BuffaloBill Posted March 30, 2009 Posted March 30, 2009 We have a very news driven market - I've said it before in my other posts whether you are in cash or invested you should have a process helping you to understand which way to go. Mine has said hold cash for some time now and that is what I have done (for the most part). If I get in against this general stance it has been short-term positions on very strong stocks that meet some stringent criteria.
Magox Posted March 30, 2009 Posted March 30, 2009 Cant argue with that. It's a long race indeed. I thought about going to cash in my IRA late last year but I've still got 25 + years and am not about to try and time the market. My 401K was in cash because I had just started it last year when alot this mess was getting started so I just put it into a nice money fund and when the DOW hit 6,400 I figured it was a good time to get back in. People seem to forget about dollar cost averaging when the market is down. dollar cost averaging is very dangerous in a bear market. If you'd had done that during the Great Depression then Unfortunately, it would of taken over 25 years for the market to recoup its losses and that is not even adjusting to inflation or the Bear Market of 1964 where Warren Buffett noted that the stock market "went exactly nowhere" for 17 years from the end of 1964 to the end of 1981, and On an inflation adjusted basis investors didn't break even for another 14 years. That's 31 years. If you go back in just the last 100 years, over half the time, we have been trying to recoup losses from disastrous bear markets. On two different occasions it took over 25 years to get out of the Bear Market, and the one we are in right now is a doozy. So, I understand the trader "jargon" in averaging down, but I believe it is very dangerous to do so in this bear market. Whenever the market breaks it's downtrend, there will be plenty of money to be had. Unfortunately I don't see that happening any time soon. We are too heavily in debt, and whenever the recovery does come about, We will have to pay the piper with much heavier taxes. Not to mention that future inflation from all this governments spending is going to be a painful tax on every consumer and producer. Plus our nation will become more a nation of savers than spenders, which is not a bad thing, but it is a bad thing for business and wall street profits. And you would be very naive to believe that banks are going to have confidence to lend freely any time soon, and our country has built a bad habit on growing through borrowing. So, the engine of growth will be at half throttle moving forward. Don't expect to see a sustained rally that will last. All these things I mentioned to you will serve as a ceiling. If you want to make money, I believe the best way to do so, is by betting on inflation and betting against the dollar. Precious Metals, TIPS inflation bonds, and corporate bonds with companies that have lots of cash.
Kiwi Bills fan Posted March 30, 2009 Posted March 30, 2009 King of the All Blacks? Do you mean Jonah Lomu or Colin Meads? Jonah Lomu Colin "Pine Tree" Meads Ka mate! Ka mate! Ka ora! Ka ora! Ka mate! Ka mate! Ka ora! Ka ora! Tenei te tangata puhuru huru Nana nei i tiki mai Whakawhiti te ra A upa … ne! ka upa … ne! A upane kaupane whiti te ra! Hi! Today, King of All Blacks said the only market he invests in is Shoprite.
Stussy109 Posted March 31, 2009 Posted March 31, 2009 This is all assuming you bought at the bottom, which most people didn't.
Stussy109 Posted March 31, 2009 Posted March 31, 2009 What always comes after the words"Wall street rally"? Profit taking drives market down. What a house of cards. I think the phrase day trader is obsolete. It should be "minute trader". If u want to make money, day trade BYD between 3.65-4.05, they hit consistently within a matter of less than a week usually. Have to edit that this is a suggestion only and u should do your own research b4 trading obviously
tennesseeboy Posted March 31, 2009 Posted March 31, 2009 I've been buying properties at pretty dam good prices and renting them. Friend of mine just bought a great house in LA that sold for 975,000 three years ago for 425,000. I'm waiting a few more months and going back into the market as this thing bottoms out. I suspect it will start to pick up late next fall.
