Why haven't we tagged Greer?

[BillsVet]

I've been a big proponent on this message board on wanting to retain Greer.

 

But come on

 

$10 Million a year?

 

Let's not confuse taking a good risk with making a really dumb decision. If we were a contender and we were lean at the db position, then maybe but I mean maybe would consider paying him that sort of cash.

For $10 Million a year we could get a top tier player.

 

Let's not get carried away, Greer is a fine db, but we have 2 other db's that are either better or will be better very soon in McKelvin and Mcgee and we have two others that could turn out to be as good in Corner and Yobouty.

 

The only way I see the Bills taging him is if they had a strong feeling that some team would offer to trade for him.

 

I'm not talking about keeping him. I think I've been quite clear and in the thread about Kelvin Hayden that the idea is:

 

TAG AND THEN TRADE HIM.

 

There are multiple teams in need of a solid cover CB with plenty of cap room. Teams like KC, TB, MIA, DET, and SF have room to use for a CB and 25M+ to spend. After today, there are three fewer options in UFA this year now that Dunta Robinson, Nnamdi Asomugha, and Dunta Robinson are unavailable. The Giants also placed a 2nd round tender on one of their CB's today.

 

Every year the board underestimates how much players get in UFA. We may think collectively that 9.9M is too much for Greer, and it is. But the market, not fan opinion, dictates how much is spent on these guys. No one ever thought Nate Clements would get the deal he did. No one thought Bob Sanders would get the contract he did. Or Adalius Thomas. And no one around here saw the Bills signing about the 4th best guard in UFA for 49M over 7 years.

 

Be prepared to be surprised when Greer signs a deal somewhere around 35-40M over 5-6 years after 2/27. Tagging and trading won't be that bad of an idea after he moves on to greener pastures.

[BADOLBILZ]

Another problem could be that Greer could demand 10 million per season and 25 million guaranteed in a trade. If no team bites on the contract demands, we're stuck with him at 9.8 million for next season.

 

And rather than overpay a good player like Greer $9.8M for one season, they will go out and sign 7 guys who can't play at all to the tune of about $20M cash to the cap only to cut them all before they reach season 2 in Buffalo. This team doesn't know the value of a cap dollar, and fortunately for them, most of their fans don't either. Nobody steps over a dollar to save a dime like the Buffalo Bills.

[The Dean]

offer him a decent multi year contract, with lots of guaranteed money for around $5 Million a year and see if he bites. If he doesn't accept then we move on with out him.

 

 

Exactly. I might even make it a little bit higher than $5 mil, but that's the approach I would take, too. He will get far more in FA, if he decides to go that route.

[silvermike]

I think that this board heavily overvalues Jabari Greer, who's a good enough cornerback, but hardly more than a decent starter. There's not some huge buzz around the league: Outside of Buffalo based sources, you get quotes like these:

 

"After Asomugha and Robinson, the talent level drops off to players like Jabari Greer (Buffalo), Bryant McFadden (Pittsburgh), and Phillip Buchanon..." (Cleveland Examiner)

 

The Sporting News ranks him as the 47th best player in free agency, well behind even Angelo Crowell, and ESPN has him as only the 7th best CB in free agency. Nobody's going to offer anything of value AND sign him to a mega-deal if had the franchise tag.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Exactly. I might even make it a little bit higher than $5 mil, but that's the approach I would take, too. He will get far more in FA, if he decides to go that route.

He's actually said he'd take a hometown discount and I'd be pleased if they worked out a multi-year deal. That would be the best option of all those we've discussed.

 

However, regardless of what the Bills' budget actually is, the question remains the same:

 

Do we want to pay Jabari Greer $5 million per, or would we rather pay that money to someone else (probably at a different position)?

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I think that this board heavily overvalues Jabari Greer, who's a good enough cornerback, but hardly more than a decent starter. There's not some huge buzz around the league: Outside of Buffalo based sources, you get quotes like these:

 

"After Asomugha and Robinson, the talent level drops off to players like Jabari Greer (Buffalo), Bryant McFadden (Pittsburgh), and Phillip Buchanon..." (Cleveland Examiner)

 

The Sporting News ranks him as the 47th best player in free agency, well behind even Angelo Crowell, and ESPN has him as only the 7th best CB in free agency. Nobody's going to offer anything of value AND sign him to a mega-deal if had the franchise tag.

