Semi-academic discussion of needs 4 developing QB

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Cliffnotes Bgin: Sorry folks no cliffnotes for this one as this semi-academic exploration is all thery that hangs together. It is not for the faint of heart so if you or your boss can't deal with you considering these ramblings ski it. Cliffnotes end.

 

I call this thread semi-academic becausewith the production problems we have at QB, no discussion of this position can be truly theoretical as individual opinions about what JP needs to develop into the Bills QB of the future all Bills fans want colors this exploration.

 

In addition to concerns about the Bills future which strike me as wholely legitimate, folks biases about QB development driven by their doap opera love or hatred for Bledsoe completey obscures a football discussion of this issue.

 

Nevertheless, I think there are a lot of great football minds on this board (in addition to those transfixed by their love or hatred of Bledsoe) and I am curious what folks think about what it takes to develop a contributing NFL pro QB.

 

There are a number of things folks have spouted as though they are undebatable truisms which simply strike me as wrong when one looks at the actual occurences in the NFL. These include:

 

1. A 1st round pick must pay off in his first year or it was a bad pick by the team.

 

This truism has been said by many but it is just plain wrong. There are just too many cases of players who ended up having great careers or who ended up being judged great contributors to the team that chose them who either did not play at all their first year as they learned the game or simply sucked when they played. One need look no further than the Bills Eric Moulds who almost universally is judged as the best athlete on this team and has hadsome very productive years as a Bill but simply did nothing as a player intially on this squad. The idea that a non productive 1st round picked player his first year and actually even several years into his career in some cases is simply a bust in all cases does not correspond to the reality.

 

2. A 1st round QB must play some his first year to learn the game so he can contribute his second year.

 

The fact that a first round drafted player need not even play his first year and still turn out to be a great pick is even more true when one is talking about QBs. In an oversystematized NFL, these players simply have to learn the game in order to be productive pros. However, they need not play to do this learning and become productive. Even in recent history one need only observe that Michael Vick and Chad Pennington sat out all or most of their rookie years and came in as starters their second year and led their teams to the playoffs. In our particular case I would love to see JP start and lead us to victory after victory. However. I certainly don't expect or demand this even though I hope it is true. I can easily see JP sitting all this year and it being the best thing for his development as a Bill. I do not see him sitting this year as mandating that 2005 will be a building with no contribution year for him. I suspect playing will be good for his development, but mop-up duty would probably be fine for simply developing him.

 

3. A player must play to develop the esentials to be a contributing NFL player (one poster stated the stuff he will learn watching and practicing are at most 20% of what he needs).

 

I agree with this generally, but also feel that playing is only one essential part of the equation for the NFL QB. For JP in particular, the things he needs to learn that will only come from playing strike me as actually less of a focus of his needs that the other things he MUST ALSO learn in order to be a contributor.

 

Talking about the specifics of our case, these are the things I see JP needing (I suspect I am missing some big issues here so other contributions of ideas from posters are appreciated), my guesstimate of the percentages of the total learning he will need to do to become a contributing Bills QB, and where he will get this knowledge:

 

1. JP must learn to play at NFL speeds and against NFL opponents (30%) - playing in games in the regular and pre-season: My sense is that from what I have seen JP is quite the athlete. His own natural ability and athleticism, will and has allowed him to adjust quite well to playing against a team made up of players who are as fast and as big as any of his past opponents. This learning will mainly come playing in real games, but he got a real dose of this in his brief preseason and scrimmage appearances in terms of facing opponents who were really after him and in praactice against fellow Bills he gets a real does of the speed and size.

 

Unfortunately he probably learned a valuable lesson from Vincent that one can never be too careful in being prepared for a hit. Still, I think he wil profi from playing real games and practicing against the #1 Bills D because he will get to see stuff he has seen from the booth and on paper over the centers head. Still from what I have seen in pre-season and on college highlight tapes I am less worried about the extras he will get from playing which he must get because he brings a lot to the table interms of some of the moves he has shown and hits he has taken.

 

2. JP must learn NFL offenses and defenses (30%)- This is one of the biggest things for any rookie and separates them from the vets. Part of this will come from the item above of his playing real games and seeing Ds over the center's butt. The piece I am referring to here is JP developing an NFL sense of the Bills playbook, what MM/Clements are trying to do, and perhaps most important knowing what opponents are tyring to do to stop the Bills O and where there efforts leave them vulnerable. JPs injury may be the best thing that could have happened to his development if he used the time to sit in the booth and really study opponents and the NFL way from above without the distraction of making himself ready to lead in case on bizarre injuries, horsing around on the sidelines and most important getting Sam Wyche to download to him why teams did what they did in particular cases. His development in this area may have greatly be accelerated because there is no chance of hom playing with hisinjury.

