VABills Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 It started crashing in may when the Messiah won the nomination. I don't know if it's related or not, but I figure the money guys figured that the socialist government that Pelosi, Raid and Obama would be pushing through would be bad for business. Since it's what we're seeing, along with an already questionable economy it just got a lot worse. remember when rich folks can't spend money out of bad public opinion we're not hurting them, we're hurting the low wage hotel workers, waiters, etc...
Helmet_hair Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 It started crashing in may when the Messiah won the nomination. I don't know if it's related or not, but I figure the money guys figured that the socialist government that Pelosi, Raid and Obama would be pushing through would be bad for business. Since it's what we're seeing, along with an already questionable economy it just got a lot worse. remember when rich folks can't spend money out of bad public opinion we're not hurting them, we're hurting the low wage hotel workers, waiters, etc... I think we will all soon get a lesson in Trickle-down economics. It's alive and well!
Pete Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 I think we will all soon get a lesson in Trickle-down economics. It's alive and well! And Enron, Global Crossing, MCI, Tyco, etc cooking their books had nothing to do with the collapse. If anyone looked at companies 10Ks the past 20 years they would understand some dynamics of this downturn
drinkTHEkoolaid Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 It started crashing in may when the Messiah won the nomination. I don't know if it's related or not, but I figure the money guys figured that the socialist government that Pelosi, Raid and Obama would be pushing through would be bad for business. Since it's what we're seeing, along with an already questionable economy it just got a lot worse. remember when rich folks can't spend money out of bad public opinion we're not hurting them, we're hurting the low wage hotel workers, waiters, etc... so true.
tennesseeboy Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 I think we will all soon get a lesson in Trickle-down economics. It's alive and well! The only trickle down I've seen is the Republican give away to the bankers and the two of them peeing all over us and blaming a guy whose been in office less than ten weeks! I love it after haring all of the PPP'ers blaming Clinton and absolving Bush for 9/11 because Bushie had been in office for only nine months!
/dev/null Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 Get over it-It's only money. Yeah I know. We can always just print more http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_yM0wutEGO5E/SXaf...Dollar.Bill.jpg
ExiledInIllinois Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 It started crashing in may when the Messiah won the nomination. I don't know if it's related or not, but I figure the money guys figured that the socialist government that Pelosi, Raid and Obama would be pushing through would be bad for business. Since it's what we're seeing, along with an already questionable economy it just got a lot worse. remember when rich folks can't spend money out of bad public opinion we're not hurting them, we're hurting the low wage hotel workers, waiters, etc... So they are doing it out of spite... Not the good of the country? Doesn't this point to some kind of tacit collusion? I mean... You said it.
ExiledInIllinois Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 The only trickle down I've seen is the Republican give away to the bankers and the two of them peeing all over us and blaming a guy whose been in office less than ten weeks! I love it after haring all of the PPP'ers blaming Clinton and absolving Bush for 9/11 because Bushie had been in office for only nine months! You do the math Tenny... Of course you can do more damage in 9 months (actually 8, W took the whole month of August off for some R&R) than you can do in 10 weeks!
Chef Jim Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 So they are doing it out of spite... Not the good of the country? Doesn't this point to some kind of tacit collusion? I mean... You said it. That's not what he's saying. That's not how the market works. Learn how is works before you call it a con game. Don't assume that this means I agree with VA because I don't.
DC Tom Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 The only trickle down I've seen is the Republican give away to the bankers and the two of them peeing all over us and blaming a guy whose been in office less than ten weeks! I love it after haring all of the PPP'ers blaming Clinton and absolving Bush for 9/11 because Bushie had been in office for only nine months! Six weeks, as of tomorrow. And while I can accept blaming Obama for the stock market dropping below 7000, given the usual dynamics of the market (short-term decisions are based largely on immediate perception, which usually translates to superficialities, and "Obama is going to tax the sh-- out of corporations and the upper class" is just the kind of superficial nonsense that would drive a fall like this), it's far from a proven fact. (It's not Obama's fault, for example, that AIG posted a sixty BILLION loss last quarter.) But - and here's the very important point - the stock market isn't the economy. It's a market - a bunch of people buying and selling assets based on what they think will happen in the future. Certainly Obama can affect that, even after six weeks in office. But just because he can affect that, doesn't mean it's in any way meaningful. And by the way...you're still a moron.
