A rational person needs to give props to Peter's agent

[DazedandConfused]

Its still too early to declare his assessment of the market and work at Peters' direction a done deal yet (it ain't over 'til its over) but given some of the vitriol spewed last year about how stupid Peters and his agent were in how they played this negotiating exercise, I think a rational assessment of the current situation in negotiation is almost all in Peters' favor.

 

I know there is no requirement and I do not expect any hardcore Bills partisan to be rational, but it is no surprise to me that even with the Bills and Peters reported to be about $3 million apart, I think one needs to realize that this is far closer to Peters' outrageous demand of the top OL contract in the market (which is now over $11.5 million a year that Jake Long signed for) than where the Bills started out which is wanting Peters to honor his existing (RT pay scale) contract.

 

The Bills have moved from the $4 mill a year (which by far is the largest paycheck Peters ever saw but that does not seem to matter in the modern NFL where both teams and players seem happy to get every one of our dimes they can) apparently to 8 and given the situation I think its a pretty safe bet that Peters is gonna get a lot more than $8 million a year.

 

Maybe Peters and his agent got to the current position through their intelligent gauging of the market, or through dumb luck, or through getting a couple of things to go their way and they took advantage of these opportunities, but whatever the reason (my guess is opportunism rather than Peters and his posse anticipating just how this would go) I think it takes real blinders not to see the superior negotiating position Peters is in.

 

The 3 big events in this negotiation IMHO were:

 

A. Peters aimed high and stuck to his guns for the most part last off-season-

 

As with most games of chicken (which in essence what last year's juvenile multi-million dollar face off between the Bills and Peters was) no one really won and both sides should count their blessings they survived this dispute to live again. Peters missed camp by holding out until the last minute (the last minute was he crawled back before being docked a game check which would have been serious money. There was a noticeable effect in terms of his performance in the first half of last year as he got off to a slow start. However, this slow start had no real impact on the important stat of W/L as the Bills won despite the initial inconsistent play of Peters. In the more imaginary world of the media (radio and the web being the loudest) Peters was labeled as lousy.

 

However, since the Bills got off to a fast start without Peters hitting the ground running, and many of his teammates rooting for the Bills to set a precedent of caving into player demands, and since Edwards was not killed due to lame LT play both Peters and the Bills escaped his holdout with their lives.

 

B. Peters made the Pro Bowl-

 

This accomplishment really put Peters in the driver's seat. Many Bills fans made leery of the validity of Pro Bowl selection after watching Ruben Brown get in year after year despite having some not very good years sometimes really devalue Pro Bowl picks. However, the critical issue here is market value and whether he deserved it or not Peters scored a big plus by getting voted in by a mixed and balanced opinions of coaches, peers, and fans.

 

One has to give props to Peters for winning this nod as from a marketing/negotiating standpoint this validated his decision to hold out as even with the slow start he still got the nod from this mixed panel. Even for those who want to claim all they care about is play and not popularity, they actually are ignoring play to claim Peters is a bad player as part of his winning this was that his on field performance seemed to this viewer (and is born out by some statistical analysis that looks at which opposing DL player got a sack) improved in the second half of the season probably as he improved from his selfish holdout.

 

C. Dockery was let go-

 

This created a dual advantage for Peters in that this move not only made some cap room for Peters as the Bills cut him rather than pay him a roster bonus, but it also put the Bills in a situation where they already were replacing their starting center and several back-ups on the OL. While some seem to have their panties all up in a wad over Peters not honoring his contract (hello real world are you surprised) it looks really doubtful the Bills will want to replace the majority of their OL in one off-season which they would have to do if they cut Peters.

 

An even greater departure from reality is that some fans are vocal about wanting to trade Peters for draft choices. This is simply a departure from reality in that actual NFL GMs realize that even though the conventional wisdom is a 1st round pick should be a starter (many Bills fans have been fooled by good picks like Nate Clements becoming a star after the Bills traded down to the last third of the 1st round to get him). It does happen a lot that a later pick becomes a starter, but the actual real world occurrence is that its only a little over 50/50 most years for a first round pick to be a starter at the beginning of the next season.

 

Even if the Bills got 2 1st rounders for Peters (could happen but like franchise player Cassel and others a top vet may only bring later round choices in reality) they are likely writing off 09 in terms of OL play as these rookies learn to become vets. When Dockery got cut the cash registers started going off in Peters and his agents head.

 

The bottomline here appears to me that despite the whines of many fans and media types like Ed Kilgore who have instant stories he would not have to work hard to do his job if the Bills stupidly drew a line in the sand, the Bills will likely wait until after the April draft to ink Peters. As the rookie cap is separate from the vet cap who they pick makes little fiscal difference (our decision to do our accounting based on cap to cash may to some extent link rookie contracts to existing contracts but not by a huge amount) and the Bills can roll over and sign Peters when they choose. However, by leaving the situation unclear they also send misinformation to our opponents so outside clarity probably waits until after the draft.

 

However, in the big picture I give my props to Peters and his agent. They appear to have played this well and even in the worse case the Bills ship Peters and he probably really cashes in as his new team would almost certainly want to sign him for his career.

 

Well played Peters.

[Erik]

I think the strategy could blow up in their faces if the labor unrest is settled. Apparently Parker is selling the Bills on guarding against all the big contracts that left tackles are going to get next year in the uncapped year and Jason needs to be compensated now if he misses out on the big money. Of course if the uncapped year is avoided then that extra compensation isn't necessary.