 

3. JP must get his mechanics down in a correct and repetitive fashion (20%)- I hope this is not a big issue, but certainly one ofthe things he has to do to survive and make plays at Tulane was run for his life as their blocking broke down, and often make a pass anyway he could even if it involved throwing off-balance or off the wrong foot. Putting up floaters might have worked in college against opponents who could not make plays like the biiger faster pro players or who did not know the game as well so they were not even a position to make a play. However, if he plays in the pros using things which may have suceeded in college they will eat huim for lunch.

 

Another thing about the NFL is that it is oversystematized in my view and coaches run complex schemes which require players to run plays, turn for catches, male passes, etvetera the same way everytime, Players build chemistry with each other because they begin to anticipate and learn the variations which a player will make on a given play. However, it all starts with repetition and sameness and builds from there. JP suceeded by free-lancing in college behind a porous line. In th pros he will have to minimize free-lancing ans simply make plays like his colleagues expect him to make them or with variations they begin to understand and expect from him and which he begins to understand and expect about them. I only assign this number so high because JP will need to show in practice alone with Wyche, then with a ball boy, then with the scrub players and back-up receivers and finally with the starters and back-ups that his mechanics are good and they are predictable.

 

4. JP will have to show an ability to lead through success and being a good teammate (10%)- Again this is a lesser area of concern for me because JP shows all the signs of impressing folks with his leadership abilities based in his athletcisim which apparently border on a cockiness some people find to be negative. The main thing here is that he needs to be successful and a good athlete as what some take for arrogance becomes him being a solid guy IF there is good production and a winning record to accompany whatever attitude he has. His injury at the hands of Vincent was interesting because I get some impression that it may have occured because he took a little bit of advantage from the fact QBs in practice are wearing a "can't hit me" vest. He ran with the ball or took advntage of the hands off policy and got popped by a vet in part to take him downm a notch. As it happened this lesson ended up with Vincent hurting a teammate which is not good. If thiswas the case, I hope that JP has internalized lessons from this which have appropriately cooled his jets and not made him gunshy or caused any crisis on the team.

 

At any rate I think JP will develop a lot by playing the game (30-40%) but the majority of what he needs will actually come from the sidelines and practice (50% or more). Thes percentages are squishy and there are intiail facets of the game which best come off the field and these are finished off by filled out on the field.

 

It is to be hoped that his enforced sitting time was well used by him to increase the effectiveness of future on field play. However, as I have said, it would not be unreasonable to see virtually of this year be beneficially spent on the bech in terms of his development. Folks may be so sick of Drew that they will benefit from seeing him lay. However, what is good for us in terms of entertainment and good for the Bills in terms of him becoming a contributor are two different things,

[stuckincincy]

I'm pretty sure that FFS doesn't frequent the taverns. Nobody has that much blood to lose...

[Gavin in Va Beach]

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz....huh...wha....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[JinVA]

I would say most of your post is accurate (not sure on the %'s however), but what often gets left off when JP is brought up is that right from the start the Bills staff has stated that JP was very immature and would be a 2 to 3 year project. I'm sure most of them also saw Bledsoe as the starter for at least the next two years.

I'm all about JP starting but I have a feeling we will only see his potential his first 12-15 games as a starter.

[BillnutinHouston]

JPs injury may be the best thing that could have happened to his development if he used the time to sit in the booth and really study opponents and the NFL way from above without the distraction of making himself ready to lead in case on bizarre injuries, horsing around on the sidelines and most important getting Sam Wyche to download to him why teams did what they did in particular cases.  His development in this area may have greatly be accelerated because there is no chance of hom playing with hisinjury.

 

91584[/snapback]

 

What a pain in the a$$ it was to get this to a manageable quote! I hope I'm rewarded with an answer to the following questions somewhere down the line:

 

Did JP sit in the booth next to Wyche during his injury, and are players even allowed to?

 

PS FSS, write so people will want to read it, otherwise what's the point?

[Rico]

1. A 1st round pick must pay off in his first year or it was a bad pick by the team.

Don't agree.