Magox Posted March 31, 2009 Posted March 31, 2009 Bill Gross is a one smart dude! He is the CEO and founder of PIMCO, the largest Bond Dealer in the Universe. He's consistantly outperformed his peers. Here's what he said today: Pimco’s Gross Favors Stable Income Over Speculation By Dakin Campbell Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should favor stable income over speculative growth as global deleveraging leads to lower growth rates, according to William Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., the operator of the world’s biggest bond fund. “There is a near certain probability that the financially based global economy of the past half-century will not return,” Gross wrote in his April investment outlook posted today on the Newport Beach, California-based firm’s Web site. “Nor will we experience the steroid-driven growth excesses that it facilitated.” Global growth rates will slow as household and business balance sheets shrink and place a smaller emphasis on borrowing to boost returns, Gross wrote. Profits helped by world trade will slow as policy makers increase regulation and support less- open markets in an effort to support domestic auto and banking sectors, according to Gross. The U.S. has pledged more than $11.6 trillion to prop up the banking system. As a result, the dollar will likely weaken, credit spreads will widen from historical lows and credit ratings in emerging markets like eastern Europe will return from “unrealistic levels,” according to Gross. Hungary’s government bond ratings were cut to Baa1 from A3 by Moody’s Investors Service, the second downgrade in two days for the nation after Standard & Poor’s lowered its foreign-debt rating. ‘Buy Low’ Investors are focusing on survival rather than risk taking after having watched as much as 40 percent of their wealth destroyed since the beginning of the credit crunch, Gross wrote. Financial companies have written down almost $1.3 trillion in losses related to subprime-mortgage debt and frozen credit markets. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 38 percent last year, the worst performance since 1937. “The journey to a new stasis is a destructive one insofar as it affects previously assumed wealth,” Gross wrote. “In terms of that old maxim ‘buy low, sell high,’ this means at the minimum that an investor during this period of re-rating must ‘buy low,’” Gross held 86 percent of mortgage-backed debt in the $138 billion Total Return Fund through February, according to the company’s Web site. That’s up from 62 percent in December. The world’s largest bond fund rose 4.8 percent in 2008, beating 93 percent of its peers, data compiled by Bloomberg show. To contact the reporter on this story: Dakin Campbell in New York at dcampbell27@bloomberg.net Last Updated: March 31, 2009 10:28 EDT As I said yesterday, I truly believe that investors should take this into consideration. Tennesseeboy, I think properties are a good idea at this point if you are either looking to occupy it, because of the low interest rates that are afforded because of the financial mess we are in, or if you are looking to rent, which it seems as if that is what you are looking to do. As far as looking to resell it, I don't believe you will see any sort of significant home price appreciation over the next five years. There are way too many homes on the market, there will continue to be lots of home forclosures and banks won't be lending freely any time soon. All these factors will keep home prices depressed for some time, and my belief is that you will see another %10-%20 price deterioration in the overall housing market.
Chef Jim Posted March 31, 2009 Author Posted March 31, 2009 I've been buying properties at pretty dam good prices and renting them. Friend of mine just bought a great house in LA that sold for 975,000 three years ago for 425,000. I'm waiting a few more months and going back into the market as this thing bottoms out. I suspect it will start to pick up late next fall. Up here in SF there are some great deals but I was looking a lofts in the city and holy shiit they're still outrageous. I've seen 2br 2ba lofts for nearly $1.4m. They're great looking places in great locations but jesus. Regarding the real estate market bottoming out this year, I agree but I see it bouncing along on the bottom for awhile.
Chef Jim Posted March 31, 2009 Author Posted March 31, 2009 Bill Gross is a one smart dude! He is the CEO and founder of PIMCO, the largest Bond Dealer in the Universe. He's consistantly outperformed his peers. Here's what he said today: Pimco’s Gross Favors Stable Income Over Speculation By Dakin Campbell Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should favor stable income over speculative growth as global deleveraging leads to lower growth rates, according to William Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., the operator of the world’s biggest bond fund. “There is a near certain probability that the financially based global economy of the past half-century will not return,” Gross wrote in his April investment outlook posted today on the Newport Beach, California-based firm’s Web site. “Nor will we experience the steroid-driven growth excesses that it facilitated.” Global growth rates will slow as