[Mr. WEO]

Its still too early to declare his assessment of the market and work at Peters' direction a done deal yet (it ain't over 'til its over) but given some of the vitriol spewed last year about how stupid Peters and his agent were in how they played this negotiating exercise, I think a rational assessment of the current situation in negotiation is almost all in Peters' favor.

 

I know there is no requirement and I do not expect any hardcore Bills partisan to be rational, but it is no surprise to me that even with the Bills and Peters reported to be about $3 million apart, I think one needs to realize that this is far closer to Peters' outrageous demand of the top OL contract in the market (which is now over $11.5 million a year that Jake Long signed for) than where the Bills started out which is wanting Peters to honor his existing (RT pay scale) contract.

 

The Bills have moved from the $4 mill a year (which by far is the largest paycheck Peters ever saw but that does not seem to matter in the modern NFL where both teams and players seem happy to get every one of our dimes they can) apparently to 8 and given the situation I think its a pretty safe bet that Peters is gonna get a lot more than $8 million a year.

 

Maybe Peters and his agent got to the current position through their intelligent gauging of the market, or through dumb luck, or through getting a couple of things to go their way and they took advantage of these opportunities, but whatever the reason (my guess is opportunism rather than Peters and his posse anticipating just how this would go) I think it takes real blinders not to see the superior negotiating position Peters is in.

 

The 3 big events in this negotiation IMHO were:

 

A. Peters aimed high and stuck to his guns for the most part last off-season-

 

As with most games of chicken (which in essence what last year's juvenile multi-million dollar face off between the Bills and Peters was) no one really won and both sides should count their blessings they survived this dispute to live again. Peters missed camp by holding out until the last minute (the last minute was he crawled back before being docked a game check which would have been serious money. There was a noticeable effect in terms of his performance in the first half of last year as he got off to a slow start. However, this slow start had no real impact on the important stat of W/L as the Bills won despite the initial inconsistent play of Peters. In the more imaginary world of the media (radio and the web being the loudest) Peters was labeled as lousy.

 

However, since the Bills got off to a fast start without Peters hitting the ground running, and many of his teammates rooting for the Bills to set a precedent of caving into player demands, and since Edwards was not killed due to lame LT play both Peters and the Bills escaped his holdout with their lives.

 

B. Peters made the Pro Bowl-

 

This accomplishment really put Peters in the driver's seat. Many Bills fans made leery of the validity of Pro Bowl selection after watching Ruben Brown get in year after year despite having some not very good years sometimes really devalue Pro Bowl picks. However, the critical issue here is market value and whether he deserved it or not Peters scored a big plus by getting voted in by a mixed and balanced opinions of coaches, peers, and fans.

 

One has to give props to Peters for winning this nod as from a marketing/negotiating standpoint this validated his decision to hold out as even with the slow start he still got the nod from this mixed panel. Even for those who want to claim all they care about is play and not popularity, they actually are ignoring play to claim Peters is a bad player as part of his winning this was that his on field performance seemed to this viewer (and is born out by some statistical analysis that looks at which opposing DL player got a sack) improved in the second half of the season probably as he improved from his selfish holdout.

 

C. Dockery was let go-

 

This created a dual advantage for Peters in that this move not only made some cap room for Peters as the Bills cut him rather than pay him a roster bonus, but it also put the Bills in a situation where they already were replacing their starting center and several back-ups on the OL. While some seem to have their panties all up in a wad over Peters not honoring his contract (hello real world are you surprised) it looks really doubtful the Bills will want to replace the majority of their OL in one off-season which they would have to do if they cut Peters.

 

An even greater departure from reality is that some fans are vocal about wanting to trade Peters for draft choices. This is simply a departure from reality in that actual NFL GMs realize that even though the conventional wisdom is a 1st round pick should be a starter (many Bills fans have been fooled by good picks like Nate Clements becoming a star after the Bills traded down to the last third of the 1st round to get him). It does happen a lot that a later pick becomes a starter, but the actual real world occurrence is that its only a little over 50/50 most years for a first round pick to be a starter at the beginning of the next season.

 

Even if the Bills got 2 1st rounders for Peters (could happen but like franchise player Cassel and others a top vet may only bring later round choices in reality) they are likely writing off 09 in terms of OL play as these rookies learn to become vets. When Dockery got cut the cash registers started going off in Peters and his agents head.

 

The bottomline here appears to me that despite the whines of many fans and media types like Ed Kilgore who have instant stories he would not have to work hard to do his job if the Bills stupidly drew a line in the sand, the Bills will likely wait until after the April draft to ink Peters. As the rookie cap is separate from the vet cap who they pick makes little fiscal difference (our decision to do our accounting based on cap to cash may to some extent link rookie contracts to existing contracts but not by a huge amount) and the Bills can roll over and sign Peters when they choose. However, by leaving the situation unclear they also send misinformation to our opponents so outside clarity probably waits until after the draft.

 

However, in the big picture I give my props to Peters and his agent. They appear to have played this well and even in the worse case the Bills ship Peters and he probably really cashes in as his new team would almost certainly want to sign him for his career.

 

Well played Peters.

 

 

I disagree. If he didn't hold out and arrived in great shape and played as well as he did in '07, he would be spending his new huge contract money RIGHT NOW.

 

Other than holding out again (and losing gamechecks) there is nothing Peters can do--he is under contract. Very simply, the Bills may decide to give him a new contract, but they do not have to.

[BillsNYC]

Cliff notes?

[Magox]

Its still too early to declare his assessment of the market and work at Peters' direction a done deal yet (it ain't over 'til its over) but given some of the vitriol spewed last year about how stupid Peters and his agent were in how they played this negotiating exercise, I think a rational assessment of the current situation in negotiation is almost all in Peters' favor.