 

2. A 1st round QB must play some his first year to learn the game so he can contribute his second year.

Not necessarily, but it helps.

 

3. A player must play to develop the esentials to be a contributing NFL player.

Not necessarily in every case, but it helps.

 

1. JP must learn to play at NFL speeds and against NFL opponents

Agreed.

 

2. JP must learn NFL offenses and defenses.

Agreed.

 

3. JP must get his mechanics down in a correct and repetitive fashion

Agreed.

 

4. JP will have to show an ability to lead through success and being a good teammate

Agreed.

 

All your points are valid.

But TD re-signed Drew.

And TD further compounded the situation by not signing an experienced QB in training camp to have ready to take over in the event that Drew tanked again.

 

Desperate times call for desperate measures,

and it sure looks like Drew is not capable of being an NFL QB anymore,

he is done.

Matthews is experienced, let's see what he can do.

And as soon as JP is healthy, he needs to see some action.

Had Drew been able to still compete, TD could have afforded to wait.

Now, MM must play the hand that TD has dealt him.

 

Again,

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I would say most of your post is accurate (not sure on the %'s however), but what often gets left off when JP is brought up is that right from the start the Bills staff has stated that JP was very immature and would be a 2 to 3 year project.  I'm sure most of them also saw Bledsoe as the starter for at least the next two years.

I'm all about JP starting but I have a feeling we will only see his potential his first 12-15 games as a starter.

91655[/snapback]

 

 

I haven't really heard much open talk of JP as a 2-3 year peoject, though certainly that was the hope by TD with hiss resigning of B;edsoe to a deal that forces us of him for this year, and makes it more doable from a cap perspective to have him at least as a back-up next year getting to a quite manageable cut after June 1, 2006.

 

As it stands the Bills will have to bite the bullet with an undesirable but manageable cut of him in June of 2005. Still i think the hope was all along that JP would at least apply pressure to start next season.

 

As it is the desperation of many Bills fans creates pressure on him to start seriously in 05. By any logical estimation this is way too soon in hios development.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

PS FSS, write so people will want to read it, otherwise what's the point?

91661[/snapback]

 

 

I actually am quite iterested in folks serious thoughts about what it takes to develop as an NFL QB. However, i will admit that like most of my posts, I actually write because it helps me think out issues and I really do write for myself. Replies are certainly desirable but are optional from my perspective and my satisfaction is not dependent on them.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

1. A 1st round pick must pay off in his first year or it was a bad pick by the team.

Don't agree.

 

2. A 1st round QB must play some his first year to learn the game so he can contribute his second year.

Not necessarily, but it helps.

 

3. A player must play to develop the esentials to be a contributing NFL player.

Not necessarily in every case, but it helps.

 

1. JP must learn to play at NFL speeds and against NFL opponents

Agreed.

 

2. JP must learn NFL offenses and defenses.

Agreed.

 

3. JP must get his mechanics down in a correct and repetitive fashion

Agreed.

 

4. JP will have to show an ability to lead through success and being a good teammate

Agreed.

 

All your points are valid.

But TD re-signed Drew.

And TD further compounded the situation by not signing an experienced QB in training camp to have ready to take over in the event that Drew tanked again.

 

Desperate times call for desperate measures,

and it sure looks like Drew is not capable of being an NFL QB anymore,

he is done.

Matthews is experienced, let's see what he can do.

And as soon as JP is healthy, he needs to see some action.

Had Drew been able to still compete, TD could have afforded to wait.

Now, MM must play the hand that TD has dealt him.

 

Again,

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

91704[/snapback]

 

 

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I guess I'm not amd I hope the Bills do not see this and are not reactingto this as being desperate times, In my mind, desperation causes teams to make mistakes.

 

Many of the Bills problems over the years strike me as happening because of desperation caused by their handling of the QB slot and this desperation has led to a number of bad moves which still haunt us today.

 

Error #1: The Bills surprised me by not choosing a QB of the future to replace Jim Kelly in the 1993 draft.

 

Desperation effect #1: They overeached for Todd Collins spending a 2nd on him in the 1994 draft and recognizing that Kelly was headed downhill they started him in the final game of his rookie season and he simply was not ready to face pro competition.

 

Error #2: RWS promised Jimbo he would take care of him by resigning him to a good contract after the 96 season and was forced to renege on this offer when Jimbo proved he was done after getting sacked and concussed against Jax.