Well Mike,

 

If you think he's overvalued (and I'm not arguing with you here) what do you think he's worth per season regardless of where he ends up? Are you saying he's overvalued at $10 mil or $5 mil? Or do you think he's worth less than that?

[silvermike]

Well Mike,

 

If you think he's overvalued (and I'm not arguing with you here) what do you think he's worth per season regardless of where he ends up? Are you saying he's overvalued at $10 mil or $5 mil? Or do you think he's worth less than that?

 

Well, I'd say $10M isn't worth it - the average of the top five CBs? He's not one of the top 5 CBs in the division, and he's not one of the top 5 available CBs in free agency. $5M sounds about right to me - McGee is at $4.5M/season, and I think the players are roughly comparable, especially once you factor in some inflation from 2005.

 

Scout.com has him rated at three stars - last year, comparable players went for between $3M and $4M. So again, that sounds like a raise to about $5M - maybe less. That's half the cost of the franchise tag, and I think any team would have to be very desperate to send the Bills anything and double the salary of the guy from his 'market' price.

 

Now I could be totally wrong here - Hayden signed for $8M/season without being rated higher than Greer. So it's a bit of a crapshoot. That said, I think the Colts heavily overvalued him and if this means they'll lose Saturday, they've made a mistake.

[The Dean]

Do we want to pay Jabari Greer $5 million per, or would we rather pay that money to someone else (probably at a different position)?

 

 

At $5 mli/year, I don't think the Bills need to make that kind of choice, as it is very affordable. They can give Greer 5 mil and still do whatever they plan to do otherwise, IMO.

[DazedandConfused]

Well Mike,

 

If you think he's overvalued (and I'm not arguing with you here) what do you think he's worth per season regardless of where he ends up? Are you saying he's overvalued at $10 mil or $5 mil? Or do you think he's worth less than that?

The mistake some seem to be making though is that there is an assumption here that a player has one single value which is defined by his level of play where his "worth" in this market (what teams are willing to pay) is different to different teams.

 

It makes little difference what anyone's individual assessment of Greer's value is if he is not worth a commitment of resources by a team a team of a transition competitive contract AND the worth of the player traded to the Bills in some tag and trade scheme.

 

Even if some team judges Greer's static value to be worthy of a transition level contract (a highly questionable issue for a player who suffered a major injury last season and this is before you even get to an assessment of his play) you have to add to that cost the value/worth of the player given up in a trade to get Greer in some tag and trade deal.

 

There simply seems to be no way that Greer will be judged by anyone as worth a major contact AND worth the additional cost of some player traded for him AND worth the risk that this commitment of cash brings with him.

 

Worth and value are simply two different things. Who is worth more Donald Trump or Mother Teresa (if she were alive). Most would say that the answer about their financial worth is clear. Who do you value more Donald Trump or Mother Teresa?

 

Again the answer is clear to most but the results of the answers are totally different.

[Ramius]

I'm not talking about keeping him. I think I've been quite clear and in the thread about Kelvin Hayden that the idea is:

 

TAG AND THEN TRADE HIM.

 

There are multiple teams in need of a solid cover CB with plenty of cap room. Teams like KC, TB, MIA, DET, and SF have room to use for a CB and 25M+ to spend. After today, there are three fewer options in UFA this year now that Dunta Robinson, Nnamdi Asomugha, and Dunta Robinson are unavailable. The Giants also placed a 2nd round tender on one of their CB's today.

 

Apparently tagging and trading is like trading down in the draft. Close your eyes, turn around 3 times, click your heels, and all of a sudden you have a high pick for your franchised player who isn't really worth the tag. Nevermind that you need a trade partner, someone that the player wants to go to, somewhere they can agree on an acceptable long term extension, and someone that is willing to part with picks or players to acquire and pay such player.

 

And as for Dockery, that argument holds no water. Dockery was a RFA, not a UFA, so he wasn't going to hit the market anyway. I don't see what that has anything to do with the current crop of UFA CBs.

[Ramius]

And rather than overpay a good player like Greer $9.8M for one season, they will go out and sign 7 guys who can't play at all to the tune of about $20M cash to the cap only to cut them all before they reach season 2 in Buffalo. This team doesn't know the value of a cap dollar, and fortunately for them, most of their fans don't either. Nobody steps over a dollar to save a dime like the Buffalo Bills.

