Bill from NYC Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 After (if not also before) the release of Dockery, the Bills are left with all of 1 credible Guard on the roster. Common thinking is that Guards should be drafted in later rounds; that they are big guys who are not athletic enough to play OT, especially LT. While there is some truth to this theory, this article spells out the link between selecting Guards early and winning football games. I went over the pro bowl rosters from 2007 - 2009. The following is a list of all Guards selected, (those with multiple selections are only listed once), and when they were drafted. Alternates are included. Leonard Davis: 1st Round Steve Hutchinson: 1st Round Shawn Andrews: 1st Round Alan Faneca: 1st Round Logan Mankins: 1st Round Will Shields: 3rd Round Kris Dielman: Undrafted Larry Allen: 2nd Round Ruben Brown: 1st Round Chris Snee: 2nd Round Davin Joseph: 1st Round Brian Waters: Undrafted The number of these guys who have been to the playoffs and/or the suoerbowl is striking. Because of this, I am in favor of the Bills trading down in this draft and getting another 2nd round pick. I am not seeing one of the pass rushing DEs or even Raji falling to us. The Bills, again given their talent at the skill positions, need to strengthen the OL instead of to merely fill holes. A solid, early round Guard or 2 would be a great start. We have a ton of good skill players and a young quarterback, and simply cannot enter the season wth weak guards and expect to win. Maybe during the draft, Jauron can be tied up and gagged so we don't wind up with Vontae Davis, and a few other dbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thoner7 Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 I agree. The success rate for OL in the early rounds of the draft is higher than any other position. If we can come away with a trade down/extra second, I would love to see 2 OL and a DE taken with our top three picks. Those 2 OL have a great chance of becoming quality starters in the NFL, and we need the pass rush. The OL has only 5 starters, and unlike other position teams rarely if ever substitue them during a game. The position is so important and aside from depth players, you need 5 good ones. If you have 4 good ones the whole group may stink (ala Preston/Fowler). Draft some OL early and often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
34-78-83 Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 After (if not also before) the release of Dockery, the Bills are left with all of 1 credible Guard on the roster. Common thinking is that Guards should be drafted in later rounds; that they are big guys who are not athletic enough to play OT, especially LT. While there is some truth to this theory, this article spells out the link between selecting Guards early and winning football games. I went over the pro bowl rosters from 2007 - 2009. The following is a list of all Guards selected, (those with multiple selections are only listed once), and when they were drafted. Alternates are included. Leonard Davis: 1st Round Steve Hutchinson: 1st Round Shawn Andrews: 1st Round Alan Faneca: 1st Round Logan Mankins: 1st Round Will Shields: 3rd Round Kris Dielman: Undrafted Larry Allen: 2nd Round Ruben Brown: 1st Round Chris Snee: 2nd Round Davin Joseph: 1st Round Brian Waters: Undrafted The number of these guys who have been to the playoffs and/or the suoerbowl is striking. Because of this, I am in favor of the Bills trading down in this draft and getting another 2nd round pick. I am not seeing one of the pass rushing DEs or even Raji falling to us. The Bills, again given their talent at the skill positions, need to strengthen the OL instead of to merely fill holes. A solid, early round Guard or 2 would be a great start. We have a ton of good skill players and a young quarterback, and simply cannot enter the season wth weak guards and expect to win. Maybe during the draft, Jauron can be tied up and gagged so we don't wind up with Vontae Davis, and a few other dbs. I agree with all of it except the idea of the Bills somehow being able to control whether they trade down or not. They gotta have a dancing partner and it has to be a fair offer. That is out of their control (as it always is). Otherwise, I am fine with taking an OG fairly early (2nd rd). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvermike Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 The Bills haven't drafted a guard in the first four rounds since Rueben Brown, and Duke Preston is the only center to come from those picks since 1986. No wonder our lines suck in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Good point. Joe D. Wolford Ritcher Reggie McKenzie. All drafted early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 The problem isn't so much not drafting OL in round 1, but the Bills' refusal to draft any OL in rounds 2-3. There's lots of really good OL that are taken in those rounds every year, yet the Bills never do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Maybe during the draft, Jauron can be tied up and gagged so we don't wind up with Vontae Davis, and a few other dbs. Great post, except for that last line. I see we are back to believing that Jauron