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Bush wins it


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Well - 2 days before the election and the most accurate poll in the country has Bush up by 5% ... his largest lead in this election since the Republican Convention.

 

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/polls/index.html

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Gallup also had Bush by 13 points over Gore in late october in 2000.

 

I'd hesitate using the term "most accurate poll in the country" when discussing them, given thier track record.

 

It's too close to call, that's the most logical reaction to the sea of polling data.

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Figuring out which poll is the most accurate is like figuring out which turd smells the best. The sample sizes are too small and of course you're going to have changes whether you are calling people during the week or on Sunday nights. I read somewhere that the polling companies can only get 1 in 5 people to take their polls in some instances. So basically what we're looking at is a small sample of lonely people who like spending 30 minutes on the phone with a complete stranger.

 

Our dumbass media either doesn't understand statistics or just pretends they don't so they can report each poll like things are changing significantly from day to day.

 

I'm still trying to wrap my head around the sentence "Undecideds are split between Bush and Kerry." If that is true, then how are they 'undecided'? And who the hell is undecided the day before the election?

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Figuring out which poll is the most accurate is like figuring out which turd smells the best.  The sample sizes are too small and of course you're going to have changes whether you are calling people during the week or on Sunday nights.  I read somewhere that the polling companies can only get 1 in 5 people to take their polls in some instances.  So basically what we're looking at is a small sample of lonely people who like spending 30 minutes on the phone with a complete stranger. 

 

Our dumbass media either doesn't understand statistics or just pretends they don't so they can report each poll like things are changing significantly from day to day. 

 

I'm still trying to wrap my head around the sentence "Undecideds are split between Bush and Kerry."  If that is true, then how are they 'undecided'?  And who the hell is undecided the day before the election?

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This is a damn good post. Dead nuts on. Now please post something stupid about Kerry so I can hate you again. :)

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