 

Desperation effect #2: We had to pay Kelly a bribe of a million bucks to walk away and the poor management of Collins development continues as the Bills rushed him along faster than his talent dictated.

 

Error #3: Butler overreached and traded a 3rd rounder for Billy Joe Hobert

 

Desperation effect #3: Hobert was such a bad athlete that he not only went imto a funk when TC beat him out but totally failed to prepare himself to play and when he came into the game he was so bad Marv cuit him.

 

Error #4: The Bills were so bruised by their QB mishaps that they created a horrible situation for the Bills by signing RJ to a huge bonus AFTER they had promised Flutie a fair shot at the starting job (it became clear after giving RJ a huge bonus that he was gonna start). Even worse, the inducement that gave Flutie to sign a cap friendly contract was to agree to roll any incentives he achieved in 98 into his base pay.

 

Desperation effect #4: When RJ went down tio injury and Flutie performed as AJ Smith expected him to, the Bills 88 cap was on the hook for roughly $3 million in achieved incentives plus $3 million in base salary plus $5 million in base pay and prorated bonus for RJ. The Bills had no choice but to resign Flutie to a long term deal because he was clearly the more effective QB of the two and the Bills needed to prorate his new base salary by turning it into bonus.

 

Error #5: I think trading for Bledsoe was a very good move by TD, Before opponent got enough tape on his performance as a Bill he did a great job his first year meriting his Pro Bowl reserve pick. Yhose who claim that the Pats raped us with this deal because BB knew exactly how to exloit him ignore the fact that the performance of this team improved to 8-8 from 3-13 even with these two losses and that the acceleration of the Bledsoe bonus into the Pats cap played a key role in them being unable to sign better quality FAs and cost them the playoffs between 2 SB wins.

 

Bledsoe's play sucked the nest year as the NFL had tons of tape on Bledsoe as a Bill and the NN roadmap on how to beat him. Still if the Bills had simply cut Bledsoe after last year, they would have escaped with a wash for the trade at worst as he was already accelerated into the cap and the Bills would have had no dead space for cutting him.

 

Desperation error #5: Resigning Bledsoe at least was done in the most cap manageable way if his play necessitated a cut. Unfortunately he has been so unproductive this year that a cut of him after June 1, 2005 seems essential to me. The big mistake to compound this error in my mind was not signing a back-up QB who could step in if these events occured as they have. I'd evem take Kordelia over Matthews (and Brown for that matter).

 

Unless JP has really profitted from the time to focus on learning the game which his injury gave him and any mechanical problems he may have are easily solved in the limited practice he has been able to do and will get even though his bone break may be healthy I wouldn't judge his game or pro development from playing as healthy and I think the Bills will be better off sitting him rather than replaying the rushing YC along to failure with Losman out of desperation.

[Rico]

Thanks for the thoughtful response.  I guess I'm not amd I hope the Bills do not see this and are not reactingto this as being desperate times,  In my mind, desperation causes teams to make mistakes.

 

Many of the Bills problems over the years strike me as happening because of desperation caused by their handling of the QB slot and this desperation has led to a number of bad moves which still haunt us today.

 

Error #1:  The Bills surprised me by not choosing a QB of the future to replace Jim Kelly in the 1993 draft.

 

Desperation effect #1: They overeached for Todd Collins spending a 2nd on him in the 1994 draft and recognizing that Kelly was headed downhill they started him in the final game of his rookie season and he simply was not ready to face pro competition.

 

Error #2: RWS promised Jimbo he would take care of him by resigning him to a good contract after the 96 season and was forced to renege on this offer when Jimbo proved he was done after getting sacked and concussed against Jax.

 

Desperation effect #2: We had to pay Kelly a bribe of a million bucks to walk away and the poor management of Collins development continues as the Bills rushed him along faster than his talent dictated.

 

Error #3: Butler overreached and traded a 3rd rounder for Billy Joe Hobert

 

Desperation effect #3: Hobert was such a bad athlete that he not only went imto a funk when TC beat him out but totally failed to prepare himself to play and when he came into the game he was so bad Marv cuit him.

 

Error #4:  The Bills were so bruised by their QB mishaps that they created a horrible situation for the Bills by signing RJ to a huge bonus AFTER they had promised Flutie a fair shot at the starting job (it became clear after giving RJ a huge bonus that he was gonna start).  Even worse, the inducement that gave Flutie to sign a cap friendly contract was to agree to roll any incentives he achieved in 98 into his base pay.