 

I know there is no requirement and I do not expect any hardcore Bills partisan to be rational, but it is no surprise to me that even with the Bills and Peters reported to be about $3 million apart, I think one needs to realize that this is far closer to Peters' outrageous demand of the top OL contract in the market (which is now over $11.5 million a year that Jake Long signed for) than where the Bills started out which is wanting Peters to honor his existing (RT pay scale) contract.

 

The Bills have moved from the $4 mill a year (which by far is the largest paycheck Peters ever saw but that does not seem to matter in the modern NFL where both teams and players seem happy to get every one of our dimes they can) apparently to 8 and given the situation I think its a pretty safe bet that Peters is gonna get a lot more than $8 million a year.

 

Maybe Peters and his agent got to the current position through their intelligent gauging of the market, or through dumb luck, or through getting a couple of things to go their way and they took advantage of these opportunities, but whatever the reason (my guess is opportunism rather than Peters and his posse anticipating just how this would go) I think it takes real blinders not to see the superior negotiating position Peters is in.

 

The 3 big events in this negotiation IMHO were:

 

A. Peters aimed high and stuck to his guns for the most part last off-season-

 

As with most games of chicken (which in essence what last year's juvenile multi-million dollar face off between the Bills and Peters was) no one really won and both sides should count their blessings they survived this dispute to live again. Peters missed camp by holding out until the last minute (the last minute was he crawled back before being docked a game check which would have been serious money. There was a noticeable effect in terms of his performance in the first half of last year as he got off to a slow start. However, this slow start had no real impact on the important stat of W/L as the Bills won despite the initial inconsistent play of Peters. In the more imaginary world of the media (radio and the web being the loudest) Peters was labeled as lousy.

 

However, since the Bills got off to a fast start without Peters hitting the ground running, and many of his teammates rooting for the Bills to set a precedent of caving into player demands, and since Edwards was not killed due to lame LT play both Peters and the Bills escaped his holdout with their lives.

 

B. Peters made the Pro Bowl-

 

This accomplishment really put Peters in the driver's seat. Many Bills fans made leery of the validity of Pro Bowl selection after watching Ruben Brown get in year after year despite having some not very good years sometimes really devalue Pro Bowl picks. However, the critical issue here is market value and whether he deserved it or not Peters scored a big plus by getting voted in by a mixed and balanced opinions of coaches, peers, and fans.

 

One has to give props to Peters for winning this nod as from a marketing/negotiating standpoint this validated his decision to hold out as even with the slow start he still got the nod from this mixed panel. Even for those who want to claim all they care about is play and not popularity, they actually are ignoring play to claim Peters is a bad player as part of his winning this was that his on field performance seemed to this viewer (and is born out by some statistical analysis that looks at which opposing DL player got a sack) improved in the second half of the season probably as he improved from his selfish holdout.

 

C. Dockery was let go-

 

This created a dual advantage for Peters in that this move not only made some cap room for Peters as the Bills cut him rather than pay him a roster bonus, but it also put the Bills in a situation where they already were replacing their starting center and several back-ups on the OL. While some seem to have their panties all up in a wad over Peters not honoring his contract (hello real world are you surprised) it looks really doubtful the Bills will want to replace the majority of their OL in one off-season which they would have to do if they cut Peters.

 

An even greater departure from reality is that some fans are vocal about wanting to trade Peters for draft choices. This is simply a departure from reality in that actual NFL GMs realize that even though the conventional wisdom is a 1st round pick should be a starter (many Bills fans have been fooled by good picks like Nate Clements becoming a star after the Bills traded down to the last third of the 1st round to get him). It does happen a lot that a later pick becomes a starter, but the actual real world occurrence is that its only a little over 50/50 most years for a first round pick to be a starter at the beginning of the next season.

 

Even if the Bills got 2 1st rounders for Peters (could happen but like franchise player Cassel and others a top vet may only bring later round choices in reality) they are likely writing off 09 in terms of OL play as these rookies learn to become vets. When Dockery got cut the cash registers started going off in Peters and his agents head.

 

The bottomline here appears to me that despite the whines of many fans and media types like Ed Kilgore who have instant stories he would not have to work hard to do his job if the Bills stupidly drew a line in the sand, the Bills will likely wait until after the April draft to ink Peters. As the rookie cap is separate from the vet cap who they pick makes little fiscal difference (our decision to do our accounting based on cap to cash may to some extent link rookie contracts to existing contracts but not by a huge amount) and the Bills can roll over and sign Peters when they choose. However, by leaving the situation unclear they also send misinformation to our opponents so outside clarity probably waits until after the draft.

 

However, in the big picture I give my props to Peters and his agent. They appear to have played this well and even in the worse case the Bills ship Peters and he probably really cashes in as his new team would almost certainly want to sign him for his career.

 

Well played Peters.

Your only flaw is

 

 

that you are talking to irrational bitter fans

[BLZFAN4LIFE]

Cliff notes?

 

 

No doubt, I don't have time to read the encyclopedia britannica ova here!!! But, whatever was said, Peters has no business asking to be the highest paid tackle in the NFL.

[VJ91]

...The Bills have moved from the $4 mill a year (which by far is the largest paycheck Peters ever saw but that does not seem to matter in the modern NFL where both teams and players seem happy to get every one of our dimes they can) apparently to 8 and given the situation I think its a pretty safe bet that Peters is gonna get a lot more than $8 million a year...

