The Avenger Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Yes, I know something about statistical analysis. But the presidential election isn't decided by inference from exit polls. It's decided deterministically from the balloting. Inference from exit polls make exciting TV coverage...but it's still inductive reasoning, i.e. a wild-ass guess. 98031[/snapback] I'll take statistical analysis and getting the results within hours of the polls closing rather than waiting days for every single vote to be counted and I think most people would chose this as well. Again, considering every "wild-ass guess" has been right save for one in the last 20 years I think it works pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 I'll take statistical analysis and getting the results within hours of the polls closing rather than waiting days for every single vote to be counted and I think most people would chose this as well. Again, considering every "wild-ass guess" has been right save for one in the last 20 years I think it works pretty well. 98066[/snapback] Statistical analysis of a deterministic system is a crock of stevestojan. Period. And I say that having done my master's on the statistical analysis of a deterministic system. The accuracy of the guesses not withstanding...it's still a friggin' guess. Personally, I'd rather wait three days and see that it's done right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Avenger Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Statistical analysis of a deterministic system is a crock of stevestojan. Period. And I say that having done my master's on the statistical analysis of a deterministic system. The accuracy of the guesses not withstanding...it's still a friggin' guess. Personally, I'd rather wait three days and see that it's done right. 98074[/snapback] I think you're in the minority - people don't want to wait. We aren't used to that - we want to wake up the next morning and find out who won (how stunned were you in 2000 when you got up and your jaw dropped as you sai, "you mean nobody won?). I'd think you have a point if the networks continually screwed up with their "wild-ass guesses", but it only happened once. Simply put, accuracy isn't enough of a problem to have people wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 No schitt.... The partisanship in the media is ridiculous. 97926[/snapback] Those projections are nothing more than trying to scoop stories. They called TX for Bush at 1% when the candidates were 4,000 votes apart. I'm sure they'll call California the second the polls close. Why? Because they are confident in the results and refuse to get scooped. I don't think your example is media bias-based. Look at PA- right now, Kerry is ahead by a huge margin with 85% precincts reporting, but it still shows undecided. I'd be shocked if Bush wins PA now... but they are holding on to a projection for reasons unknown to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Those projections are nothing more than trying to scoop stories. They called TX for Bush at 1% when the candidates were 4,000 votes apart. I'm sure they'll call California the second the polls close. Why? Because they are confident in the results and refuse to get scooped. I don't think your example is media bias-based. Look at PA- right now, Kerry is ahead by a huge margin with 85% precincts reporting, but it still shows undecided. I'd be shocked if Bush wins PA now... but they are holding on to a projection for reasons unknown to me. 98189[/snapback] Fox ain't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Fox ain't 98194[/snapback] Then the other lemmings will soon follow. So far, the only people I want to watch cover the election are Wolf Blitzer and Tim Russert. Unfortunately, Brokaw keeps making assanine leftist comments that Russert ignores, and Blitzer is on with a panel that includes Larry King (although King was the first person I heard make the point, at 11 pm, that no state has changed from 2000 so far... which is something I'm surprised other networks aren't harping on). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Then the other lemmings will soon follow. So far, the only people I want to watch cover the election are Wolf Blitzer and Tim Russert. Unfortunately, Brokaw keeps making assanine leftist comments that Russert ignores, and Blitzer is on with a panel that includes Larry King (although King was the first person I heard make the point, at 11 pm, that no state has changed from 2000 so far... which is something I'm surprised other networks aren't harping on). 98202[/snapback] I'm not even watching it - or reading about it. My wife just mentioned it in passing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 I'm not even watching it - or reading about it. My wife just mentioned it in passing. 98211[/snapback] Solid scorecard here shows the changes from 2000. So far, all the state projections are identical, and the only electoral number differences are due to shifting populations. cnn scorecard Smart of you not to watch. I wish Russert, Blitzer, and a handful of others would start their own network. Those two alone are multiple times better than anyone else talking tonight. And sure I know Russert is a huge Democrat, but he is such a fair journalist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Solid scorecard here shows the changes from 2000. So far, all the state projections are identical, and the only electoral number differences are due to shifting populations. cnn scorecard Smart of you not to watch. I wish Russert, Blitzer, and a handful of others would start their own network. Those two alone are multiple times better than anyone else talking tonight. And sure I know Russert is a huge Democrat, but he is such a fair journalist. 98219[/snapback] Russert's great. I Tivo MTP just because of him. He should be the standard journalists aspire to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Smart of you not to watch. I wish Russert, Blitzer, and a handful of others would start their own network. Those two alone are multiple times better than anyone else talking tonight. 98219[/snapback] You guys are just Buffalo homers for these two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 You guys are just Buffalo homers for these two. 98225[/snapback] Is Blitzer a Buffalo guy? I know a lot of people who love Russert because he's the best. I don't know a Republican or Democrat who hates him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Is Blitzer a Buffalo guy? 98227[/snapback] On the Kenmore West Hall of Fame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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