2005 Election Predictions Please

[Rich in Ohio]

I spent the weekend giving this election a great deal of thought. I came up with what I thought will be the winner and the electoral college count. I have listed this below, and I welcome everyone to list their own predictions before the election on Tuesday, and then we can see exactly who got it right.

 

All I ask, is keep the editorial nonsense out of this thread. I would like to see just what people think the results will be, I am not interested in all of the clutter. It will only ruin this thread. We can add that after the election.

 

Please respect that !

 

Ok, so here is my prediction, please give your results to the same items so we can compare:

 

 

1) Winner : GWB

 

2) Percentage of the popular vote: GWB 50.3%

Kerry 48.1%

Other 0.6%

 

3) Electoral College Count: GWB 280

Kerry 258

 

4) Key Battleground State Winners:

 

Ohio : Kerry

PA : Kerry

WI : GWB

Mich : Kerry

Fla : GWB

Iowa : GWB

 

Please don’t ask about other battleground states, these are the ones that I thought were the six most contested. I know that there were more but please just stick to these.

[/dev/null]

Popular Vote:

Bush 49%

Kerry 47%

 

Electoral Vote:

Bush wins 30 states

AL(9), AK(3), AR(6), AZ(10), CO(9), FL(27), GA(15), IN(11), ID(4), KS(6), KY(8), LA(9), MO(11), MS(6), MT(3), NC(15), ND(3), NE(5), NM(5), NV(5), OH(20), OK(7), SC(8), SD(3), TN(11), TX(34), UT(5), VA(13), WV(5), WY(3)

 

Kerry wins 20 states and DC

CA(55), CT(7), DC(3), DE(3), HI(4), IA(7), IL(21), MA(12), MD(10), ME(4), MI(17), MN(10), NH(4), NJ(15), NY(31), OR(7), PA(21), RI(4), VT(3), WA(11), WI(10)

 

279-259 Bush

 

I would like to point out that a swing of OH (20) to Kerry and WI (10) to Bush would result in a 269-269 tie

 

I don't think there will be any Florida-style disasters or 'too close to call' scenarios. the states will have enough margin of victory either way that the ambulance chasers looking for billable hours won't have much to do

[KRC]

I don't think there will be any Florida-style disasters or 'too close to call' scenarios.  the states will have enough margin of victory either way that the ambulance chasers looking for billable hours won't have much to do

94362[/snapback]

 

I think the court cases will be filed, regardless of whether it is "too close to call" or not. Court cases have already been filed, and the votes have not been counted yet.

[KD in CA]

I think the court cases will be filed, regardless of whether it is "too close to call" or not. Court cases have already been filed, and the votes have not been counted yet.

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That's absurd. Any case that has been filed in advance of the fact should be automatically thrown out and not allowed to be refiled.

[KRC]

That's absurd.  Any case that has been filed in advance of the fact should be automatically thrown out and not allowed to be refiled.

94419[/snapback]

 

As far as I know, the bulk of the cases are claiming that early/absentee voters are being disenfranchised.

[bobblehead]

Kerry will win Florida and Ohio, thus the election. Too many roadbumps thrown at Bush lately. OBL was not the october suprise in of itself, but the reaction to it. I was sure that Bush would benefit from it, but it appears not to be so.

[Guest RabidBillsFanVT]

Popular Vote: (A REVERSAL of 2000... seems to make sense)

Bush 49.5%

Kerry 48.5%

 

Electoral Vote:

Bush wins 32 states

AL(9), AK(3), AR(6), AZ(10), CO(9), GA(15), IA(7), IN(11), ID(4), KS(6), KY(8), LA(9), MO(11), MS(6), MT(3), NC(15), ND(3), NE(5), NH(4), NM(5), NV(5), OK(7), SC(8), SD(3), TN(11), TX(34), UT(5), VA(13), WI(10), WV(5), WY(3)

 

Kerry wins 18 states and DC

CA(55), CT(7), DC(3), DE(3), FL(27), HI(4), IL(21), MA(12), MD(10), ME(4), MI(17), MN(10), NJ(15), NY(31), OH(20), OR(7), PA(21), RI(4), VT(3), WA(11)

 

285-253 Kerry in one of the LEAST number of states needed to win scenario in political history. EVEN WITH Bush getting all 9 CO electors.

 

Kerry will lose the toss-ups in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Iowa. His strengths in Ohio (jobs) and Florida(disenchantment/anger) will put him over the top.

