Trading Down?

[tennesseeboy]

Looking at the draft prognosticators everyone we pick at 11 seems to be a reach because of position (TE, DE, DT, OG, C) or talent in this years draft. The interesting and best of the players in the positions we want seem to be destined for the second half of the first round or later with a very strong second round and third round availability. Maybe trading down will be the best way to go in an attempt to get three or more for two picks?

[silvermike]

It takes two to tango: who would be on the board at #11 that would entice someone to give up their picks and move up?

[BillsFan74]

Looking at the draft prognosticators everyone we pick at 11 seems to be a reach because of position (TE, DE, DT, OG, C) or talent in this years draft. The interesting and best of the players in the positions we want seem to be destined for the second half of the first round or later with a very strong second round and third round availability. Maybe trading down will be the best way to go in an attempt to get three or more for two picks?

 

If we trade down we may get one more pick. After the combine the boards should come into focus and the prognosticators will change their tune to get us excited for the draft.

[Bill from NYC]

It takes two to tango: who would be on the board at #11 that would entice someone to give up their picks and move up?

 

Imo a team that wants one of these LTs or DEs.

[Beerball]

Imo a team that wants one of these LTs or DEs.

Yeah, difficult to say cause we don't know the board, but...I agree with Tenny. There will be several prime players at 11 if things fall the right way. It's early, but, Kiper fwhw has 3 tackles going in the top 10, but only 1 D-lineman/LB (Maybin). The Bills can look at this two ways. The safe thing to do is make the pick at 11. You'll be darn near assured of having your choice between several very good players. Or, you work out a deal to drop to 15-17 and cross your fingers.

[Brand J]

What is this "trade down" that you speak of? These Bills trade up for marginal talent that couldve been had at their original spots - Posluszny, McCargo. The best thing that you can do in the draft, is stand pat in rounds 1-3, because there is no such thing as "cant miss" prospects. In these last two drafts alone, with our multiple 3rd round picks, we shouldve came out with at least 8 players picked in rounds 1-3 rather than the 6 chosen. Instead, we ignored requests to trade down and instead traded up to draft marginal talent. THAT is why these Bills have not been to the playoffs in this millenium...

[Bill from NYC]

Yeah, difficult to say cause we don't know the board, but...I agree with Tenny. There will be several prime players at 11 if things fall the right way. It's early, but, Kiper fwhw has 3 tackles going in the top 10, but only 1 D-lineman/LB (Maybin). The Bills can look at this two ways. The safe thing to do is make the pick at 11. You'll be darn near assured of having your choice between several very good players. Or, you work out a deal to drop to 15-17 and cross your fingers.

 

True, but these guys are getting picked earlier all the time, or so it woild seem. It is worth noting that no less than 7 OTs went in round 1 last year, and after that none were taken until round 3. This tells me that teams place a ton of value on blockers, and know that they must grab them early.

This is part of what makes the "Trade Peters" threads so silly. You can't simply snap your fingers and replace Jason Peters, and many seem to be missing this.

 

In 2001, the Bills moved from 14 to 21 and got another 2nd because the Bucs wanted Kenyatta Walker. They should have taken Hutchinson mind you, but they were willing to reach for a guy who they thought could play LT.

 

In short, I will speculate that the Bills are in the drivers seat in terms of trading down. Historically, Dick Levy doesn't do this. He would rather trade up, and waste picks on defensive backs. Sadly, there is no reason not to expect more of the same.

What do you think will happen if I may ask?

[TC in St. Louis]

What is this "trade down" that you speak of? These Bills trade up for marginal talent that couldve been had at their original spots - Posluszny, McCargo. The best thing that you can do in the draft, is stand pat in rounds 1-3, because there is no such thing as "cant miss" prospects. In these last two drafts alone, with our multiple 3rd round picks, we shouldve came out with at least 8 players picked in rounds 1-3 rather than the 6 chosen. Instead, we ignored requests to trade down and instead traded up to draft marginal talent. THAT is why these Bills have not been to the playoffs in this millenium...

 

I agree. I don't understand how the Bills could sit there with the rights to Leinart and Cutler in their laps, and grab Donte Whitner at #8. They looked like buffoons at the time, and I don't think Whitner has played up to the expectations of the 8th pick in the entire draft.