 

Desperation effect #4: When RJ went down tio injury and Flutie performed as AJ Smith expected him to, the Bills 88 cap was on the hook for roughly $3 million in achieved incentives plus $3 million in base salary plus $5 million in base pay and prorated bonus for RJ. The Bills had no choice but to resign Flutie to a long term deal because he was clearly the more effective QB of the two and the Bills needed to prorate his new base salary by turning it into bonus.

 

Error #5: I think trading for Bledsoe was a very good move by TD,  Before opponent got enough tape on his performance as a Bill he did a great job his first year meriting his Pro Bowl reserve pick.  Yhose who claim that the Pats raped us with this deal because BB knew exactly how to exloit him ignore the fact that the performance of this team improved to 8-8 from 3-13 even with these two losses and that the acceleration of the Bledsoe bonus into the Pats cap played a key role in them being unable to sign better quality FAs and cost them the playoffs between 2 SB wins.

 

Bledsoe's play sucked the nest year as the NFL had tons of tape on Bledsoe as a Bill and the NN roadmap on how to beat him.  Still if the Bills had simply cut Bledsoe after last year, they would have escaped with a wash for the trade at worst as he was already accelerated into the cap and the Bills would have had no dead space for cutting him.

 

Desperation error #5: Resigning Bledsoe at least was done in the most cap manageable way if his play necessitated a cut. Unfortunately he has been so unproductive this year that a cut of him after June 1, 2005 seems essential to me. The big mistake to compound this error in my mind was not signing a back-up QB who could step in if these events occured as they have. I'd evem take Kordelia over Matthews (and Brown for that matter).

 

Unless JP has really profitted from the time to  focus on learning the game which his injury gave him and any mechanical problems he may have are easily solved in the limited practice he has been able to do and will get even though his bone break may be healthy I wouldn't judge his game or pro development from playing as healthy and I think the Bills will be better off sitting him rather than replaying the rushing YC along to failure with Losman out of desperation.

92081[/snapback]

The 5 desperation moves you list all took place in the off-season, and are inexcusable.

Cooler heads must prevail during these times.

 

But the Bills are 1-5 and falling, more than a 3rd of the way thru the season.

IF we are able to play .500 ball the rest of the way, we will match last year's 6-10 record.

Something has to be done to turn the ship around.

 

I truly believe that if Shane Matthews would've started the Ravens game, the Bills would have won. We lost by 14 points. SM wouldn't have thrown 3 of Drew's picks that put 10 points on the board for the Ravens while costing us 6. That looks like a 2-point Bills win to me, and I'm not even considering the TD passes to wide-open Moulds & TH that SM might have made.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

The 5 desperation moves you list all took place in the off-season, and are inexcusable.

Cooler heads must prevail during these times.

 

But the Bills are 1-5 and falling, more than a 3rd of the way thru the season.

IF we are able to play .500 ball the rest of the way, we will match last year's 6-10 record.

Something has to be done to turn the ship around.

 

I truly believe that if Shane Matthews would've started the Ravens game, the Bills would have won. We lost by 14 points. SM wouldn't have thrown 3 of Drew's picks that put 10 points on the board for the Ravens while costing us 6. That looks like a 2-point Bills win to me, and I'm not even considering the TD passes to wide-open Moulds & TH that SM might have made.

92108[/snapback]

 

 

Interesting theory that Matthews would have delivered a win in Balt., but it strikes me as pure theory with little in terms of Matthews performance to indiciate this would be true.

 

Saying that he would not be as bad as Drew is certainly possible as the Drew output was so poor last weekend, but saying that Matthews would not have simply made other mistakes since there is little to indicate he is more than a couch jockey at QB is little more than theory.

 

Also it is true that Bledsoe is inadequate, but simply because he is inadequate does not mean that the OL is great, that our runners are better than the kamikaze Ravens D players or that our receivers would catch the damn ball if you just threw it to them a little softer.

 

I do not argue at all that Bledsoe is good or even adequate in the face of a rush, but I do argue that the Bills have a lot more to overcome offensively than Bledsoe's failings.

 

Matthews might be able to play a Trent Dilfer game but given that this boy was gonna watch this season from the counch except we got hit with two injuries at QB I really doubt he has what it takes to win. If the Bills are going to be so good at other facets of the game that they do not needs a QB to play reasonably they should even be able to win with Bledsoe and his mix of weaknesses and strengths.