An analyzed draft plan

[Thoner7]

Thinking to myself that teams must have a plan for the draft and not just go into it with a “we will see who’s there” mentality, I started to develop a strategy for the Bills. Uniquely, I looked at it in reverse, from round 3 up to round 1.

 

This year I feel there are 5-6 good centers who I would like to see us grab, Mack, Unger, Wood, Luigs, Caldwell, and maybe Shipley. On the safe side say there are 5 centers available. That means that when the Bills pick in the 3rd (pick #75), a center must be drafted once in every 15 picks on average for all the quality prospects to be off the board –very unlikely according to history, here is the last five years. The year corresponds to that draft; the first number is the total number of centers taken in that draft, the second is the number of centers taken before pick 42 - our 2nd round pick, the third is the number of centers taken before the 75th pick - our third.

’04 – 9 – 0 - 1

’05 – 8 - 2 - 2

’06 – 9 – 1 - 3

’07 – 6 - 0 - 2

’08 – 6 – 0 - 1

 

I did the same for the TEs as well. I see 4 quality starters in this draft, Pettigrew, Cook, Nelson, and Coffman. For all 4 to be gone before our 2nd round pick, one player would have to be drafted in every 10- again not likely. Here is the history, the numbers are aligned the same as before.

’04 - 16 - 3 – 5

’05 - 9 - 1 - 2

’06 - 16 - 2 - 6

’07 - 13 - 2 - 2

’08 - 15 - 2 - 4

 

So if you take the general pattern at how players at certain positions are taken, and factor in the skill of this draft class, I would expect 2-3 TEs drafted before pick 42 – leaving the Bills to take the 4th on the list – likely Nelson or Coffman because of injury. I then predict there to have been 2-3 centers drafted before pick 75, likely leaving Wood/Caldwell, Luigs, and Shipley on the board.

 

That takes us to round 1. Being able to count on filling the TE and C needs in 2/3, the Bills are left with DL/LB as the two main needs left. In this situation they can simply take the BPA at either those positions or another if they see fit. I think one of these guys are likely to fall to 11 - Brown, Orakpo, Maybin, Cushing, Maleuga, and in wishful thinking Raji and Curry. If they do not, I am confident enough that rounds 2/3 will go well, and would be ok with the Bills reaching for a pass rush. Guys like Barwin or Johnson are bigger risks at 11 but have high ceilings. I gotta throw in a plug for Nic Harris in round 4- hopefully there and he coverts to LB.

 

I feel this is a very realistic plan for the Bills to pursue. I know most of you on here would be thrilled if the Bills came out of the draft with Brown, Coffman, Wood/Caldwell. You are welcome Russ.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Good effort there Thoner.

 

I would think that teams are pretty systematized and not haphazard about the draft in this day and age.

 

But then again you'd think they'd be the same way about clock management and the usage of time outs.

[Lt. Dan's Revenge]

Thinking to myself that teams must have a plan for the draft and not just go into it with a “we will see who’s there” mentality, I started to develop a strategy for the Bills. Uniquely, I looked at it in reverse, from round 3 up to round 1.

 

This year I feel there are 5-6 good centers who I would like to see us grab, Mack, Unger, Wood, Luigs, Caldwell, and maybe Shipley. On the safe side say there are 5 centers available. That means that when the Bills pick in the 3rd (pick #75), a center must be drafted once in every 15 picks on average for all the quality prospects to be off the board –very unlikely according to history, here is the last five years. The year corresponds to that draft; the first number is the total number of centers taken in that draft, the second is the number of centers taken before pick 42 - our 2nd round pick, the third is the number of centers taken before the 75th pick - our third.

’04 – 9 – 0 - 1

’05 – 8 - 2 - 2

’06 – 9 – 1 - 3

’07 – 6 - 0 - 2

’08 – 6 – 0 - 1

 

I did the same for the TEs as well. I see 4 quality starters in this draft, Pettigrew, Cook, Nelson, and Coffman. For all 4 to be gone before our 2nd round pick, one player would have to be drafted in every 10- again not likely. Here is the history, the numbers are aligned the same as before.

’04 - 16 - 3 – 5

’05 - 9 - 1 - 2

’06 - 16 - 2 - 6

’07 - 13 - 2 - 2

’08 - 15 - 2 - 4

 

So if you take the general pattern at how players at certain positions are taken, and factor in the skill of this draft class, I would expect 2-3 TEs drafted before pick 42 – leaving the Bills to take the 4th on the list – likely Nelson or Coffman because of injury. I then predict there to have been 2-3 centers drafted before pick 75, likely leaving Wood/Caldwell, Luigs, and Shipley on the board.

 

That takes us to round 1. Being able to count on filling the TE and C needs in 2/3, the Bills are left with DL/LB as the two main needs left. In this situation they can simply take the BPA at either those positions or another if they see fit. I think one of these guys are likely to fall to 11 - Brown, Orakpo, Maybin, Cushing, Maleuga, and in wishful thinking Raji and Curry. If they do not, I am confident enough that rounds 2/3 will go well, and would be ok with the Bills reaching for a pass rush. Guys like Barwin or Johnson are bigger risks at 11 but have high ceilings. I gotta throw in a plug for Nic Harris in round 4- hopefully there and he coverts to LB.

 

I feel this is a very realistic plan for the Bills to pursue. I know most of you on here would be thrilled if the Bills came out of the draft with Brown, Coffman, Wood/Caldwell. You are welcome Russ.

 

Good anaysis. I think what this doesn't account for, however, is the fact that this year there seems to be many more quality centers and tight ends that are actually worthy of being drafted in the first 2-3 rounds than in years past. Point being, that in past years teams have not drafted tight ends and centers at those types of intervals because there was simply not enough of them worthy of being drafted on day one or early on day two. This year seems to be different in that regard, with more centers and tight ends that seem to have a good shot at helping a team right away than in the past. That is why it will be tough for those trends to hold water IMO.

[Thoner7]

Good anaysis. I think what this doesn't account for, however, is the fact that this year there seems to be many more quality centers and tight ends that are actually worthy of being drafted in the first 2-3 rounds than in years past. Point being, that in past years teams have not drafted tight ends and centers at those types of intervals because there was simply not enough of them worthy of being drafted on day one or early on day two. This year seems to be different in that regard, with more centers and tight ends that seem to have a good shot at helping a team right away than in the past. That is why it will be tough for those trends to hold water IMO.

 

I did try to put some emphasis on the skill of the players, but not too much. Most teams traditionally will pass on a position that is deep for one that is not if they are forced to choose. The 2006 draft for example was pretty deep at TE. Vernon Davis, Marcedes Lewis, Joe Klopfenstein, Anthony Fasano, Tony Scheffler, Leonard Pope, David Thomas, Dominique Byrd, and Owen Daniels. I dont recognize a few of those names, but only two, Vernon Davis and Marcedes Lewis, were taken before pick 42. 4 were taken between 42 and 75. This years class seems to have more players being high round two guys than late round two, but from what I saw with the trends it seems that one should defiantly be there. I will pay attention to how the draft pans out and how my predictions hold up.