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Why NE is gonna franchise Cassel - read this


Alphadawg7

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Ok, so I worked with Matt Cassels mom this season on the TV show "My own worst enemy" starring Chistian Slater...it was cancelled though...She is a very nice lady and proud mom (all her sons are pro athletes). It was a lot of fun going through the season with her, she is great.

 

Anyway, she called me and told me she thought I should hear something knowing I was a Bills fan that she thought I would find interesting. NE is planning on franchising Cassel because they do NOT want him to go into the division, specifically the Buffalo Bills because NE knew we had a very strong interest in Cassel and he was on the top of our target list. She said the Bills were going to offer him a 3 year contract with a big signing bonus.

 

They decidied to franchise him to keep him out of Buffalo specifically and told him they would explore trade scenarios OUTSIDE the division if both him and Brady are healthy going into next season. She did not indicate to me WHO would be the topic of trade scenarios in the situation, Brady or Cassel, but my impression was they were referring to trade scenarios involving her son Cassel, but who knows.

 

So, the most interesting part of this for me is the obvious...how much (or how little) faith do the Bills have in Trent despite what they say pubilcly and do you think this opens up the possibility of the Bills doing something not really expected right now and going with a QB on the first day of the draft, maybe even at #11 if Sanchez falls? Or maybe even look to make a big play in FA or on the trade market to bring in a QB to compete with Trent as opposed to just a backup?

 

The whole AFC east would have interest in him with the uncertainty of Favres return and his ancient-ness. Pennington stays healthy for a whole season once every six years. I like Trent I think he can be a very good QB in this league but he is a fragile butterfly and we need a more durable qb if we are going to have Duke Preston's on our oline.

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.......He was average at best through the 5-1 start.......

I'm constantly amazed that people expect our players to be the top players all of the time.....and if they aren't.....they are bad players.

 

I'm not sold on TE(particularly after his performance in the Browns game).......but to say his start to the season was average at best is absolutely ridiculous.

He was 5-0 through those games.

He had a QBR of 98.8

Completion % of 69.7

YPA of 7.95

TD% of 3.3

INT% of 1.3

 

Extrapolated to a full season....

16-0

QBR - 2nd

Completion % - 1st

YPA - 4th

TD% - 23rd

INT% - 3rd

 

Argue as much as you like that his regression casts grave doubts on whether he can become a top NFL QB......argue that he is injury prone......argue that he does not seem to be able to take the game by the throat.......but please don't even imply that his performance in the 1st 6 games was anything short of 'good'.

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I'm constantly amazed that people expect our players to be the top players all of the time.....and if they aren't.....they are bad players.

 

I'm not sold on TE(particularly after his performance in the Browns game).......but to say his start to the season was average at best is absolutely ridiculous.

He was 5-0 through those games.

He had a QBR of 98.8

Completion % of 69.7

YPA of 7.95

TD% of 3.3

INT% of 1.3

 

Extrapolated to a full season....

16-0

QBR - 2nd

Completion % - 1st

YPA - 4th

TD% - 23rd

INT% - 3rd

 

Argue as much as you like that his regression casts grave doubts on whether he can become a top NFL QB......argue that he is injury prone......argue that he does not seem to be able to take the game by the throat.......but please don't even imply that his performance in the 1st 6 games was anything short of 'good'.

 

Fair argument, however, those stats dont illustrate the vast difference in his QB rating during the first half or even the first 3 quarters of most those games from the fourth quarter. When I said he was average, I am grading his overall performance...never did he become dominant in those games...never did he put fear in anyone...

 

And his completion percentage and INT ratio is misleading because he makes SO MANY safe short throws that DONT continue drives. So yes, his completion percentage looks good and his TD to INT ratio looks good, but truthfully, he was not very affectvie through large parts of those games.

 

Thats like saying Shaquile Oneal is a great shooter becuase his FG percentage is so high...its so high because of his high amount of high percentage short shots...Trent's reluctance to try and push the ball down field greatly inflates his comp. percentage...and guess what that does? It inflates your QB passer rating too...again, very misleading as he was no where near as affective as the stats show and he was doing against teams with a combined .300 or so winning percentage and some of the worst pass defenses in the league...

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If the Cheatriots franchise Cassel, and they almost surely will since Brady isn't even close to being ready to return, and teams need to designate a franchise player by the end of February, they won't be able to trade him. His agent will be forced by the NFLPA to look for a deal averaging close to the franchise tag ($14.5M a year), a huge signing bonus, and the Cheatriots will want a 1st rounder.

 

That being said, I doubt they even look to trade him because Brady's future is in serious doubt. The fact that the franchise tag keeps Cassel away from the other AFC East teams is a by-product.

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Fair argument, however, those stats dont illustrate the vast difference in his QB rating during the first half or even the first 3 quarters of most those games from the fourth quarter. When I said he was average, I am grading his overall performance...never did he become dominant in those games...never did he put fear in anyone...