household and business balance sheets shrink and place a smaller emphasis on borrowing to boost returns, Gross wrote. Profits helped by world trade will slow as policy makers increase regulation and support less- open markets in an effort to support domestic auto and banking sectors, according to Gross. The U.S. has pledged more than $11.6 trillion to prop up the banking system. As a result, the dollar will likely weaken, credit spreads will widen from historical lows and credit ratings in emerging markets like eastern Europe will return from “unrealistic levels,” according to Gross. Hungary’s government bond ratings were cut to Baa1 from A3 by Moody’s Investors Service, the second downgrade in two days for the nation after Standard & Poor’s lowered its foreign-debt rating. ‘Buy Low’ Investors are focusing on survival rather than risk taking after having watched as much as 40 percent of their wealth destroyed since the beginning of the credit crunch, Gross wrote. Financial companies have written down almost $1.3 trillion in losses related to subprime-mortgage debt and frozen credit markets. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 38 percent last year, the worst performance since 1937. “The journey to a new stasis is a destructive one insofar as it affects previously assumed wealth,” Gross wrote. “In terms of that old maxim ‘buy low, sell high,’ this means at the minimum that an investor during this period of re-rating must ‘buy low,’” Gross held 86 percent of mortgage-backed debt in the $138 billion Total Return Fund through February, according to the company’s Web site. That’s up from 62 percent in December. The world’s largest bond fund rose 4.8 percent in 2008, beating 93 percent of its peers, data compiled by Bloomberg show. To contact the reporter on this story: Dakin Campbell in New York at dcampbell27@bloomberg.net Last Updated: March 31, 2009 10:28 EDT As I said yesterday, I truly believe that investors should take this into consideration. Tennesseeboy, I think properties are a good idea at this point if you are either looking to occupy it, because of the low interest rates that are afforded because of the financial mess we are in, or if you are looking to rent, which it seems as if that is what you are looking to do. As far as looking to resell it, I don't believe you will see any sort of significant home price appreciation over the next five years. There are way too many homes on the market, there will continue to be lots of home forclosures and banks won't be lending freely any time soon. All these factors will keep home prices depressed for some time, and my belief is that you will see another %10-%20 price deterioration in the overall housing market. Gross is very good at what he does and I use PIMCO a lot, however the dude has be bearish on equities for as long as I've been in the industry (over 8 years). And why is that? He sells BONDS!
Magox Posted March 31, 2009 Posted March 31, 2009 Gross is very good at what he does and I use PIMCO a lot, however the dude has be bearish on equities for as long as I've been in the industry (over 8 years). And why is that? He sells BONDS! You are absolutely correct, and when you make decisions you have to be able to read in between the lines. However, you can't discredit the man because he is recommending bonds. After all he is one of the best and most accurate in the business. I have tremendous respect for Bill Gross. Also, we should be applauding him for his bearishness on equities because he had been trying to warn everyone, even when equities were doing well that equities was a disaster waiting to happen as opposed to all the stock cheerleaders we see on CNBC. So, his bearishness in equities was founded, right? Let me ask you this, do you believe that we are going to return back to the growth rates that we have seen any time soon? Let's say over the next 10 years?
Chef Jim Posted March 31, 2009 Author Posted March 31, 2009 You are absolutely correct, and when you make decisions you have to be able to read in between the lines. However, you can't discredit the man because he is recommending bonds. After all he is one of the best and most accurate in the business. I have tremendous respect for Bill Gross. Also, we should be applauding him for his bearishness on equities because he had been trying to warn everyone, even when equities were doing well that equities was a disaster waiting to happen as opposed to all the stock cheerleaders we see on CNBC. So, his bearishness in equities was founded, right? Let me ask you this, do you believe that we are going to return back to the growth rates that we have seen any time soon? Let's say over the next 10 years? I don't listen to a bond guy to drive my equity recommendations. The guy was telling people to stay out of equities in 2003 when the S&P returned nearly 30% and the PIMCO Total Return fund returned about 5%. So bottom line is if you need income and stability you invest in bonds. You need growth you invest in equities. You need a combination of growth you build a diversified portfolio. Don't get me wrong the guy is very smart but once again he's in the business of selling bonds. Regarding your question what growth rates are you talking about? The past 10 years, 20 years? And growth of what?