 

Your post certainly contradicts your username. Well said. But I don't understand this last 3 Million a year the Bills won't pay. Three years ago they dished out $49 Million for Derick Dockery. And he is a guard, not even a right tackle. Tack on a conservative 5% increase per season, and that same contract would cost the Bills $56 Million for a guard today. $56 Million divided by 5 years is 11.2 Million per season, and 11 Million per is what you are saying Peters is looking for. Obviously the road block has to be the up front bonus and front loading of the guaranteed money Peters' agent is most likely demanding. Bonus cash and guaranteed money is what the problem always is for the Ralph Wilson Bills. No matter how smart Peters and his agent may be regarding this impasse, I still think the circle-jerks should ante up and pay the kid, and lock him up for the next 3 or 4 seasons at least, with a huge signing bonus and front loaded 7 or 8 year contract. If they trade him or let him hold out for three more seasons, finding another 2 time Pro Bowl left tackle under the age of 28 will be almost impossible. And even if they do luck out and draft one, by the time he becomes a Pro Bowler, he will only cost evern more money to sign to his long term contract.

[The Senator]

Cliff notes?

 

- Peters is really good

 

- Peters is really smart

 

- The Bills should give Peters whatever he demands

 

- Peters and Parker really outsmarted the Bills

 

- I love Jason Peters

 

 

 

How's that?

[millbank]

I may be wrong but it appears a long lost poster has returned..... I do seem to remember these sort of long extended posts as the norm once upon a time on wall...

[Mickey]

Its still too early to declare his assessment of the market and work at Peters' direction a done deal yet (it ain't over 'til its over) but given some of the vitriol spewed last year about how stupid Peters and his agent were in how they played this negotiating exercise, I think a rational assessment of the current situation in negotiation is almost all in Peters' favor.

 

I know there is no requirement and I do not expect any hardcore Bills partisan to be rational, but it is no surprise to me that even with the Bills and Peters reported to be about $3 million apart, I think one needs to realize that this is far closer to Peters' outrageous demand of the top OL contract in the market (which is now over $11.5 million a year that Jake Long signed for) than where the Bills started out which is wanting Peters to honor his existing (RT pay scale) contract.

 

The Bills have moved from the $4 mill a year (which by far is the largest paycheck Peters ever saw but that does not seem to matter in the modern NFL where both teams and players seem happy to get every one of our dimes they can) apparently to 8 and given the situation I think its a pretty safe bet that Peters is gonna get a lot more than $8 million a year.

 

Maybe Peters and his agent got to the current position through their intelligent gauging of the market, or through dumb luck, or through getting a couple of things to go their way and they took advantage of these opportunities, but whatever the reason (my guess is opportunism rather than Peters and his posse anticipating just how this would go) I think it takes real blinders not to see the superior negotiating position Peters is in.

 

The 3 big events in this negotiation IMHO were:

 

A. Peters aimed high and stuck to his guns for the most part last off-season-

 

As with most games of chicken (which in essence what last year's juvenile multi-million dollar face off between the Bills and Peters was) no one really won and both sides should count their blessings they survived this dispute to live again. Peters missed camp by holding out until the last minute (the last minute was he crawled back before being docked a game check which would have been serious money. There was a noticeable effect in terms of his performance in the first half of last year as he got off to a slow start. However, this slow start had no real impact on the important stat of W/L as the Bills won despite the initial inconsistent play of Peters. In the more imaginary world of the media (radio and the web being the loudest) Peters was labeled as lousy.

 

However, since the Bills got off to a fast start without Peters hitting the ground running, and many of his teammates rooting for the Bills to set a precedent of caving into player demands, and since Edwards was not killed due to lame LT play both Peters and the Bills escaped his holdout with their lives.

 

B. Peters made the Pro Bowl-

 

This accomplishment really put Peters in the driver's seat. Many Bills fans made leery of the validity of Pro Bowl selection after watching Ruben Brown get in year after year despite having some not very good years sometimes really devalue Pro Bowl picks. However, the critical issue here is market value and whether he deserved it or not Peters scored a big plus by getting voted in by a mixed and balanced opinions of coaches, peers, and fans.

 

One has to give props to Peters for winning this nod as from a marketing/negotiating standpoint this validated his decision to hold out as even with the slow start he still got the nod from this mixed panel. Even for those who want to claim all they care about is play and not popularity, they actually are ignoring play to claim Peters is a bad player as part of his winning this was that his on field performance seemed to this viewer (and is born out by some statistical analysis that looks at which opposing DL player got a sack) improved in the second half of the season probably as he improved from his selfish holdout.

 

C. Dockery was let go-

 

This created a dual advantage for Peters in that this move not only made some cap room for Peters as the Bills cut him rather than pay him a roster bonus, but it also put the Bills in a situation where they already were replacing their starting center and several back-ups on the OL. While some seem to have their panties all up in a wad over Peters not honoring his contract (hello real world are you surprised) it looks really doubtful the Bills will want to replace the majority of their OL in one off-season which they would have to do if they cut Peters.

 

An even greater departure from reality is that some fans are vocal about wanting to trade Peters for draft choices. This is simply a departure from reality in that actual NFL GMs realize that even though the conventional wisdom is a 1st round pick should be a starter (many Bills fans have been fooled by good picks like Nate Clements becoming a star after the Bills traded down to the last third of the 1st round to get him). It does happen a lot that a later pick becomes a starter, but the actual real world occurrence is that its only a little over 50/50 most years for a first round pick to be a starter at the beginning of the next season.

 

Even if the Bills got 2 1st rounders for Peters (could happen but like franchise player Cassel and others a top vet may only bring later round choices in reality) they are likely writing off 09 in terms of OL play as these rookies learn to become vets. When Dockery got cut the cash registers started going off in Peters and his agents head.