Actually I was grading his overall performance. His overall performance includes his 4th Q stats which put it up well above average.

His 4th quarter stats:

31-38-397-3-0

QBR: 139.9

 

A QB who excels in the 4th quarter is surely something of value.....and I'd say that he became dominant in the 4th quarter over those 5 games.

 

His 1st-3rd quarter stats:

75-114-812-2-2

QBR: 85.1

 

His performance over the first 3 quarters in those 5 games may not have been stellar......but was certainly solid.

 

It is only unrealistic expectations that could possibly have somebody looking at his performance over that period & come away with 'below average' as a conclusion. What is a realistic expectation from a QB......let alone a 2nd year player? Solid play in the first 3 quarters with excellence in the last.

 

And his completion percentage and INT ratio is misleading because he makes SO MANY safe short throws that DONT continue drives. So yes, his completion percentage looks good and his TD to INT ratio looks good, but truthfully, he was not very affectvie through large parts of those games.

The average passing for 1st downs in the league is about 11 per game. Over the 5 games TE passed for over 11.5 1st downs a game(continuing drives). Warner today passed for 13.

 

You speak as if you expect continual perfection from players. Most players will have bad days.....bad patches.....bad throws.....bad series. It is the combined statistics which give an indicator to how well a player is doing overall.

 

Ignoring TEs 4th quarter stats......if he can emulate his play in those 5 games & learn to make/complete a few extra shots down field each game.......I'd be more than happy with that at the QB position.

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Actually I was grading his overall performance. His overall performance includes his 4th Q stats which put it up well above average.

His 4th quarter stats:

31-38-397-3-0

QBR: 139.9

 

A QB who excels in the 4th quarter is surely something of value.....and I'd say that he became dominant in the 4th quarter over those 5 games.

 

His 1st-3rd quarter stats:

75-114-812-2-2

QBR: 85.1

 

His performance over the first 3 quarters in those 5 games may not have been stellar......but was certainly solid.

 

It is only unrealistic expectations that could possibly have somebody looking at his performance over that period & come away with 'below average' as a conclusion. What is a realistic expectation from a QB......let alone a 2nd year player? Solid play in the first 3 quarters with excellence in the last.

 

 

The average passing for 1st downs in the league is about 11 per game. Over the 5 games TE passed for over 11.5 1st downs a game(continuing drives). Warner today passed for 13.

 

You speak as if you expect continual perfection from players. Most players will have bad days.....bad patches.....bad throws.....bad series. It is the combined statistics which give an indicator to how well a player is doing overall.

 

Ignoring TEs 4th quarter stats......if he can emulate his play in those 5 games & learn to make/complete a few extra shots down field each game.......I'd be more than happy with that at the QB position.

 

You make fair arguments and I am not saying Trent was terrible in the 5-0 stretch by any means. But last I checked, the season was 16 games long plus playoffs, not 5 games. I can pick 5 games too for JP Losman that were great, doesnt mean he can sustain that level of play.

 

Regardless of your numbers you want to break down, his affectiveness in those games was average in large chunks of those games, not a series or two, but large chunks where he was just ok to not bad. In the second half of the season, his play was terrible and he often struggled even against marginal teams...

 

Look, I am not denying he hasnt shown promise, and I would like to be able to see him turn into a good QB. My only argument is that those 5 games were not good enough to overlook how bad the rest were. His overall body of work has left me with lots of questions and I am greatly concerned about his regression and timid play in the second half of the year...not to mention how easy he gets hurt.

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And his completion percentage and INT ratio is misleading because he makes SO MANY safe short throws that DONT continue drives. So yes, his completion percentage looks good and his TD to INT ratio looks good, but truthfully, he was not very affectvie through large parts of those games.

.....and here is an interesting comparison for everyone who 'sees' how our players play and are convinced that our guys suck.....while other players around the league are actually great.

 

Let's compare our crappy QB(who never throws the ball down field to continue drives).....who plays behind our terrible line.....with our awful WRs & TEs.....and our pathetic play-calling.....

.....to Cassel.....who is going to be franchised.....plays behind the great Pats line.....throws balls to their probowl WRs.....has expert play-calling......and cheating on his side.

 

% of passes thrown....

Behind the line:

Cassel: 18.4%

Edwards: 17.9%

 

1-10 yards

Cassel: 51.7%

Edwards: 54%

 

11-20 yards

Cassel: 22.5%

Edwards: 20.6%

 

21-30 yards

Cassel: 3.5%

Edwards: 5.1%

 

31-40 yards

Cassel: 2.7%

Edwards: 2.1%

 

41+ yards

Cassel: 1.1%

Edwards: 0.3%

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(I am editing this post to hopefully help reduce some of the pointless responses)

 

I was informed today that by someone close to the Matt Cassel situaton, that NE is franchising Matt Cassel because of concerns about him going to someone in the division, including Buffalo as there is (or was) apparent strong interest in Matt Cassel from the Buffalo Bills.

