RCow Posted November 2, 2004 Share Posted November 2, 2004 Luntz thinks Kerry is going to win. Turnout overall has been as much about economic security as about national security vote. Kerry is winning economic voters 4 to 1. (Bush wins on national security vote.) Kerry could be headed to 310 or 320 electoral vote. But if Bush carries Fla. or Ohio, Bush can still win. (Networks aren't likely to make a call early because of tight races in Fla. and Ohio.) But . . . Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent in Fla. and Ohio Pa.: 54 percent for Kerry Wisc: 3 point lead for Kerry Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win) NM: Kerry plus 2 Nev: Bush plus 1 NH: Kerry by 3 NJ: 8 points for Kerry Colo: Bush plus 2 Mich: Kerry plus 4 When all is said and done: "Kerry's people must be feeling very confident." Election not over. But based on initial data, Luntz's educated judgment is that Kerry is headed to victory. Unless something happens with late voting. Right now, Kerry is doing about 2 points better in states where expected to be closer. Looks like economy security more important than Bush knew. Senate: Looks like GOP picks up 3. Dems pick up 1, for net up 2 for GOP Thune over Daschle by 4 points. Likely enough to sustain Indian reservations numbers coming in later for Daschle. GOP picking up N.C. and S.C. Bunning in Ky. Oklahoma goes GOP (Coburn) Plus 3 for GOP. Castor in Fla. is looking good. Salazar up in Colo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUBillsFan Posted November 2, 2004 Share Posted November 2, 2004 Luntz thinks Kerry is going to win. Turnout overall has been as much about economic security as about national security vote. Kerry is winning economic voters 4 to 1. (Bush wins on national security vote.) Kerry could be headed to 310 or 320 electoral vote. But if Bush carries Fla. or Ohio, Bush can still win. (Networks aren't likely to make a call early because of tight races in Fla. and Ohio.) But . . . Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent in Fla. and Ohio Pa.: 54 percent for Kerry Wisc: 3 point lead for Kerry Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win) NM: Kerry plus 2 Nev: Bush plus 1 NH: Kerry by 3 NJ: 8 points for Kerry Colo: Bush plus 2 Mich: Kerry plus 4 When all is said and done: "Kerry's people must be feeling very confident." Election not over. But based on initial data, Luntz's educated judgment is that Kerry is headed to victory. Unless something happens with late voting. Right now, Kerry is doing about 2 points better in states where expected to be closer. Looks like economy security more important than Bush knew. Senate: Looks like GOP picks up 3. Dems pick up 1, for net up 2 for GOP Thune over Daschle by 4 points. Likely enough to sustain Indian reservations numbers coming in later for Daschle. GOP picking up N.C. and S.C. Bunning in Ky. Oklahoma goes GOP (Coburn) Plus 3 for GOP. Castor in Fla. is looking good. Salazar up in Colo. 97564[/snapback] If Kerry wins I hope the GOP holds enough of a majority in congress to keep him from causing too much harm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted November 2, 2004 Share Posted November 2, 2004 If Kerry wins I hope the GOP holds enough of a majority in congress to keep him from causing too much harm... 97586[/snapback] This is exactly what is wrong with this country right now. "Our way" vs. "their way"...how about doing something good for the country instead of these petty politicians and their corporate masters looking out only for themselves? I hope whoever is elected president works with congress in an attempt to do something worthwhile instead of just stonewalling the opposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chicot Posted November 2, 2004 Share Posted November 2, 2004 Luntz thinks Kerry is going to win. Turnout overall has been as much about economic security as about national security vote. Kerry is winning economic voters 4 to 1. (Bush wins on national security vote.) Kerry could be headed to 310 or 320 electoral vote. But if Bush carries Fla. or Ohio, Bush can still win. (Networks aren't likely to make a call early because of tight races in Fla. and Ohio.) But . . . Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent in Fla. and Ohio Pa.: 54 percent for Kerry Wisc: 3 point lead for Kerry Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win) NM: Kerry plus 2 Nev: Bush plus 1 NH: Kerry by 3 NJ: 8 points for Kerry Colo: Bush plus 2 Mich: Kerry plus 4 When all is said and done: "Kerry's people must be feeling very confident." Election not over. But based on initial data, Luntz's educated judgment is that Kerry is headed to victory. Unless something happens with late voting. Right now, Kerry is doing about 2 points better in states where expected to be closer. Looks like economy security more important than Bush knew. Senate: Looks like GOP picks up 3. Dems pick up 1, for net up 2 for GOP Thune over Daschle by 4 points. Likely enough to sustain Indian reservations numbers coming in later for Daschle. GOP picking up N.C. and S.C. Bunning in Ky. Oklahoma goes GOP (Coburn) Plus 3 for GOP. Castor in Fla. is looking good. Salazar up in Colo. 97564[/snapback] I saw Luntz on BBC TV a few minutes ago, saying much the same thing. He's been a guest on news programs a few times over here and his assessments always seem to be honest with little partisan bs, even if he is a "republican pollster". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buftex Posted November 2, 2004 Share Posted November 2, 2004 If Kerry wins I hope the GOP holds enough of a majority in congress to keep him from causing too much harm... 97586[/snapback] This has been as ugly an election as I can remember. This type of attitude only assures that there will be plenty more ugliness to come. Not signaling you out IUBillsFan, honestly. We all do it. I really hope that something changes. Though I was never a George Bush fan, I will admitt, the one thing he promised when he took office in 2000 was that he would work on having a bi-partisan government. He harped on it, and did the same here in Texas as governor. In my opinion, it has been his most miserable failure. If he is re-elected, after this disgraceful campaign season, I don' t see it getting much better. It is not Bush's way to change course, or re-asses things. Kerry, should he be elected, won't likely fare much better. I do have more faith, however, that Kerry will take an honest stab at it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede316 Posted November 2, 2004 Share Posted November 2, 2004 Where are you getting these reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted November 2, 2004 Share Posted November 2, 2004 if he is right it is only because of the blind squirrel phenomenon. Of course he is going to say that. He is going by the same bogus numbers that everyone else is. If he said anything else he would have to justify his statements with no data. Yet, these polls qualify as no "data"... E. Dole was down by 6 in these polls in 2000 - she won by 9.... The list of similar outcomes is long. In fact, they did AWAY with the VCS polling in 2000 it was so inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted November 2, 2004 Share Posted November 2, 2004 This is exactly what is wrong with this country right now. "Our way" vs. "their way"...how about doing something good for the country instead of these petty politicians and their corporate masters looking out only for themselves? I hope whoever is elected president works with congress in an attempt to do something worthwhile instead of just stonewalling the opposition. 97607[/snapback] Good luck with that. It stopped being about the will of the people before I was born. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBorn1960 Posted November 2, 2004 Share Posted November 2, 2004 Luntz thinks Kerry is going to win. Turnout overall has been as much about economic security as about national security vote. Kerry is winning economic voters 4 to 1. (Bush wins on national security vote.) Kerry could be headed to 310 or 320 electoral vote. But if Bush carries Fla. or Ohio, Bush can still win. (Networks aren't likely to make a call early because of tight races in Fla. and Ohio.) But . . . Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent in Fla. and Ohio Pa.: 54 percent for Kerry Wisc: 3 point lead for Kerry Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win) NM: Kerry plus 2 Nev: Bush plus 1 NH: Kerry by 3 NJ: 8 points for Kerry Colo: Bush plus 2 Mich: Kerry plus 4 When all is said and done: "Kerry's people must be feeling very confident." Election not over. But based on initial data, Luntz's educated judgment is that Kerry is headed to victory. Unless something happens with late voting. Right now, Kerry is doing about 2 points better in states where expected to be closer. Looks like economy security more important than Bush knew. Senate: Looks like GOP picks up 3. Dems pick up 1, for net up 2 for GOP Thune over Daschle by 4 points. Likely enough to sustain Indian reservations numbers coming in later for Daschle. GOP picking up N.C. and S.C. Bunning in Ky. Oklahoma goes GOP (Coburn) Plus 3 for GOP. Castor in Fla. is looking good. Salazar up in Colo. 97564[/snapback] Or maybe they are trying to suppress the vote by trying to insuiate that the spread is insurmountable.... These spreads are not as big as Gore had in 2000... What say we wait until the voting is done and the votes are counted.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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