BuffaloBill Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 People always get lambasted for "timing the market"... Yadda, yadda, yadda, and how bad it is to do it. Actually timing the market as a whole is difficult. However one key advantage that an individual investor has (assuming they invest in liquid stock with daily decent volumes) is the speed at which they can pull back to cash with individual stocks. "Buy and Hold" is simply a phrase or idea that people who have not put any thought into investing hang on to. I pulled back to cash last October and much to the dismay of my brokerage (useless as they are) I am still sitting on it pulling down 5% annual in a cash fund. I am now not trying to "time" the low as the chances of that are small. I am looking for technical indications that we hit the low and there are upward (bullish) indications in the market before I get back in. To your original point sometimes what you do not lose is as important as what you make.
DC Tom Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 Actually timing the market as a whole is difficult. However one key advantage that an individual investor has (assuming they invest in liquid stock with daily decent volumes) is the speed at which they can pull back to cash with individual stocks. "Buy and Hold" is simply a phrase or idea that people who have not put any thought into investing hang on to. I pulled back to cash last October and much to the dismay of my brokerage (useless as they are) I am still sitting on it pulling down 5% annual in a cash fund. I am now not trying to "time" the low as the chances of that are small. I am looking for technical indications that we hit the low and there are upward (bullish) indications in the market before I get back in. To your original point sometimes what you do not lose is as important as what you make. Another key advantage: individual investors are not constrained by image. In certain circumstances, professional investors who answer to others will have to bail out of positions just to avoid the pain of holding them (a great example: airline stocks after 9/11. There was no real reason to bail on the industry as a whole - the government wasn't going to let the entire industry go bankrupt over a terrorist attack, they were going to support them. But people like mutual fund managers, who have bosses to answer to, would rather dump the position that face questions like "Why are you still owning airline stocks? What the hell is wrong with you?") Individuals aren't usually so constrained. And I made about 250% off those airline stocks in three months. Got me through a year of unemployment. Haven't yet seen many opportunities like that in this market, though.
Magox Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 It's called deflation. The world is slowing down, we are experiencing a massive systemic breakdown which is causing all asset classes to decline. I remember hearing both Bernanke and Paulson say in 2007 that the "subprime mortgage markets were CONTAINED" Boy we're they wrong. No doubt that the housing bubble, irresponsable lending/borrowing and lax regulation led to where we are, but it wasn't just that. The Mortgage/commercial/credit card/ backed securities was the TNT that brought down the house. AIG today posted a $61.7 Billion dollar loss FOR THE QUARTER Trust me, this wasn't because of bad insurance investments on properties, boats and etc. They insured all these highly leveraged mortgage backed securities that were as much as 30 times leveraged. 30 FRICKIN times leveraged. It was back during the Clinton/Greenspan Administration when these Securites were made legal. I mean it's basically a side bet on the housing or commercial R.E markets. They were making sooooo much money in 2003-2006 that they increased their exposure dramatically. When the housing market busted, not only were the banks losing tons of money on the lost money from mortgages, but then they got destroyed on these mortgage backed securities. Now there are NO BUYERS. NO one wants to step in and buy these toxic assets, that's where the government/treasury are having problems with fixing the banking system. They don't know how to price these TOXIC ASSETS. Fair market value is about 5-10 cents on the dollar. If the Treasury/government steps in and pays these ridiculously low prices, then it could cause another WAVE of Systemic CHAOS. If they pay too much, then the Taxpayer is on the hook. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aoc1E2sKjADk I want you guyz to read this link. Basically, Richard Bernstein, one of Bank of America's top financial gurus, who btw has been accurate over the last year, made a statement, WHILE HIS BOSS KEN LEWIS was in Washington, the same day they were getting grilled in Capitol Hill regarding what these banks were doing with the money, recommended for investors to stay away from investing in Banks. I couldnt believe it when I read it. It's really telling in my view. I just believe that the government is changing the rules almost every day, and the market has no clarity. No one wants to invest because the rules are changing on a day by day basis. These decisions are so huge. I know the word Million, Billion and Trillion all sound a like, but there is a huge difference between each one of these, and when decisions in the Hundreds of Billions and trillions are being made, THINGS CHANGE!! I believe that many banks in about 6 months will have to be in "temporary receivership" a friendly way of saying Nationalization. I believe the gov. doesn't want to do it now, and that their game plan will be to try to capitilize these banks HOPING that they will lend. These banks will end up becoming "zombie" banks, just like the Japanese. This plan is proven to not work, and yet we are adopting it. THEY ARE WRONG!!! these banks are in survival mode, they are hemoraging money, losing thousands per second. They won't lend until home prices stop falling, job employment starts improving and the general economy shows any inclination that it is improving. Eventually the gov. will get fed up and grow impatient and start Nationalizing some of the banks, Chop them up and sell their assets to the stronger Regional Banks. This idea of Consolidating the big banks is a terrible Idea. I don't know what they were thinking. I guess they thought if you combine One bad bank with another big bad bank, that two bad banks make a good bank. I got news for you, two big bad banks, makes ONE REALLY BIG BAD BANK. Any one who thinks that we will rebound and have a sustained rally in the Stock Market is fooling themselves. I'm not saying there won't be a 2 thousand point rally. Their maybe. But it will be a false rally. This will be an L shaped recovery, not a V . One last example Japan 1990 Housing Boom NIKKEI 38,000 Irrational exuberance Housing Bust Banks went under Gov. capitalized Banks Banks became "zombie" banks They never lent freely again 2009 Nikkei 7000 TWO LOST DECADES.
IDBillzFan Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 It's only money. Maybe it's me, but the only people I've ever heard use this phrase are people who don't ever have any money.
ExiledInIllinois Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 Maybe it's me, but the only people I've ever heard use this phrase are people who don't ever have any money. True. Like my old man used to say: "Easiest thing in the world to make: Money and love." Now why do some have a hard time with the money part?
plenzmd1 Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 I am still sitting on it pulling down 5% annual in a cash fund. I am now not trying to "time" the low as the chances of that are small. Dude tell me where you are getting this. I would love to be getting 5% . I know some money market funds went below $1.00 in the fall, so I would LOVE LOVE LOVE to be getting 5% now with no risk. Thx for the help in advance
tennesseeboy Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 Maybe it's me, but the only people I've ever heard use this phrase are people who don't ever have any money. it's you, skippy!
ExiledInIllinois Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 That's not what he's saying. That's not how the market works. Learn how is works before you call it a con game. Don't assume that this means I agree with VA because I don't. Are people not pulling out when "experts" are saying "stay in"? It is a con game, of course they want everybody to keep their retirement money in there... Isn't that part of the reason why the market was so inflated to begin with? One of the first times in history that almost everybody had something in the market. Now the bleeding and people are getting out. I don't blame them... Cover your ass and stop the bleeding... How much should people be bled? This isn't a perfect world Chef where an "expert" can say don't worry and everybody will listen and say: "Thank sir, may I have another." Of course you want me to throw my money in there. There is no honor in staying with this sinking ship... And I think people finally are realizing this. Cut your loses and let the "correction" take place.
Stussy109 Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 I'm 1/3 cash, 1/3 stocks, 1/3 platinum/gold with stocks i am not buying and holding, i am short-term trading.
BillsFanNC Posted March 2, 2009 Posted March 2, 2009 "Buy and Hold" is simply a phrase or idea that people who have not put any thought into investing hang on to. I beg to differ. I have put an enormous amount of time into researching what investment strategy works best for me. Buy and hold index fund investing is boring for sure, and I'll never be able to brag about beating the market on a year to year basis. But market timers have deluded themselves into thinking they are smarter than the average investor. They aren't. Over the long run the market will prove to be 'smarter' than you. One of my favorite quotes from Dr. William Berstein: "There are two kinds of investors, be thay large or small: those who don't know where the market is headed, and those who don't know that they don't know."
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