 

The bottomline here appears to me that despite the whines of many fans and media types like Ed Kilgore who have instant stories he would not have to work hard to do his job if the Bills stupidly drew a line in the sand, the Bills will likely wait until after the April draft to ink Peters. As the rookie cap is separate from the vet cap who they pick makes little fiscal difference (our decision to do our accounting based on cap to cash may to some extent link rookie contracts to existing contracts but not by a huge amount) and the Bills can roll over and sign Peters when they choose. However, by leaving the situation unclear they also send misinformation to our opponents so outside clarity probably waits until after the draft.

 

However, in the big picture I give my props to Peters and his agent. They appear to have played this well and even in the worse case the Bills ship Peters and he probably really cashes in as his new team would almost certainly want to sign him for his career.

 

Well played Peters.

This is essentially what I said...last year and was promptly gutted for being Parker's butt boy. Peters had nothing to lose last year by holding out and it laid the foundation for a new deal this year as, hopefully, the team doesn't have the stomach for a replay of that. Well stated though and we just all need to hope this doesn't become another 7 month long soap opera.

[Mickey]

I disagree. If he didn't hold out and arrived in great shape and played as well as he did in '07, he would be spending his new huge contract money RIGHT NOW.

 

Other than holding out again (and losing gamechecks) there is nothing Peters can do--he is under contract. Very simply, the Bills may decide to give him a new contract, but they do not have to.

No they don't, not as long as they are content with 7-9 and a healthier bank account because I am sure that is what Ralph wants, not a trophy but a few more samolians. Or they can have another distracting soap opera and one of their best players being useless again until about week 3 or 4 because he missed camp.

[stuckincincy]

I may be wrong but it appears a long lost poster has returned..... I do seem to remember these sort of long extended posts as the norm once upon a time on wall...

 

...now that you mention it, I see some similarities in style, phrasing and the like.

[Dawgg]

Its still too early to declare his assessment of the market and work at Peters' direction a done deal yet (it ain't over 'til its over) but given some of the vitriol spewed last year about how stupid Peters and his agent were in how they played this negotiating exercise, I think a rational assessment of the current situation in negotiation is almost all in Peters' favor.

 

I know there is no requirement and I do not expect any hardcore Bills partisan to be rational, but it is no surprise to me that even with the Bills and Peters reported to be about $3 million apart, I think one needs to realize that this is far closer to Peters' outrageous demand of the top OL contract in the market (which is now over $11.5 million a year that Jake Long signed for) than where the Bills started out which is wanting Peters to honor his existing (RT pay scale) contract.

 

The Bills have moved from the $4 mill a year (which by far is the largest paycheck Peters ever saw but that does not seem to matter in the modern NFL where both teams and players seem happy to get every one of our dimes they can) apparently to 8 and given the situation I think its a pretty safe bet that Peters is gonna get a lot more than $8 million a year.

 

Maybe Peters and his agent got to the current position through their intelligent gauging of the market, or through dumb luck, or through getting a couple of things to go their way and they took advantage of these opportunities, but whatever the reason (my guess is opportunism rather than Peters and his posse anticipating just how this would go) I think it takes real blinders not to see the superior negotiating position Peters is in.

 

The 3 big events in this negotiation IMHO were:

 

A. Peters aimed high and stuck to his guns for the most part last off-season-

 

As with most games of chicken (which in essence what last year's juvenile multi-million dollar face off between the Bills and Peters was) no one really won and both sides should count their blessings they survived this dispute to live again. Peters missed camp by holding out until the last minute (the last minute was he crawled back before being docked a game check which would have been serious money. There was a noticeable effect in terms of his performance in the first half of last year as he got off to a slow start. However, this slow start had no real impact on the important stat of W/L as the Bills won despite the initial inconsistent play of Peters. In the more imaginary world of the media (radio and the web being the loudest) Peters was labeled as lousy.

 

However, since the Bills got off to a fast start without Peters hitting the ground running, and many of his teammates rooting for the Bills to set a precedent of caving into player demands, and since Edwards was not killed due to lame LT play both Peters and the Bills escaped his holdout with their lives.

 

B. Peters made the Pro Bowl-

 

This accomplishment really put Peters in the driver's seat. Many Bills fans made leery of the validity of Pro Bowl selection after watching Ruben Brown get in year after year despite having some not very good years sometimes really devalue Pro Bowl picks. However, the critical issue here is market value and whether he deserved it or not Peters scored a big plus by getting voted in by a mixed and balanced opinions of coaches, peers, and fans.

 

One has to give props to Peters for winning this nod as from a marketing/negotiating standpoint this validated his decision to hold out as even with the slow start he still got the nod from this mixed panel. Even for those who want to claim all they care about is play and not popularity, they actually are ignoring play to claim Peters is a bad player as part of his winning this was that his on field performance seemed to this viewer (and is born out by some statistical analysis that looks at which opposing DL player got a sack) improved in the second half of the season probably as he improved from his selfish holdout.

 

C. Dockery was let go-

 

This created a dual advantage for Peters in that this move not only made some cap room for Peters as the Bills cut him rather than pay him a roster bonus, but it also put the Bills in a situation where they already were replacing their starting center and several back-ups on the OL. While some seem to have their panties all up in a wad over Peters not honoring his contract (hello real world are you surprised) it looks really doubtful the Bills will want to replace the majority of their OL in one off-season which they would have to do if they cut Peters.