 

I remember one year the Rams had the last pick in the first round, and Washington had the next pick. Everybody in the universe knew that the Skins coveted Patrick Ramsey, and they were desperate to pick him. The Rams could've called the Skins and told them "we're taking Ramsey unless you give us an extra 3rd round pick" but they instead chose Robert Thomas, a mediocre LB from UCLA. They could've gotten Thomas with the Redskins pick, and had a extra pick.

 

Teams should get stockbrokers to handle these transactions. Picks are commodities.

 

I do believe these guys target individuals, and to a certain extent I think I agree with making trades to get the players they want. However, 2 of the 3 trade-ups were duds (Losman and McCargo....jury still out on McCargo).

 

If they do a 180 and trade down with somebody looking for a specific player, they get the extra picks....that's the way Jimmie Johnson used to handle things in Miami, just as he was turning that franchise into a joke.

[Magox]

I wouldn't be looking to trade down. If someone offers us something for the "right price" then I'd be open to it. If you look to trade down as opposed to some one wanting to trade up, most likely you will get more in return. But I have to disagree with the orignal poster, If Brown, Orapko, Curry or Raji are available I wouldnt trade down unless it was for something ridiculous.

[Dawgg]

I agree. I don't understand how the Bills could sit there with the rights to Leinart and Cutler in their laps, and grab Donte Whitner at #8. They looked like buffoons at the time, and I don't think Whitner has played up to the expectations of the 8th pick in the entire draft.

 

I remember one year the Rams had the last pick in the first round, and Washington had the next pick. Everybody in the universe knew that the Skins coveted Patrick Ramsey, and they were desperate to pick him. The Rams could've called the Skins and told them "we're taking Ramsey unless you give us an extra 3rd round pick" but they instead chose Robert Thomas, a mediocre LB from UCLA. They could've gotten Thomas with the Redskins pick, and had a extra pick.

 

Teams should get stockbrokers to handle these transactions. Picks are commodities.

 

I do believe these guys target individuals, and to a certain extent I think I agree with making trades to get the players they want. However, 2 of the 3 trade-ups were duds (Losman and McCargo....jury still out on McCargo).

 

If they do a 180 and trade down with somebody looking for a specific player, they get the extra picks....that's the way Jimmie Johnson used to handle things in Miami, just as he was turning that franchise into a joke.

 

Exactly.

 

The Bills understood this when Donahoe was at the helm. This front office has absolutely no clue.

[BillsVet]

I'm a big advocate of reading "The Genius" about Bill Walsh's tenure as HC of the 49ers by David Harris. Just the parts about how he approched draft day make the book worth reading for any serious NFL fan. In 86, Walsh correctly surmised that the draft didn't offer premium talent, but began the process of trading down. Eddie DeBartolo joked that Walsh would not stop until he had every pick in the 10th round.

 

But Walsh found plenty of talent to win those 2 SB's in 89 and 90. That 86 draft included FB Tom Rathman, CB Tim McKyer, WR John Taylor, DE Charles Haley, LOT Steve Wallace, DT Kevin Fagan, and DB Don Griffin. And all this without a 1st rounder.

 

Having the savvy to read the tea leaves is needed in Buffalo. Walsh rarely missed on picks, and I think this draft could shape up to be one that trading down is the best option. Remember, the 11th overall pick since 01 has resulted in the following players being drafted: Freeney (02), Trufant (03), Roethlisberger (04), Demarcus Ware (05), Cutler (06), P. Willis (07), and McKelvin (08)

[silvermike]

I remember one year the Rams had the last pick in the first round, and Washington had the next pick. Everybody in the universe knew that the Skins coveted Patrick Ramsey, and they were desperate to pick him. The Rams could've called the Skins and told them "we're taking Ramsey unless you give us an extra 3rd round pick" but they instead chose Robert Thomas, a mediocre LB from UCLA. They could've gotten Thomas with the Redskins pick, and had a extra pick.

 

Well, unless the Skins called their bluff and then the Rams would have to double down and spend their first round pick on a QB or just let it go. They had Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger, so Ramsey would have been a third stringer and a total waste of a pick. They could threaten all they wanted, but I'm guessing the Redskins would never have believed them.

[Beerball]

Having the savvy to read the tea leaves is needed in Buffalo.

Aye, there's the rub.