absolutely controls the draft (I guess since Levy is gone, you have to have someone else to kick), and has some sort of deep aversion to drafting linemen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaGimp Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Great post, except for that last line. I see we are back to believing that Jauron absolutely controls the draft (I guess since Levy is gone, you have to have someone else to kick), and has some sort of deep aversion to drafting linemen. the bills have an aversion to drafting linemen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 the Bills could draft Oher at #11 as a leverage agianst Peters. Oher will play LG for us, and can also be our eventual replacement for Peters. If Peters refuses to sign the 8.5 million deal in front of him then he can play under his old contract in 2009 and he can hope to god he doesn't suffer an injury that destroys the possibility of him ever being offered 8.5 million a year with 25 million guarenteed again. If he doesn't sign we can trade him in 2010 already knowing his replacement is on the roster. If Peters signs we have an improved OL compared to 2008, solid depth at T, and a stud LG leaving us with no holes on our OL this year. The OL is too important to ignore, and since Peters is trying to play games the Bills can counter back and regain the upper hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 After (if not also before) the release of Dockery, the Bills are left with all of 1 credible Guard on the roster. Common thinking is that Guards should be drafted in later rounds; that they are big guys who are not athletic enough to play OT, especially LT. While there is some truth to this theory, this article spells out the link between selecting Guards early and winning football games. I went over the pro bowl rosters from 2007 - 2009. The following is a list of all Guards selected, (those with multiple selections are only listed once), and when they were drafted. Alternates are included. Leonard Davis: 1st Round Steve Hutchinson: 1st Round Shawn Andrews: 1st Round Alan Faneca: 1st Round Logan Mankins: 1st Round Will Shields: 3rd Round Kris Dielman: Undrafted Larry Allen: 2nd Round Ruben Brown: 1st Round Chris Snee: 2nd Round Davin Joseph: 1st Round Brian Waters: Undrafted The number of these guys who have been to the playoffs and/or the suoerbowl is striking. Because of this, I am in favor of the Bills trading down in this draft and getting another 2nd round pick. I am not seeing one of the pass rushing DEs or even Raji falling to us. The Bills, again given their talent at the skill positions, need to strengthen the OL instead of to merely fill holes. A solid, early round Guard or 2 would be a great start. We have a ton of good skill players and a young quarterback, and simply cannot enter the season wth weak guards and expect to win. Maybe during the draft, Jauron can be tied up and gagged so we don't wind up with Vontae Davis, and a few other dbs. Nice research. Two observations: (1) I wonder how Bellichek builds his line. If I recall, he thinks all linemen are a dime a dozen and rarely wastes high picks on o-lineman. (Of course, since we don't have Bellichek, I would be in favor of building the interior of our line with some sure-fire prospects.) (2) It strikes me that being successful and thus getting a draft pick in the 20's or lower is ideal for drafting interior lineman. It seems like the Steelers for years have been set up nicely to draft the best or second best guard off of the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 the bills have an aversion to drafting linemen Apparently. Although, I'm guessing the FO could give a good explanation for why they didn't go OL, for any individual draft. Context is important in any evaluation. But, I have to agree the trend is odd, and disconcerting. Of course, as Tennessee and the Giants (and other teams with good offensive lines, and success on the field) have shown, the draft isn't the ONLY way to build a good offensive line in the NFL. Honestly, I don't really care what method the Bills choose, as long as it ends up working for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Apparently. Although, I'm guessing the FO could give a good explanation for why they didn't go OL, for any individual draft. Context is important in any evaluation. But, I have to agree the trend is odd, and disconcerting. Of course, as Tennessee and the Giants (and other teams with good offensive lines, and success on the field) have shown, the draft isn't the ONLY way to build a good offensive line in the NFL. Honestly, I don't really care what method the Bills choose, as long as it ends up working for them. Yes, in any given year, you can easily explain and probably come up with a good argument as to why the Bills didn't select early OL. (They do seem fond of late rounders however). But, over the long haul, you cannot continually neglect the OL in the early parts of the draft. At some point, you have to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Mark this day down. This is the first time that I 100% agree with BillinNYC wrt the draft. For years we have bickered back and forth regarding skill players vs. o line. My contention has always