 

They decidied to franchise him to keep him out of the division, including Buffalo, and told him they would explore trade scenarios OUTSIDE the division if both him and Brady are healthy going into next season. It was not indicated to me WHO would be the topic of trade scenarios in the situation, Brady or Cassel, but my impression was they were referring to trade scenarios involving Matt Cassel, but who knows.

 

So, the most interesting part of this for me is the obvious...how much (or how little) faith do the Bills have in Trent despite what they say pubilcly and do you think this opens up the possibility of the Bills doing something not really expected right now and going with a QB on the first day of the draft, maybe even at #11 if Sanchez falls? Or maybe even look to make a big play in FA or on the trade market to bring in a QB to compete with Trent as opposed to just a backup?

i dont believe your source

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You make fair arguments and I am not saying Trent was terrible in the 5-0 stretch by any means. But last I checked, the season was 16 games long plus playoffs, not 5 games. I can pick 5 games too for JP Losman that were great, doesnt mean he can sustain that level of play.

 

Regardless of your numbers you want to break down, his affectiveness in those games was average in large chunks of those games, not a series or two, but large chunks where he was just ok to not bad. In the second half of the season, his play was terrible and he often struggled even against marginal teams...

 

Look, I am not denying he hasnt shown promise, and I would like to be able to see him turn into a good QB. My only argument is that those 5 games were not good enough to overlook how bad the rest were. His overall body of work has left me with lots of questions and I am greatly concerned about his regression and timid play in the second half of the year...not to mention how easy he gets hurt.

My response to you initially was because of your statement....."He was average at best through the 5-1 start."

I guess you accept that as mis-stated <_<

 

I totally agree that his regression after those first 5 games was extremely concerning.......but I wouldn't personally be throwing him away at this point nor spending large resources on replacing him until we know for sure what we have. As I have shown above(in a similar manner to your thread regarding questions on Gruden), Cassel has probably shown little more than Edwards so far in his career......I certainly wouldn't be considering him a savior at this point in his career.

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Heres the real reason and its simple.

 

Theyre gonna trade Brady...

 

U heard it here 1st about a month ago..

No they aren't. If they're even looking to trade Brady, teams will know that his knee is shot and he'll never be the same player he was.

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No, it was Buffalo, i followed the limo and him and Gruden got out to go eat wings at Duffs. Cassell's cousin's mom's daughters roommate works there and said that Buffalo really wanted him...so he came in to check it out

I heard the same thing while hanging out at my beach bure in Bora Bora - Cassell really wanted to check out Buffalo 'cause Jauron's so highly regarded as a top coach by NFL insiders.

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My response to you initially was because of your statement....."He was average at best through the 5-1 start."

I guess you accept that as mis-stated <_<

 

I totally agree that his regression after those first 5 games was extremely concerning.......but I wouldn't personally be throwing him away at this point nor spending large resources on replacing him until we know for sure what we have. As I have shown above(in a similar manner to your thread regarding questions on Gruden), Cassel has probably shown little more than Edwards so far in his career......I certainly wouldn't be considering him a savior at this point in his career.

 

 

Fair enough...saying average at best was probably an understatement, I concede that. I was only illustrating that his performance for me wasn't overwhelming during that 5-0 to the point his regression can be looked at as a rough patch. To me hasnt shown me enough that says he can be anything better than say an ok starter in this league (assuming he can stay healthy) when you look at his total body of work to this point. Has he shown promise? Absolutely! Has he also shown tendency's that plague bad QBs in this league, Absolutely. So the jury is still out on him, but I would refrain from saying that our QB position is solid right now and lock him in as our QB of the future.

 

And I agree with about Cassel...I am not sold on him myself and I dont want to see big money thrown on him. People seem to confuse me posting the Bills possible interest in him as somehow I am endorsing that interest and Matt Cassel which couldnt be further from the truth. To me, Cassel has queston marks too, and I am not sure he would be the answer and I dont want us to throw big money at him either.

 

That being said, at this current point, our QB position is a bigger need now than it was last year given the lack of backup behind our injury prone starter and our starters very clear regression. People can post whatever paper statisitics they want, but you can not argue about his reluctance to let the ball go over in the second half of the season, his shaken confidence, and his inability to see the field and find open recievers during that stretch. He even became turnover prone...

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I heard the same thing while hanging out at my beach bure in Bora Bora - Cassell really wanted to check out Buffalo 'cause Jauron's so highly regarded as a top coach by NFL insiders.

 

Way to keep your streak alive of posts with out a single shred of merit or relevance...dont forget to post the Dike Leach interview on your next post otherwise people will forget about your man crush on him <_<

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