Magox Posted March 31, 2009 Posted March 31, 2009 I don't listen to a bond guy to drive my equity recommendations. The guy was telling people to stay out of equities in 2003 when the S&P returned nearly 30% and the PIMCO Total Return fund returned about 5%. So bottom line is if you need income and stability you invest in bonds. You need growth you invest in equities. You need a combination of growth you build a diversified portfolio. Don't get me wrong the guy is very smart but once again he's in the business of selling bonds. Regarding your question what growth rates are you talking about? The past 10 years, 20 years? And growth of what? ok, so let's say you invested $100,000 in the S&P or the Dow index, back in 2003, and I will even give you the benefit of the doubt that you happened to pick the bottom (which no one can do), and you held on to those stocks, would you be better off today? Now you may be good at trading, I have no idea, but most people chef jim rely on other people for their advice on investments, or they hear a stock cheerleader on one of the networks, or they pick a stock that they researched for a whole one hour and just hold and hope that it works out, or they trade on emotion, which rarely works. What I'm saying chef jim is that Bill Gross advice to not buy stocks, even in 2003 was good advice. Who care's that it went up whatever % that it did, because if you didn't sell, then it doesn't mean a damn, and most people didn't sell out of their 401 K's or retirement funds. Right now, these people feel as if they are hostages to their investments, and that they are stuck and full of despair and don't know what to do. Now they are relying on hope, and they are hoping that things turn around, and I can tell you that hope is not a good strategy. If you hear Bill Gross, he doesn't talk about trading a market, he talks about the longer macro term outlook. I'm not saying you should listen to Bill Gross for his stock picks, what I'm saying is that he has been right. As far as what growth rates am I talking about? I'm talking about real sustained GDP growth. Sure we will see a bounce in GDP over the next few quarters because we have been at such a depressed level that it is inevitable that all this money that has been created and stimulus will have a short term effect. However, we are falling heavily in debt, and we will have to pay the piper once there is a perception that growth has been restored. Since we are talking about Trillions of dollars that we will have to pay back, the campaign promises of Obama will have to be altered and everyone will get taxed including corporations which means that job growth will be effected. Not to mention that all this money that was created will have a drastic inflationary impact that will also serve as a painful tax for every single person on this earth. That will also serve as a ceiling for sustained growth. let's not forget the Banks. Unfortunately our country has turned from a country of producers to a country of borrowers. We have relied on credit for growth. Credit will be severely damaged for two main reasons, one our country will become more a country of savers than before which will have a negative impact for business, and two, banks will change their lending practices because of the crisis that we are in, therefore lending will be at half throttle from what it was. Our best hope to pay back this debt is China, India and the rest of the emerging markets. If we can become a country of producers again then that would be a good way to pay down this massive debt that we are accumulating. However, i am not too optimistic on this front either. Instead of getting bigger and getting geared for production, we are moving in the opposite direction. We are getting smaller, in essence, as a result of this economic crisis, the U.S is on Firesale . We are having to sell bits and pieces of our auto, banking and other industries to recapatlize ourselves. So really we are sizing down, not up. I am not a pessimist at all. As a matter of fact I am an optimist. However that doesn't mean that I am not a realist. If you believe that we will have sustained growth and you want to invest banking on that conclusion, then I hope you have a long time scope to be right.
Chef Jim Posted March 31, 2009 Author Posted March 31, 2009 ok, so let's say you invested $100,000 in the S&P or the Dow index, back in 2003, and I will even give you the benefit of the doubt that you happened to pick the bottom (which no one can do), and you held on to those stocks, would you be better off today? Now you may be good at trading, I have no idea, but most people chef jim rely on other people for their advice on investments, or they hear a stock cheerleader on one of the networks, or they pick a stock that they researched for a whole one hour and just hold and hope that it works out, or they trade on emotion, which rarely works. What I'm saying chef jim is that Bill Gross advice to not buy stocks, even in 2003 was good advice. Who care's that it went up whatever % that it did, because if you didn't sell, then it doesn't mean a damn, and most people didn't sell out of their 401 K's or retirement funds. Right now, these people feel as if they are hostages to their investments, and that they are stuck and full of despair and don't know what to do. Now they are relying on hope, and they are hoping that things turn around, and I can tell you that hope is not a good strategy. If you hear Bill Gross, he doesn't talk about trading a market, he talks about the longer macro term outlook. I'm not saying you should listen to Bill Gross for his stock picks, what I'm saying is that he has been right. As far as what growth rates am I talking about? I'm talking about real sustained GDP growth. Sure we will see a bounce in GDP over the next few quarters because we have been at such a depressed level that it is inevitable that all this money that has been created and stimulus will have a short term effect. However, we are falling heavily in debt, and we will have to pay the piper once there is a perception that growth has been restored. Since we are talking about Trillions of dollars that we will have to pay back, the campaign promises of Obama will have to be altered and everyone will get taxed including corporations which means that job growth will be effected. Not to mention that all this money that was created will have a drastic inflationary impact that will also serve as a painful tax for every single person on this earth. That will also serve as a ceiling for sustained growth. let's not forget the Banks. Unfortunately our country has turned from a country of producers to a country of borrowers. We have relied on credit for growth. Credit will be severely damaged for two main reasons, one our country will become more a country of savers than before which will have a negative impact for business, and two, banks will change their lending practices because of the crisis that we are in, therefore lending will be at half throttle from what it was. Our best hope to pay back this debt is China, India and the rest of the emerging markets. If we can become a country of producers again then that would be a good way to pay down this massive debt that we are accumulating. However, i am not too optimistic on this front either. Instead of getting bigger and getting geared for production, we are moving in the opposite direction. We are getting smaller, in essence, as a result of this economic crisis, the U.S is on Firesale . We are having to sell bits and pieces of our auto, banking and other industries to recapatlize ourselves. So really we are sizing down, not up. I am not a pessimist at all. As a matter of fact I am an optimist. However that doesn't mean that I am not a realist. If you believe that we will have sustained growth and you want to invest banking on that conclusion, then I hope you have a long time scope to be right. You invest in equities for growth for the long run (15, 20, 30 years or longer). So if the market takes a dump like it has, so what you've got plenty of years ahead and if you dollar cost averaged over that time you'll be fine. If you time horizon is short (10 or less) and you're 100% in equities that's your mistake not mine.