been that the lines simply do not win the football game w/ 2:00 left on the clock and 80 yards to go, whether you are on D or O. And since that scenario happens more often than not in today's game, our skill players have to beat their skill players or we will get beat by a lot of last second field goals, etc., regardless of whatever the lines did all game. The best, most recent example is the Giants beating the Pats* in the SB. The Giants D/Pats* O line was a non-factor in Brady/Moss scoring a TD with 3:00 to play, as was the Pats* D line/Giant's O line(um, helmet play) in the same exact thing happening with Manning/Burress. Ok, disclaimer over. We have the skill players to stay with anybody. We need to draft lineman this year, to include getting a good TE(any way we can get one, draft day trade, etc.) We need to draft 3 lineman the first 4 rounds or this will be a questionable draft for me. I like the trade down idea a whole lot because it will probably allow us to pick up a decent OLB as well. The bottom line is we don't want to get caught in no-man's land of reaching for a guy at 11 who should be drafted at 20. But, "should's" are BS. We need a "how", as in how do we trade down? If there isn't a partner, nothing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 the bills have an aversion to drafting linemen the other problem with trying to trade down is: NFL teams are starting to have an aversion to 1st round picks. Too much risk/too much money bottled up in one player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lofton80 Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Belichek drafts athletic lineman. I recall a draft report where they like Offensive lineman with wrestling backgrounds like Mankins, Light and Neal. Drafting a quality lineman early is never going to hurt matters with one notable exception from the University of Texas. Nice research. Two observations: (1) I wonder how Bellichek builds his line. If I recall, he thinks all linemen are a dime a dozen and rarely wastes high picks on o-lineman. (Of course, since we don't have Bellichek, I would be in favor of building the interior of our line with some sure-fire prospects.) (2) It strikes me that being successful and thus getting a draft pick in the 20's or lower is ideal for drafting interior lineman. It seems like the Steelers for years have been set up nicely to draft the best or second best guard off of the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 the other problem with trying to trade down is: NFL teams are starting to have an aversion to 1st round picks. Too much risk/too much money bottled up in one player. Actually to be precise, teams don't like trading up into (or for that matter having) the top 5 picks of the draft. However the rest of your statement, that the reasons are economic, is true. Here's the case study from the 2008 NFL Draft. Glenn Dorsey, 5th overall selection. Contract for 5 years and $51 million. Leodis McKelvin, 11th overall selection. Contract for 5 years and $19.4 million. First round trades are still quite common. Just not those that involve a top five pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Actually to be precise, teams don't like trading up into (or for that matter having) the top 5 picks of the draft. However the rest of your statement, that the reasons are economic, is true. Here's the case study from the 2008 NFL Draft. Glenn Dorsey, 5th overall selection. Contract for 5 years and $51 million. Leodis McKelvin, 11th overall selection. Contract for 5 years and $19.4 million. First round trades are still quite common. Just not those that involve a top five pick. Good points. But, to address the bolded part, it isn't that other first round trades are uncommon, it's just that you have many more teams looking to trade down, than have an interest in trading up. The team looking to improve their draft pick has most of the negotiating power (except in some specific circumstances), as they tend to have several suitors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted March 23, 2009 Author Share Posted March 23, 2009 Belichek drafts athletic lineman. I recall a draft report where they like Offensive lineman with wrestling backgrounds like Mankins, Light and Neal. Very true. I would put Snee with the Giants in this category, although I dare say that your point would seem to apply more to OGs than OTs, especially LTs. At LT, the great ones all seem to be super specimens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanInUticaTampa Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 the bills have an aversion to drafting linemen unless it is mike williams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted March 23, 2009 Author Share Posted March 23, 2009 the Bills could draft Oher at #11 as a leverage agianst Peters. Oher will play LG for us, and can also be our eventual replacement for Peters. To be clear, I am all about signing and keeping Jason Peters, who I think when in shape is a freak, and the best player on the football team. That said, if Oher does project at all to Guard, I consider your idea to be a great one. Nice going!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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