 

Ahhh yes, let's play the assumption game, that any player we sign is automatically going to suck. Are we headed to the super bowl next year? Is Jabari greer that one piece that is going to push us over the top? If the answer was yes, then franchise him. But that answer is a big emphatic no. I'm all for keeping greer around with a long term deal. There's nothing wrong with that. But keeping him for 1 year at 10 million and then facing the same situation next year not a reasonable choice when this team has much bigger holes to fill.

[The Dean]

Ahhh yes, let's play the assumption game, that any player we sign is automatically going to suck. Are we headed to the super bowl next year? Is Jabari greer that one piece that is going to push us over the top? If the answer was yes, then franchise him. But that answer is a big emphatic no. I'm all for keeping greer around with a long term deal. There's nothing wrong with that. But keeping him for 1 year at 10 million and then facing the same situation next year not a reasonable choice when this team has much bigger holes to fill.

 

 

While I agree that it is folly to simply assume the guys the Bills will sign with the money they might have spent on Greer will suck, BADO makes a good point. There is something to paying guys that perform for the team...and perhaps overpaying a known positive entity. They have made that mistake in the past with Pat Williams, London Fletcher and, IMO, Winfield.

 

I think the difference here, is the the Bills have done a good job at finding quality defensive backs, and can afford the loss of Greer...IF they take the money and spend it on a quality DE or DT. I think if they dan get Greer at a "reasonable" price, they can actually afford Greer AND the DT or DE.

[The Tomcat]

Someone's going to sign him to a fairly large deal. I would think if we franchised him at 10, someone would give a 3rd or 4th for him and sign him to 6-7 mill year contract. The money out there is ridiculous.....hell even if we get a 5th,6th or 7th rounder its better then nothing.

 

offer 5 yrs 25 with 10 guaranteed.

 

Its that easy you know!

[BillsVet]

Apparently tagging and trading is like trading down in the draft. Close your eyes, turn around 3 times, click your heels, and all of a sudden you have a high pick for your franchised player who isn't really worth the tag. Nevermind that you need a trade partner, someone that the player wants to go to, somewhere they can agree on an acceptable long term extension, and someone that is willing to part with picks or players to acquire and pay such player.

 

And as for Dockery, that argument holds no water. Dockery was a RFA, not a UFA, so he wasn't going to hit the market anyway. I don't see what that has anything to do with the current crop of UFA CBs.

 

You can't see the forest for the trees. There are teams which will make an offer to Greer that will be lampooned by many of us here, especially with 14 clubs having 20M or more in cap room. If they're willing to pay him Kelvin Hayden type money, which I firmly believe they will, then they would give up a 3rd rounder for a guy who is one of the few decent CB's hitting the open market. As many have said before, it's supply and demand.

 

There will be a trade partner, especially with all those bad teams with new coaches looking to improve quickly. Don't understimate that coaches need job security, and over-spending on proven talent like Greer will happen. If I'm a guy cognizant of needing to improve a lot real fast and have cap room, you'd give a third for a guy like Greer.

 

Besides, the player has no say in who he's traded to, unless there's a clause in his contract. That's not evident here, and Greer would go where Buffalo sends him.

 

Dockery would have had a decent offer had he been tendered at anything less than a second rounder. He'd been a UDFA, which means had someone signed him to an offer sheet, the Giants would receive no compensation (EDIT: If they didn't match the offer sheet).

[billsfreak]

we have to sign peters and must get a center in free agency even if we have to over pay because the Dolphins also are targeting Jason brown. IMO we have to sign either Brown or Birk in free agency no matter what the cost. then we could address OLB,TE and SS in free agency depending on who is available and who the bills have an interest in.

 

today on Sirius they interviewed either the new coach of the lions or the coach from the Texans i missed the intro. schein asked him a question about their LT situation and his answer was very interesting especially for all the idiots who want to trade peters.

 

here was his answer. he said do you ever see a great LT hit free agency answer no. he said the reason for that is because its so hard to find a great LT. he stated you ask any offensive coordinator or head coach in the league what the 2 most important players were on offense were and he said every single one of them would say #1 QB #2 LT. he then stated that you will never see a team let a great LT hit free agency simply because they are to valuable and very hard to find.

 

so to all the people who even suggest we trade our underpaid multiple pro bowl 26 year old LT here's a perfect example h why you are all out of your minds and clueless.

Just to clarify, we don't "have to" sign Jason Peters, he is already under contract for a few more years.