tennesseeboy Posted April 1, 2009 Posted April 1, 2009 Bill Gross is a one smart dude! He is the CEO and founder of PIMCO, the largest Bond Dealer in the Universe. He's consistantly outperformed his peers. Here's what he said today: Pimco’s Gross Favors Stable Income Over Speculation By Dakin Campbell Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should favor stable income over speculative growth as global deleveraging leads to lower growth rates, according to William Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., the operator of the world’s biggest bond fund. “There is a near certain probability that the financially based global economy of the past half-century will not return,” Gross wrote in his April investment outlook posted today on the Newport Beach, California-based firm’s Web site. “Nor will we experience the steroid-driven growth excesses that it facilitated.” Global growth rates will slow as household and business balance sheets shrink and place a smaller emphasis on borrowing to boost returns, Gross wrote. Profits helped by world trade will slow as policy makers increase regulation and support less- open markets in an effort to support domestic auto and banking sectors, according to Gross. The U.S. has pledged more than $11.6 trillion to prop up the banking system. As a result, the dollar will likely weaken, credit spreads will widen from historical lows and credit ratings in emerging markets like eastern Europe will return from “unrealistic levels,” according to Gross. Hungary’s government bond ratings were cut to Baa1 from A3 by Moody’s Investors Service, the second downgrade in two days for the nation after Standard & Poor’s lowered its foreign-debt rating. ‘Buy Low’ Investors are focusing on survival rather than risk taking after having watched as much as 40 percent of their wealth destroyed since the beginning of the credit crunch, Gross wrote. Financial companies have written down almost $1.3 trillion in losses related to subprime-mortgage debt and frozen credit markets. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 38 percent last year, the worst performance since 1937. “The journey to a new stasis is a destructive one insofar as it affects previously assumed wealth,” Gross wrote. “In terms of that old maxim ‘buy low, sell high,’ this means at the minimum that an investor during this period of re-rating must ‘buy low,’” Gross held 86 percent of mortgage-backed debt in the $138 billion Total Return Fund through February, according to the company’s Web site. That’s up from 62 percent in December. The world’s largest bond fund rose 4.8 percent in 2008, beating 93 percent of its peers, data compiled by Bloomberg show. To contact the reporter on this story: Dakin Campbell in New York at dcampbell27@bloomberg.net Last Updated: March 31, 2009 10:28 EDT As I said yesterday, I truly believe that investors should take this into consideration. Tennesseeboy, I think properties are a good idea at this point if you are either looking to occupy it, because of the low interest rates that are afforded because of the financial mess we are in, or if you are looking to rent, which it seems as if that is what you are looking to do. As far as looking to resell it, I don't believe you will see any sort of significant home price appreciation over the next five years. There are way too many homes on the market, there will continue to be lots of home forclosures and banks won't be lending freely any time soon. All these factors will keep home prices depressed for some time, and my belief is that you will see another %10-%20 price deterioration in the overall housing market. Got into it years ago with my son. Between the two of us we have over 28 properties in Albany fully rented and some down here. No intention of selling any of them in the foreseeable future. The East Tennessee and Asheville markets seem to be doing very well. (Mountains, lakes, great weather, no income tax.). I'm still in the market, with some bonds and figure I'll weather the tough times and get in with a vengeance late next fall, unless something happens in between to dampen my belief that there will be a slow upturn after November. We'll see.
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