 

DO NOT FORGET about the Colorado vote.. the electorate will be split if passed!!

 

Now this scenario makes sense...

[PastaJoe]

Popular Vote:

Kerry 50.5%

Bush 48%

Other 1.5%

 

Electoral Vote:

Bush wins 30 states

AL(9), AK(3), AR(6), AZ(10), GA(15), IA(7), IN(11), ID(4), KS(6), KY(8), LA(9), MO(11), MS(6), MT(3), NC(15), ND(3), NE(5), NM(5), NV(5), OK(7), SC(8), SD(3), TN(11), TX(34), UT(5), VA(13), WI(10), WV(5), WY(3)

 

Kerry wins 20 states and DC

CA(55), CO(9), CT(7), DC(3), DE(3), FL(27), HI(4), IL(21), MA(12), MD(10), ME(4), MI(17), MN(10), NJ(15), NH(4), NY(31), OH(20), OR(7), PA(21), RI(4), VT(3), WA(11)

 

298-240 Kerry

 

I think there is a large number of first time voters that are underrepresented in the polls, with the majority of them voting for Kerry.

[SD Jarhead]

Bush wins (prayerfully) ...don't ask for the state by state breakdown, because I don't know.

 

Dim's immediately file blitz of lawsuits to further weaken our Democratic Republic. Bush eventually named winner, but the damage to our nation has been done.

 

OR:

 

Kerry wins through voter fraud. Hopefully, Republicans DO NOT file lawsuits to challenge, but lick their wounds and deal with it and draft legislation to prevent voter fraud in further elections.

 

Either way, the political parties continue to erode the faith of the American people through their validation of unethical and illegeal actions to retain or grasp the reins of power in our nation. In the meantime, the rest of the world laughs and continues to plot backroom deals and plots to ensure our destruction.

 

Rome contunues to burn...

[JimBob2232]

Popular Vote:

Bush 49.2%

Kerry 47.9%

Nader 1.0%

Other 1.9 % (Outragous prediction, Badnarik gets more votes than nader)

 

Electoral Vote:

Bush wins 30 states

AL(9), AK(3), AR(6), AZ(10), GA(15), WV(5), WY(3), TX(34), UT(5), VA(13), NV(5), OK(7), SC(8), SD(3), TN(11), IN(11) ID(4), KS(6), KY(8), LA(9), MO(11), MS(6), MT(3), NC(15), ND(3), NE(5), NM(5), FL(27), OH(20), CO(9), IA(7)

 

Kerry wins 20 states and DC

DC(3), DE(3), OR(7), PA(21), RI(4), VT(3), WA(11), IL(21), MA(12), MD(10), ME(4), CA(55), CT(7), NJ(15), NH(4), NY(31), HI(4), MI(17), MN(10), WI(10),

 

 

286-252 Bush

[Chalkie Gerzowski]

Electoral Vote:

 

Bush:

 

AL(9), AK(3), AR(6), AZ(10), GA(15), WV(5), WY(3), TX(34), UT(5), VA(13), NV(5), OK(7), SC(8), SD(3), TN(11), IN(11) ID(4), KS(6), KY(8), LA(9), MO(11), MS(6), MT(3), NC(15), ND(3), NE(5), NM(5), FL(27), OH(20), CO(9), IA(7), MN(10), HI(4), NH(4), PA(21)

 

 

 

Kerry:

 

DC(3), DE(3), OR(7), RI(4), VT(3), WA(11), IL(21), MA(12), MD(10), ME(4), CA(55), CT(7), NJ(15), NY(31), MI(17), WI(10)

 

 

Bush: 325 Kerry: 213

[bobblehead]

Kerry will win Florida and Ohio, thus the election.  Too many roadbumps thrown at Bush lately.  OBL was not the october suprise in of itself, but the reaction to it.  I was sure that Bush would benefit from it, but it appears not to be so.