 

An even greater departure from reality is that some fans are vocal about wanting to trade Peters for draft choices. This is simply a departure from reality in that actual NFL GMs realize that even though the conventional wisdom is a 1st round pick should be a starter (many Bills fans have been fooled by good picks like Nate Clements becoming a star after the Bills traded down to the last third of the 1st round to get him). It does happen a lot that a later pick becomes a starter, but the actual real world occurrence is that its only a little over 50/50 most years for a first round pick to be a starter at the beginning of the next season.

 

Even if the Bills got 2 1st rounders for Peters (could happen but like franchise player Cassel and others a top vet may only bring later round choices in reality) they are likely writing off 09 in terms of OL play as these rookies learn to become vets. When Dockery got cut the cash registers started going off in Peters and his agents head.

 

The bottomline here appears to me that despite the whines of many fans and media types like Ed Kilgore who have instant stories he would not have to work hard to do his job if the Bills stupidly drew a line in the sand, the Bills will likely wait until after the April draft to ink Peters. As the rookie cap is separate from the vet cap who they pick makes little fiscal difference (our decision to do our accounting based on cap to cash may to some extent link rookie contracts to existing contracts but not by a huge amount) and the Bills can roll over and sign Peters when they choose. However, by leaving the situation unclear they also send misinformation to our opponents so outside clarity probably waits until after the draft.

 

However, in the big picture I give my props to Peters and his agent. They appear to have played this well and even in the worse case the Bills ship Peters and he probably really cashes in as his new team would almost certainly want to sign him for his career.

 

Well played Peters.

 

Great post -- and your 100% correct.

 

Of course, you can't expect the "herd mentality" fans on this board to grasp this. They will side with the organization regardless of the situation.

[Dibs]

Its still too early to declare his assessment of the market and work at Peters' direction a done deal yet (it ain't over 'til its over) but given some of the vitriol spewed last year about how stupid Peters and his agent were in how they played this negotiating exercise, I think a rational assessment of the current situation in negotiation is almost all in Peters' favor......

I enjoy your posts D&C and appreciate how much thought you put into them.....and usually agree with you on what you have to say. But in regards to this situation I tend to largely disagree.....

 

I agree that the end result looks pretty good for Peters. He most likely will become one of, if not the highest paid OLman in the league. To give props to his agent however, implies that the direction he took was the wisest course of action(or at least wasn't a bad choice).

 

When playing poker, if somebody assumes you are bluffing & therefore calls you.....and then gets lucky on the river.....you don't give them props for their play. This to me is a similar situation.

 

Peters was lucky to make his second pro bowl. He didn't have anywhere near as good a year as 2007 & even though he finished the year closer to that form his overall performance for the year would never have netted him a probowl nod throughout the previous decade. Without that second probowl appearance his 'worth' and 'bargaining power' would have been significantly reduced.

 

The other more important aspect is 'the hold out'.

As you mentioned.....he stuck to his guns and held out. What was the purpose of doing that? He was looking to get himself a massive new extension last season. The hold out was to try and force the Bills into action. This didn't work. Interestingly, had the holdout worked he would have been looking at an overall money level quite a bit less than what he is looking at now(was probably asking for around $9-$10mil/year).

 

What would likely have happened if he didn't hold out?

He could have made it clear that they expect a new deal in 2009(which I'm certain the Bills were already on board with).

Assuming it was his holdout that caused his regression in 2008......he would have played at true all-pro level. This would have not only increased his bargaining power but most likely would have set him up for even more money than he is looking for now.....and I'm sure the negotiations would be quicker and smoother as the Bills would have gotten 2 full seasons to become 'sure' with their purchase.

 

 

Basically the plan of his agent was to 'get more money now'......which didn't work.....and hindered the chance of even greater money in the following year. He is in a good position now despite the holdout.....not because of it.

[FLFan]

At the risk of being labeled "irrational" or "bitter" by those of you who seem to know everything, I would have to disagree with your conclusion that this has been a smart strategy. Despite all of Peters' foot stomping, he is still under contract for the previously committed amount - for two more years. He still must play for that money or be satisfied to end his career without another dime. The Bill's still own the power position here.

 

The fact that Peters made the pro bowl last year is inconsequential. By all rational standards his play was subpar. Reputation often carries players beyond their performance, but this does not last. In other words, if he pulls another lazy off season and extended hold out, that pro bowl streak is over. Do you honestly think other teams, evaluating potential interest in some future free agency, will over look his attitude and poor performance directly resulting from his unwillingness to play to his contract? His value in this respect deminishes as time goes on.

 

Finally, there is the injury situation. His career could be over the next time he takes a snap. As he is under contract to the Bills, not taking that risk does not improve his position. If he steps on the field, he risks getting nothing.

 

Given all that, is his agent playing this smart, or playing this for a maximum payout to his commission account, without regard to Jason's best interests? I say the latter, but of course I must be irrational and bitter. The Bills hold the cards. I encourage them to play those cards to maximum advantage for the franchise over the long term. If that means letting him sit - let him sit. If it means trading him for reasonable value (high number 1 at least) , then so be it. They should not cave in to unreasonable demands from a greedy agent and a misguided and more than slightly ignorant football player, no matter how indespensible he thinks he is. There is no one, in any job, that can not be replaced.

[AJ1]

Convincingly dazed and confused, IMO.

[oak tree 12]

Its still too early to declare his assessment of the market and work at Peters' direction a done deal yet (it ain't over 'til its over) but given some of the vitriol spewed last year about how stupid Peters and his agent were in how they played this negotiating exercise, I think a rational assessment of the current situation in negotiation is almost all in Peters' favor.

