San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 This article lists the "after the fact" accuracy of mock drafts done by some of the bigger name draftniks. http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Artic..._scorecard.html It didn't include Mike Mayock's draft but I found one dated 4/8/08 and based on that one, Mayock got 4 of 32 first rounders correct. He had the Giants selecting Mario Manningham which they did...in the 3rd round. As the article states, you're better off evaluating players and team needs yourself. Though we probably don't know as much as most of these guys, we can still guess just about as well.
Leonidas Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 Mock drafts are impossible. All it takes it one team to mix it up - that includes trading up/down - and the rest of the mock is thrown off. I'm not sure why anyone is surprised by this...
In space no one can hear Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 Actually the best I see at projecting the draft each year is Nolan Nawrocki of Pro Football Weekly. 2008 Mock Draft Last year he hit on 12 of the first round picks. Not bad. He was extremely accurate with the top 10 picks.
lets_go_bills Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 I think the problem lies in the fact that everyone with a computer and internet access is qualified to make a mock draft.
McD Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 I think the problem lies in the fact that everyone with a computer and internet access is qualified to make a mock draft. Substitute "qualified" with "able" and you're dead on.
silvermike Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 Wow, that's a smarmy article. Look, of course it's unlikely anyone will make a mock draft that's more than 20-30% accurate. That doesn't mean they're worthless, it just means that the draft is complicated. If experts are swinging at 20%, that doesn't mean they're not experts. It means that there are well over 5 options for each pick, and they're beating random chance. And there's also more to a mock than individual picks. You want to give readers a sense of team needs, and the relative rankings by position of each player. They also go brag about their stupid monkey making picks, when the monkey's not really choosing names randomly, he's just randomizing the consensus picks. If the experts reach a consensus on the top 15 players to go in the draft, then they've done something that you couldn't do on your own.
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 18, 2009 Author Posted March 18, 2009 Wow, that's a smarmy article. Look, of course it's unlikely anyone will make a mock draft that's more than 20-30% accurate. That doesn't mean they're worthless, it just means that the draft is complicated. If experts are swinging at 20%, that doesn't mean they're not experts. It means that there are well over 5 options for each pick, and they're beating random chance. And there's also more to a mock than individual picks. You want to give readers a sense of team needs, and the relative rankings by position of each player. They also go brag about their stupid monkey making picks, when the monkey's not really choosing names randomly, he's just randomizing the consensus picks. If the experts reach a consensus on the top 15 players to go in the draft, then they've done something that you couldn't do on your own. Well silvermike, You can certainly object to the tone of the article. I posted this because there's debates going on here quite often about how people like Mayock over Kiper or Kiper over McShay or whatever. As informed fans know, it is a crapshoot. And that certainly doesn't keep me or others from "eating what they're serving." The point of the article remains valid. I thought it was a good reminder that mock drafts in general have limited value. I am excited to see Nawrocki's (ProFootballWeekly) mock draft, whenever that comes out. It looks like he waits until the very end unfortunately.
firstngoal Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 It's impossible to nail all the picks in a mock draft, that's why they call them "Mock drafts". This website ranks all the top mocks throughout the USA. http://www.thehuddlereport.com/Free/mockdraftrankings.shtml
GripnRip Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 I think the problem lies in the fact that everyone with a computer and internet access is qualified to make a mock draft. The list contains journalists and people on TV, not bloggers.
Cornerville Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 Rag all you want on how Mayock does in his mock, but he is one of the best at what he does. These guys are just guides, they talk about the players...they get you excited for the draft...and it works...so what if they don't get a lot of picks right?
afcfan1 Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 Mock drafts are for people like Bills fans. Those for whom this is the happiest time of year. Because we all know when the season actually starts, we are going to see the same colorless, boring, no shot of making the playoffs football team we see every year. So please Bills fans, enjoy this time. Optimism is in the air and still several months away from becoming the reality that is Buffalo Bills football. ENJOY!
H2o Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 This article lists the "after the fact" accuracy of mock drafts done by some of the bigger name draftniks. http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Artic..._scorecard.html It didn't include Mike Mayock's draft but I found one dated 4/8/08 and based on that one, Mayock got 4 of 32 first rounders correct. He had the Giants selecting Mario Manningham which they did...in the 3rd round. As the article states, you're better off evaluating players and team needs yourself. Though we probably don't know as much as most of these guys, we can still guess just about as well. And this makes it so funny how people put stock in Mayock like he's written the "Draft Prospect" bible or something. If he was that great of a talent evaluator then he would be working for an NFL front office and not the NFL Network.
Estro Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 Actually the best I see at projecting the draft each year is Nolan Nawrocki of Pro Football Weekly. 2008 Mock Draft Last year he hit on 12 of the first round picks. Not bad. He was extremely accurate with the top 10 picks. Agreed, last years mock was amazing. He has to have connections with pro personnel to do that well and that's the type of site I like. Pro Football Weekly is most credible come this time of year
Max997 Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 This article lists the "after the fact" accuracy of mock drafts done by some of the bigger name draftniks. http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Artic..._scorecard.html It didn't include Mike Mayock's draft but I found one dated 4/8/08 and based on that one, Mayock got 4 of 32 first rounders correct. He had the Giants selecting Mario Manningham which they did...in the 3rd round. and yet people on this board constantly talk about how good Mayock is with his mocks and think of him as a genius because he got the Whitner pick right mock drafts are for fun, thats all
ndirish1978 Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 Wow, that's a smarmy article. Look, of course it's unlikely anyone will make a mock draft that's more than 20-30% accurate. That doesn't mean they're worthless, it just means that the draft is complicated. If experts are swinging at 20%, that doesn't mean they're not experts. It means that there are well over 5 options for each pick, and they're beating random chance. And there's also more to a mock than individual picks. You want to give readers a sense of team needs, and the relative rankings by position of each player. They also go brag about their stupid monkey making picks, when the monkey's not really choosing names randomly, he's just randomizing the consensus picks. If the experts reach a consensus on the top 15 players to go in the draft, then they've done something that you couldn't do on your own. Actually, I would say it shows that they are NOT experts in the draft. They are experts at evaluating college talent. Draft experts do not exist.
GOBILLS78 Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 It's just innocent bar fodder. They are called mock drafts, after all. If your team isn't picking in the top five, there's really no reason to pay attention to them besides to criticize them. That being said, I love them.
lets_go_bills Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 The list contains journalists and people on TV, not bloggers. It appears my attempt at sarcasm wasn't well received.
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