[Pete]

I would always trade down and get more picks- unless there was zero depth in a draft class

[BuffaloBill]

Having the savvy to read the tea leaves is needed in Buffalo. Walsh rarely missed on picks, and I think this draft could shape up to be one that trading down is the best option. Remember, the 11th overall pick since 01 has resulted in the following players being drafted: Freeney (02), Trufant (03), Roethlisberger (04), Demarcus Ware (05), Cutler (06), P. Willis (07), and McKelvin (08)

 

 

Pretty good company - assuming Mckelvin keeps on the track he is on - The one exception appears to be Trufant

[lets_go_bills]

There's always the chance to trade down. It all hinges on how the draft unfolds and whether there's a guy who has either fallen or won't make it past another team.

[Alphadawg7]

I remember one year the Rams had the last pick in the first round, and Washington had the next pick. Everybody in the universe knew that the Skins coveted Patrick Ramsey, and they were desperate to pick him.

 

First of all, not one person in the universe EVER truly knows what one teams war room truly wants. Do you even know how much disinformation is put out for this very reason? Heck, ESPN had been reporting that Shannahan was close to signing in KC, yet as the story developed and was revealed the two had NEVER even spoke about it and Shannahan (as he said before) again stated he wont be coaching this next year.

 

Second, just because a team wants a player, doesnt mean there isnt another player they want almost as bad. So, how do you know that the Skins were not eyeing both Ramsey and someone else? If this was this case, why would they trade up? Maybe the guy they are eyeing is the same guy the Rams picked...so why would the Rams risk trading down? How do you know that the Skins were not trying to entice the Rams to trade down so they can get the guy the Rams were going to take?

 

Third, just because a trade does not happen does NOT mean a trade wasnt attempted. I swear, some fans think everything that goes on in those rooms is reported to the media and that whatever is mentioned to the media is absolute truth. I would bet that less than 20% of what really is going on between teams in terms of trade discussions is ever even disclosed. I would say its safe to say that maybe at best the info given to the public is less than 40% accurate too.

 

Bottom line, no one really knows what is going on, who a team truly covets or how bad, etc, etc. So just because the Bills dont trade down, doesnt mean they didnt explore it. In fact, it's pretty safe to say that there isnt a team in football that doesnt explore these ideas, especially the Bills, who have shown the tendency to move both up and down in recent drafts.

[BillsVet]

Bottom line, no one really knows what is going on, who a team truly covets or how bad, etc, etc. So just because the Bills dont trade down, doesnt mean they didnt explore it. In fact, it's pretty safe to say that there isnt a team in football that doesnt explore these ideas, especially the Bills, who have shown the tendency to move both up and down in recent drafts.

 

Does that mean that Matt Cassel's mother didn't know what was happening with her son?

 

She wasn't an insider either.

 

I drive a Dodge Stratus BTW.

[Alphadawg7]

Does that mean that Matt Cassel's mother didn't know what was happening with her son?

 

She wasn't an insider either.

 

I drive a Dodge Stratus BTW.

 

lol...funny (I actually laughed), but if tie it in to the post above, kind of a lame come back...

 

Post above talks about the media not knowing whats going on inside, only the people involved...in this case about Cassel and his mom, Cassel would be one of the inside people knowing first hand whats going on...So if Cassel is on the inside, by default his mom is too given how close they are. What he knows, she knows in other words...

[C.Biscuit97]

What is this "trade down" that you speak of? These Bills trade up for marginal talent that couldve been had at their original spots - Posluszny, McCargo. The best thing that you can do in the draft, is stand pat in rounds 1-3, because there is no such thing as "cant miss" prospects. In these last two drafts alone, with our multiple 3rd round picks, we shouldve came out with at least 8 players picked in rounds 1-3 rather than the 6 chosen. Instead, we ignored requests to trade down and instead traded up to draft marginal talent. THAT is why these Bills have not been to the playoffs in this millenium...

 

 

Stop. You have absolutely no idea what a NFL team was going to do. A lot of reports had the Giants targeting McCargo. I have no problem with the Bills trading up to get a player they want. The problem is if they take the wrong guy, which McCargo was. And it is incredibly dumb to write off Poz in what was his essentially his rookie year and helped the defense improved from 30th to 14th.

 

This is the perfect draft to trade down in because it is rich with the Bills needs. But as others have mentioned, it is hard to find a trade partner. I would love to see something where we can pick up an extra 2nd where we can have a good target on 3 of our 4 major needs (DE, TE, C, DT).