 

I know there is no requirement and I do not expect any hardcore Bills partisan to be rational, but it is no surprise to me that even with the Bills and Peters reported to be about $3 million apart, I think one needs to realize that this is far closer to Peters' outrageous demand of the top OL contract in the market (which is now over $11.5 million a year that Jake Long signed for) than where the Bills started out which is wanting Peters to honor his existing (RT pay scale) contract.

 

The Bills have moved from the $4 mill a year (which by far is the largest paycheck Peters ever saw but that does not seem to matter in the modern NFL where both teams and players seem happy to get every one of our dimes they can) apparently to 8 and given the situation I think its a pretty safe bet that Peters is gonna get a lot more than $8 million a year.

 

Maybe Peters and his agent got to the current position through their intelligent gauging of the market, or through dumb luck, or through getting a couple of things to go their way and they took advantage of these opportunities, but whatever the reason (my guess is opportunism rather than Peters and his posse anticipating just how this would go) I think it takes real blinders not to see the superior negotiating position Peters is in.

 

The 3 big events in this negotiation IMHO were:

 

A. Peters aimed high and stuck to his guns for the most part last off-season-

 

As with most games of chicken (which in essence what last year's juvenile multi-million dollar face off between the Bills and Peters was) no one really won and both sides should count their blessings they survived this dispute to live again. Peters missed camp by holding out until the last minute (the last minute was he crawled back before being docked a game check which would have been serious money. There was a noticeable effect in terms of his performance in the first half of last year as he got off to a slow start. However, this slow start had no real impact on the important stat of W/L as the Bills won despite the initial inconsistent play of Peters. In the more imaginary world of the media (radio and the web being the loudest) Peters was labeled as lousy.

 

However, since the Bills got off to a fast start without Peters hitting the ground running, and many of his teammates rooting for the Bills to set a precedent of caving into player demands, and since Edwards was not killed due to lame LT play both Peters and the Bills escaped his holdout with their lives.

 

B. Peters made the Pro Bowl-

 

This accomplishment really put Peters in the driver's seat. Many Bills fans made leery of the validity of Pro Bowl selection after watching Ruben Brown get in year after year despite having some not very good years sometimes really devalue Pro Bowl picks. However, the critical issue here is market value and whether he deserved it or not Peters scored a big plus by getting voted in by a mixed and balanced opinions of coaches, peers, and fans.

 

One has to give props to Peters for winning this nod as from a marketing/negotiating standpoint this validated his decision to hold out as even with the slow start he still got the nod from this mixed panel. Even for those who want to claim all they care about is play and not popularity, they actually are ignoring play to claim Peters is a bad player as part of his winning this was that his on field performance seemed to this viewer (and is born out by some statistical analysis that looks at which opposing DL player got a sack) improved in the second half of the season probably as he improved from his selfish holdout.

 

C. Dockery was let go-

 

This created a dual advantage for Peters in that this move not only made some cap room for Peters as the Bills cut him rather than pay him a roster bonus, but it also put the Bills in a situation where they already were replacing their starting center and several back-ups on the OL. While some seem to have their panties all up in a wad over Peters not honoring his contract (hello real world are you surprised) it looks really doubtful the Bills will want to replace the majority of their OL in one off-season which they would have to do if they cut Peters.

 

An even greater departure from reality is that some fans are vocal about wanting to trade Peters for draft choices. This is simply a departure from reality in that actual NFL GMs realize that even though the conventional wisdom is a 1st round pick should be a starter (many Bills fans have been fooled by good picks like Nate Clements becoming a star after the Bills traded down to the last third of the 1st round to get him). It does happen a lot that a later pick becomes a starter, but the actual real world occurrence is that its only a little over 50/50 most years for a first round pick to be a starter at the beginning of the next season.

 

Even if the Bills got 2 1st rounders for Peters (could happen but like franchise player Cassel and others a top vet may only bring later round choices in reality) they are likely writing off 09 in terms of OL play as these rookies learn to become vets. When Dockery got cut the cash registers started going off in Peters and his agents head.

 

The bottomline here appears to me that despite the whines of many fans and media types like Ed Kilgore who have instant stories he would not have to work hard to do his job if the Bills stupidly drew a line in the sand, the Bills will likely wait until after the April draft to ink Peters. As the rookie cap is separate from the vet cap who they pick makes little fiscal difference (our decision to do our accounting based on cap to cash may to some extent link rookie contracts to existing contracts but not by a huge amount) and the Bills can roll over and sign Peters when they choose. However, by leaving the situation unclear they also send misinformation to our opponents so outside clarity probably waits until after the draft.

 

However, in the big picture I give my props to Peters and his agent. They appear to have played this well and even in the worse case the Bills ship Peters and he probably really cashes in as his new team would almost certainly want to sign him for his career.

 

Well played Peters.

 

peters and his brilliant agent have no leverage what so ever he is under contract for 2 more years he can hold out hurt his play again and come crawling back again like last year.

 

also his image will take another hit with a 9 million dollar contract sitting on the table.

 

lastly you assume a lot thinking teams are going to surrender a first round pick and then pay peters top 5 QB money I think not!

[zonabb]

Nothing in this situation favors Peters and his agent.

 

1. He's still under contract for apparently two more years. In the world I live in, that means you have ZERO leverage. Sure, he can ask for a trade or a raise but he's not entitled to it.

 

2. He held out last year and go nowhere. They've proven they're willing to play hardball, so where is his leverage on this.