94488[/snapback]

 

 

Oops.. sorry, wrong format. Here:

 

Winner : Kerry

 

2) Percentage of the popular vote:

 

GWB 48.4%

Kerry 51.0%

Other 0.6%

 

Electoral Vote:

 

Bush wins 30 states

AL(9), AK(3), AR(6), AZ(10), CO(9), GA(15), HI(4)IN(11), ID(4), KS(6), KY(8), LA(9), MO(11), MS(6), MT(3), NC(15), ND(3), NE(5), NM(5), NV(5), OK(7), PA (21)SC(8), SD(3), TN(11), TX(34), UT(5), VA(13), WV(5), WY(3)

 

Kerry wins 20 states and DC

CA(55), CT(7), DC(3), DE(3), FL (27), IA(7), IL(21), MA(12), MD(10), ME(4), MI(17), MN(10), NH(4), NJ(15), NY(31), OH (20),OR(7), , RI(4), VT(3), WA(11), WI(10)

 

281-257 Kerry

 

4) Key Battleground State Winners:

 

Ohio : Kerry

PA : Bush

WI : Kerry

Mich : Kerry

Fla : Kerry

Iowa : Kerry

 

Big reason= Kerry seems to be getting the late swing, even if it is tiny.

 

I hope my math is right.

[chicot]

Kerry - 52%, Bush - 47%. Kerry wins Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and that should do it. Turnout will be high.

[Brandon]

Bush 51%

Kerry 47.5%

 

Bush 296 EVs

Kerry 242 EVs.

 

Bush retains all of his 2000 states except New Hampshire, while taking Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico from the Democrats.

[Dwight Drane]

Kerry 49.7%

Bush 49.6%

 

 

Bush 280

Kerry 258

 

Kerry will win Ohio and Pennsylvania.........Hawaii remembers Pearl Harbor and grabs Bush off of a popular Rep. Governor and NH goes to Kerry.

 

I personally think Kerry needs to keep HI and win Wisconsin or Iowa in order to upset, and that includes him already winning Ohio.

 

Rain baby Rain!!!!

[MichFan]

It's impossible to make heads or tails of the polls, so how does one from Ohio have any chance of accurately predicting what will happen in WI, MN, and IA let alone NM or HI? I'm going to base my prediction based on what I have seen being in one of the key swing states of the election.

 

Two weeks ago I had several recorded messages from annoying, nasal Kerry campaign workers. They told me Bush is bad, but nothing about Kerry other than he has a plan. Today I had a message from Arnold and W himself. Very positive messages. I then was called by a Republican volunteer who was very nice.

 

Both candidates and their supporting 527's have bought heavy time on the T.V. and radio. What I know of Kerry from these ads is nothing. Every Kerry/DNC/lib 527 ad I have seen running here is a Bush bashing piece. Bush's ads involve both Kerry hit pieces and positive ads that promote his record. In the end tonight, I see the same Bush bashing ad running every 15 minutes from Kerry. I see the touching RNC convention speech ad running from Bush.

 

Ohioans are weary of being a battleground state because of the relentless canvassing by both sides. The shift to Bush in the past week is simple to understand -- we've heard enough negativity, it's time to look ahead. Bush is the only candidate who is servicing this need with positive ads about who he is and where he wants to go with the next 4 years. Thus he is pulling ahead.

 

If this same trend is playing out across the other battleground states, it will be a good day for the Bush campaign. I think it is and therefore predict:

 

Bush wins

280EV

51% popular vote

[whynot]

Popular Vote: Kerry 49 Bush 48 Other 3

EV: Kerry 284 Bush 254

[Bill from NYC]

Winner: Kerry

3 reasons:

 

1) Great campaigning by Bin-Laden.

2) Wonderful spin by Dems of convincing young voters that Bush would reinstate the draft (not true, but a briliant move).

3) Bush making that move to take away overtime from workers, right before an election. Where were his campaign people to put a stop to this utter stupidity?

 

Sad indeed.

[EndZoneCrew]

Bills: 24

Jets: 14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

oh .........the election......I'll take Kerry by a slim margain (say North Dakota)

[BuffaloBorn1960]

Bush wins (prayerfully) ...don't ask for the state by state breakdown, because I don't know.

 

Dim's immediately file blitz of lawsuits to further weaken our Democratic Republic. Bush eventually named winner, but the damage to our nation has been done.

 

OR:

 

Kerry wins through voter fraud. Hopefully, Republicans DO NOT file lawsuits to challenge, but lick their wounds and deal with it and draft legislation to prevent voter fraud in further elections.

 

Either way, the political parties continue to erode the faith of the American people through their validation of unethical and illegeal actions to retain or grasp the reins of power in our nation. In the meantime, the rest of the world laughs and continues to plot backroom deals and plots to ensure our destruction.

 

Rome contunues to burn...

94596[/snapback]

Kerrys favorite lyrics...

 

Send Lawyers Guns and Money..

 

 

Bush's ...

 

God bless America....

 

 

just sums it up for me..