[billsfreak]

I think that this board heavily overvalues Jabari Greer, who's a good enough cornerback, but hardly more than a decent starter. There's not some huge buzz around the league: Outside of Buffalo based sources, you get quotes like these:

 

"After Asomugha and Robinson, the talent level drops off to players like Jabari Greer (Buffalo), Bryant McFadden (Pittsburgh), and Phillip Buchanon..." (Cleveland Examiner)

 

The Sporting News ranks him as the 47th best player in free agency, well behind even Angelo Crowell, and ESPN has him as only the 7th best CB in free agency. Nobody's going to offer anything of value AND sign him to a mega-deal if had the franchise tag.

Your assessment is right on. I concur 100%. He is a "good" corner, but no one is going to pay him like a "great" corner.

[billsfreak]

Someone's going to sign him to a fairly large deal. I would think if we franchised him at 10, someone would give a 3rd or 4th for him and sign him to 6-7 mill year contract. The money out there is ridiculous.....hell even if we get a 5th,6th or 7th rounder its better then nothing.

 

offer 5 yrs 25 with 10 guaranteed.

 

Its that easy you know!

Nobody is going to give him 6-7 million a year after what? 7-10 decent games in his career. Especially when they can get an experienced and much better corner for 1-2 million more per year.

[Ramius]

While I agree that it is folly to simply assume the guys the Bills will sign with the money they might have spent on Greer will suck, BADO makes a good point. There is something to paying guys that perform for the team...and perhaps overpaying a known positive entity. They have made that mistake in the past with Pat Williams, London Fletcher and, IMO, Winfield.

 

I think the difference here, is the the Bills have done a good job at finding quality defensive backs, and can afford the loss of Greer...IF they take the money and spend it on a quality DE or DT. I think if they dan get Greer at a "reasonable" price, they can actually afford Greer AND the DT or DE.

 

Understand Deano, i wish the Bills would keep greer. I had hoped they would re-sign him (but didn't expect them to). If they franchise greer with the intention of buying more time to sign him to a long term deal, i'm fine with that. However, it would be very unwise to franchise greer with the sole intention of trading him.

[The Tomcat]

Nobody is going to give him 6-7 million a year after what? 7-10 decent games in his career. Especially when they can get an experienced and much better corner for 1-2 million more per year.

 

We will agree to disagree on that point....we shall see......

 

Just read this from Chris Browns Blog...not gospel but...

 

Colts Hayden signing means big $$ for Greer

By Chris Brown - Posted February 19th, 2009

With the Colts re-signing impending free agent CB Kelvin Hayden to a deal that averages more than $8M per season, things are looking awfully good for Bills free agent to be Jabari Greer.

 

NFL Network’s Adam Schefter is reporting it to be a 5-year deal worth $43.5M with a huge $22.5M guaranteed. Prior to the offseason the Giants signed CB Corey Webster to a similar deal (5-$43.5M-$20M guaranteed).

 

Just looking at the career stats of all three players they’re comparable. Hayden (27 starts, 6 INTs), Greer (26 starts, 4 INTs), Webster (31 starts, 5 INTs).

 

Much like I indicated after the Webster signing in December, Greer could very well be looking at close to $8M per season.

[Ramius]

You can't see the forest for the trees. There are teams which will make an offer to Greer that will be lampooned by many of us here, especially with 14 clubs having 20M or more in cap room. If they're willing to pay him Kelvin Hayden type money, which I firmly believe they will, then they would give up a 3rd rounder for a guy who is one of the few decent CB's hitting the open market. As many have said before, it's supply and demand.

 

There will be a trade partner, especially with all those bad teams with new coaches looking to improve quickly. Don't understimate that coaches need job security, and over-spending on proven talent like Greer will happen. If I'm a guy cognizant of needing to improve a lot real fast and have cap room, you'd give a third for a guy like Greer.

 

Besides, the player has no say in who he's traded to, unless there's a clause in his contract. That's not evident here, and Greer would go where Buffalo sends him.

 

Dockery would have had a decent offer had he been tendered at anything less than a second rounder. He'd been a UDFA, which means had someone signed him to an offer sheet, the Giants would receive no compensation (EDIT: If they didn't match the offer sheet).

 

Ok course greer has a say where he is going to be traded to. No team is going to trade for a franchised player without renegotiating a long term deal. A franchised player can make outrageous demands, or simply refuse to negotiate with the trade partner, and the deal is dead in the water.