 

3. In good faith, realizing he's underpaid, they apparently offered him a deal. They didn't have to, see No. 1 above.

 

4. He's not the best LT in football nor should he be paid like he is. If he exhibited the same good faith last year as a player that the Bills are now in offering to renegotiate, he'd have been paid buy now. No one knows what the Bills would have offered last year because he never came to camp to negotiate so you can't say he's better off because he's going to get more. I'm not sure how potentially last year and two more years under his current salary make that a win-win?

 

5 Comparing Long to Peters is an easy comparison since it helps your point. But it's wrong. First round draft picks are paid based on potential and their draft slot. Just because the Dolphins needed a LT and drafted one firts overall doesn't make him the best in the league nor does it or should it set the LT salary bar at his salary. Owners and players alike have stated that the salaries paid to drafted first rounders is a joke and needs to be dealt with. So don't for one instance thing teh Bills or any other team thinks that what Long got is the going rate for LTs/.

 

6. By not signing a current offering and floating the idea out there that they're 3 mil apart, the agent has done what for his client? Walked away from a very reasonable offer and potentially left his client open to 2 more years (and the potential for injury or decline in play) under the current contract.

 

He's got two options:

 

1. Take the best offer the Bills give him while he's still healthy and can still be great and ask for a 7 year deal or so and shoot for $10 mil per. That'd make $70 large if he made it that long.

 

2. Play the final two years for his $6 mil total, hope and pray you don't get injured or regress, and his free agency at 29 with about 5 years left. Pace is shot at 33 and Ogden retired at 34.

 

Under either scenario I bet he'd end up with very similar total dollars over the next 7 season barring injury or a decline in play. However, the onus is on him and his agent to get a deal done now to INSURE against injury and get him that signing bonus and higher annual salary.

 

Now is the time for him to get his last big and best deal. 27 is an athletes prime physical age (scientifically proven). But to think his agent is doing this right is wrong, the agent knows he needs to get a better deal done and sooner rather than later. They're in the hot seat, not the driver's seat.

 

What incentive do the Bills have to trade a $3 mil LT who's a top 5-10 at his position that they have under contract for tow more seasons? ZERO. This is a business for them too.

 

By the way, I love the lead in to this thread where the author goes with the "belittle and demean" card on his intended audiance (something about irrational fans) as a way to pathetically lend credibility to himself while trying to paint everyone else as moronic. That's weak and transparent and deperate.

[Leonidas]

Your post certainly contradicts your username. Well said. But I don't understand this last 3 Million a year the Bills won't pay. Three years ago they dished out $49 Million for Derick Dockery. And he is a guard, not even a right tackle. Tack on a conservative 5% increase per season, and that same contract would cost the Bills $56 Million for a guard today. $56 Million divided by 5 years is 11.2 Million per season, and 11 Million per is what you are saying Peters is looking for.

 

I'm not sure how overpaying Dockery - and then acknowledging you overpaid for him by promptly cutting him - is at all relevant here. Compare apples to apples - don't just look at Jake Long and Dockery, compare Peters to the other 30 starting LT's in the league. Is he underpaid now? I would say so. Does being an undrafted free agent play into that? Certainly. Is that fair? I think so. But is he a top 5 LT? Statistics argue otherwise. Sure, he had one good year in '07, but that doesn't warrant $11.5M/year, sorry. Not even close.

 

 

I still think the circle-jerks should ante up and pay the kid, and lock him up for the next 3 or 4 seasons at least, with a huge signing bonus and front loaded 7 or 8 year contract.

 

Is that you Jason??

 

 

Your post certainly contradicts your username. Well said. But I don't understand this last 3 Million a year the Bills won't pay. Three years ago they dished out $49 Million for Derick Dockery. And he is a guard, not even a right tackle. Tack on a conservative 5% increase per season, and that same contract would cost the Bills $56 Million for a guard today. $56 Million divided by 5 years is 11.2 Million per season, and 11 Million per is what you are saying Peters is looking for. Obviously the road block has to be the up front bonus and front loading of the guaranteed money Peters' agent is most likely demanding. Bonus cash and guaranteed money is what the problem always is for the Ralph Wilson Bills. No matter how smart Peters and his agent may be regarding this impasse, I still think the circle-jerks should ante up and pay the kid, and lock him up for the next 3 or 4 seasons at least, with a huge signing bonus and front loaded 7 or 8 year contract. If they trade him or let him hold out for three more seasons, finding another 2 time Pro Bowl left tackle under the age of 28 will be almost impossible. And even if they do luck out and draft one, by the time he becomes a Pro Bowler, he will only cost evern more money to sign to his long term contract.

 

You mean another tackle who can give up 11.5 sacks/year? Yeah, that's a tough one. When you are 32nd in the league in giving up sacks at your position you aren't irreplaceable.

 

 

Great post -- and your 100% correct.

 

Of course, you can't expect the "herd mentality" fans on this board to grasp this. They will side with the organization regardless of the situation.

 

Yeah, we're all just retards with 4th grade educations

[Dawgg]

I'm not sure how overpaying Dockery - and then acknowledging you overpaid for him by promptly cutting him - is at all relevant here. Compare apples to apples - don't just look at Jake Long and Dockery, compare Peters to the other 30 starting LT's in the league. Is he underpaid now? I would say so. Does being an undrafted free agent play into that? Certainly. Is that fair? I think so. But is he a top 5 LT? Statistics argue otherwise. Sure, he had one good year in '07, but that doesn't warrant $11.5M/year, sorry. Not even close.

Doesn't matter. Peters has all the leverage here because the Bills don't have a credible replacement on the roster.

 

 

Yeah, we're all just retards with 4th grade educations

You said it not me.